THE state weather bureau on Tuesday warned lawmakers that the ongoing El Niño is expected to intensify in the coming months, potentially triggering widespread dry conditions and drought across the country by November and lasting through the first half of 2027, raising concerns over water supply and food production.
During a House Committee on Agriculture and Food hearing, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa)Climatology and Agrometeorology Division chief, Thelma A. Cinco, said a weak to moderate El Niño is already present and is expected to strengthen steadily in the coming months.
Climate models show a 97 percent probability that El Niño will persist until the first half of 2027, with a strong episode likely by mid-2026 and a ‘very strong’ event favored toward the year’s end.
Cinco highlighted November as a critical turning point, when rainfall across most parts of the country is expected to drop to below or even way below normal levels.
‘Way below normal rainfall is expected across the country in November,’ she told lawmakers, pointing to a high risk of widespread dry spells.
Current monitoring already shows drought conditions affecting much of Luzon and the Visayas, while parts of Mindanao are experiencing dry conditions.
By November, at least 18 provinces in Luzon are projected to fall under dry spell conditions, with the Visayas also likely to experience below-normal rainfall.
While August may still bring near-normal rainfall in many areas, conditions will begin to shift unevenly. Western Luzon could receive above-normal rainfall, while southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, may turn drier.
By September and October, below-normal rainfall is expected to dominate large parts of Luzon and eventually spread across the country.
A temporary increase in rainfall may occur in December, particularly in Luzon, possibly due to tropical cyclones, but this is unlikely to offset the broader dry trend. By January 2027, dry conditions are expected to return nationwide.
Pagasa forecasts seven to 11 tropical cyclones between August 2026 and January 2027. While fewer cyclones are expected later in the year, those that form may be stronger, potentially reaching typhoon or super typhoon intensity.
However, Cinco cautioned that not all storms will bring significant rainfall, limiting their benefit to drought-affected areas.
The projected prolonged dry conditions could disrupt planting schedules, reduce crop yields, and strain irrigation systems, particularly as the dry season begins.
Cinco said drought conditions may worsen further into 2027 if El Niño persists, coinciding with hotter temperatures.
With the risk of a ‘very strong’ El Niño increasing, Pagasa urged government agencies and local stakeholders to act early to mitigate its impact, particularly on agriculture and water resources.
Strategic action plan
THE Office of Civil Defense (OCD) on Wednesday laid out before lawmakers its El Niño Strategic Action Plan, warning of widespread impacts on food, water, energy, health, and public safety as the country braces for a prolonged dry spell.
OCD Director Moises M. Nayve Jr. said the plan, earlier presented to President Marcos and senior economic managers, outlines coordinated government interventions amid projections by Pagasa of more than a 55 percent probability of El Niño, prompting the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) to direct all disaster councils nationwide to prepare for dry conditions.
Nayve said the OCD’s role is to orchestrate and synchronize the efforts of line departments under a national framework that assigns sectoral responsibilities to key agencies, including the Department of Environment and Natural Resources for water security; Department of Agriculture for food security; Department of Energy for energy; Department of Health for health; and the Department of the Interior and Local Government for public safety, in line with the government’s 2023 El Niño strategy.
Based on pre-disaster risk assessments, authorities expect reduced crop yields in rice and corn, disruptions in livestock and fisheries, and increased reliance on imports that could push food prices higher, while declining water levels in major dams may trigger rationing and reduced hydropower output, increasing dependence on thermal energy and raising risks such as saltwater intrusion. Health and environmental threats are also expected to rise, including heat-related illnesses, dehydration, waterborne diseases, forest fires, and coral bleaching, alongside socioeconomic pressures on farmers, fisherfolk, and other vulnerable sectors that may require expanded government assistance.
To mitigate these risks, the Department of Agriculture is implementing measures such as repositioning farm inputs, expanding crop insurance, strengthening irrigation and water management, and promoting climate-resilient farming, supported by livelihood and market interventions to stabilize food supply and protect incomes.
Other agencies are rolling out parallel measures, including water conservation and rainwater harvesting; enhanced disease surveillance and medical preparedness; energy supply monitoring and resiliency measures; and intensified fire prevention and community safety programs.
Nayve also clarified that the previous national task force on El Niño has been deactivated, with a specialized working group under the NDRRMC now handling monitoring, mapping, and impact assessment, while the OCD continues to lead coordination efforts. A nationwide information campaign is also underway to disseminate advisories and promote preparedness among communities.
While most programs are already funded under existing agency mandates, Nayve said efforts are ongoing to address remaining funding gaps through partnerships and phased implementation, stressing that the action plan remains a work in progress as El Niño poses a significant challenge to the country’s resources, economy, and public welfare.