Fitch links Armenia’s rating outlook to progress in peace talks with Azerbaijan

Progress in the peace process with Azerbaijan could further strengthen Armenia’s sovereign credit profile, Fitch Ratings said, revising the outlook on Armenia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (LTFC IDR) to Positive from Stable while affirming the rating at ‘BB-‘, Azernews reports.

In its latest assessment, Fitch pointed to a joint declaration signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan aimed at reaching a comprehensive peace agreement, noting that the move has significantly reduced near-term risks of military escalation. The agency highlighted that trade with and through Azerbaijan has begun to open, while relations with Trkiye are substantially improving, with reports that Ankara is considering reopening its land border with Armenia.

Fitch said these developments could generate additional upside to Armenia’s medium-term growth outlook, particularly if the peace agreement is implemented in a sustained manner and regional connectivity is restored through the reopening of borders and transport routes.

At the same time, the agency warned that negative rating action could follow if geopolitical risks increase or if political and economic stability is undermined-specifically citing the derailment of the current peace process with Azerbaijan as a key downside risk.

Conversely, Fitch identified a durable decline in geopolitical risk and domestic political uncertainty as a potential trigger for a future upgrade, again emphasizing that meaningful progress in the peace process with Azerbaijan would be central to such a scenario.

The rating agency’s comments come against the backdrop of a high-profile diplomatic breakthrough on August 8, 2025, in Washington, where President Ilham Aliyev, US President Donald Trump, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration. One provision of the document ??????????????? the launch of the ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’ (TRIPP), designed to unblock regional communications.

During the same meeting, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan initialed the draft ‘Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia’ and jointly appealed to the current OSCE Chairperson-in-Office to terminate the OSCE Minsk Group process, marking a symbolic shift away from the long-standing mediation format.

Overall, Fitch’s assessment underscores how regional normalization and reconciliation with Azerbaijan are increasingly seen not only as political milestones for Armenia, but also as key drivers of economic confidence and sovereign creditworthiness.

State Department warns Iran against attacks on its bases

The United States State Department on Saturday warned Iran against striking American military bases, saying Washington is tracking reports of possible attacks and underlining that all options remain on the table if Iranian forces target U.S. assets, Azernews reports.

In a message posted on its Persian-language account on X, the State Department reiterated earlier warnings by President Donald Trump that if the Islamic Republic were to attack American installations, it would face ‘very, very powerful force,’ and cautioned Tehran not to ‘play games’ with the U.S. leadership.

This message comes at a time of escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington against the backdrop of one of the most serious internal crises in Iran in decades. Nationwide protests that began over economic hardship have morphed into a broader anti-regime movement, drawing sharp reactions from the U.S., which has offered conditional support to demonstrators and threatened consequences for human rights abuses.

U.S. officials have repeatedly emphasized that they are watching developments closely. In remarks to the United Nations Security Council, the U.S. ambassador reaffirmed that Washington is prepared to consider all options – including military action – to respond to threats or significant violence, although diplomatic channels remain open.

The warning comes amid reports that the U.S. military has repositioned forces in the region, including precautionary reductions in personnel at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, as concerns persist about potential direct confrontation.

Iran has also signaled readiness to retaliate if it faces military aggression. Tehran has publicly warned that it would respond forcefully to any attacks and has communicated through regional intermediaries that targeting U.S. bases, or using neighboring airspaces for attacks, would be considered acts of hostility.

SpaceX launches satellites for US government

SpaceX successfully launched a number of reconnaissance satellites for the United States National Reconnaissance Office from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, Azernews reports.

“NRO systems are often the only tools able to access hostile territory or rugged terrain, and they can collect critical information without risking human lives or infringing on other nations’ territorial sovereignty,” the agency said.

The satellites were launched on a Falcon 9 rocket, with the first stage booster previously used for a Starlink satellite mission.

