Category: Business Daily

South African Airways (SAA) is now the most punctual airline in Africa, having overtaken Kenya Airways (KQ) and Ethiopian Airlines (ET) in on-time arrivals, underscoring how aircraft groundings and global parts shortages have disrupted operations at some of the continent’s largest carriers.

Flight records show that the South African flag carrier emerged as Africa’s most punctual airline in 2025, despite operating a significantly smaller fleet and route network than its East African rivals.

According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, SAA landed 81.26 percent of its 24,461 flights on time, making it the continent’s top-performing flag carrier in punctuality.

The result marks a notable shift. Kenya Airways had been Africa’s most punctual flag carrier in both 2023 and 2024, while Ethiopian Airlines dominated the ranking for five consecutive years before that. During their peak years, both airlines consistently completed more than 70 percent of flights on schedule.

Kenya Airways’ on-time performance in 2025 stood at about 76 percent, an improvement from 72 percent the previous year.

However, it still lagged behind leading airlines in the broader Middle East and Africa region, where operational resilience has increasingly become a competitive advantage.

Ethiopian Airlines’ performance has been sliding since 2023. In 2022, the Addis Ababa-based carrier ranked sixth in the Middle East and Africa region and first in Africa, with 77 percent of its flights arriving on time.

Its punctuality dropped to below 70 percent in 2023, and it has since struggled to reclaim its position as Africa’s most reliable flag carrier, despite remaining the continent’s largest airline by passenger numbers and fleet size.

Industry analysts attribute the decline in punctuality at both KQ and ET largely to a worldwide shortage of aircraft parts, which has prolonged maintenance cycles and forced airlines to ground aircraft for extended periods.

The shortage, which followed supply chain disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic, has continued to weigh heavily on global aviation.

Throughout 2025, Kenya Airways had at least 11 aircraft grounded at various points for maintenance, significantly constraining capacity and triggering delays and cancellations across its network. Ethiopian Airlines similarly had eight planes grounded during the year.

South African Airways, by contrast, appears to have largely sidestepped the crisis. None of its 20 aircraft were grounded during the period, allowing the airline to maintain schedule integrity and benefit from its leaner operations.

Beyond flag carriers, South Africa’s low-cost airline Safair retained its position as the most punctual airline in both the Middle East and Africa regions. Safair completed 91 percent of its flights on time in 2025, highlighting how simpler fleets and shorter turnaround times can enhance reliability.

On-time performance is a critical metric in aviation, closely tied to customer satisfaction and operating costs. Persistent delays can expose airlines to regulatory scrutiny, financial penalties and higher compensation payouts, while also eroding passenger loyalty in an increasingly competitive market.

As global supply chains gradually stabilise, Africa’s major carriers are expected to focus more aggressively on fleet reliability and maintenance planning, with punctuality likely to remain a key battleground for market leadership.

In 1854, London was struck by a devastating cholera outbreak. Public authorities responded using the best tools and scientific understanding available at the time.

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Disease was widely believed to spread through ‘bad air,’ and policy responses focused on sanitation measures consistent with that view. Yet despite these efforts, the outbreak persisted.

What eventually changed the course of events was not a failure of institutions or expertise, but the use of more detailed information. Physician John Snow mapped cholera deaths across neighbourhoods and observed a striking pattern: cases clustered around a single public water pump on Broad Street.

When access to the pump was restricted, infections declined rapidly. The episode is now remembered as an early demonstration of how additional data can sharpen public decision-making, even when institutions are acting in good faith.

Snow did not have computers, algorithms, or modern data infrastructure. What he had was a richer view of the problem-one that allowed patterns to emerge that were previously invisible.

Today, advances in data science and machine learning offer policymakers the same advantage, but at far greater scale, speed, and scope.

For decades, public policy has relied primarily on periodic national surveys, broad averages, and delayed indicators. These tools remain valuable and indispensable.

However, they are increasingly complemented by machine-learning techniques that can draw insights from administrative and transactional data generated every day. This shift quietly changes what is possible. Decision-making no longer has to depend solely on infrequent snapshots of reality; it can be informed by near-real-time signals of behaviour, not just outcomes.

At the core of this transformation is a simple idea. Machine learning allows policymakers to combine many pieces of information-each imperfect on its own-into a clearer overall picture.

Income proxies, consumption patterns, administrative records, and transaction data can be analysed together to produce individual-level or firm-level assessments that dramatically reduce information asymmetry. Policy moves from designing for the ‘average citizen’ toward targeted, evidence-based intervention.

This capability has practical implications across multiple policy areas.

In higher education funding, for example, means testing has traditionally relied on self-reported income, household surveys, and appeals processes. These methods are costly, slow, and often contested.

Machine learning offers an opportunity to complement them by combining indicators such as parental employment history, utility usage, property characteristics, and school background.

The result is not surveillance, but fairer and more defensible allocation of limited funding, with reduced gaming of the system and faster decision-making. In practical terms, means testing shifts from being declaration-based to evidence-based.

