THE Philippines is projected to incur the highest port damage in Southeast Asia from climate-related hazards, with losses potentially reaching $70.2 billion annually by 2100, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In a report released on Wednesday, the multilateral lender estimated that port damage in the Philippines could reach $20.6 billion annually under an intermediate-emissions scenario, in which sea levels are projected to rise by roughly 50 to 80 centimeters.
Under a high-emissions scenario, where sea levels could approach 1 meter, annual port damages could climb to $70.2 billion.
The projected damages are equivalent to 0.19 percent and 0.44 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), respectively.
In absolute terms, the Philippines’s projected port damages are the highest in Southeast Asia and the third-highest across the Asia-Pacific economies covered by the report.
China leads with projected annual losses ranging from $82.2 billion to $332 billion, while India’s estimates range from $70 billion to $254 billion.
The estimates cover not only the cost of repairing damaged port infrastructure but also revenue losses from operational downtime and disruptions to maritime trade. The ADB considered several climate-related hazards, including tropical cyclone winds, flooding, extreme waves, and other marine conditions.
According to the multilateral lending institution, the impact of port damage could extend beyond coastal areas. Disruptions to port operations can delay shipments, interrupt supply chains and affect businesses and communities that rely on maritime transport for goods and essential supplies.
‘Because these networks link farms to markets, fishers to buyers, and households to health services and food supplies, their disruption cascades directly into livelihoods, nutrition, and well-being,’ the report stated. ‘The extent of exposed infrastructure is likely to increase as urban development increasingly puts these built assets in harm’s way.’
Beyond infrastructure losses, millions of Filipinos could also face exposure to coastal flooding in the coming decades.
The ADB projected that 5.437 million people in the Philippines could be exposed annually to coastal flooding by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
In Manila alone, about 1.305 million people could be exposed annually to coastal flooding by 2100 under the same high-emissions scenario.
The total projected Filipinos affected by coastal flooding would be the fifth-highest projected population exposure among the Asia-Pacific economies covered by the report.
China recorded the highest projected exposure at 33.015 million people, followed by India at 21.491 million, Bangladesh at 17.454 million and Vietnam at 13.306 million.
The report defines the figure as the expected annual population exposed to coastal flood depths exceeding 15 centimeters. Flooding at this depth can disrupt livelihoods and economic activity and pose risks to vulnerable groups.
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Financing coastal resilience
DESPITE the scale of the projected risks, the Philippines has developed financing mechanisms that could help support climate-related initiatives and encourage private investment, ADB Senior Climate Change Specialist Kathryn Milliken said.
‘The Philippines is one of the more pioneering countries in some of the work it’s been doing on catastrophe risk insurance, contingent financing, and sustainable finance initiatives, where it’s building a platform for more private capital to emerge over time,’ Milliken said during the report’s online launch.
She cautioned, however, that countries need different combinations of financing instruments to address their respective needs.
‘There are some positive kind of developments that are coming out, but it’s not a one-size-fits-all, and it can’t be one specific instrument,’ she said.
The ADB report particularly cited the Philippines’ efforts to integrate climate risks and resilience priorities into public financial management, including expenditure frameworks, investment appraisals, budget tagging and screening.
It also noted that the country has developed a Sustainable Finance Framework. The report said $7.48 billion had been issued through several sovereign sustainability bonds in international capital markets, with proceeds allocated in part to climate resilience and the management of coastal and marine resources.
More broadly, the ADB called on governments across the region to incorporate long-term coastal risks into development planning, strengthen institutions and governance, and mobilize predictable, sustainable financing.
It said public finance would remain central to coastal resilience, while policy and regulatory reforms, risk-sharing arrangements, and blended finance could help attract private investment where appropriate.