The country’s raw sugar production slipped back into contraction territory in the current crop year, which will end on September 30, as bad weather and the spread of a pest in major production areas slashed cane yields.
The latest data from the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) showed that as of July 5, the volume of raw sugar from mills fell by 11.11 percent to 1.847 million metric tons (MMT), from the 2.078 MMT recorded in the same period last year.
Unless the only mill that remains open for this season posts a significant increase in output, the Philippines will likely end the current crop year with 1.85 MMT of raw sugar, as projected by the SRA.
Philippine Sugar Millers Association (PSMA) Executive Director Jesus Barrera told the BusinessMirror that lower sugarcane harvest delivered to the mills this crop year choked off raw sugar production.
Total cane milled dropped by 11.02 percent to 23.073 MMT during the period, from 25.931 MMT in the previous year, based on SRA data.
Despite this, sugar content remained relatively stable at 1.62 LKGTC (50-kilo bag per ton of cane) year-on-year.
‘The lower cane supply reflects a combination of factors, including weather-related effects experienced during the crop cycle and pest pressures such as the continued spread of red-striped soft scale insect [RSSI] in affected areas,’ Barrera told this newspaper.
Given the lackluster demand and ample domestic stockpile, he said the industry would not recommend any sugar imports at the moment despite the drop in output.
‘With weak demand and high inventories, there is no need to make any recommendations (for importation) at this time,’ Barrera said.
SRA data showed that domestic demand is down by 4.25 percent for raw sugar and 4.96 percent for the refined variant. The country’s physical inventory of raw and refined sugar is at 421,826 metric tons (MT) and 454,309 MT, respectively.
With crop year 2026-2027 set to begin on October 1, Barrera said the sugar industry may be hard-pressed to repeat its positive performance in crop year 2024-2025 as threats posed by El Niño and the spread of RSSI could dent production.
‘Excessive rainfall during the previous crop cycle affected field operations and crop development in some areas, while prolonged dry conditions associated with El Niño could further reduce cane yields if forecasts materialize,’ he said.
‘Unless these challenges are effectively mitigated through coordinated interventions by government and industry stakeholders, the prevailing industry outlook is that raw sugar production next crop year may remain under pressure.’
Exports
Meanwhile, the Philippines has exported 98,578 MT of raw sugar to the United States as of July 5, based on SRA data.
The latest figure is the highest level recorded since the country again exported raw sugar to the US in crop year 2023-2024.
It skipped outbound shipments of the commodity to the US for the previous two crop years due to shortfalls in domestic production.
The shipments were authorized under Sugar Order (SO) 3 for the current crop year, which allowed the export of 100,000 MT of raw sugar to the US under the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system.
The Philippines recently secured a sugar allocation of 145,235 metric tons raw value (MTRV) for fiscal year 2027, the fourth straight year it has received the same quota under Washington’s import program.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) announced the in-quota allocations under the TRQ on imported raw cane sugar for FY 2027, which will begin on October 1.
Under the TRQ system, countries are allowed to export specified quantities of a product to the US at a relatively low tariff.
The Philippines received the second-largest allocation after the Dominican Republic’s 189,343 MTRV, with Brazil trailing behind at 100,000 MTRV.