Category: Business Day

Nigeria’s central bank is turning to a market it locked individuals out of seven years ago as a fresh line of defense against an anticipated wave of election-related spending.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has reversed a 2019 restriction that confined its Open Market Operations bills, which are among the highest-yielding, lowest-risk instruments in the naira market, to banks and select institutional players.

Under the revised framework, individuals, corporates and non-bank financial institutions can now participate in both primary and secondary OMO markets, bidding and settling transactions through Deposit Money Banks.

The reversal is one part of a broader liquidity overhaul. The CBN has also eased restrictions on banks’ access to its Standing Lending Facility, or Discount Window, removing curbs tied to participation in foreign exchange transactions and primary auctions of government securities.

One restriction remains in place: institutions that tap the Discount Window still cannot bid in OMO auctions on the same day.

Ayodele Akinwunmi, chief economist at United Capital Plc, said the latest measures represent an aggressive liquidity management strategy by the CBN ahead of election-related fiscal spending.

He said the CBN’s aggressive liquidity mop-up strategy is timely, particularly ahead of the expected increase in election-related campaign spending and the substantial expansion in broad money supply (M3) observed in the market.

According to him, the approach is preferable to an outright increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as it allows the CBN to address excess liquidity more directly while avoiding an unnecessarily broad tightening of monetary conditions.

Akinwunmi said while the liquidity mop-up may initially exert some upward pressure on interbank money-market rates, subsequent moderation in rates is expected to be gradual rather than drastic.

‘This should enable the CBN to maintain effective control of system liquidity and anchor inflation expectations without imposing excessive pressure on economic activity and credit conditions,’ he said.

He added that the latest OMO policy would create an additional outlet for investors in the financial market.

The data illustrates just how much the banking system’s liquidity position has already shifted. Banks’ use of the Standing Lending Facility collapsed to N3.52 trillion in July 2026, down from N65.53 trillion in July 2025 and N75.18 trillion in July 2024, and even below the N11.16 trillion recorded in July 2023. It remains only slightly under the N5.77 trillion posted in July 2022.

The mirror image of that decline shows up in the Standing Deposit Facility, where banks park excess liquidity with the CBN rather than borrow from it. SDF utilization surged to N595.37 trillion in July 2026 from N2.32 trillion in July 2022 – a roughly 257-fold increase – and jumped 646 percent from N79.85 trillion in July 2025 alone. On a single-day basis, deposits rose 49.39 percent to a three-month high of N6.14 trillion on Thursday, up from N4.11 trillion the day before, a level last matched on May 29, 2026, when SDF hit N6.10 trillion.

The reversal in positioning is stark. In July 2024, banks drew N75.18 trillion through the SLF against just N10.35 trillion parked in the SDF. Two years later, the relationship has flipped entirely: N3.52 trillion borrowed versus N595.37 trillion deposited.

The CBN cautioned that the SDF figure reflects utilization over the period rather than a single point-in-time balance, but said the scale of the increase underscores how much more banks are now using the facility to place liquidity with the apex bank rather than draw from it.

A Return to Orthodoxy

Okey Umeano, acting director of the Financial Markets Department, said the changes followed a review of ‘existing market practices and developments in the foreign exchange, money, and fixed-income markets,’ alongside a broader assessment of the frameworks governing the Standing Lending Facility, Tenored Repo Operations and OMO participation.

Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of Financial Institutions Ratings at Agusto and Co., framed the moves as part of a longer arc back toward conventional central banking. ‘This is part of the return to orthodox monetary system,’ he said. ‘Recall that these restrictions were not there before the last FX crisis.’

Alongside the OMO and Discount Window changes, the CBN lifted its suspension of Tenored Repo Operations, restoring the bank’s ability to conduct repos across tenors of four to 90 days, a move it said would support liquidity management, improve money-market functioning and strengthen monetary policy transmission. For banks, tenored repos add a channel for managing liquidity beyond the overnight market and could ease reliance on shorter-term funding.

