Category: Business Daily

The Business Daily spoke to David Rogovic, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer at global ratings agency Moody’s on the shape of Kenya’s macros amid the shock resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran.

Moody’s upgraded Kenya’s credit rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3’ with a stable outlook in January, noting that the country’s near-term risk of default had fallen. Mr Rogovic reckons that factors giving rise to the ratings upgrade have provided strong buffers against the new shock.

The biggest macro-event this year has been the US-Israel-Iran war, to what extent do you think this has weakened Kenya’s macro? When we upgraded Kenya to ‘B3’ with a stable outlook in January, one of the key drivers was a reduction in near-term default risk because of the increase in reserves that we’d seen over time. Partly tied to that was the government having access to the Eurobond market and taking advantage of this market accessed to issue Eurobonds, not just to help finance deficit, but also push back the next big maturities.

Since then, we’ve seen a marginal deterioration in growth outlook which is not uncommon for countries that are commodity importers. We have also seen a pickup in inflation. The fiscal deficit is marginally wider than we anticipated but the overall credit profile is still with the ‘B3’ rating. The cumulative effect of the strong starting position has really helped Kenya to buffer this shock so far.

The international capital markets have remained open to Kenya with yields moving lower despite the raging war. Why have we not seen a deterioration?

Market yields are consistent with the improvement in the fundamentals that drove the upgrade to ‘B3’. There is also a sense that this shock would be temporary, at least initially when the conflict broke out.

Market access remains important for Kenya given its sizeable external financing needs and reliance on external financing needs and reliance on external sources to finance part of the fiscal deficit.

Is it opportune time for Kenya to return to the markets as we hear discussions on potentially conducting another liability management operation targeted at 2031 Eurobonds?

It’s always a trade-off between the cost of funding, the level of reserves in place and access to other sources of financing.

We have seen government act pragmatically, in terms of timing and accessing the market. When in a position where they don’t need to access the market at that time, they have used the opportunity to borrow and to refinance maturities falling in the near-term.

Kenya is finally unlocking funding from the World Bank DPO at the end of the month but discussions on a new IMF facility continue, do you see a funded facility from the fund as a necessity?

We don’t provide policy advice, rather we assess the government’s ability to repay debt. At a very basic level, an IMF programme is about the policy anchor.

We are still looking at what the medium-term fiscal trajectory is, and we have a slightly weaker fiscal trajectory than we did earlier in the year with deficits around seven percent of GDP. The IMF programme itself is secondary to the reforms and to the commitment to fiscal consolidation that we can foresee as a path forward where Kenya’s deficit narrows and where the debt stock stabilizes.

There are multiple ways to get to that point, and one is with the help of IMF. Our view on the fiscal trajectory is that it hasn’t changed too much. The deficit has widened in part because the effect of the conflict and some of the measures to support low fuel costs. Some of it is due to a slightly weaker growth outlook and higher inflation.

We continue to see fiscal slippages as spending pressures persist and revenues underperform; do you believe that Kenya has a credible fiscal consolidation process in place?

If you look at the revenue performance up through May of this year, with one month remaining in the fiscal year, there will be a shortfall relative to what’s projected. That shortfall this year is going to then create a lower base for next year.

We look at what was presented in the budget and what was passed through National Assembly, some of the measures were not approved by Parliament.

There will be spending pressures next year, being an election year. In addition, there is always unexpected spending needs, whether it’s from weather related events or to respond to commodity price or other types of shocks. We are looking to see whether the deficit will be at a level consistent with debt stabilising. The key will be what the deficit and the financing mix means for debt affordability.

June 25 was the anniversary of the Gen-Z led protests in 2024 and a reminder that the government can no longer go for aggressive tax measures. How else can fiscal consolidation be achieved?

The willingness to pursue a strategy that involves the upfront revenue-led consolidation has eased. The path forward is really a more moderate pace.

There are efforts geared at improving or enhancing tax compliance and tax collections that can help. This is going to be a much more gradual consolidation pace.

The Kenya shilling has held firm despite the evolving external shocks, where is the local currency finding this support?

I would not say whether the exchange rate is at appropriate level or not. I would look at the overall external position for Kenya. We see a current account deficit that has narrowed. We have seen inflation coming down and at one point, close to the lower end of the target range.

This is now coming back up but is being driven by external factors, not by the exchange rate, loose monetary conditions or overheating domestically. There are also strong reserves, most importantly.