Azerbaijan growing gas exports to Germany and Austria win for economy and diplomacy

Over the past decade, Azerbaijan has steadily transformed from a regional energy player into a pivotal supplier for multiple countries across Europe and the Middle East. This evolution is not merely a story of pipelines and gas volumes; it is a testament to the strategic foresight, economic planning, and diplomatic acumen of the country. The latest developments indicate that Azerbaijan is now delivering natural gas to a record number of nations, a trend that promises significant economic, geopolitical, and social benefits for the country.

Traditionally, Azerbaijan’s natural gas exports were concentrated in its immediate neighborhood. Turkiye and Georgia have long been the cornerstone partners, receiving steady supplies that support domestic energy needs and foster regional interdependence. However, the country’s recent expansion of gas deliveries to a broader array of European nations-including Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Ukraine-marks a decisive shift. In fact, the number of countries receiving Azerbaijani gas is now approaching sixteen, with Germany and Austria joining the network in early 2026. This expansion reflects both the technical achievements of the Southern Gas Corridor and Azerbaijan’s ability to align its energy strategy with the growing demands of a continent seeking secure and sustainable gas sources.

The implications for Azerbaijan’s economy are substantial. Increasing the number of importers naturally diversifies revenue streams, reducing dependency on any single market and stabilizing national income. Gas exports have consistently been a significant contributor to Azerbaijan’s GDP, and with the addition of new markets, this contribution is set to grow further. Diversification also mitigates potential risks associated with fluctuating prices or regional instabilities, ensuring that Azerbaijan’s energy sector remains resilient in a rapidly changing global environment.

Furthermore, the expansion of the gas network fosters long-term economic opportunities beyond energy alone. Countries importing Azerbaijani gas are often interested in broader trade partnerships, investment projects, and infrastructure cooperation. By securing a place in the energy portfolios of multiple European nations, Azerbaijan enhances its geopolitical relevance, creating pathways for investments in sectors such as construction, logistics, and technology. In essence, every new gas contract can become a gateway to deeper bilateral relations and economic growth that extend far beyond the energy sector.

On a diplomatic level, Azerbaijan’s growing gas reach demonstrates its capacity to act as a stabilizing and reliable partner in regional and international energy security. In a Europe increasingly focused on reducing reliance on less stable energy suppliers, Azerbaijan’s consistent deliveries provide a secure alternative. This reliability strengthens trust, paving the way for collaborative projects and strategic dialogues that enhance the country’s global standing. Energy diplomacy, after all, is as much about credibility as it is about infrastructure; Azerbaijan’s expanding customer base reflects a reputation built on dependable supply, technical proficiency, and transparent agreements.

Technically, the achievements are no less impressive. The Southern Gas Corridor, connecting Azerbaijani gas fields to European markets through TANAP and TAP pipelines, represents one of the most complex energy infrastructure projects in recent decades. Its successful operation not only underscores Azerbaijan’s engineering and logistical capabilities but also reinforces its position as a hub linking East and West. By steadily increasing the number of countries that benefit from its gas, Azerbaijan demonstrates the practical advantages of long-term investment in energy infrastructure-a model that other countries can look to when considering how to leverage natural resources for broader national benefit.

Finally, the societal and domestic advantages should not be overlooked. Revenues from expanded gas exports support public services, infrastructure development, and social programs. This creates a virtuous cycle: energy sales fund national development, which in turn strengthens the country’s ability to maintain and expand its energy sector. By increasing the number of countries it serves, Azerbaijan effectively multiplies the positive impact on its citizens’ daily lives.

In conclusion, the expansion of Azerbaijan’s natural gas export network is more than an economic statistic; it is a narrative of strategic foresight, technical achievement, and national growth. Each new country added to the list of gas importers represents a step forward in economic diversification, diplomatic influence, and societal benefit. With Europe and neighboring regions increasingly seeking reliable and sustainable energy sources, Azerbaijan stands out as a trusted partner, converting its natural resources into tangible advantages for both the nation and its global partners. The rising number of gas importers is not just a milestone-it is a reflection of Azerbaijan’s growing role on the world stage, a role defined by reliability, innovation, and mutually beneficial cooperation.