What Wider Access Could Cost

Analysts at Quest Merchant Bank Limited said the reforms should deepen activity across the money and fixed-income markets and signal growing confidence in FX stability, reserve adequacy and broader market conditions.

The analysts however said broader investor participation could accelerate yield compression over time, potentially trimming treasury income for banks and moderating the carry appeal of naira assets.

The reforms, therefore, mark a broader shift in the CBN’s liquidity-management framework, coming at a time when banks are making far greater use of the deposit facility and considerably less use of the lending window.

About a year ago, I wrote from Brasília about the privilege of accompanying the Board of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) to meet His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR. I argued then that much of the commentary on Nigeria’s economy suffered from omitted variable bias: that the story being told left out variables that changed its meaning. Last Thursday, at the Aso Villa, as the Board and Management of the Nigerian Exchange Group made another strategic visit to the President, I sat in the room again and watched a different omission being corrected, not in the critics’ model this time, but in the nation’s own.

For decades, Nigeria’s national economic conversation has been conducted in a narrow vocabulary: oil production, foreign reserves, inflation and the exchange rate. Budgets rose and fell with the price of crude; policy debate orbited the naira. The capital market, the mechanism through which successful economies finance enterprises, build infrastructure and distribute ownership and prosperity, was, at best, a footnote. In model terms, it was the omitted variable: present in the economy, absent from the specification.

What I witnessed on Thursday was that variable being formally admitted. The capital market is no longer a spectator subject in Nigeria. It was discussed at the highest table in the land in the same breath as fiscal and monetary policy: as an instrument of national strategy.

The evidence that earned it that seat is not rhetorical. ‘The picture today is that when you took office in 2023, the total value of stocks listed in Nigeria was just shy of ?30 trillion. today, Mr President, that figure is ?160 trillion. By the end of this year, with the listings that we are seeing in our market, we expect that figure to rise to ?230 trillion,’ Group MD/CEO, NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, told the President.

The All-Share Index tells the same story, rising from 52,000 points to 244,000. A skeptic will say asset prices are not the economy. I agree: a single indicator proves nothing. But markets are forward-looking aggregators of information; they price not simply what is, but what millions of independent decisions expect to come.

When domestic institutions, pension funds, retail investors and foreign portfolio managers converge on the same directional bet over three years, it deserves attention. That conviction has been expressed through market infrastructure built collectively by the Exchange, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) and market operators, strengthened by June’s transition to T+1 settlement and validated through a Central Bank-led banking recapitalisation funded roughly 75 per cent from domestic resources.

This is no longer a sentiment. It revealed preference at scale. That is what an admitted variable looks like: measured, priced, trusted. The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, made the point from the regulator’s side of the table, recalling the doubt that greeted the recapitalisation announcement: ‘There was a lot of scepticism. People didn’t think it was possible. And now it was done very successfully; close to 75 per cent of the total was domestic resources. In the past, it was the other way around.’ He was generous enough to add that NGX was up to the task and that the SEC played a major role in a seamless exercise, reinforcing the broader point: admitted variables are the work of an ecosystem, not an institution.

This is where the significance of NGX Group’s role becomes clearer. Economic reform creates the conditions for confidence, but confidence alone does not build factories, recapitalise banks or finance infrastructure. Someone has to convert that confidence into investable opportunities and mobilise savings into productive capital. That is the work of the capital market. Over the past three years, NGX and its ecosystem have increasingly occupied that space, helping translate the credibility created by reform into actual capital formation. NGX and Popoola’s role has been to keep that bridge between policy and markets visible, bringing concrete market mechanisms and opportunities to the highest level of economic decision-making.

What struck me most in the room, however, was not the data. It was how naturally the conversation flowed through it. ‘I can see the excitement in the room. All I can do is to celebrate you all today,’ the president began, before offering the line that distilled the shift: ‘Nigeria can build a nation of prosperity by itself. If the stock market is doing well, then we are doing well.’

