THE country’s balance of payments (BOP) posted a surplus in September, as modest inflows from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) income abroad and the national government’s foreign currency deposits narrowed the year-to-date deficit.
Latest data released by the BSP showed the BOP, which accounts for the transactions of the country with the rest of the world, recorded a surplus of $82 million in September 2025.
This amount is lower than the $3.5 billion surplus posted in September 2024 and $359 million in August 2025.
The surplus trimmed the year-to-date deficit to $5.3 billion as of end-September, from $5.4 billion in end-August.
According to the central bank, the surplus reflected the BSP’s net income from its investments abroad and the national government’s net foreign currency deposits with the BSP.
‘Preliminary data indicate that the year-to-date BOP deficit was largely due to the continued trade in goods deficit,’ the BSP said, citing data from the Philippine Statistics Authority’s (PSA) International Merchandise Trade Statistics.
This was partly offset by the sustained net inflows from personal remittances from overseas Filipinos, trade in services, foreign direct and portfolio investments and foreign borrowings by the national government, the BSP added.
The trade deficit for January to August 2025 settled at $32.4 billion, down from the $34.3 billion deficit posted in January to August 2024, according to PSA.
According to Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation, the local political noise led to some market volatility and may have affected capital flows.
The so-called ‘Trump risk premium’-or the global market volatility linked to US trade and fiscal policies-continued to weigh on investor sentiment, Ricafort added.
Moreover, the BOP position aligned with the growth in the country’s gross international reserves (GIR), which rose to $109.1 billion as of end-September 2025 from $107.1 billion as of end-August 2025.
GIR comprises foreign-denominated securities, foreign exchange and other assets, including gold, helping the country finance its imports and foreign debt obligations, stabilize its currency and provide a buffer against external economic shocks.
The BSP said the current reserve level remains adequate, equivalent to 7.3 months’ worth of imports and payments for services and primary income.
‘Specifically, the latest GIR level ensures availability of foreign exchange to meet balance of payments financing needs, such as for payment of imports and debt service, in extreme conditions when there are no export earnings or foreign loans,’ the BSP noted.
Further, the GIR covers about 3.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on residual maturity.
The BSP explained that short-term debt based on residual maturity refers to outstanding external debt with original maturity of one year or less, plus principal payments on medium- and long-term loans of the public and private sectors falling due within the next 12 months.
‘The smaller BOP surplus reflects fewer one-off inflows and a still-wide trade gap, but the external position remains manageable with steady remittances, strong services exports and solid reserves,’ SM Investments Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan Roces said.
Roces said investment inflows may resume and boost liquidity and credit conditions as global rates ease and regional demand recovers. This should benefit firms with deep local roots and diverse sources of growth, he added.
Surplus to be sustained in Q4-Taningco
Meanwhile, Security Bank Chief Economist Angelo Taningco said the BOP surplus in September was likely supported by net receipts in services trade, overseas remittances and net foreign equity investments, which together overshadowed trade-in-goods deficit and net foreign bond outflows.
‘For the last three months of the year, we expect BOP surplus to be maintained with our full-year BOP deficit forecast pegged at $4.5 billion,’ Taningco added.
In the coming months, Ricafort noted that although oil prices have declined and the peso has steadied, higher import demand toward year-end may widen the trade deficit and weigh on the country’s BOP.
‘Further/sustained growth in the country’s structural US dollar inflows would lead to better data for BOP,’ Ricafort added.