Kenyan SMEs are increasingly able to sell beyond their borders. A fashion brand in Nairobi can reach customers in London through Instagram, while a software developer in Westlands can invoice clients in New York. Market access is expanding faster than ever before. The harder part is getting paid.

For many small businesses, the biggest threat to growth is no longer finding customers. It is payment friction. Businesses are losing money through foreign exchange spreads, settlement delays, intermediary banking charges and opaque transaction costs embedded in cross-border payment systems.

A company can close a deal worth thousands of dollars only for part of that value to disappear before the money reaches its account. Payments often arrive days late and, in many cases, businesses receive less than expected after multiple deductions along the payment chain.

According to the World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the most expensive regions globally for cross-border transactions, with payment costs in some corridors exceeding 10 percent. For SMEs operating on thin margins, that directly affects hiring, pricing and expansion decisions.

The contradiction is that demand already exists. The African Continental Free Trade Area and digital platforms have opened global markets to African entrepreneurs. But trade agreements alone do not move commerce. Money movement does.

Today, a Kenyan business can sometimes receive money from Europe faster than from another African country. No trading bloc can scale efficiently while payments remain slow, fragmented and expensive.

The challenge extends beyond transaction costs. Compliance processes often delay legitimate commercial activity and increase uncertainty. Additional documentation requests become routine, while settlement timelines remain unpredictable.

As a result, many SMEs have adapted around these inefficiencies. Some build payment delays directly into pricing models, while others hold excess working capital to cushion settlement uncertainty.

Kenya has already demonstrated what happens when financial infrastructure responds to local realities. M-Pesa transformed domestic commerce by reducing friction and creating speed, trust and accessibility at scale.

But once money crosses borders, businesses are pushed back into an older financial system built around correspondent banking and fragmented settlement processes. That disconnect is increasingly constraining growth.

If Kenya and Africa are serious about building globally competitive SMEs, payments infrastructure must become an economic priority.

Faster settlements, transparent foreign exchange pricing and interoperable payment systems are no longer optional. Africa cannot build a continental trading economy on payment systems that still treat cross-border commerce as an exception rather than the norm.

The share of investor wealth at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) concentrated on the banking segment has climbed to a record 42.5 percent after a price rally in the past year and the addition of Family Bank through a new listing.

Banking stocks are now collectively valued at Sh1.56 trillion, having seen their value rise by 70.4 percent from Sh913.4 billion a year ago.

They have raced past Safaricom, which is now valued at Sh1.32 trillion.

Twelve months ago, Safaricom had a market value of Sh967.6 billion, meaning it was valued more than all the banks combined.

Although the telco’s share price (and valuation) has gone up by 36 percent, banks have grown twice as fast on a mix of acquisition announcements, higher profits and dividends. Between them, Safaricom and the banks account for 78 percent of the NSE’s total market capitalisation or investor wealth of Sh3.679 trillion.

The energy segment is the third largest with a valuation of Sh283.6 billion, accounting for 7.7 percent of the NSE’s total, followed by manufacturing at Sh280.4 billion or 7.6 percent of the market. All the other segments including commercial, insurance, agriculture, construction and investment each account for between 0.2 and 2.7 percent of the market.

This rising prominence of banks at the NSE has now increased the concentration risk at the market, which has been dominated in recent years by a few large blue chips including Safaricom and large banks.

Family Bank’s listing by introduction on Tuesday has added Sh37.2 billion to the banking segment market cap. The tier two lender listed 1.66 billion shares at an entry price of Sh18 each, but the stock had climbed to Sh22.40 by close of trading on Thursday.

Other listed banks have in the meantime all recorded double-digit percentage gains on their share prices in the last year, led by Co-operative Bank of Kenya whose stock is up 104.7 percent to Sh34.80 in the period. The lender’s valuation has thus doubled to Sh204.2 billion from 99.7 billion a year ago.

Equity Group, which is the largest listed bank by market capitalisation, has seen its valuation rise by Ksh120.4 billion to Sh298.12 billion in the past 12 months after recording a 67.7 percent jump in share price to Sh79.

KCB Group’s valuation has gone up by Sh96.6 billion to Sh239.4 billion, thanks to a 67.6 percent rise in share price to Sh74.50 in the period.

Absa Group’s market cap is up Sh74.1 billion to Sh175.4 billion on a 73.2 percent jump in share price to Sh32.30.