German media highlight Azerbaijan’s first gas deliveries to Germany and Austria [PHOTOS]

A number of leading German publications, including Spiegel, Handelsblatt and Berliner Zeitung, have published extensive coverage of Azerbaijan’s first start of natural gas supplies to Germany and Austria, assessing the move as a significant development for Europe’s energy security.

Azernews reports that the German media frame the development as a concrete contribution to Europe’s broader strategy of reducing its dependence on Russian energy supplies, a policy that gained urgency after Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

German publications recall that the foundation for these supplies was laid during the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Baku in the summer of 2022, when an agreement was reached to increase gas flows to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor. That agreement is described as a turning point in Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

It is noted that Azerbaijani gas supplies to Germany and Austria are carried out through the Southern Gas Corridor and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Gas is transported via Greece and Albania to southern Italy and then forwarded through existing transmission networks to Austria and Germany. With the inclusion of these two new destinations, the number of countries importing Azerbaijani gas has reached sixteen.

In its coverage, Spiegel places particular emphasis on long-term energy cooperation and the stability of supply volumes, underlining the strategic role of Azerbaijani gas for the German market. The publication recalls the ten-year contract signed between SOCAR and SEFE, which envisages annual deliveries of one and a half billion cubic meters of gas. It also highlights that Azerbaijan’s total gas exports to Europe, which reached 12.8 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflect the country’s strengthened position in the European energy market. At the same time, Spiegel notes that any further increase in export volumes will depend on additional investments and the expansion of pipeline capacity.

Handelsblatt, Germany’s leading economic newspaper, approaches the issue from an energy policy perspective. The publication stresses that Azerbaijani gas has become an important element in Europe’s diversification strategy and aligns with the German government’s objective of reducing reliance on Russian gas. According to Handelsblatt, the growing role of Azerbaijani supplies contributes not only to Germany’s energy security but also to the resilience of the European energy system as a whole.

Meanwhile, Berliner Zeitung focuses on the integration of Azerbaijani gas into Europe’s existing infrastructure and the strategic importance of TAP. The newspaper underlines that this marks the first time Azerbaijan has gained official access to the German gas market and describes the Southern Gas Corridor as a strategic artery for Europe’s energy security. It also points out that the flexibility of routing gas through Europe’s interconnected transmission network enhances the reliability and stability of supply to multiple markets.

Overall, the German media coverage presents Azerbaijan’s entry into the German and Austrian gas markets as a milestone in Europe’s ongoing effort to reshape its energy map and strengthen long-term supply security through diversification.

Kazakhstan expands oil exports via BTC as Caspian energy routes gain strategic importance

The dynamics of energy transportation in the Caspian region have been gradually acquiring new meaning in recent years. As volatility in global energy markets intensifies, one of the foremost priorities for both producer and transit countries has become the sustainability and flexibility of export routes. In this context, the growing volumes of Kazakh oil transported via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline should be seen not merely as a logistical adjustment, but as a tangible outcome of regional energy cooperation. The expectation that 1.6 million tons of oil will be shipped from Kazakhstan’s Aktau port through BTC in 2026 is a concrete indicator of this evolving partnership.

In 2025, Kazakhstan exported 1.3 million tons of oil via BTC. The year-on-year increase demonstrates that decisions are being made in a deliberate, phased manner. This is not a haphazard reaction to market shocks, but rather a carefully calibrated adaptation to changing conditions, coupled with the efficient use of existing infrastructure. The shipments carried across the Caspian Sea from Aktau to Baku highlight the stability of the regional logistics chain, underscoring that cooperation is not theoretical but operational.

Recent disruptions in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system have once again brought the importance of diversification to the forefront. When bottlenecks emerged Kazakh companies responded pragmatically, ensuring continuity of energy flows. Roughly 300,000 tons of oil were redirected through the KazTransOil system toward Germany, China, BTC, Novorossiysk, and Ust-Luga. This demonstrated not only technical capacity but also institutional readiness to mobilize resources at the right time. In energy politics, timing is everything, and Kazakhstan’s ability to act swiftly has reinforced its credibility as a reliable supplier.

