Philippine stock market shows mixed signals as investors weigh recovery and economic risks

Last week

Share prices rebounded, with the main index returning to the 6,100-point level, mainly on bargain hunting.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 81.74 points to close at 6,108.86 points.

The main index was down during the early part of the week, closing at the 5,900-point level during the Monday and Tuesday trading sessions.

‘The local market managed to partially recover some lost grounds in last week’s trading as investors hunted for bargains. However, trading activity was thin implying that market confidence remains weak amid lingering uncertainties,’ Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco, senior research analyst at Philstocks Financials Inc., said.

The average volume of trade reached P5.2 billion, thanks to Tuesday’s P7.49 billion worth of trade, mainly on window dressing of companies.

Foreign investors, who cornered 57 percent of the trades, were net sellers at P4.28 billion.

Other indices posted gains, except for the Property index that shed 30.45 points to close at 2,294.59 points. The broader All Shares index rose 41.05 to 3,685.85, the Financials index inched up by 10.55 to 2,083.19, the Industrial index surged 280.35 to 9,016.39, the Holding Firms index added 52.41 to 4,968.79, the Services index climbed 58.32 to 2,270.26 and the Mining and Oil index soared 1,244.87 to 13,259.22.

For the week, gainers edged gainers 121 to 112, and 28 shares were unchanged.

Top gainers were Nickel Asia Corp., Atok-Big Wedge Co. Inc., Manila Mining Corp. A and B shares, OceanaGold (Philippines) Inc., Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc., NiHAO Mineral Resources International Inc. and Alliance Select Foods International Inc.

Top losers, meanwhile, were Metro Alliance Holdings and Equities Corp. A, Republic Glass Holdings Corp., Citystate Savings Bank Inc., Coal Asia Holdings Inc., Pacific Online Systems Corp., Jackstones Inc. and Pacifica Holdings Inc.

This week

Share prices may decline on news of faster inflation, which could pose a threat to the easing cycle of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) if the rate hits the top-end of its target range.

Tantiangco said investors will watch out for the Philippines’s September inflation data and the BSP policy decision.

‘An inflation rate within the BSP’s 1.5 percent to 2.3 percent projection, especially one biased towards the lower end, may give sentiment a boost. Meanwhile, a rate cut and signals of further policy easing in the near term are expected to help lift sentiment too,’ he said.

‘Investors are also expected to take cues from the movement of other financial markets. A further improvement in the Peso’s position and a further decline in yields are expected to help the market,’ he said.

Meanwhile, 2TradeAsia said global slowdown signals and domestic lethargy suggest a cautious approach, but undervaluation in the local equity mart offers selective upside for nimble investors.

‘While the PSEl’s range-bound struggle and global risks keep sentiment muted, these levels present a strategic entry for long-term capital. Keep focused, pick your spots, and let value guide your moves,’ it said.

It sees immediate support at 6,000 points, secondary at 5,800 points, resistance at 6,200 points.

Stock picks

Maybank Securities gave a buy rating on Converge Information and Communications Technology Solutions Inc.

‘We recently hosted a meeting with CNVRG’s management, engaging a select group of local investors. The discussion provided valuable insights, reinforcing our confidence in the sustained demand for broadband services,’ it said.

‘The recent downward revision in guidance appears to be a temporary setback, primarily attributable to manpower constraints and adverse weather conditions.’

It gave a target price of P20 a piece on the stock. Converge shares, meanwhile, were last traded at P12.38 apiece.

Meanwhile, it retained a buy advise on the stock of International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI), mainly on the positive outlook on the country’s ports sector, where the Razon-owned firm has a dominant position.

It noted the strong momentum of the country’s port sector in the first half of the year. The sector is expected to accelerate in the second half.

‘Growth is anchored by resilient consumption and trade, with foreignbcontainers making up the bulk of traffic. ICT, through MICT [Manila International Container Terminal] port’s dominant gateway role, remains best positioned to capture this momentum.’

ICTSI’s shares closed last week at P512 apiece.

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