Among the other listed banks, DTB’s valuation has risen by 87.5 percent to Sh38.9 billion, I and M Group by 79.7 percent to Sh105.3 billion, NCBA Group by 58.2 percent to Sh151.16 billion, and Stanbic Holdings by 79.8 percent to Sh114.6 billion.

Others are Standard Chartered Bank Kenya with a gain of 14.3 percent to Sh126.5 billion, BK Group at 64.6 percent to Sh48.2 billion and HFCB Group at 35.4 percent to Sh17.86 billion.

The sharp gains in the share prices has been attributed largely to the banking sector’s rising profitability and dividends.

In the year to December 2025, the sector recorded a 20 percent or Sh51.8 billion growth in pre-tax profits to Sh311.8 billion, rising on reduced cost of funding as interest rates came down in the economy. This was the first time the banking sector’s annual profits crossed the Sh300 billion mark.

With record profits in the bag, listed banks announced larger dividend payouts for the year, making their socks attractive to investors, including offshore buyers who tend to concentrate on big blue chips when trading in the Kenyan market.

The nine tier one banks distributed a combined Sh111.2 billion in the 2025 financial year, marking an increase of Sh26.7 billion from the Sh84.5 billion paid for the prior year.

The sector has also seen heightened interest from foreign multinationals that are seeking a larger slice of the East African market, which has added to the positive investor sentiment that has driven share prices higher.

Most notable is the bid by South Africa’s Nedbank for a 66 percent stake in NCBA for a total consideration of Sh110 billion.

The cash and stock deal that was announced in January 2026 has contributed significantly to NCBA’s 12-month share price gain of 60 percent. For the sellers qualifying for the cash option for their shares, Nedbank will pay a premium price of Sh105 per NCBA share.

Absa Group of South Africa announced last week that it is bidding to raise its stake in its Kenyan unit (Absa Bank Kenya) from 68.5 percent to 85 percent in a deal valued at Sh30.9 billion.

The lender plans to purchase an additional 895.99 million shares in Absa Bank Kenya at a price of Sh34.50 each, taking its ultimate holding to 4.62 billion shares.

Standard Bank of South Africa -which trades locally as Stanbic Bank- is also said to be in the market for an East African acquisition, having explored a bid for NCBA before Nedbank swooped in with its offer.

At 87, Liz Campbell has gone full circle. She has outlived three of her husbands, seen the gains made by the first civil rights movement in the US by her first husband and his friends watered down by an intolerant regime, picked back up her maiden name.

But what has remained undisturbed in all the years of her life is that her paint brush is still unsettled. She remains unbowed, beautiful and spotting the most radiant shoal of grey hair you will ever see as she sits in Ngara Gallery at Heltz House in Nairobi where her show called Where Trees Dance currently is being held at.

The show pays homage to the last three years of her life where she has been living in Kenya with her son Salim, a Capoeira instructor in Kibera.

Her colourful works are a lifelong conversation not only with landscapes but also with nature itself, the stillness and the movements of trees and until recently, the shared rhythms between the elegance of swaying trees and human motion.

Self-discovery

At 87, her show is far from what would be considered the conclusion of a master’s journey.

On the contrary, it opens up a new portal of self-discovery where an octogenarian artist dabbles with new subjects and materials garnered from her three-year stay.

‘I came here because my son and his family lived in Nairobi and it was a good time to leave America for all the right reasons. My friends tell me that I am so brave to have made the move and I tell them that I needed to see my son and I have visited Kenya long enough to know that I could live out my life here,’ she says.

Apart from Geraldine Roberts and Theresa Musoke, Liz remains to be the only other octogenarian artist still in the practice. Her brilliant use of mixed media to etch dazzling colours on paper capturing the grace and rhythm of colour and movement of humans and trees suggests that her artistic journey is nowhere near a close. I enquire on what keeps her going.

‘Ego,’ she says.

Her painting journey started when she was seven years old. It was a journey grounded in her connection with her father who was a famous illustrator but Liz wanted a different path rom her father. She wanted to be her own person, different from his famous umbrella.

‘If you remember Esquire Magazine, they had a logo of a man with big eyes, that was my father’s illustration, he was a contributor for Esquire, we would draw together but I didn’t want to be under his tutelage. If he said let us draw that tree, I would pick my own tree. His influence is in me but from me there is perhaps competition because I wanted to be my own self,’ she says.

She adds,’The worst thing parents can do to their children is to give them colouring books because there are lines and designs and children are taught not to colour beyond lines. All those are restrictions, let a child have a piece of paper and crayons and let them paint freely,’she says.