He then turned from celebration to consequence: what does this confidence make possible for the manufacturer seeking expansion capital, for the entrepreneur with a bold idea and for the millions of workers whose pensions participate in this growth? That is the right question.

Market performance is an intermediate variable; the dependent variable is the welfare of ordinary Nigerians. The clearest proof that the variable is now in the model came in a single announcement. Popoola had tabled four priorities for NGX Group: the privatisation and listing of commercially viable government assets; the domestic or dual listing of leading Nigerian companies; clarity on the capital gains tax treatment of listed securities; and greater use of capital-market instruments to finance infrastructure. Before the meeting ended, the president went on to disclose that NNPC Limited would be reformed and listed on the capital market.

That is consequential. When a state chooses to finance, discipline and distribute ownership of one of its most important commercial assets through the market, the market has ceased to be a footnote. A listed NNPC means audited accounts, market discipline and, most importantly, the opportunity for Nigerians themselves, directly and through their pension funds, to own a share of the national patrimony. It converts aspiration into presidential commitment.

The conversation ran wider than the delegation. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, described the capital market as ‘one of the fastest ways to create wealth for millions of Nigerians’, challenging NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission to target a trillion-dollar market. His sharpest observation concerned the next generation: ‘Many of our young people invest their money in virtual assets and gambling, whereas you can make more money from the capital market.’

NGX Group Chairman Alhaji (Dr) Umaru Kwairanga matched the ambition with a timeline, telling the President that a one-trillion-dollar economy is achievable before 2030. He also recalled a recent panel where he attributed the market’s turnaround to leadership and consistency of reform: two inputs no market can generate for itself.

Let me be careful about what I am claiming, because precision matters. Nigeria’s cost-of-living challenge is real, and no index level pays a family’s bills. Every reform leaves residuals, and honest analysis names them. But the fairest answer to the transmission question, how any of this reaches the man on the street, came from the CBN Governor himself.

‘Without stability, you don’t get the investments you are talking about. And without the investments, you don’t get growth.’ Stability, investment, growth, and welfare: that is the transmission mechanism. The boom-and-bust cycles of the past, marked by apparent stability followed by devaluation and then another cycle, were symptoms of a system whose plumbing, in Cardoso’s phrase, had never been done. The plumbing is the point.

Markets cannot create macroeconomic stability by themselves. Nor can monetary and fiscal policy, however well designed, deliver broad-based prosperity without mechanisms through which capital reaches productive enterprise. The capital market is part of that machinery: the bridge between savings and investment, between institutional capital and enterprise, between national assets and national ownership. That is why Thursday mattered beyond the day’s announcements.

The deepest significance of the meeting may be permanence. The truest compliment to any reform is that it is built to outlast its authors, a standard the President has set for himself in speaking of foundations for long-term, sustainable growth. The capital market’s new place in the national conversation is exactly that kind of achievement: institutional, not episodic.

Markets reward credible policy, disciplined institutions and consistent regulation. A market admitted to the heart of national strategy can serve every government that comes after. That is precisely what makes its admission an act of nation-building rather than a moment in a news cycle.

But being admitted is only the beginning. The task ahead is to make it irreversible: listing the assets, simplifying access, protecting investors, drawing young Nigerians from speculation toward ownership, deepening domestic participation, attracting long-term international capital, and building the bridge between policy and markets that we, as capital-market professionals, exist to build.

Nigeria’s future is still being written from within the room. The difference, one year on, is that the capital market is no longer waiting outside it.

Laja Adeoye, the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) Lagos State governorship candidate, said the party’s successful national convention in Bauchi State has strengthened its resolve to build a formidable political structure ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Adeoye, in a statement on Friday, said the convention, held in Bauchi on Thursday, marked a significant stage in the APM’s development and demonstrated its growing capacity to compete in Nigeria’s political landscape.