The BTC pipeline deserves special attention in this process. Operational for nearly two decades, it has played a crucial role in bringing Caspian oil to global markets via the Mediterranean. Kazakhstan’s increasing reliance on BTC validates the pipeline’s multi-functional character and regional significance. For producer countries, BTC offers a stable outlet; for transit countries, it provides a platform of dependable partnership. In a world where energy security is increasingly intertwined with geopolitics, such dual benefits are invaluable.

The risks are not abstract. In November 2025, an attack on CPC’s marine infrastructure at Novorossiysk disabled the VPU-2 remote loading unit, reminding stakeholders of the vulnerabilities inherent in energy logistics. In January 2026, drone strikes against tankers heading toward Black Sea terminals further underscored the fragility of maritime routes. Against this backdrop, activating alternative and already available corridors like BTC is not simply a matter of convenience-it is a necessity for maintaining balance in the energy supply chain. Redundancy, often overlooked in times of stability, becomes the lifeline during crises.

The continuation of redirection measures in January 2026, in light of CPC’s ongoing limitations, illustrates that strategic planning is being implemented consistently. This is not a short-term fix but a long-term resilience model. For energy markets, predictability is a rare and precious commodity. The ability of Kazakhstan and its partners to provide it through diversified routes enhances confidence among consumers and investors alike.

Azerbaijan’s role in this process extends far beyond that of a mere transit country. By facilitating shipments through BTC, Azerbaijan strengthens its position as a trustworthy partner in regional energy cooperation. The passage of Kazakh oil across Azerbaijani territory en route to global markets is a practical manifestation of a cooperation model built on mutual interests in the Caspian basin. This model does not only serve immediate logistical needs; it also contributes to the deepening of economic ties in the long run. Energy corridors, after all, are not just pipelines-they are arteries of regional integration.

The expectation of 1.6 million tons of Kazakh oil flowing through BTC in 2026 is therefore more than a statistic. It is a measure of how energy flows in the Caspian are being managed, how infrastructure is being utilized, and how coordination among partner countries is being elevated. It reflects the real-world outcomes of diversification strategies and the resilience of regional cooperation. In an era when energy politics is increasingly shaped by uncertainty, the BTC pipeline stands as a symbol of continuity and pragmatism.

Ultimately, Kazakhstan’s growing reliance on BTC is a reminder that energy cooperation in the Caspian is not a fleeting experiment but a durable, practical reality. It is a story of adaptation, foresight, and shared interests. And as global energy markets continue to grapple with volatility, the Caspian region’s ability to offer stability through diversified routes may well prove to be one of its most strategic contributions to the world.

Iran detains dozens of alleged riot organizers in Gilan

Iranian authorities have detained 50 alleged riot leaders in the northern province of Gilan following the recent wave of unrest across the country, Azernews reports.

The announcement was made by General Hossein Hasanpour, Chief of Police of Gilan Province, who told local media that security forces are continuing efforts to identify and arrest all individuals involved in what officials describe as riots and disorder.

According to Hasanpour, the total number of detainees in Gilan Province has now exceeded 1,500, indicating the scale of the security operation launched in response to the unrest. He stressed that law enforcement agencies remain on high alert and that investigations are ongoing to determine the roles of those detained, particularly individuals accused of organizing or inciting violence.

The detentions come amid nationwide protests that began in late December, initially triggered by the sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial, soaring inflation, and worsening living conditions. As economic grievances deepened, demonstrations spread to multiple provinces, including northern regions such as Gilan, which have traditionally been less central to large-scale unrest.

While Iranian officials have framed the protests as riots orchestrated by agitators, activists and opposition figures argue that the demonstrations reflect broad public anger over economic mismanagement and declining purchasing power. Reports of clashes between protesters and security forces, as well as deaths and injuries, have circulated on social media and through rights groups, though authorities have not released detailed or comprehensive casualty figures.

’Geyser’ contemporary art exhibition opens in Baku within ‘Oil Boom Smiles at Everyone’ festival [PHOTOS]

The opening of the contemporary art exhibition ‘Geyser’ took place on January 17 at the Museum of Modern Art as part of the ‘Oil Boom Smiles at Everyone’ festival, held with the support of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, sponsored by bp, and organized by the Magsud Ibrahimbeyov Creative Center.

