A HYPOTHETICAL 2028 presidential and vice presidential race is shaping up to be a tight contest, with the Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo-Rafael ‘Raffy’ Tulfo tandem holding only a 3-percentage-point lead over the Sara Z. Duterte-and Maria Imelda Josefa ‘Imee’ R. Marcos pairing in the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey of Octa Research.
The Q2 2026 survey showed 45 percent of adult Filipinos saying they would vote for the Robredo-Tulfo tandem if the May 2028 elections were held today, compared with 42 percent who would support the Duterte-Marcos tandem.
The latest figures represent modest gains for both hypothetical tickets from the previous quarter. Support for Robredo-Tulfo rose by 1 percentage point from 44 percent in Q1 2026, while the Duterte-Marcos tandem gained two points from 40 percent.
Octa pointed out that the results underscore how competitive the hypothetical matchup has become, with neither tandem establishing a decisive advantage nearly two years before the 2028 elections.
Robredo-Tulfo v Duterte-Marcos is now the most competitive tandem pairing Octa has recorded across the TNM series. Earlier rounds saw Duterte-Marcos ahead by 15 to 25 points, but Robredo-Tulfo pulled ahead by 4 points in Q1 2026.
With that lead tightening to 3 points in Q2 2026, the race has remained within the margin of error for two straight quarters.
Octa said the survey also found that 8 percent of respondents would not vote for either tandem, while 4 percent said they did not know whom they would support and 1 percent refused to answer.
The three-point gap is particularly significant in light of the survey’s reported ±3 percent margin of error. As such, the results should be viewed as an indication of current public sentiment rather than evidence of a definitive lead or a forecast of the eventual election outcome.
Octa has likewise cautioned that hypothetical tandem matchups at this stage should be interpreted as an early snapshot of voter preferences. A similar warning accompanied the poll’s earlier results, when Robredo-Tulfo led Duterte-Marcos by 4 percentage points.
The numbers point to a potentially competitive contest between two political groupings with distinct bases of support.
Robredo, a former vice president and now mayor of Naga City, and Tulfo, a senator, have emerged as a hypothetical combination that continues to attract substantial support. The tandem previously registered 44 percent in Octa’s Q1 survey, ahead of Duterte-Marcos at 40 percent.
Duterte, meanwhile, has publicly expressed to run for the presidency in 2028, Marcos, while the incumbent senator and estranged sister of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., gives the hypothetical ticket a combination of the Duterte and Marcos political bases.
Earlier Octa results showed a pronounced regional dimension to the matchup. In the Q1 survey, Robredo-Tulfo posted particularly strong support in the National Capital Region and Balance Luzon, while Duterte-Marcos dominated Mindanao.
Octa explained the regional divide suggests that the strength of the two hypothetical tandems cannot be measured solely by their national percentages. The ability of either side to expand its support across geographic and demographic groups could prove critical if the matchup eventually materializes.
Regionally, Octa said the Robredo-Tulfo tandem records its highest levels of support in Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan)-84 percent, Bicol Region (71 percent), Central Luzon (71 percent), Ilocos Region (69 percent), Western Visayas (68 percent), and Negros Island Region (61 percent). Meanwhile, the Duterte-Marcos tandem posts its strongest support in Caraga (97 percent), Northern Mindanao (92 percent), Davao Region (91 percent), Bangsamoro region and Central Mindanao (both 88 percent), Zamboanga Peninsula (87 percent), and Central Visayas (82 percent). The results reveal a pronounced regional divide: Robredo-Tulfo performs strongly across several Luzon and Visayas regions, while Duterte-Marcos dominates throughout Mindanao and also leads decisively in Central Visayas. Individual-region figures are based on smaller subsamples and carry wider margins of error than the national and major-area numbers.
‘By locality, the Robredo-Tulfo tandem leads among urban residents [48 percent versus 38 percent], while Duterte-Marcos leads among rural residents [47 percent versus 40 percent]. Robredo-Tulfo also leads among both male respondents [48 percent versus 43 percent] and female respondents (42 percent versus 41 percent), although the gap among females is only one percentage point. These results suggest that Robredo-Tulfo draws comparatively stronger support from urban and male respondents, while the rural vote favors Duterte-Marcos,’ Octa said.