The gubernatorial candidate said the party had, within a short period, positioned itself as a credible opposition platform capable of playing a major role in the 2027 elections.

‘It is no longer in doubt that APM has emerged, within a remarkably short period, as a frontline and credible opposition party to reckon with in Nigeria,’ Adeoye said.

He attributed the growing acceptance of the party largely to the quality and credibility of its presidential candidate, Seyi Makinde, Oyo State governor.

According to Adeoye, Nigerians are looking forward to the 2027 general elections, expressing confidence that Makinde would receive widespread support from voters across the country.

He also commended Makinde’s leadership, saying his emergence as the party’s presidential candidate had provided a platform for members and political stakeholders to contribute to the development of a stronger alternative to the ruling party.

Adeoye’s comments came after the APM’s national convention in Bauchi, where new members of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) were elected.

He congratulated the newly elected NWC members and the party’s national leader, Bala Mohammed, Bauchi State governor, describing the event as an ‘epoch-making National Convention.’

The candidate also thanked delegates and party leaders from Lagos State and other parts of the country who participated in the convention, saying their contributions were central to its success.

He commended the people of Bauchi for their hospitality and warm reception during the convention and appreciated the Emir of Bauchi for receiving members of the party during a courtesy visit.

Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc, has met the new recapitalisation requirement for non-life insurance companies prescribed by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), under the Nigeria Insurance Industry Reform Act, (NIIRA) 2025. This feat has reinforced the Company’s financial strength and commitment to long-term growth.

The achievement marks another significant milestone in the Company’s journey of building a stronger, more resilient and future-ready insurance business, while positioning it to take advantage of emerging opportunities within Nigeria’s evolving insurance market.

Commenting on the development, Lucas Durojaiye, managing director/CEO of Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc, said the Company’s achievement reflects the confidence of its shareholders and stakeholders in its strategic direction and growth prospects.

In his words, ‘Meeting the new recapitalisation requirement is a significant milestone for Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc. It demonstrates the strength of our business, the confidence of our shareholders and our commitment to maintaining the highest standards of financial capacity and corporate governance.’

‘We remain focused on delivering sustainable value to our policyholders, shareholders, brokers, agents and other stakeholders, while leveraging technology, innovation and customer-centric solutions to deepen insurance penetration across Nigeria.’

The Company noted that the recapitalisation milestone provides a stronger platform to support its strategic ambitions, enhance underwriting capacity and participate more effectively in opportunities across key sectors of the Nigerian economy.

According to the MD/CEO, the Company’s focus will remain on sustainable growth, prudent risk management, operational efficiency, digital transformation and superior customer experience, while maintaining a strong commitment to regulatory compliance. The achievement also underscores Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc’s confidence in the future of the Nigerian insurance industry and its determination to contribute meaningfully to the development of a stronger, more inclusive and resilient insurance sector.

Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc has over the years demonstrated an uncompromising stance on professionalism providing a broad range of general insurance solutions to individuals, businesses and institutions. The Company is committed to delivering innovative, reliable and customer-focused insurance solutions while creating sustainable value for all its stakeholders.

The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Federal Capital Territory Command, has trained 260 private guard operatives from 40 private security companies on modern security management, threat detection and emergency response.

The five-day training, which ran from August 10 to 14, 2026, was organised to strengthen the capacity of private security personnel to respond effectively to emerging security threats and support government security agencies in protecting lives, property and critical infrastructure across the Federal Capital Territory.

The training ended on Friday with a passing-out ceremony held at the newly commissioned FCT Command Training Ground in Abuja.

Olusola Odumosu, FCT Commandant of the NSCDC, said the changing nature of crime and insecurity had made continuous training and retraining imperative for personnel operating in the private security sector.

Odumosu said private security operations had evolved beyond the traditional responsibilities of guarding gates and checking visitors, stressing that modern security operatives must possess the capacity to identify threats, detect suspicious behaviour, manage access, communicate effectively, respond to emergencies, protect critical facilities and preserve security-related information.

