THE ambush of Bangsamoro interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s convoy has exposed deepening political divisions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), raising concerns over the stability of the Bangsamoro region just weeks before its first parliamentary election, a media brief by Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA), said.
Macacua’s convoy was attacked on August 15 in barangay Bitu, Datu Odin Sinsuat, as
he was returning to Cotabato City after attending a general assembly of the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) in Kabuntalan, where he took his oath as the party’s chairperson. No one was injured, although the vehicles were riddled with bullets.
The national government, MILF Central Committee, Moro National Liberation Front, Commission on Elections and other organizations condemned the attack.
The National Police, in coordination with the Armed Forces, has launched an investigation and identified a person of interest, although authorities were still determining whether the incident was election-related as of Aug. 18.
CCAA said the timing of the attack has fueled speculation that it could be connected to tensions surrounding the upcoming elections.
One narrative circulating on the ground and on social media alleges that individuals aligned with the BFP may have staged the ambush, either to create grounds for postponing the election and keeping Macacua in power or to generate public sympathy. CCAA stressed that these are among several theories surrounding the incident and have not been established as facts.
The incident came a day after the MILF Central Committee publicly announced its decision to indefinitely suspend Macacua as chief of staff of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces, along with nine base commanders who had pledged allegiance to the BFP.
Another possibility raised by CCAA is that the attack could have been carried out by supporters of the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) who oppose Macacua and his recent actions against the MILF Central Committee, including the removal of Mohagher Iqbal as Education minister.
Macacua’s decision to take the BFP chairmanship may have further heightened tensions by reinforcing perceptions that he is challenging the MILF leadership and its authority. CCAA also noted the possibility that other political parties, gun-for-hire groups or extremist organizations could have been behind the attack in an effort to generate fear and violence ahead of the election.
CCAA warned that the ambush could further widen divisions within the MILF and deepen political polarization across the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
The organization said this could have significant implications for the MILF’s support base and potentially threaten both the parliamentary election and the broader political settlement. The area where the ambush occurred has also been a longstanding hotspot for political and identity-based violence, with rival clans previously contesting the mayoralty.
The rhetoric from opposing camps has added to concerns about a potential escalation. During a BFP rally in Kabuntalan before the ambush, Macacua reportedly said the group was ‘prepared for war to ensure that the Bangsamoro is on the right path.’ Meanwhile, MILF-linked politician and Member of Parliament Abdullah Macapaar, also known as Commander Bravo, warned during a UBJP assembly on Aug. 3 that they were prepared for armed confrontation if there was manipulation of the electoral process.
According to CCAA, such declarations raise the risk that succeeding developments could become increasingly volatile and potentially threaten the transition away from armed struggle that the Bangsamoro political settlement was intended to achieve.
CCAA warned that the political divide could reignite long-standing conflicts and trigger new cycles of violence, particularly between MILF-affiliated groups aligned with the UBJP and BFP.
The organization said signs of such tensions are already evident in areas including Nabalawag in the Special Geographic Area, and warned that violence could spread to other areas with a history of clan rivalries and intra-MILF conflict, including the SPMS Box, where several MILF base commands remain active.
With the parliamentary election approaching, CCAA said the coming weeks will be a critical test for the Bangsamoro peace process.
It added that the first parliamentary election could either strengthen the foundations for lasting peace or, if political polarization continues to deepen, create conditions for renewed conflict.