A similar logic applies to insurance pricing and social protection. Flat premiums, while simple, often penalise low-risk households and under-price high-risk behaviour.

By analysing behavioural and claims data, machine-learning models can help design fairer premium bands, expand coverage, and maintain sustainability of insurance pools. This approach naturally extends to discussions around national health insurance and universal health coverage, where balancing affordability, inclusion, and financial sustainability is critical.

Universal Health Coverage presents an even clearer case. One of the biggest challenges in targeting subsidies is identifying who is truly vulnerable, especially in economies with large informal sectors where income is difficult to observe directly.

Machine learning allows vulnerability to be inferred from patterns in health utilisation, payment behaviour, and geographic and demographic indicators. Better targeting means reduced leakage, more efficient use of public funds, and ultimately, more people covered with the same budget.

Tax policy provides another important example. Informal economic activity is often described as ‘invisible,’ leading to blunt enforcement approaches that are costly and sometimes counterproductive. Predictive analytics allows tax systems to estimate economic activity using signals such as mobile money flows, utility consumption, licensing data, and transport patterns.

This enables a policy shift-from enforcement to graduation, and from penalties to progressive inclusion. Machine learning, in this sense, allows tax systems to understand before they enforce.

Revenue forecasting at both county and national levels also stands to benefit. Traditional projections often miss turning points, detecting shocks only after revenues have already deviated from targets.

By incorporating real-time economic indicators, administrative collection data, and sector-level signals, machine-learning models can act as early warning systems, supporting more credible budgeting and fiscal planning.

At a more advanced level, machine learning enables firm-level micro-simulation. Policies rarely affect all firms in the same way. By simulating tax changes, incentives, or shocks across heterogeneous firms, policymakers can test the likely effects of interventions before implementation, reducing unintended consequences and improving policy design.

The unifying advantage across these applications is reduced information asymmetry. With sufficient high-quality data, machine learning can approximate a near-complete picture of economic behaviour-not perfectly, and not invasively, but far more accurately than traditional methods alone. Guesswork is replaced with evidence; broad assumptions give way to targeted insight.

This does not imply perfect surveillance, nor does it suggest abandoning established safeguards. Data protection and privacy are non-negotiable, and institutions are right to be cautious. In practice, however, data is often fragmented across agencies, locked in silos, or accessible only in highly constrained ways.

These limitations are understandable, but they also constrain the public value that data can generate.

The real policy challenge, therefore, is not whether to protect data, but how to unlock its value responsibly. Secure data environments, anonymization and aggregation, controlled access for policy modelling, and clear governance frameworks make it possible to balance confidentiality with public benefit. Data protection and data use are not opposites; they are complements.

Kenya already possesses much of the data needed to make this shift. The analytical tools are mature and increasingly accessible. What remains is a deliberate move toward policy-driven data governance-one that encourages responsible use of data to improve fairness, efficiency, and trust in public decisions.

Just as better data once helped resolve a public health crisis, machine learning now presents an opportunity to strengthen decision-making across education, health, taxation, and public finance. The future of public policy will belong to governments that can learn from their data-securely, responsibly, and intelligently.

As yields on money market funds (MMFs) ease, investors are increasingly rotating cash into higher-return assets such as equities, fixed income and alternative investments. The shift is understandable: many Kenyans are eager to squeeze more value from their money.

But financial experts warn that chasing returns without fully accounting for liquidity could prove be a costly miscalculation. In uncertain economic conditions, access to cash can matter just as much as headline yields. The real question, they argue, is whether sacrificing liquidity in pursuit of higher returns actually makes financial sense.

Liquidity first, returns second

MMFs, by design, are not meant to compete with growth assets. Their core purpose is to preserve capital, maintain liquidity and protect purchasing power, a distinction that often gets blurred when investors compare asset classes purely on returns.

According to Elizabeth Irungu, chief executive of Absa Asset Management, MMFs should be judged by a different standard altogether, especially when they are used for short-term financial needs.

‘One of the objectives in investing is first to retain your capital and beat inflation, that means your money is never idle at any one time. The return is not your number one consideration as an investor,’ Ms Irungu says.

With inflation in Kenya hovering around 4.5 percent, she explains, any return above that level ensures money is working harder than the shilling is losing value. ‘That’s really why you would get a MMF,’ she says.

Ms Irungu is clear that MMFs are not substitutes for growth-oriented investments. Rather, they play a defined role within a diversified portfolio.

‘For example, if you are saving toward retirement, you need equities because that’s where capital is multiplied through capital gains rather than interest income. That is how wealth is built,’ she says.

Similarly, long-term goals such as saving for a child’s university education, especially if the time horizon is more than a decade, demand exposure to assets that can compound over time.

‘A money market fund would not be an option in that case. You want your money in a place where it can grow and compound,’ she says.