Key lessons

Her eight decades of practicing art across different jurisdictions have come with key lessons.

‘You should not criticise your work; you should let it be. It is okay to have favourites and love others less. I had an artist friend who would tear down things when she was unhappy with them but I think I want to learn from my mistakes, from what I don’t like, and improve but if I tear things up, there is no history to learn from. I keep a lot of my work because there are days when I sit down and have a look at them just to learn,’ she says.

Reflecting on her artistic path, her life is not one without regrets on the nature of the course she took and the decisions she made and given the chance, there are things she would do differently.

‘I was always procrastinating. I started becoming serious with what I express probably in my 50’s. My work and my thoughts shifted during this time and I became more serious because I started curating works that I was happy with. Art for me is food for the soul,’ she says.

She adds,’I have been married three times, all my husbands were journalists. I look back at my paintings 25 years ago when I was using my husband’s name and I would tell myself that that wasn’t my name, I had to revert to my maiden name because of having been married three times. I wake up in the morning every day and I always ask myself how did I get to be 87, how did time just shoot by? Now I am my most serious self when I am drawing and painting.’

Her show includes an installation that is composed of her sketches, one a sketch of famous jazz saxophonist John Coltrane which she drew while attending one of his concerts. Jazz for her has been a major influence whenever she is making her compositions and where she goes, a sketch book is always at hand.

‘I used to always take a sketchpad with me to concerts. In Kenya I always attend the concerts at Geco Restaurant with a sketchpad because you don’t have to see music to draw it, you just have to hear it. I prefer raw sketching as opposed to using photographs because it is how I communicate with my subjects,’ she says.

On what she would change about her life if she had to, she is quick to respond.

‘I probably shouldn’t have imposed my style on my friendships on my marriages, I should have let them just develop naturally,’ she adds, ‘I should have accepted my failures with humor,’ she says chuckling.

Being in Nairobi

For Liz, the best part about being in Nairobi is being surrounded by people of all colour especially sepia, brown and black.

‘Being honoured and respected as an elder is also a beautiful thing. In America, it does happen but mostly within the black community. I lived for about six years in Switzerland and I couldn’t wait to get back to America to be with my own people. Not only is Nairobi my home it feels like the kind of place I want to be in,’ she says.

On what she considers as the highlight of her life, she responds.

‘When I was in Oakland, California 17 years ago helping the midwife bring my granddaughter into the world. It wasn’t just the experience of seeing her in the crib but physically hearing her mother’s pain and experiencing life at its most vulnerable is a memory that is very clear and it brings me a lot of joy.’

Her life has not been without its fair share of lows but it is human intolerance to people of other races that despairs her spirit. It is this vice that necessitated her migration from America to Kenya.

‘Peoples intolerance makes me sad. My father had many friends in the civil rights movement but all that extraordinary work and suffering they did to be trampled and marched on by what America is experiencing currently makes me sad for my grandchildren because I say, what kind of world I’m I giving them where there is so much hatred and disruption?’

The award of the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) modernisation contract to China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) has entrenched the Chinese firm’s grip on Kenyan infrastructure, adding to other landmark projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and the Nairobi Expressway.

The JKIA deal pushes the value of projects under CRBC to over Sh1.2 trillion and deepens the Chinese firm’s influence in Kenya’s infrastructure development.

Transport and Roads Cabinet Secretary, Davis Chirchir, on Tuesday said that CRBC won the deal, which will entail building a new terminal and upgrading JKIA’s existing infrastructure for Sh154.2 billion to increase the airport’s passenger handling capacity from the current 7.5 million to 22 million upon completion.

CRBC’s growing influence in the big money deals embodies Kenya’s Look East policy, where China has turned out to be key in the construction of major projects in East Africa’s biggest economy.

The projects under CRBC’s helm have been funded through a mix of loans, mainly from China, and the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model, where investors fund and deliver projects, then operate them for a defined period to recoup their money.

On Tuesday, Mr Chirchir disclosed that CRBC had warded off competition from over 40 firms to win the JKIA deal, with the works expected to start in the coming months.

‘Today, I witnessed the signing of the contract for the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) Modernization Project, a major National Infrastructure Investment,’ Mr Chirchir said on Tuesday.

The JKIA deal comes barely nine months after a CRBC-led consortium bagged a contract to build the 233-kilometre Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit toll highway, for Sh170 billion.

Some of CRBC’s PPP projects include the Nairobi Expressway and the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit highway project, with the rest including the SGR, financed through loans that have mainly been tapped from Chinese lenders.

