THE storms have always been there, but lately, they have grown more vicious and their paths more unpredictable.
This persistent threat is evident in the Philippines’ ranking as the most at-risk nation to climate-related disasters, according to the 2024 World Risk Index-a position it has held for quite some time now.
Consequently, the toll is staggering: over 43 million Filipinos have been displaced between 2014 and 2023, according to the joint report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC).
Nonetheless, these grim figures only hint at a much deeper crisis. Between 1951 and 2010, average temperatures rose by 0.65°C, or about 0.01°C each year. Even nights are no longer cool reprieves, with minimum temperatures having climbed by 1°C.
‘Based on our observational records, extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent,’ Pagasa deputy administrator Marcelino Villafuerte told BusinessMirror. ‘These are the ones causing flooding, and we’ve seen them across several locations in the country.’
Villafuerte, for instance, pointed to an increasing number of tropical cyclones battering the country, particularly Mindanao, between December and February.
But warming doesn’t move in one direction. ‘We have also seen some areas with decreasing annual total rainfall,’ he said. ‘This means the threat or risk associated with drought [in an area] is increasing.’
For his part, Pagasa Zamboanga station chief meteorological officer Rodel Inclan told this newspaper that the shifts, while subtle, are visible. ‘In general observation, we’ve noticed some changes. Not exactly that pronounced, but slight shifts in temperature and rainfall,’ he said.
On paper, the count seems steady: around 20 tropical cyclones still enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility every year. But strength tells a different story. The fiercest storms, which pack winds of 150 kph or more, are striking more frequently, especially during El Niño.
In the Visayas, the state weather bureau recorded an uptick in cyclone passages between 1971 and 2000.
Pagasa’s projections warn of more to come. By this decade and beyond, provinces could face 1°C more heat and up to 25 percent more rainfall, compared with 1971 to 2000 levels.
Through the years
FOR more than three decades, the Philippines has tried to match science with statecraft.
The country’s climate journey can be traced back to the early 1990s, when it joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This came as a pledge to root its policies in science and shared responsibility.
What followed was a series of shifting blueprints, each administration for the last 20 years layering its own response to a crisis that refuses to wait.
The presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo took a decisive step with the passage of the Climate Change Act in 2009, which created the Climate Change Commission under the Office of the President.
It marked the country’s first formal climate framework, linking adaptation with disaster preparedness, renewable energy, and ecosystem protection.
Her term, however, saw Typhoon Ondoy in 2009, whose record-breaking rains flooded Metro
Manila and nearby provinces, killing hundreds and exposing the capital’s vulnerability to extreme weather.
After that, the late Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III expanded on that framework through the National Climate Change Action Plan, a long-term roadmap aimed at building food and water security and encouraging climate-smart industries.
His presidency was also marked by a series of devastating storms, including Severe Tropical Storm Sendong in 2011, Super Typhoon Pablo in 2012, and the catastrophic Typhoon Yolanda in 2013, one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded.
These disasters left thousands dead, displaced millions, and underscored the urgency of building resilience in climate hotspots across the country.
When Rodrigo Duterte became president, the focus was on mining and energy, marked by the appointment of the late Environment Secretary Gina Lopez, who led a nationwide audit of mining firms and revoked various environmental permits. It was also under his watch when the Manila Bay rehabilitation was launched.
The Duterte administration also saw Typhoon Ulysses in 2020, which battered Luzon with deadly floods and landslides.
Now, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has shifted to investment-led strategies, spanning from public-private partnerships and carbon markets to scaling up renewable energy. He also vowed to speed up fossil fuel transition and reforms in global climate finance.
Yet, his administration has also faced a string of severe weather disturbances, including Super
Typhoon Egay in 2023, which ravaged Northern Luzon, and recently, Typhoon Nando in 2025, which brought fierce winds and torrential rains across Cagayan.
Most notably, Typhoon Kristine struck in October 2024, inundating Luzon, Visayas, and parts of Mindanao.
In his State of the Nation Addresses for the past few years, the chief executive reaffirmed emission-reduction targets, called for the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund Board, which the UN has tapped the Philippines to host, and announced plans for nationwide disaster aid coordination centers.
Modeling a moving target
AIMING for world-class climate modeling is easy to say. But without advanced technology and a generous budget, the dream remains out of reach.
For Villafuerte, the challenge is technical, as well as immediate, due to a lack of ‘computation resources.’
‘Models need thousands of computers merged-what we call a supercomputer. In developed countries, they can compute in seconds. If you use only a desktop, it could take months or even years,’ he explained.
Yet, he noted that the agency is doing its best to move in the right direction: ‘There are initiatives from the Advanced Science and Technology Institute, and we’re moving in that direction. We [even] recently purchased high-performance computers for operational purposes.’
Above all, according to Villafuerte, there should be enough funding. ‘But we know not everything can be given all at once,’ he said. ‘It can be staggered. Our commitment is to maximize existing resources and continue delivering our services.’
For now, the state weather bureau has to make do with over P2.1 billion in proposed allocations for 2026 under the National Expenditure Program-a figure not even one percent of the original budget for flood works.
Inclan saw the same strain from the ground. ‘All agencies really need bigger budgets because the demand for our services is growing,’ he said.
‘Before, we only gathered and disseminated data. Now we’re doing more-supporting other agencies, conducting research. It’s very different now. In our station, we need to increase personnel, upgrade instruments, and improve our communication lines.’
The 2026 budget allots P1.1 billion to Pagasa’s Weather and Climate Forecasting Program, a 24-percent increase from the previous year. Phivolcs, meanwhile, is set to receive P518 million for its hazard monitoring systems.
At the 2025 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. urged the world to reimagine resilience funding. ‘We envision an international financing system that does not burden developing countries with unsustainable debt under the pretext of resilience,’ he said in Geneva last June.
The stakes are high. Over the past 20 years, countries under the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) have lost $525 billion to climate-related disasters. Meanwhile, the much-touted $100-billion annual climate finance pledge, made in 2009, remains only partially met.
Yet even the private sector is stirring. Across Southeast Asia, green investments grew 20 percent last year, from $5.2 billion in 2022 to $6.3 billion in 2023, according to Bain and Company, GenZero, and Temasek.
Reading the next century
AT Pagasa, forecasters are turning to new tools to keep up. ‘We utilized several global climate models and downscaled them to a one-kilometer resolution across the country,’ Villafuerte said. ‘We already have projections for temperature and rainfall changes in the next 100 years.’
Across the science community, agencies like the Department of Science and Technology have initiatives such as GeoRiskPH, which gives LGUs localized hazard maps, and MASID Technologies, a network of real-time rain gauges and sensors.
The agency has also rolled out Project DANAS, a grassroots education toolkit in local dialects, and the PANAHON website, which delivers live forecasts and hazard updates.
For its part, Pagasa has been utilizing artificial intelligence, in which the technology analyzes past observations, refines current models, and produces better forecasts.
But foresight, scientists say, is only one side of the coin. The other side lies with the people who must act on it.
A Harvard Humanitarian Initiative survey found 85 percent of Filipinos are aware of climate change, and 46 percent expect serious impacts within five years. Yet two-thirds (66 percent) have taken no steps to adapt.
Those who do often turn to small acts, such as tree planting (21 percent), reducing energy use (15 percent), and saving water (15 percent), rather than structural change.
For Villafuerte, the task remains clear. ‘We continue to enhance our models, our forecasts, and our readiness,’ he said. ‘What we produce now must always be better than before.’a