Age also influences suitability. For investors in or past retirement, MMFs become more relevant as the capacity to withstand market volatility diminishes. ‘At that age, the ability to withstand ups and downs in markets especially like equities may not be as resilient,’ Ms Irungu says.

What underpins MMF stability

The relative stability of MMFs, particularly during periods of market stress, comes down to what they invest in.

‘The ideal way of investing for MMFs is definitely to look for short-term investment securities that are interest-earning and have very low credit risk,’ Ms Irungu says.

These include bank deposits and fixed deposits spread across commercial banks with different risk ratings, as well as Treasury bills and short-term government bonds, typically capped at two to five years.

MMFs may also invest in commercial paper – short-term lending to corporates – though counterparty selection is critical. ‘Commercial papers are not bad, but selection of the counterparty is very important,’ says Ms Irungu. Some funds also hold credit-linked notes structured by banks to offer short-term exposure to longer-dated instruments such as Eurobonds.

‘This allows you to avoid buying a 10-year bond directly and instead hold a one- or two-year instrument that draws returns from it. It’s a derivative structure curated around another instrument,’ says Ms Irungu.

This conservative asset mix allows fund managers to offer high liquidity, often enabling investors to access funds within 72 hours without disrupting the portfolio, a defining feature of MMFs.

The overlooked cost

As investors move away from MMFs in search of higher returns, they often underestimate the risks they are taking on.

‘Every return comes loaded with a risk element. Higher returns often mean higher credit risk, the risk that you may not be paid,’ Ms Irungu says.

Volatility is another frequently overlooked factor. ‘People forget that prices that rise sharply can also fall just as significantly,’ adds Ms Irungu.

Kennedy Monyoncho, a director at Enwealth Financial Services, says the appeal of MMFs lies less in yield and more in flexibility, a benefit many investors only appreciate when it is gone.

‘MMFs have a level of flexibility that is very different from traditional products like savings or current accounts,’ he says. ‘If I can access my money as and when I need it, I would rather have that than lock it away in a fixed deposit for three, six, or 12 months.’

Unlike fixed deposits and some insurance-linked products that restrict access, MMFs allow investors to earn interest while retaining control over their capital.

Some funds also hold credit-linked notes structured by banks to offer short-term exposure to longer-dated instruments such as Eurobonds.

‘This allows you to avoid buying a 10-year bond directly and instead hold a one- or two-year instrument that draws returns from it. It’s a derivative structure curated around another instrument,’ says Ms Irungu.

This conservative asset mix allows fund managers to offer high liquidity, often enabling investors to access funds within 72 hours without disrupting the portfolio, a defining feature of MMFs.

The overlooked cost

As investors move away from MMFs in search of higher returns, they often underestimate the risks they are taking on.

‘Every return comes loaded with a risk element. Higher returns often mean higher credit risk, the risk that you may not be paid,’ Ms Irungu says.

Volatility is another frequently overlooked factor. ‘People forget that prices that rise sharply can also fall just as significantly,’ adds Ms Irungu.

Kennedy Monyoncho, a director at Enwealth Financial Services, says the appeal of MMFs lies less in yield and more in flexibility, a benefit many investors only appreciate when it is gone.

‘MMFs have a level of flexibility that is very different from traditional products like savings or current accounts,’ he says. ‘If I can access my money as and when I need it, I would rather have that than lock it away in a fixed deposit for three, six, or 12 months.’

Unlike fixed deposits and some insurance-linked products that restrict access, MMFs allow investors to earn interest while retaining control over their capital.

Using MMFs intentionally

Mr Monyoncho cautions that MMFs only function as effective financial buffers if investors structure them deliberately. ‘MMF does not automatically become a buffer unless you deliberately make it one,’ he says.

He illustrates this with a simple cash-flow example. ‘If my monthly spend is about Sh100,000, and I want a buffer of Sh50,000 per month, then I need an investment that generates Sh600,000 a year,’ he says. ‘If that return represents about 10 percent, then I need roughly Sh6 million invested in MMF.’

For investors considering reducing their MMF allocation, he advises gradual adjustments guided by clear goals rather than abrupt exits.

‘Your goals determine your investment mix,’ he says. ‘If you’re planning to raise funds for a house deposit in 10 years, I would rather you tilt more toward equities.’

Einstein Kihanda, chief executive of ICEA Lion Asset Management, says decisions around MMFs should start with understanding their purpose and structure.

Liquidity, he argues, often overrides yield. ‘You may be chasing returns, but if you cannot meet the liquidity needs, then you defeat the entire purpose of a money market fund,’ Mr Kihanda says.

Equities and fixed income funds, by contrast, are built around different risk-return dynamics – from issuers’ ability to meet obligations to companies’ earnings capacity and capital gains potential.

‘The mistake is looking only at the yield and forgetting the overriding market levels,’ he says.

Backbone of short-term capital

Victor Marangu, chief executive of WealthPro Africa, frames MMFs more bluntly.

‘Most investors misunderstand MMFs. They are not long-term investments. They are short-term liquidity plays,’ he says.