CRBC entered Kenya during the era of the late President Mwai Kibaki and has since rooted itself as the single biggest foreign company in Kenya’s multi-billion-shilling projects in the last two decades.

China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) is the parent firm of CRBC with a stake of 99 percent. The remaining one percent is owned by China First Highway Engineering Company (CFHEC).

CCCC opened its regional office for East Africa in 2014 as it sought to tap into the vast market for infrastructure projects in Kenya, Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Madagascar, Rwanda, South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda.

CRBC delivered the SGR – Kenya’s biggest infrastructural project- whose total cost was $5.08 billion (Sh658.1 billion). The project was fully funded by loans from the China Export-Import Bank.

The Chinese firm constructed the Sh86.8 billion Nairobi Expressway, whose completion in 2022 has since eased gridlocks from the JKIA to Westlands, along a span of 27.1 kilometres.

CRBC delivered the Eastern, Southern, and Northern Bypasses in Nairobi between 2012 and 2022. The costliest of these was the Sh18 billion Southern Bypass, followed by the Sh9.3 billion Eastern Bypass. The Northern Bypass, which links Ruaka (on Limuru Road) to Ruiru (on the Thika Superhighway), was built for Sh8.5 billion.

CRBC is currently finalising the Sh46 billion Talanta Stadium, which will be the biggest such facility in Kenya. The project is funded via an infrastructure bond that was issued through a special purpose vehicle dubbed Linzi Finco.

Talanta, located on Jamhuri Grounds along Ngong Road, is slated to host the final of the 2027 African Cup of Nations. Kenya will jointly host the continental football showpiece with Uganda and Tanzania.

CRBC’s grip on Kenya’s infrastructure has also spread to the agricultural sector, with the Chinese firm set to build the Sh38.8 billion Galana dam.

The dam was initially to be developed under the Public Private Partnership, but the government has since dropped this model in favor of the engineering, procurement, construction, and financing (EPCF) framework.

The PPP model has helped CRBC to lengthen its stay in the Kenyan projects, given that its subsidiaries have been operating the projects for over 20 years, enabling the firm to recoup its money.

Moja Expressway has been maintaining and collecting tolls for the Nairobi Expressway for 27 years before handing over the project to Kenya.

CRBC and NSSF will also incorporate a firm to collect user fees for the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit highway for 30 years before relinquishing ownership of the highway to Kenya.

The Chinese firm’s growing influence was further exhibited when it snatched the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit highway project from a consortium of French firms, highlighting China’s deepening reach in Kenya’s grand infrastructural projects.

Kenya had already awarded the Nairobi-Nakuru-Mau Summit highway project to a consortium of French firms led by Vinci SA Highway.

But President William Ruto’s administration cancelled the deal in 2022, citing the Sh190 billion as costly. In October last year, a consortium of CRBC and the National Social Security Fund (trustees) was awarded the contract at a lower cost of Sh170 billion.

The growing foothold of Chinese firms, led by CRBC, has rattled contractors, triggering unsuccessful attempts by Parliament to change the law in a bid to protect Kenyan firms.

In October 2023, Parliament handed the Chinese firms a big lift after it rejected proposed changes that sought to limit the participation of foreign firms in the projects.

Lawmakers rejected the Public Procurement and Asset Disposal (Amendment) Bill of 2023 that sought to raise the limit for foreign firms bidding for contracts from Sh500 million to Sh20 billion.

The Bill that was aimed at protecting local contractors was shot down because few Kenyan-owned firms can afford to deliver high-value contracts.

Former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua, had, in 2020, while serving as an MP, sponsored a Bill that sought to only allow foreign firms to bid for contracts worth Sh1 billion and above. But the Bill was rejected, leaving local contractors with the huge task of competing with Chinese firms for the top-dollar contracts.

Projects worth Sh13.66 billion have stalled across counties due to inadequate funding, disputes, and contractors abandoning sites, denying taxpayers better services and exposing them to losses running into billions of shillings.

Controller of Budget, Margaret Nyakang’o, revealed that 237 projects had stalled across 32 devolved units as at March this year, with Nairobi and Isiolo topping the list with projects worth Sh2.9 billion and Sh1.47 billion respectively.

Dr Nyakang’o’s revelations on the stalled projects will bring under scrutiny the counties’ planning process, with questions over whether they ensure enough funds for the initiatives and their ability to resolve disputes with various contractors.