According to Azernews, the opening ceremony was attended by Director of the Heydar Aliyev Center Anar Alakbarov, along with official guests, well-known artists, cultural figures, and members of the public.

The ‘Oil Boom Smiles at Everyone’ festival, running from November 2025 to February 2026, is dedicated to the creative legacy of prominent Azerbaijani writer Magsud Ibrahimbeyov. Built around the cultural and historical context of the oil boom era, the festival brings together various art forms and explores themes of transformation, expectation, and inner tension reflected in the writer’s literary works.

The ‘Geyser’ exhibition is one of the festival’s central projects. Drawing conceptual inspiration from Ibrahimbeyov’s play The Oil Boom Smiles at Everyone, the exhibition offers an immersive reflection on the intersection of personal experience and collective history.

Speaking at the opening, Anna Ibrahimbeyova, Director of the Magsud Ibrahimbeyov Creative Center, described the day as a special milestone for the festival.

‘Today is truly a magnificent event, because young and talented artists are participating in the festival. What pleases me most is that many of them not only create, but also think deeply, turning to the works of Magsud Ibrahimbeyov,’ she said.

She noted that the exhibited works are not literal interpretations but rather impressions and personal artistic responses, transforming literary images and ideas into the language of contemporary visual art.

In his remarks, Anar Alakbarov expressed gratitude to everyone involved in organizing the event and emphasized the importance of the festival, which has been underway since November 2025.

‘The events and performances presented within the framework of the festival are of great significance. I hope this initiative becomes a tradition. Today I met with the artists and saw their remarkable works. I wish each of them success in their future creative paths,’ he said.

Bakhtiyar Aslanbeyli, bp Vice President for Communications and External Relations for the Caspian Region, said the event represents a celebration that has existed and will continue to exist at the intersection of art and literature. He expressed bp’s satisfaction in supporting such a cultural initiative.

Curator of the exhibition Nigar Rzayeva noted that the creative heritage of Magsud Ibrahimbeyov remains vibrant and contemporary, serving as a powerful source of inspiration for artists. She thanked the entire creative team, as well as the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, bp, and the Museum of Modern Art for their support.

After the speeches, guests viewed the exhibition.

Within the project, oil is presented as a defining force shaping the rhythm of Baku, the fate of individuals, and the country’s broader development. It forms an environment in which human relationships have evolved throughout history.

The title ‘Geyser’ refers both to the oil fountain – the eruption of oil to the earth’s surface under pressure – and to the natural principle of a geyser releasing accumulated energy. This impulse, rooted in Ibrahimbeyov’s play, is further developed in the artists’ works.

Nine artists are participating in the exhibition: Fidan Sadig, Irina Eldarova, Kenan Aliyev, Mushfig Heydarov, Nazrin Mammadova, Nigar Familsoy, Orkhan Garayev, Sarkhan Hajiyev, and Vusala Agaraziyeva.

The exhibition consists of two interconnected parts: a conceptual video work based on reinterpreted archival materials, and contemporary artworks that form the main exhibition space. A separate photographic work by Anna Ibrahimbeyova, the initiator of the festival and the wife of Magsud Ibrahimbeyov, is also presented outside the main composition.

Fidan Sadig’s installation ‘Nameless’ addresses the invisible existence of women during the oil boom. A faceless female figure symbolizes the loss of individuality under social pressure, with industrial-era Baku patterns replacing the face and embedding history onto the body.

Irina Eldarova’s ‘Drakaris. Fire-worshippers’ explores solar energy as a primordial life source and a symbol of the Land of Fire, portraying humanity as a collective titan that has mastered fire and built systems to transmit energy from the depths of the earth to the global scale.

Kenan Aliyev’s sculpture ‘Expectation’ centers on anticipation and ascent. Pipes rising chaotically from a pedestal form a closed square referencing the oil cube, emitting sound that grows as viewers approach, evoking memories of Baku during the oil boom. The work is also rooted in the artist’s personal memories of waiting for water during shortages in the 1990s.