He said, ‘Security personnel must never stop learning,’ adding that the refresher programme was designed to update the participants’ knowledge, correct outdated practices and expose them to contemporary approaches to security management.

According to him, private guard company training should not end with a passing-out ceremony, as the NSCDC FCT Command would sustain a continuous cycle of training and retraining to keep operatives abreast of emerging security threats and appropriate response mechanisms.

The NSCDC commandant described private security operatives as important stakeholders in Nigeria’s national security architecture, noting that government security agencies could not single-handedly provide security across the country.

He explained that private guards were often positioned in residential estates, businesses, hotels, financial institutions, construction sites, telecommunications facilities, corporate offices and other locations where they could detect suspicious activities before conventional security agencies became involved.

‘Your ability to recognise, document and appropriately report suspicious activities can help prevent crime before it occurs,’ Odumosu said.

He therefore urged the operatives to take their responsibilities seriously, warning that their conduct, professional judgment and ability to respond appropriately to security situations could either strengthen or undermine the safety of the organisations and communities they were employed to protect.

He advised the graduates to develop what he described as a mindset of security consciousness, vigilance and responsibility by understanding their operating environments, identifying vulnerabilities, observing unusual changes and reporting suspicious activities promptly to the appropriate authorities.

Odumosu said the NSCDC, which has statutory responsibility for the regulation, monitoring, supervision and licensing of private guard companies, viewed the private security industry as a strategic partner in securing the FCT and the country.

He said the command would continue to engage private security companies through training, professional guidance, supervision, collaboration and enforcement where necessary.

The commandant, however, urged private security companies to ensure that their personnel were properly trained, adequately equipped and treated with dignity.

‘Professional security requires professional personnel, and professional personnel require appropriate training, remuneration and welfare,’ he said.

He also called on private security companies to strengthen their internal reporting mechanisms and establish effective channels for communicating with relevant security agencies whenever security situations required external intervention.

The NSCDC boss stressed the importance of the role played by private security operatives in protecting critical national assets and infrastructure in the FCT.

He noted that Abuja, beyond being Nigeria’s administrative capital, hosts government institutions, diplomatic missions, financial institutions, communication facilities, transportation infrastructure, residential communities, businesses and other strategic installations.

According to him, the protection of such facilities requires a coordinated security architecture involving government agencies, private security companies, businesses and communities.

He warned that a seemingly minor security breach could escalate into a major incident if not identified and addressed promptly.

Odumosu therefore urged private guards not to regard their duties as routine employment, but to understand the security implications of the facilities and communities they were protecting.

‘Do not merely perform security duties as a routine job. Understand the environment. Know the vulnerabilities. Observe changes. Ask appropriate questions. Report suspicious activities to us immediately and leave the rest to us,’ he said.

He further cautioned the operatives against compromising their professional responsibilities for personal gain and urged them to maintain proper security records.

Odumosu also called on private guard companies to invest more deliberately in the training, welfare and professional development of their personnel.

He argued that companies could not expect high standards of professionalism from security guards while neglecting their welfare, equipment, working conditions and continuous training.

‘Professional security requires professional treatment of security personnel,’ he said.

He consequently urged operators in the sector to deepen their partnership with the NSCDC through information sharing, professional engagement, accountability and mutual respect.

Lucky Ojealaro, Chairman of the Association of Licensed Private Security Practitioners of Nigeria (ALPSPN), FCT Zone, commended the NSCDC FCT Command for organising the capacity-building programme.

Ojealaro described the training as another important step towards strengthening professionalism and standardisation in the private security sector in the FCT.

He commended Odumosu and the command for what he described as visionary leadership and commitment to professionalism, discipline and collaboration with the private security industry.

According to him, the association welcomed the partnership between the NSCDC and private security practitioners, noting that continued training would contribute to improved security operations across the territory.

He urged the graduating operatives to immediately apply the knowledge acquired during the programme to their official responsibilities.