‘In total, these counties reported 237 stalled projects with an estimated value of Sh13.66 billion, of which Sh5.11 billion had already been paid,’ Dr Nyakang’o says in the latest review of counties.

‘The reported causes of project stalling included inadequate budgetary allocations, unresolved contract variations, contractor abandonment, contract termination, missing contract files, and projects under investigation.’

Baringo, Machakos, and Kitui counties complete the list with stalled projects valued at Sh1.33 billion, Sh1.13 billion, and Sh923 million, respectively.

Poor roads, inadequate water and sewer systems, and poor health facilities are some of the biggest struggles facing counties. This has, in turn, forced them to undertake projects to ease these woes.

Funding shortfalls are one of the biggest nightmares for counties largely due to dismal own-source revenue mobilisation and delayed disbursements of equitable share of revenue and other funds from the National Treasury.

The financing headache has left counties grappling to run day-to-day operations, besides settling pending bills, some of which have remained due for over five years.

The 32 counties had already paid Sh8.5 billion to contractors, exposing taxpayers to losses in case the firms do not return to the site. This could force counties to tap other contractors, further burdening taxpayers.

Kilifi has the highest number of stalled projects at 68, followed by Machakos at 54, while Nairobi is third with 36. This means that Nairobi’s projects have the highest value of all the stalled ones across the 32 counties.

The Sh13 billion stalled projects look set to heighten scrutiny on the counties’ preparedness to undertake them, mainly with regard to the availability of funds and also the dispute resolution.

Failure by the contractors to resume works could see counties lose billions of shillings besides incurring more expenses in tapping new firms to complete the projects.

Dr Nyakango says that the counties should give priority to the projects that can be funded and completed in the subsequent years, mainly the low-cost projects with small outstanding balances.

The National Treasury has repeatedly directed counties and the agencies of the national government to ensure the availability of funds before committing to a project. This is meant to avoid hitches and ensure timely completion to give taxpayers value for money.

I’ve never been one to sit in the VIP section of anything. It draws too much attention to one. People gawk. So it felt oddly surreal to find myself seated in the VIP booth at Ciel Lounge in Nairobi’s Westlands last Friday night. My friend – who also happens to be my dentist – and I were there at the invitation of Antony Owich, the proprietor. My first time at Ciel, French for heaven.

There was already a full-blown party in motion. Ciel feels like the kind of place where a party is always in progress. It was bigger than it looked in photos, grander than I had imagined. A couple of brightly lit bars kept the crowd well lubricated. The place was packed, and people kept streaming in.

‘This isn’t even a busy night,’ Owich leaned over to say. ‘There are nights I can’t even walk down that path.’

He held court from the booth, facing the room. He was dressed in an all-black complete with sunglasses and sparkling earrings, like Boris Becker, the Belgian dancer and internet personality.

The crowd consists largely of people who have either always been cool their whole lives or have always wanted to be cool. And generally young, if not in age but in spirit. Lots of bottle service arriving at booths in a dramatic carnival. Hot babes. Lots. ‘It’s like a river of them,’ my friend said. If you stuck your leg in the aisle, your leg would be swept away by sheer beauty.

The music was excellent, with a deejay who knew the score. And the sound was especially terrific, loud enough for it to be a party but not for it to sound intrusive. Behind us, through the big windows, cars occasionally zipped past in the expressway.

Owich presided over this little kingdom, the night flowed around him. Calm, like a man watching his own fire burn.

Bottles of Glenlivet materialised from nowhere. Tequila flowed. Other cool people drifted by to kiss his ring and whisper in his ear.

A bouncer with an earpiece kept sentry outside our booth and, whenever Owich rose – even for a trip to the bathroom – the bouncer led the way.

Heaven, it turns out, needs someone to run it.

Across Kenya, many SMEs face the same dilemma: grow quickly and risk losing control, or grow cautiously and miss opportunities. Yet for many businesses, the real obstacle to growth is not a lack of capital but a lack of capability.

For years, the debate around SMEs has centred on access to finance. However, many entrepreneurs miss growth opportunities because they lack the systems needed to manage expansion and demonstrate readiness. Poor record-keeping, weak governance, and limited reporting often prevent businesses from securing contracts, attracting investors, or accessing credit.

The most successful SMEs invest in systems not simply because banks demand them, but because strong systems provide visibility and control. Business owners who understand their costs, customers and cash flow make better decisions and grow more sustainably. In turn, they become more attractive to lenders.