He describes MMFs as an upgrade to traditional savings accounts. While bank savings typically earn 4 to 5 percent, MMFs generate between 8 and 12 percent, helping investors preserve value over the short term once inflation is considered.

‘At those levels, you’re not necessarily growing wealth, but you’re protecting it,’ Mr Marangu says.

MMFs also serve as a staging ground for larger investments. Of the more than Sh600 billion invested in collective investment schemes in Kenya, he notes, roughly Sh400 billion sits in MMFs.

‘If you’re chasing high returns, you’re using the wrong tool,’ he says. ‘MMFs are about liquidity, capital preservation and discipline – not speculation.’

Local institutional investors piled into listed stocks at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) to increase their equities holdings as individuals cashed out to realise gains from last year’s market rally.

Foreign investors were also net sellers of local stocks, increasing the pool of shares available to local companies for purchase.

Data from the Nairobi bourse shows local firms closed 2025 with Sh14.5 billion in net equity purchases while local individual investors were net sellers, disposing of Sh2.59 billion shares over the same period.

The net sales by retail investors came in the backdrop of the market posting a record 51.8 percent gains across the year with investor wealth rising by more than Sh 1 trillion from Sh1.93 trillion at the end 2024 to Sh2.94 trillion on December 31, 2025.

Local corporations purchased Sh67.5 billion shares in 2025 and only sold Sh53 billion stocks in the same period.

Total purchases by local retail investors stood at Sh30.2 billion but were surpassed by sales at Sh32.7 billion.

The sell-off by individual investors is expected to increase equity ownership by local institutions which are viewed to have a longer investment horizon in the market in comparison to retail investors.

Investment bank Rock Advisors research analyst Teddy Irungu said retail investors sold stocks in 2025 as they looked to cash in from back-to-back years of capital gains, especially from blue-chip firms such as Safaricom and KCB Group.

‘Individual investors were mostly profit-taking as the market posted gains of 51 percent on a year-over-year basis. They thought it was a good time to cash out having marked strong gains across 2024 and 2025,’ he said.

‘Corporates have been buyers as they move to rebalance their portfolios and position themselves for dividends with the performance of listed firms in 2025, especially those in financial services, being projected to be excellent, yielding improved shareholder payouts.’

Corporates are widely assessed to have a pragmatic approach in equities, investing as they must maintain stocks within their investment portfolios.

Retail investors meanwhile tend to hold a short-term investment horizon on equites.

Equity turnover at the NSE recovered to hit a five- year high of Sh145.47 billion from Sh105.97 billion in 2024 as the share prices rally drove activity at the Nairobi bourse while the volume of shares traded stood at 6.3 billion.

The gains in share prices were widespread with small firms leading the way during the year.

Uchumi Supermarkets led the market with a gain of 505.8 percent to trade at Sh1.03 per share from 17 cents with the rally being driven mainly by speculation that the company was returning to a better footing after posting a rare profit.

Other top gainers for 2025 were Sameer Africa Plc (486.4 percent), Home Africa (262.1 percent) and the NSE (237.5 percent).

Gains for the largest listed firm by market capitalisation -Safaricom- stood at 66.2 percent with its share price rising from Sh17.05 at the end of December 2024 to Sh28.35 in the review period.

Deal-making and new listings are tipped to drive fresh retail investor interest in the NSE as individuals seek specific entry points to return to market.

The proposed acquisition of a controlling stake in NCBA Group by South Africa’s Nedbank has for instance driven the demand for the lender’s shares in early 2026 while the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) initial public offer is currently open until February 19.

‘Individual investors are strategically positioning for the next best opportunity. We are seeing mergers and acquisitions and other deals and have the KPC initial offering,’ added Mr Irungu.

Like individual investors, foreign investors were also net sellers in 2025, posting Sh11.8 billion in net portfolio outflows as per Capital Markets Authority data.

The foreigners recorded Sh2.48 billion in total inflows against Sh14.3 billion in total outflows.

The exits by foreigners in 2025 were attributed to the offshore investors seeking positions in advanced economies to take advantage of the AI stocks powered market rally which presented relatively higher returns to investing locally.

A Nairobi businesswoman has been ordered by the High Court to pay Sh2.5 million in damages for operating a school under the name ‘Johari School,’ misleadingly presenting it as an established competitor in the education industry.

The court ruled that Rosemary Wambugu infringed on the goodwill of Johari School Limited by using a confusingly similar name for her daycare and kindergarten facility along Kiambu Road.

‘It is clear that the plaintiff (Johari School Limited) has proved that the defendant passed off her services as those of the plaintiff. Considering the plaintiff’s established goodwill and the defendant’s contempt of prior court orders, I assess general damages at Sh2.5 million,’ the judge stated.

The legal dispute involved Johari School Limited, incorporated in July 2011, and Ms Wambugu, who operated Johari Daycare and Kindergarten, established in 2014.

