SONA 2026 | The great job shift: Weak employment creation or structural changes in the market?

Low unemployment has remained one of the government’s strongest labor market indicators, but a key government target suggests the bigger challenge is no longer creating jobs-it is creating more formal ones.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has repeatedly vowed to deliver ‘more and better jobs’ by attracting investments, expanding economic opportunities and strengthening worker protection as part of his administration’s broader development agenda.

Four years into his term, however, one of the government’s own measures of job quality is moving farther from its target.

The Philippine Development Plan (PDP) aims to increase the share of wage and salaried workers in private establishments to between 53 percent and 55 percent by 2028.

Workers in this category generally enjoy more stable incomes, stronger labor protections and better access to social security benefits than those in informal employment.

Recent Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data showed the share slipped to 50 percent in 2025 from 50.1 percent a year earlier.

The decline came despite relatively favorable headline employment figures, suggesting that much of the labor market’s expansion has yet to translate into more formal private-sector jobs.

Sentro ng mga Nagkakaisa at Progresibong Manggagawa Secretary General Josua Mata said the figures point to a deeper structural problem.

‘This is a clear indication that the economy is failing to generate enough stable, formal and decent jobs,’ Mata told the BusinessMirror.

He said employment should not be measured solely by the number of people working, but also by whether those jobs provide security, adequate income and labor rights.

Mata added that the country has continued to rely on a low-wage development model instead of building industries capable of creating quality employment on a larger scale.

Why formal jobs matter

Labor economist Rene E. Ofreneo said the latest figures reflect the continuing ‘informalization’ of the Philippine economy.

He said the formal sector is gradually being hollowed out as fewer registered medium and large enterprises expand regular employment.

Instead, many employers have become increasingly dependent on outsourced and contractual workers.

Ofreneo said the trend also reflects the absence of a coherent industrial policy despite many countries adopting more active strategies to strengthen domestic industries.

The shift has become more visible as more Filipinos enter self-employment, platform work and other non-standard work arrangements.

Trade Union Congress of the Philippines spokesperson Carlos Oñate said many of these workers continue to receive lower incomes and weaker social protection than regular employees.

‘Economic growth has not translated into quality jobs and better incomes for ordinary workers,’ Oñate told the BusinessMirror.

He said many Filipinos continue to end up in self-employment, unpaid family work and other informal occupations because the economy is not generating enough regular private-sector jobs.

Oñate added that stronger investment reforms, lower power costs and a clearer industrialization strategy are needed to attract industries capable of producing permanent and productive employment.

Meanwhile, University of the Philippines School of Labor and Industrial Relations Assistant Professor Benjamin Velasco said the administration’s employment strategy has largely followed the same private sector-led approach adopted by previous governments.

‘There is nothing innovative about the employment program of the Marcos Jr. administration as it relies on the private sector to take the lead in generating jobs,’ Velasco told the BusinessMirror.

He said employers naturally gravitate toward more flexible labor arrangements unless government policies actively encourage regular employment.

Velasco said a stronger public employment program and a strategic industrial policy could help revive domestic manufacturing and agriculture while expanding formal jobs.

Government response

The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE), however, said the figures reflect structural changes in the labor market rather than weak job creation.

‘The Department of Labor and Employment attributes the projected shortfall in private wage and salaried employment to complex structural shifts rather than a lack of overall job generation,’ Labor Undersecretary Carmelita Ilustre-Torres told this newspaper.

She said recent employment growth has been concentrated in project-based and seasonal industries, including construction, administrative services, and accommodation and food activities.

At the same time, wholesale and retail trade and agriculture have posted year-on-year declines in employment.

Ilustre-Torres also pointed to the rapid expansion of the gig economy.

‘DOLE views the rapid expansion of informal, contractual, and gig work as both a vital economic lifeline and a significant structural challenge to achieving its formal wage-employment targets,’ she said.

She said many platform workers fall outside traditional employer-employee arrangements and often lack mandatory social protection and stable career pathways.

The department said it is addressing these gaps through the Philippine Labor and Employment Plan, the Trabaho Para sa Bayan Plan, expanded reskilling programs, improved job matching through Public Employment Service Offices and the eTrabaho platform, and ongoing efforts to strengthen protections for platform workers.

The next two years

The differing assessments underscore the challenge confronting the Marcos administration as it enters the final two years of its term.

Government officials point to sustained employment gains, while labor groups argue that those gains will remain incomplete if more Filipinos continue to rely on informal and insecure work.

The debate ultimately goes beyond unemployment.

It centers on whether economic growth is producing the kind of jobs that provide stability, higher incomes and meaningful social protection.

For labor groups, reversing the decline in formal employment will require more than stronger labor market programs.

It will also depend on whether the government can expand domestic industries capable of creating regular and productive work.

With less than two years left before President Marcos steps down, the success of his employment agenda may ultimately be measured not by how many Filipinos have jobs, but by how many have jobs secure enough to build a better future.

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