As Kenya’s regulatory environment increasingly emphasises transparency, governance and risk management, capacity-building has become essential. Supporting SMEs to strengthen these areas is no longer a goodwill initiative; it is a strategic investment in a more resilient economy.

Policymakers should treat SME capability-building as essential infrastructure, alongside roads and power.

Incentives such as matching grants, tax relief and risk-sharing mechanisms can encourage greater investment in business development programmes. The returns are significant: faster business growth, stronger tax revenues and a more resilient financial sector.

Without strong systems, growth can become overwhelming. Sales may rise, but so do inefficiencies. Financial records fall behind, profitability becomes unclear and lenders lose confidence in the business. By contrast, better governance and operational discipline help SMEs deploy capital effectively and generate reliable data for future borrowing.

The benefits extend beyond individual enterprises. More finance-ready SMEs can access working capital, adopt technology, create jobs and expand into new markets. Stronger businesses create stronger lending portfolios, generating a virtuous cycle of growth and reinvestment.

Kenya’s economy runs on the resilience of SME owners. Many are held back not by a lack of ambition, but by invisible barriers: spreadsheets instead of systems, guesswork instead of data and uncertainty instead of evidence.

The businesses that will shape Kenya’s next decade already exist. With the right systems, skills and support, they can unlock their full potential-and when they do, the entire economy benefits.

Every year, at Pwani Oil, we participate in a coastal clean-up along the Indian Ocean shoreline in Kilifi. In just about three kilometres of beach, we routinely collect more than a tonne of non-biodegradable waste.

But what is perhaps most striking is the sheer variety of what we find. Flip flops, water bottles, cigarette butts, food wrappers, toys, phone chargers, fishing lines, broken household items and even discarded electronics all wash ashore. Unfortunately, the reality is that it just won’t stop; we clean this year and next year we return to find another tonne waiting for us.

It is difficult not to feel frustrated during these exercises. Every item we pick up tells the story of someone who purchased a product, used it briefly and then abandoned it without thought for where it would eventually end up. This makes the ocean effectively a dumping ground for habits we refuse to confront on land.

This personal frustration soon gives way to a much larger reality. What we often see on the beach is only a fragment of a far deeper ecological and economic crisis unfolding in plain sight. Scientists estimate that around eight million metric tons of plastic waste enter the oceans every year, while studies suggest that nearly 90 percent of seabirds have ingested plastic in some form.

Marine life across the food chain is paying the price for human convenience as sea turtles mistake floating plastic bags for jellyfish and fish consume microplastics that ultimately make their way back into human diets.

Coral reefs, already under pressure from warming oceans, are increasingly also suffocated by pollution. For Kenya, a country whose coastline supports tourism and fishing livelihoods, this challenge carries serious national implications.

The problem, however, is not unique to the coast. One only needs to look at the state of urban drainage systems after heavy rains in Nairobi to see how deeply embedded poor waste disposal habits have become.

Plastic bottles clog waterways, food packaging blocks drainage channels and illegal dumping sites emerge almost overnight. Flooding in many urban areas, initially viewed purely as a consequence of weather patterns, is now increasingly linked to human negligence.

Seen in this urban context, the same patterns that choke coastal ecosystems are clearly echoed inland, pointing to a wider behavioural and systemic issue. It is within this broader reality that Kenya has, to its credit, previously shown leadership in environmental policy.

The country’s 2017 ban on single-use plastic carrier bags remains one of the boldest such decisions globally.

Initially, many predicted public resistance, but, instead, citizens adapted remarkably quickly. Today, it is difficult to imagine our supermarkets and retail spaces reverting to the era of thin plastic carrier bags.

That success demonstrates that behavioural change is possible when policy and public education align around a common goal.

At the same time, the next phase of the waste challenge is far more complex because today’s pollution crisis involves a wide ecosystem of consumption habits and waste management gaps, which no single policy or clean-up exercise will solve. I say this from my perspective as a leader in a company that relies significantly on plastic packaging.

Businesses cannot continue to manufacture products while leaving the burden of waste management solely to consumers or government.

The scale of the problem demands honesty about the role citizens play. Building a cleaner country will remain impossible if public spaces continue to be treated as dumping grounds. The habit of throwing waste from car windows, leaving litter after public gatherings or dumping refuse into rivers reflects a culture problem. We all must now agree that environmental stewardship cannot be outsourced.

Importantly, we must all strive at reducing the amount of waste that requires collecting. That means investing more seriously in waste segregation at household level, improving recycling infrastructure, enforcing anti-dumping regulations consistently and encouraging innovation around circular economies.