Johari School Limited filed a suit in 2018, stating that it had registered and operated under the name since 2011, receiving full registration from the Ministry of Education in January 2012 and building a strong reputation and enrollment base.

The company argued that Ms Wambugu later adopted the same name to run an institution, causing confusion among parents and business partners. It claimed her actions were opportunistic and intended to profit from its established brand.

Despite a demand notice, Johari School Limited and its director, Salome Beacco, said Ms Wambugu continued using the name, forcing them to seek legal remedies, including declarations, an injunction, damages and costs.

But Ms Wambugu denied wrongdoing, stating that she lawfully registered her business name in January 2014, after an approved name search by the registrar, who did not reject it on grounds of potential confusion.

She maintained that she was unaware of Johari School Limited’s existence at the time and argued that ‘Johari’-a Kiswahili word meaning ‘jewel’-could not be exclusively owned.

Ms Wambugu also contended that Johari School Limited had not trademarked the name and that prior company registration did not grant exclusive rights.

In a counterclaim, she accused the company of malice and sought damages. However, the court dismissed her arguments, ruling that the case hinged on passing off rather than trademark registration.

The court issued a permanent injunction barring Ms Wambugu from using ‘Johari School’ or any confusingly similar variation and dismissed her counterclaim with costs.

The court defined passing off as ‘falsely representing one’s own product as that of another in an attempt to deceive potential buyers.’

The judge noted that under the Trade Marks Act, a party can sue for passing off even without a registered trademark. To succeed, a claimant must prove goodwill, misrepresentation, and damage or likelihood of damage.

Applying this test, the court found that Johari School Limited had operated continuously since 2011 and established goodwill. It also determined that Ms Wambugu registered ‘Johari Daycare and Kindergarten’ in 2014 and later sought Ministry of Education registration as ‘Johari School’ and ‘C.I Johari School.’

‘It is clear that the names of the two schools are strikingly similar, and an ordinary person may conclude that the two entities are related or the same,’ the court observed.

The ruling stated that both institutions targeted the same market and that Ms Wambugu’s services were ‘not distinguishable when viewed as a whole,’ creating confusion.

Regarding damages, the judge noted that the law presumes loss where goodwill is undermined through passing off. While precise computation was difficult, relevant factors justified the Sh2.5 million award.

The High Court in Nairobi has upheld a Capital Markets Tribunal decision holding Dyer and Blair Investment Bank liable for a fraudulent transfer of shares owned by a deceased person three decades ago.

Affirming the regulator’s authority to enforce investor protection even decades later, the court ruled that stockbrokers owe their clients a duty of care in capital markets transactions.

The court dismissed the investment bank’s appeal and upheld an enforcement directive issued by the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) in March 2018, requiring partial compensation to the estate of the late Patricia Wanjiku.

The dispute stemmed from the irregular disposal of her KCB bank and Standard Chartered Bank of Kenya (SCBK) shares shortly after her death in 1995.

The case originated from a complaint filed in August 2013 by John Maina, the deceased’s son and estate administrator, who alleged that 150 KCB shares and 600 SCBK shares were transferred using forged documents in November 1995.

Dyer and Blair, as the broker, was mandated to facilitate the transfer of the shares and to collect the various documents required to enable the transfer. The documentation included share transfer forms, client identification and original share certificates, which would then be forwarded to the registrar for verification.

Investigations later confirmed that the signatures on the transfer forms were fraudulent, prompting regulatory action.

On March 6, 2018, the CMA ordered Dyer and Blair to compensate the estate with 50 percent of the dividends (Sh125,074) and reinstate 50 percent of the irregularly disposed securities (1,330 KCB shares and 550 SCBK shares) resulting from the 1995 sale.

The number of shares owned by an investor can grow over time even without additional investments, as listed companies can issue bonus shares or split their stock in any year.

This decision was affirmed by the tribunal in March 2024, leading Dyer and Blair to challenge it in the High Court.

The investment bank contested both the tribunal’s and the regulator’s findings, arguing that the family’s claim was time-barred since it was raised nearly 22 years after the sale.

Section 21 of the Limitation of Actions Act sets a 12-year limit from when the cause of action arises. The bank also claimed the complainant lacked legal standing and that modern regulatory duties were improperly applied to pre-existing transactions.

Additionally, it argued that registrars – not brokers – were responsible for signature verification at the time, stating that it merely processed documents and relied on registrars for authentication without access to specimen signatures.

However, the court rejected these arguments, agreeing with the tribunal that limitation periods in fraud cases begin only upon discovery of wrongdoing.

‘Those defenses were not ignored; they were assessed and rejected on the basis that, as a licensed market intermediary, the appellant owed its clients a duty of care to verify instructions and detect anomalies, particularly in fraudulent transfers,’ the court stated.

The court ruled that the complaint was validly considered after investigations in 2015 confirmed forgery.

‘The cause of action arose upon discovery of the alleged fraud, not in 1995 when the shares were transferred,’ the judge held.