Ojealaro described the NSCDC as a regulator and ‘big brother’ to the private security industry, while pledging continued collaboration with the Corps to improve standards and promote global best practices among private guard companies.

The NSCDC commandant reminded the 260 graduating operatives that the conclusion of the five-day programme should mark the beginning of a renewed professional commitment rather than the end of their learning.

He urged them to share the knowledge acquired with colleagues, improve their daily security practices, remain observant and disciplined, respond professionally to emergencies and embrace continuous learning.

He said every threat identified, incident prevented and life protected by a private security operative contributes to national peace, stability and economic development.

Odumosu also expressed appreciation to the Commandant-General of the NSCDC, Prof Ahmed Abubakar Audi, for his emphasis on training, professional development and capacity building within the Corps and the wider security sector.

He equally commended ALPSPN, the participating private security companies, instructors, facilitators and officers of the NSCDC for their contribution to the success of the programme.

He said the command remained open to constructive engagement and capacity-building initiatives capable of raising security standards across the FCT.

The commandant stressed that security was a collective responsibility requiring the combined efforts of the police, military, NSCDC, intelligence agencies, government institutions, private security companies, businesses, communities and individual citizens.

He urged all stakeholders to work towards creating a security environment in which residents could live without fear, businesses could operate with confidence and citizens could participate peacefully in the country’s democratic processes.

The United States Consulate General in Lagos has disclosed the arrival of its new Consul General, Brandon Hudspeth. Consul General Hudspeth begins a three-year tenure as the senior U.S. government representative across the 17 states of southern Nigeria.

Hudspeth, an accomplished diplomat and a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, succeeds Consul General Rick Swart who retired from the U.S. Foreign Service in July. Mr. Hudspeth is serving in Lagos for the second time having previously been the Political-Economic Section Chief from 2020 to 2022.

‘I am honored to return to Lagos as the U.S. Consul General,’ Consul General Hudspeth said. ‘I know firsthand the strength of the U.S.-Nigeria partnership and the extraordinary energy, ingenuity, and entrepreneurial spirit that Nigerians and Americans share.’ Consul General Hudspeth noted that he looks forward to reconnecting with old friends, building new partnerships, and working alongside Nigerians to expand trade and investment, drive innovation, strengthen collaboration in the technology and creative industries, and create new opportunities that advance shared prosperity for both countries.

Consul General Hudspeth brings two decades of diplomatic experience spanning Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Washington. Most recently, he served as the Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Windhoek, Namibia. His earlier assignments include serving as Director of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement at the U.S. Embassy in the Philippines, where he led U.S. civilian assistance programs supporting law enforcement, rule of law, counter-narcotics efforts, and maritime security cooperation. He also served as Political-Economic Section Chief in Bamako, Mali; Nonimmigrant Visa Chief in Havana, Cuba; and Political-Military Officer in Kabul, Afghanistan. In Washington, D.C., he served in the Department of State’s Operations Center, on the Secretariat Staff supporting the Secretary of State, and as a Desk Officer in the Bureau of African Affairs.

A native of Texas, Consul General Hudspeth is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Morehouse College, where he received a Bachelor’s in Political Science and Economics. He earned a Master of Public Policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School. He was also a Distinguished Graduate of the National Defense University, where he obtained a Master of Science in National Resource Strategy.

Kenya holds rate at 8.75% as Iran war raises inflation risks

Kenya’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 8.75 percent for a third consecutive meeting as it weighs rising fuel costs, a stable shilling and stronger economic growth against the risk of renewed inflation from the Iran war.

The Central Bank of Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee said the current policy stance remains appropriate to keep inflation expectations anchored and support exchange-rate stability. Annual inflation rose slightly to 6.5 percent in July from 6.4 percent in June, remaining within the bank’s target range of 2.5 to 7.5 percent.