Thankfully, across Kenya, encouraging examples are now emerging, including community-based recycling initiatives in places like Mombasa, Nakuru and Kisumu that are demonstrating how waste can become an economic resource. Informal waste collectors, often overlooked in public discourse, are helping recover thousands of tonnes of recyclable material every year while creating livelihoods for themselves and others.

Elsewhere, Start-ups converting plastic waste into construction materials and paving blocks are proving that environmental sustainability and economic opportunity can coexist. Counties are also strengthening their waste collection systems, but citizens are equally called upon to support those systems by using them responsibly.

Meanwhile, schools, community organisations and even faith institutions have a role to play in shaping attitudes from an early age. Children who grow up understanding the connection between waste and environmental protection are far more likely to become responsible citizens and consumers.

Ultimately, the conversation around waste management is about the kind of society Kenya hopes to become in the decades ahead. The progress already being made across communities shows that solutions are within reach but sustaining that progress will require a shared understanding that waste is not someone else’s problem.

The choices made in homes, schools, markets, roads, offices and beaches every day will determine whether Kenya becomes cleaner and all-round resilient.

Kenya’s strengthened macroeconomic buffers, including a narrower current account deficit and sizable official reserves, have helped the country absorb shocks from the US-Israel war on Iran, sustaining its assessment of being at a lower risk of debt default.

Sovereign credit ratings agency Moody’s notes that its recent upgrade of Kenya as a long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating from ‘Caa1’ to ‘B3’ in January has largely held firm through the Middle East crisis which has resulted in a sharp spike in fuel prices.

Kenya’s usable foreign currency reserves have come under pressure but have largely held above five months of import cover, standing at Sh1.7 trillion ($13.14 billion) as per the latest CBK data while the current account deficit has expanded moderately to 2.6 percent of GDP through 12 months to April 2026 from 1.7 percent at the same time last year.

The Kenya shilling has held steady, trading within a narrow-bound range of 129 to 130 units against the US dollar while the country’s Eurobond yields remain in single digits, mirroring resilience against external shocks.

‘Kenya entered the shock from a position of strength with the current account having narrowed significantly. It has also helped to have a stable exchange rate leading to the shock as this has not been a time when the currency is weakening or when the central bank is having difficulties in terms of keeping inflation under control,’ said David Rogovic, Vice President and Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s Ratings.

‘We have, however, seen a modest deterioration in the growth outlook which is not uncommon for countries that are commodity importers and have also seen inflation pick up again.’

Growth for Kenya is expected to moderate in 2026 on the backdrop of the Middle East crisis with the CBK revising its growth projection to 4.9 percent from 5.3 percent while the National Treasury sees growth at a flat five percent.

The slower-than-expected growth outlook comes amid a weaker revenue projection which has deteriorated further with the Iran war.

The combination of weaker revenue and higher spending requirements is expected to see the National Treasury running a wider fiscal deficit at 6.4 percent of GDP in the current 2025/26 fiscal year from the prior year’s 6.1 percent as the consolidation path deviates from previous estimates of sub-five percent.

The wider deficit will see Kenya increasingly turn to borrowing to plug the hole where it holds a bias for the domestic credit markets.

Net domestic financing is expected to cover Sh995.7 billion of the Sh1.11 trillion borrowing requirement for the next fiscal year starting July 1 while the projection for net foreign financing has been set at Sh116.2 billion.

Despite its preference for domestic credit markets, Kenya has a variety of funding options available including tapping the international capital markets, Samurai bonds and funding from multilateral institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Kenya’s long awaited Sh97 billion ($750 million) loan from the World Bank’s Development Policy Operations (DPO) is for instance set to be disbursed this Friday.

The country at the same time remains in discussions with the IMF over a new funded programme.

Moody’s has underlined the importance of Kenya maintaining access to international capital markets even as it finds multiple funding sources.

The National Treasury has mainly leveraged the external capital markets to refinance near-term maturities and conducted two Eurobond buybacks in 2025, helping it earn a ratings bump from Moody’s in January.

‘This is a country that would likely need to maintain market access. The IMF has in the past been an important source, but Kenya is close to reaching its limit in terms of its quota,’ added Mr Rogovic.

‘Whether Kenya accesses the markets now, I would say it’s a tradeoff. It’s a balance between the cost of funding in the market, the level of reserves in place and access to other sources of financing.’