Regarding Mr Maina’s legal standing, the court noted that the issue had not been raised earlier before the regulator or tribunal and could not be introduced on appeal.

It also found that evidence confirmed his authority to act for the estate, dismissing claims that the proceedings were invalid.

The court further rejected arguments about retrospective regulation, clarifying that the tribunal relied on longstanding common law duties of stockbrokers rather than applying newer rules.

References to updated regulations, it said, merely illustrated evolving standards. The judgment emphasised that brokers act as agents and must exercise reasonable care and skill.

‘The relationship between a stockbroker and a client is one of principal and agent,’ the court observed, adding that fiduciary duties existed even before formal codification.

These duties, it ruled, obligate brokers to verify instructions and flag anomalies, especially where fraud is suspected.

The court ultimately upheld the sanctions, finding no error in ordering Dyer and Blair to compensate the estate, and dismissed the appeal.

Education is often described as transformative, and rightly so. It shapes lives, expands opportunity and underpins social and economic progress.

Yet more than 70 years after the global community declared education a basic human right, millions of children and young people around the world remain excluded from learning in ways that are both persistent and predictable.

As the world marks International Day of Education, the more difficult task is not restating the principle, but confronting why delivery continues to fall so far short.

The right to education is clearly established in international law. Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirms that everyone has the right to education and that elementary education should be free and compulsory.

The Convention on the Rights of the Child later reinforced this obligation, requiring states to make education accessible at all levels, using every appropriate means. These commitments were never framed as optional. They assumed duty, not goodwill.

That same logic carried through to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, where education was positioned as central to all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

SDG 4 committed the world to inclusive and equitable quality education and lifelong learning by 2030. Nearly a decade later, the distance between aspiration and reality remains uncomfortable.

Data from the Unesco Institute for Statistics indicates that progress in reducing out-of-school numbers has been slow and uneven, with the burden of exclusion remaining concentrated in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

As of 2023, an estimated 272 million children and young people were out of school globally. The majority live in poorer countries, while high-income countries account for only a small share. The pattern is long-standing and consistent: a child’s chances of completing school continue to depend heavily on where they are born and the circumstances they inherit.

What is striking is not just the scale of exclusion, but how foreseeable it is. Education outcomes continue to track closely with poverty, gender, geography, disability, displacement and conflict.

Systems know, in advance, which children are most likely to fall out. When the same groups are excluded year after year, this can no longer be explained away as misfortune or individual failure. It reflects how systems are financed, designed and prioritised.

The costs of this failure accumulate over time. Education remains one of the strongest predictors of income, employment stability, health outcomes and civic participation. When education systems do not work for large segments of the population, societies absorb the consequences through unemployment, informality, inequality and slower growth.

Where education systems are inclusive and responsive, they support resilience and shared prosperity. Where they are not, inequality becomes entrenched.

Treating education as a right therefore requires more than expanding access or enrollment. It requires systems that are deliberately designed around those most likely to be excluded.

Uniform provision in unequal contexts does not produce fairness. It reproduces disadvantage. Learners whose circumstances or talents fall outside standard pathways are often the first to exit, and their departure is too often misread as a personal shortcoming rather than a system design problem.

Legal frameworks and global declarations matter. They set norms and expectations. But they do not deliver education on their own. Governments must finance education as a core public obligation and invest in systems capable of responding to inequality.

The private sector has a stake in strengthening human capital as the foundation of long-term economic participation. Civil society and communities must continue to press for accountability, particularly where exclusion is well known and poorly addressed.

Ultimately, the credibility of education as a human right will be judged less by what we affirm on international days, and more by whether education systems are intentionally built to reach those they have long and predictably left behind.

For much of the last three decades, following the end of the Cold War, governments were encouraged to step back and let markets decide. Growth, we were told, would follow efficiency, openness and integration.

In 2026, that advice no longer reflects how industry grows or how economic success is shaped. This is not because markets have failed. Markets still matter, but they no longer operate in isolation from public policy.

A sequence of shocks from the global financial crisis to the pandemic exposed the limits of relying on efficiency alone to deliver resilience, inclusion and long-term growth.

By early 2020s, it became clear that leaving growth entirely to markets was no longer sufficient. As economist Dani Rodrik has observed, in An Industrial Policy for Good Jobs (2022, governments played a role in shaping economies but what has changed is that industrial policy is now being pursued more openly and deliberately.

Across the world, production decisions are being influenced by incentives, standards, public procurement, domestic content rules and long-term national priorities.

For business leaders, this means the environment in which firms operate is becoming more structured, more directional, and more consequential.

This shift is evident in everything from large-scale clean energy incentives in advanced economies to local content requirements in infrastructure and manufacturing across emerging markets.

The old industrial logic assumed that firms would naturally locate where costs were lowest and regulations were lightest. Today, that assumption is giving way to a more complex reality.

Governments are actively steering growth towards priority sectors such as clean energy, advanced manufacturing, food systems, life sciences, the digital economy, and digital infrastructure.

