THE new United States tariff imposed on Philippine goods over forced-labor concerns is unlikely to materially affect the country’s economic growth, economists said.
Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) Chief Economist Dong He said economies across the region, including the Philippines, have adapted to US trade restrictions since the reciprocal tariffs took effect last year.
‘The private sectors have adjusted or reconfigured their supply chains so I think the region has dealt with tariff-related uncertainties quite well. We don’t see any further change in our view on that,’ He said in a virtual briefing.
In its updated economic outlook, Amro retained its growth forecast for the Philippines at 4.1 percent this year and 5.5 percent in 2027.
For inflation, the regional macroeconomic surveillance organization lowered its 2026 projection to 5.7 percent from 6 percent previously. Amro also maintained its 2027 inflation forecast at 4.1 percent.
Amro noted that the Philippines is ‘very much plugged’ into the global artificial intelligence (AI) cycle through its semiconductor exports.
According to He, this would continue to support Philippine export growth despite the higher US duties.
‘I think we have reasons to be reasonably cautiously optimistic on the Philippines,’ He said.
‘I think the Philippine economy is benefiting from the AI cycle, but it has its own specifics in terms of its oil exposure to the Middle East [and] its probable lack of strategic reserves in terms of oil supply. That’s reflected in these numbers,’ he added.
Last week, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that a 12.5 percent tariff would be imposed on certain Philippine products after concluding that the country had not adequately prevented the entry of goods produced through forced labor.
The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) said a preliminary assessment based on 2025 trade data showed that around 34.28 percent of Philippine exports to the US, valued at approximately $6.25 billion, could be covered by the new tariff.
In a separate interview with the BusinessMirror, former Tariff Commissioner George N. Manzano agreed that the new rate may not be ‘overly restrictive.’
‘What will matter much more is whether the Philippines can continue to retain the exemptions for key exports such as semiconductors and other electronic products,’ Manzano said.
Among the products excluded from the tariff are major Philippine exports such as semiconductors, integrated circuits, automatic data-processing machines, printers, headphones and projectors, as well as automotive parts, aircraft components, coconut products, processed and fresh fruits, cocoa, frozen cassava, taro, pastries and biscuits.
Mineral exports, including copper, nickel and cobalt ores and concentrates, are likewise exempt.
In total, exports worth about $11.98 billion, or nearly two-thirds of the country’s shipments to the US, are exempt from the measure.
Manzano noted that semiconductors account for the bulk of Philippine exports to the US, making their continued exemption a significant cushion against the impact of the new tariffs.
He added that the higher duty rate is unlikely to significantly erode the country’s competitiveness.
‘Most of our major competitors are also covered by the new Section 301 tariffs, generally in the 10 percent to 12.5 percent range, so the Philippines is not at a major disadvantage relative to them,’ Manzano said.
Despite the relatively limited tariff impact, Amro said the Philippines should work to attract and strengthen private investment to expand its productive capacity and improve infrastructure.
He said stronger investment would help raise the economy’s medium-term growth potential and make it more resilient to natural disasters and other external shocks.