In ‘Posthuman,’ Mushfig Heydarov presents a large-scale figure devoid of gender and individuality, shaped by energy, technology, and information. Oil is portrayed as the foundational force driving industrial and digital systems, raising questions about the potential loss of human identity.

Nazrin Mammadova’s abstract work ‘Geyser’ captures the moment when latent energy surfaces, disrupting familiar structures and reflecting the tension of transition between collapse and formation, with visual associations to the Absheron landscape.

Nigar Familsoy’s painting ‘Side Effect’ features a crow as a silent witness to historical turning points, set against an aggressive yellow field symbolizing the blinding light of progress and the irreversible consequences of the oil and technological boom.

Orkhan Garayev’s ‘Curtain’ examines contradictions between visible prosperity and invisible labor. Triangular lamellas create shifting images that only become clear through movement, serving as a metaphor for fragmented perception and hidden realities.

Sarkhan Hajiyev’s video work ‘Interval’ explores the space between material and digital realities, where oil emerges as primordial memory and gives rise to a butterfly symbolizing consciousness. A second video piece, based on archival materials from the Azerbaijan State Film Fund, presents oil as an inseparable part of everyday life and history.

Vusala Agaraziyeva’s painting ‘Field’ draws on documentary images of oil workers immersed in oil, depicting a space where human and matter merge. This theme continues in her installation ‘Center,’ featuring a rotating wooden form and oilman’s gloves as a quiet testimony to labor and human endurance.

The contemporary art exhibition ‘Geyser’ will run at the Museum of Modern Art until February 2.

Russia ‘open to cooperation’ with US in Arctic

Russia is “open to mutually beneficial cooperation” with the United States and other Western countries in the Arctic, Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolay Korchunov said on Saturday. He told Ria Novosti that such a move would require a return to “equal dialogue”, Azernews reports.

Korchunov commented on the US House introducing a bill to annex Greenland, as well as the Trump administration’s insistence on the need to control the territory.

“We believe it is important to maintain a pragmatic attitude in the Arctic, regardless of the course and internal problems of Western states, resolutely defending their national interests in the region,” he said.

Previously, Moscow has expressed serious concern over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) accelerated militarization of the Arctic amid the alliance’s calls for increased military support for Greenland, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.

Responding to a question about NATO’s reaction to recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump on Greenland, including the alliance’s reported plans for military operations on the island, the ministry said the situation in high latitudes is causing “the gravest concern.”

Russia consistently adheres to the position that the Arctic should remain a territory of peace, dialogue and equal cooperation, it said.

As the largest Arctic state, Russia said it makes a significant contribution to the region’s development and consistently advocates peace and stability in the North.

It added that it expects a similar approach from other countries and remains open to pragmatic cooperation in the Arctic with partners willing to engage in equal and respectful dialogue.

At the same time, the ministry said it sees no readiness within NATO to address Arctic issues constructively and regards the line pursued by the alliance toward escalating confrontation in the Arctic as “counterproductive and extremely dangerous.”

Khamenei says Iran considers Trump a ‘criminal’

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says that Iran considers US President Donald Trump a ‘criminal’ for inflicting casualties, damage, and slander on the Iranian people during the protests, Azernews reports.

‘The latest anti-Iran sedition was different in that the US President personally became involved,’ Iranian media quoted Khamenei as saying.

Earlier, amid the Iran protests, Khamenei had called Trump “arrogant”, asking him to focus on problems within the United States. He also said the US President would be overthrown like the imperial dynasty that ruled Iran up to the 1979 revolution.

Trump has issued multiple warnings to Iran’s authorities, threatening to use military action if Iran killed protestors. The son of Iran’s ousted shah, Reza Pahlavi, also repeatedly urged US intervention. Despite Trump’s claims that “help was on the way” to Iranian people, he has so far held off acting.

Reports emerged on Thursday that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman led “a long, frantic, diplomatic last-minute effort to convince President Trump to give Iran a chance to show good intention”.

However, Trump said that he “convinced himself” against striking Iran, claiming that this was due to Iran “cancelling 800 hangings” that had been scheduled.