They are doing so, not to replace markets, but to address vulnerabilities such as supply disruptions, skills shortages and infrastructure gaps.

As a result, growth is being shaped by where ecosystems exist, not just where costs are cheapest. Firms are looking for places with reliable power, skilled workers, policy stability, access to finance and credible long-term demand. Countries that organise these elements effectively are being pulled ahead.

What does this mean for business? In 2026, companies will be rewarded for a deeper understanding of policy environments. Strategic decisions about where to invest, expand, or source inputs will depend not only on commercial calculations, but also on how governments signal priorities and enforce rules.

This does not mean business aligning politically. It means business must become more policy literate. Understanding incentive schemes, regulatory trajectories and national development strategies is now a core commercial skill.

Firms that treat public policy as background noise risk misreading markets. Those who engage constructively while remaining commercially disciplined will be better positioned to manage risk and capture opportunity.

For developing and emerging economies, the changing growth model presents both opportunity and risk.

On the one hand, the reorganisation of global production is opening space for new industrial hubs. Countries that can offer credible strategies, targeted support and predictable rules are attracting investment into manufacturing, processing and services that were previously out of reach.

On the other hand, the margin for error is narrowing for governments. Competing purely on low costs is no longer sufficient. Nor is offering open-ended incentives without building underlying capabilities.

Growth in 2026 will increasingly favour countries that are deliberate, focused and disciplined in how they support industry.

This places a premium on industrial strategy as a practical framework that aligns incentives, skills, infrastructure, finance and regulation around a small number of priorities.

One of the most important shifts underway is the changing role of the state. Governments are not just regulating markets; they are helping organise them. This requires a different kind of public capacity as successful industrial strategies depend on coordination across government, engagement with the private sector, and the ability to adapt when conditions change.

In 2026, the countries that succeed will be those that govern best. Policy consistency, institutional credibility and execution capacity will matter more than headline incentives or grand promises.

It is tempting to view the current moment as temporary or as a response to recent disruptions that will fade as conditions stabilise. That would be a mistake. What is unfolding is a structural shift in how growth is organised.

Industry is now being shaped deliberately and selectively, placing a premium on quality of strategy and execution. For business leaders, this requires rethinking how risk and opportunity are assessed.

For policymakers, it demands moving beyond slogans to execution.

For countries seeking sustainable growth, it means recognising that 2026 is not just another year, but a moment when policy choices, investment decisions and institutional capabilities begin to lock in industrial trajectories for years to come.

The choices made in 2026 will determine which economies build durable industrial capabilities and which fall behind.

A tea processing firm, Korara Highlands Tea Factory, has been dealt a blow after the High Court allowed KCB to auction its assets over a Sh1 billion debt.

The Kericho-based tea processing company, producer of the Cyrus Premium Tea brand, had sought to stop the sale, arguing that it had secured a prospective buyer in a deal worth up to $10 million (Sh1.29 billion), which would allow it to settle the debt.

However, the court ruled that anticipated transactions could not override a lender’s accrued rights and that the borrower had failed to justify an injunction.

The court dismissed an application by Korara and two of its directors, Titus Kigen and Victor Kipkosgei Kigen, seeking to prevent KCB from exercising its statutory power of sale over several properties pledged as security.

The dispute stemmed from credit facilities extended by the bank in June 2023, including an overdraft, term loan, asset-based finance and insurance premium finance, totalling Sh128.1 million and $2.67 million (Sh345.5 million). These facilities were secured by seven properties in Kajiado and Kericho.

Korara moved to court after KCB issued a statutory notice demanding Sh281 million and indicating an outstanding balance exceeding Sh1.05 billion as of March 6, 2025. This was followed by a redemption notice issued through auctioneers.

The tea processor claimed it had continued servicing the loans and accused the bank of issuing defective statutory notices, imposing ‘illegal, unconscionable, and usurious’ interest rates, and obstructing a planned sale to an investor valued at up to $10 million (Sh1.29 billion).

Korara argued that this deal would allow it to clear its debt and that KCB’s actions would cause irreparable harm unless restrained.

The company, which was placed under administration last year amid financial distress, also contended that the statutory notice was not served on the two principal debtors and their spouses.

KCB opposed the application, stating that Korara had persistently defaulted despite repeated restructuring discussions. The bank maintained that all notices under the Land Act were lawfully issued, served and acknowledged, accusing the borrower of using litigation to delay recovery.

In dismissing the application, the court found that Korara had not met the legal threshold for an injunction.

‘It is not in dispute that the applicant obtained the loan facilities from the interested party (KCB) and charged the suit properties as security,’ the court said. ‘It is equally not contested that the loan accounts are in arrears.’

Regarding the challenge to statutory notices, the court ruled that the bank had complied with legal requirements.

‘The court is not persuaded that the applicants have demonstrated any patent or fundamental non-compliance sufficient to invalidate the statutory power of sale,’ the judge ruled.

