FOOD and some energy-related items could drive inflation above 8 percent as inflation is expected to peak ‘a few more months,’ according to top Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) top officials.
Asked, in an interview with reporters on Tuesday, when he thinks the rise in the prices of goods and services could post the fastest rate or could reach its peak, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said: ‘A few more months, we think it will peak.’
In a separate interview at the same event, BSP Deputy Governor Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja responded: ‘We are looking at it very closely. There may be some months where we can see inflation continue to be elevated.’
Basing on actual data alone, with inflation averaging at 5.4 percent in the first nine months of 2026 and with the BSP seeing average inflation hitting 6.1 percent this year, Abenoja said: ‘Which means, there will still be a few months where we can see elevated inflation.’
Asked if by elevated inflation he meant the rate could move beyond the 8-percent level, Abenoja said: ‘There’s a chance. We’re looking at those possibilities.’
Abenoja said inflation in the coming months could be driven by ‘similar to what we have seen in the past few months,’ such as ‘food and some energy-related items.’
Bank economists’ projections
Based on recent inflation commentaries, some bank economists expect inflation to breach the 8-percent level in the coming months.
ANZ Research, the research division of Australia-based ANZ Banking Group Limited, sees October inflation for the Philippines surging to 8.4 percent.
It also expects inflation to remain above the 8-percent level in the last quarter of 2026 due to higher rice and oil prices.
‘Inflation is expected to have accelerated for the second straight month in October in the Philippines, reaching 8.4 percent year-on-year. Crude oil prices had risen to six-month highs by the end of October, which will maintain domestic fuel prices at elevated levels,’ the research division of the Australia-based bank noted.
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. said: ‘We have yet to see the peak in inflation this year.’
‘We expect it to come in November, when inflation could exceed 8 percent if current price pressures persist. Unlike the fuel-driven spike in April, the current upswing rests on stickier drivers,’ added Neri.
Explaining how price pressures could broaden further, he said fare and wage increases rarely reverse, and higher labor costs could feed into broader price-setting through second-round effects, a risk which he said is already ‘visible’ in core inflation, which climbed to a three-year high in September.
‘Additional upside risks include further Peso weakness, Meralco’s higher distribution charges under the newly approved rate reset, the potential impact of a Super El Niño on food and power supply, and volatile oil prices amid Middle East tensions,’ added Neri.