The average price of nickel could inch up to $15,400 per metric ton (MT) this year on the back of stable demand and a weakening dollar, according to a research firm.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, recently adjusted upward its nickel price forecast from $15,000 per MT. Indonesia’s policies, however, remain a downside risk.
‘We now hold a more optimistic outlook for [the second half of] 2025 than previously, with prices set to hold firm for the remainder of the year,’ BMI said. ‘[This will be] underpinned by Fed optimism and persistent policy-driven turbulence in Indonesia, alongside broadly stable demand conditions.’
‘That said, we remain cautious as Indonesia’s ongoing capacity additions are a key headwind that continues to skew risks to our outlook to the downside.’
Despite lowering this year’s global nickel demand growth forecast due to softer global growth and heightened trade risks, the research firm expects the market to remain solid, a development that is expected to benefit Philippine nickel exporters.
‘Demand is expected to remain solid, underpinned by expanding stainless steel output and the rise in electric vehicles (EVs), led by leading global consumer Mainland China.’
Meanwhile, BMI said nickel quotations could continue to face downward pressure beyond 2025, ‘seeing more moderate growth than previously anticipated due to the continued surge in Indonesian nickel production.’
In particular, the research firm lowered its projection for the average price of nickel in 2029 to $18,000 per MT, from its initial outlook of $21,500 per MT as the market remains oversupplied.
‘Recent nickel smelter curtailments and suspensions outside Indonesia underscore the long-term nature of these market pressures.’
BMI also noted that Indonesia presents the ‘greatest source of uncertainty’ for the refined nickel market in the longer term.
‘Ultimately, the pace at which the country is able to ramp up refined nickel production capacity will determine how well supplied the global market is in the coming decade,’ the BMI said.
‘Simultaneously, evolving battery chemistries introduce another layer of uncertainty, potentially reshaping nickel demand patterns in the clean energy sector.’