The court also rejected claims of illegal interest, noting that Korara had made broad allegations without providing evidence.

‘No expert evidence or detailed computations have been placed before the court to demonstrate that the interest charged was unlawful or outside the contractual framework,’ the court ruled.

It emphasised that disputes over loan accounts do not warrant injunctive relief. Allegations of overcharging, the court noted, are compensable through damages and cannot prevent a lender from realising security.

On the issue of irreparable harm, the court dismissed arguments that the charged land was unique. ‘Once land is offered as security for commercial borrowing, it becomes a commodity for sale,’ the ruling stated.

The court also rejected reliance on a potential investor, stating: ‘Courts cannot rewrite contracts for parties or suspend contractual rights based on hoped-for future arrangements.’

Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) detectives have identified 392,162 firms and wealthy individuals that owe it Sh759.7 billion, setting the stage for travel bans, asset freeze and deactivation of Personal Identification Numbers (PINs).

The taxman unearthed the alleged tax cheats and dodgers in the wake of an audit of the withholding tax registry, which revealed that the self-declared income was substantially lower than the amounts reported by third parties paying for the taxpayers’ services.

In some instances, the taxpayers declared nil returns despite the firms they did business with declaring payments to them.

Under withholding tax rules, firms paying for services like consultancy withhold and remit part of the taxes to the KRA in every paycheque, with the taxpayers expected to pay the full duty at a later date.

The KRA reckons it is not receiving the full taxes from suppliers despite firms declaring higher payments to the contractors.

The agency kicked off an income and expenditure verification on January 1 in an audit that pulls data from multiple sources, including eTIMS invoices, withholding tax certificates and import documents, to verify the self-declaration figures provided by a taxpayer when filing returns.

The taxman says earnings in the gig economy and fees paid to consultants, managers, trainers, lawyers and auditors top the list of hidden self-declared pay.

‘Taxpayers who had taxes withheld from them yet in 2024 they filed Nil returns are 392,162. When we check the system, we can see that these taxpayers still had transactions in 2024, yet they filed nil returns,’ said George Obell, the Commissioner for Micro and Small Taxpayers.

‘There’s a mistaken notion in the market that if you pay 5.0 percent or 3.0 percent on your income, it is final. That is not correct, it is an advance tax,’ he added.

Withholding tax rates vary from 3.0 percent to 25 percent depending on the nature of the transaction and residency status.

Taxpayers are expected to pay the full tax after deducting business expenses.

There are a few instances where withholding tax is a final tax, notably on betting winnings, interest income from investments like bonds and dividendsThe KRA has started making entries of the due taxes on the firms and individual tax records, with taxpayers expected to settle the unpaid duty ahead of filing their returns before the June deadline.

‘We expect that there are many taxpayers who will see the income prepopulated on their returns and come forward to engage us,’ said Mr Obell.

‘We will also communicate to the taxpayers who will choose, despite having been shown income on their prepopulated returns, not to come forward and engage the Authority.’

This sets the stage for a crackdown triggered by the Treasury’s desire to bolster revenues to compensate for the lack of new or higher taxes in the Finance Bills in the two previous fiscal years and repair State coffers.

The government plans to increase tax collection and cut debt after years of ramped-up borrowing to build infrastructure.

With opposition to new and higher taxes, the KRA is racing to bring more people into the tax bracket and curb cheats and dodgers in the quest to meet revenue targets.

‘We are now making a serious and unprecedented effort around having visibility of transactions in the economy,’ said Mr Obell.

‘The information that is hitting our system through eTIMS tells us who is transacting, whom they are transacting with and how much they are transacting.’

The 392,162 individuals and companies account for 5.6 percent of the nearly seven million active taxpayers.

The alleged tax cheats that fail to play ball risk receiving travel bans, collection duty directly from their suppliers and bankers, as well as prosecution in what promises to be the biggest crackdown on high net-worth persons.

Self-employed professionals like doctors and lawyers as well as wealthy individuals and real estate investors will be in the crosshairs of the taxman.

The KRA has previously flagged firms in the construction, importation of hardware and household goods, scrap metal dealers and importers of electronic items, including mobile phones for under-declaring tax dues.

Wealthy individuals, have been hiding their sources of income while engaging in luxury spending and accumulation of property, including the purchase of homes and high-end cars.

Self-employed professionals have also been fingered for either evading or under-declaring their tax obligations.

The KRA enforcement unit has also been using various databases to pursue suspected tax cheats, among them bank statements, import records, motor vehicle registration details, Kenya Power records, water bills and data from the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority (KCCA), which reveals individuals who own assets such as helicopters.

Car registration details are also being used to smoke out individuals who are driving high-end vehicles but have little to show in terms of taxes remitted.

Kenya Power meter registrations are helping the taxman to identify landlords, some of whom have been slapped with huge tax demands.

‘In our current environment, there are many pieces of data that we are now putting together and that is helping us make an income estimation of someone who is transacting in the economy,’ Mr Obell said.