TIGHTER oil supplies amid the Middle East conflict may have pushed Manila’s mineral fuel import bill up nearly 30 percent in the first half of 2026, new data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed.
The PSA on Tuesday reported that mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials emerged as the second-largest imported commodity group in the first semester of 2026, with a total value of $11.12 billion, up 29.9 percent from the $8.56 billion recorded in the same period last year.
Within the commodity group, ‘other’ mineral fuels posted the biggest annual increase, rising 39.5 percent to $7.5 billion from $5.38 billion a year earlier. The category includes diesel fuel and fuel oils, light oils and preparations, aviation turbine fuel, and other mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials.
This was followed by petroleum coke, which rose 17.7 percent to $2.29 billion from $1.95 billion, while coal and coke imports increased 7.3 percent to $1.32 billion from $1.23 billion.
Ateneo de Manila University economist Ser K. Peña-Reyes said the increase in fuel imports reflects both the higher cost of energy and supply conditions during the Middle East conflict.
‘Given the 2026 Middle East conflict, elevated crude or refined-fuel prices and supply disruptions clearly contributed,’ Peña-Reyes told the BusinessMirror.
However, Peña-Reyes said the PSA data alone does not allow for a reliable breakdown of how much of the $2.56 billion increase in the fuel import bill came from higher prices and how much came from larger import volumes.
‘Most of the $2.56-billion increase cannot be cleanly attributed to volumes from PSA data alone,’ he said, noting that the available figures report the change in import value but do not provide a price-volume decomposition.
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency in March amid concerns over tighter crude oil supplies following the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
The Department of Energy (DOE) earlier said the Philippines sources the vast majority-or around 98 percent-of its crude oil imports from the Middle East.
It has since explored alternative oil suppliers and held talks with non-traditional sources, such as China, India, and Russia.
Based on PSA data, the country’s major sources of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials for the first semester of 2026 included South Korea at $2.33 billion, Indonesia at $1.51 billion, Singapore at $1.23 billion, Malaysia at $1.21 billion, Japan at $477.76 million, and Taiwan at $184.81 million.
Peña-Reyes said the increase in fuel imports ‘materially worsened’ the country’s external trade position.
PSA data showed that the Philippines’s trade deficit widened to $31.36 billion in the first half of 2026, up 28.1 percent from $24.48 billion in the same period last year.
‘Higher fuel import costs therefore add pressure to the current account and foreign-exchange demand, although strong exports and remittances/services can offset part of that pressure,’ he added.
China remained the Philippines’s largest trading partner in the first half of 2026, with bilateral trade reaching $28.43 billion.
This was followed by the United States at $12.85 billion, Japan at $11.70 billion, South Korea at $11.32 billion, and Hong Kong at $8.11 billion.
Among these major trading partners, the Philippines recorded its largest trade deficit with China at $18.02 billion and South Korea at $7.38 billion.
DepDev: Diversify energy mix
Meanwhile, Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the government should ‘seriously consider’ diversifying the country’s energy mix, warning that reliance on a limited number of sources leaves the Philippines ‘so vulnerable.’
‘I’m talking about, for example, we can consider nuclear energy to the extent that these are technologically manageable and assure the safety of such technology,’ Balisacan said during the agency’s budget hearing at the Senate.
He said the relatively low cost of nuclear energy also makes it an option worth considering.
Balisacan also agreed that establishing a Philippine oil reserve or storage facilities could be explored, after Senator Erwin Tulfo raised the option during the hearing.
‘We need to look at what is the most advantageous, especially from a fiscal viewpoint because our fiscal space is so challenging,’ Balisacan said.