Why it matters: Kenya’s decision shows the challenge facing African central banks as higher oil prices threaten to push up transport, food and production costs. Holding rates allows the bank to support economic activity while it assesses whether the energy shock will translate into broader inflation.

Namibia keeps rate at 6.75% despite rising inflation risks

The Bank of Namibia left its repo rate unchanged at 6.75 percent, citing subdued economic growth, a relatively benign inflation outlook and adequate foreign-exchange reserves.

The rate has remained at this level since June, when the central bank raised it by 25 basis points. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.4 percent in June from 4.1 percent in May, its highest level in almost two years.

Nedbank analysts expect inflation to rise above 5 percent in August after the government reinstated some fuel taxes that had been suspended to cushion consumers from the impact of the Iran war. The central bank projects inflation at 4 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027.

Why it matters: Namibia is balancing weak growth against the risk that higher fuel costs could push inflation above its current forecasts. A sustained increase in energy prices could limit the central bank’s ability to cut rates and provide more support to the economy.

Uganda holds rate at 9.75% as oil pressure remains contained

The Bank of Uganda kept its key lending rate at 9.75 percent for an eighth consecutive policy meeting, saying higher oil prices have not so far generated broader price pressures across the economy.

Headline inflation rose to 4 percent in July from 3.7 percent in June, while the central bank continues to target core inflation of 5 percent over the medium term.

Governor Michael Atingi-Ego said current inflation data does not show wider price pressures spreading through the economy because of higher oil prices. The economy is expected to grow by 7 to 7.5 percent in the fiscal year that began in July, up from an estimated 6.4 percent in the previous fiscal year.

Why it matters: Uganda’s decision reflects stronger confidence that the economy can absorb the oil-price shock without a broad inflation surge. If price pressures remain contained and growth strengthens, the central bank could have more room to maintain its current stance rather than tightening policy.

BusinessDay’s economists project that Nigeria’s headline inflation will ease to 15.51 percent in July, dropping from the 15.91 percent recorded in June, signifying a moderation of price pressure.

If validated by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this 0.4 percentage point difference will extend a two month disinflationary trend. The pace of disinflation, however, remains dependent on exchange-rate stability, food supply conditions and global commodity prices.

This forecast was generated using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model. The model estimates monthly inflation by combining lagged inflation movements with changes in the official exchange rate, business activity measured by the Stanbic IBTC/S and P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the inflation rebasing dummy and an autoregressive component that captures inflation persistence. Business activity is included because stronger demand and improving business conditions often influence firms’ pricing decisions, making the PMI a useful leading indicator of inflation.

The model uses all available information up to June 2026 to estimate July inflation ahead of the NBS’s official release.

The projected moderation reflects improving macroeconomic stability and the fading effects of earlier shocks. Exchange-rate movements have become less disruptive than during the sharp depreciation that followed the foreign exchange reforms of 2023, reducing one of the biggest sources of inflationary pressure.

That assessment is broadly consistent with recent market developments. Ayo Teriba, chief executive officer of Economic Associates, said improved foreign exchange conditions and stronger market liquidity have created a more favourable environment for inflation moderation.

Analysts caution, however, that slower inflation should not be mistaken for low inflation. Nigeria continues to face structural challenges, including weak agricultural productivity, high logistics costs, energy constraints and persistent supply-chain inefficiencies that continue to keep prices elevated.

Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said external developments, particularly movements in global energy prices, remain an important risk to Nigeria’s inflation outlook.

‘The recent geopolitical developments put some pressure on energy prices, which filtered into transportation and production costs,’ he said, adding that inflation could still experience marginal movements depending on external conditions.

The July projection also comes at a pivotal moment for monetary policy. The Central Bank of Nigeria has maintained one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in the country’s recent history, keeping the Monetary Policy Rate at elevated levels in an effort to stabilise inflation and support the naira.

A sustained decline in inflation would strengthen the case for a gradual shift towards monetary easing. Policymakers, however, are likely to remain cautious because inflation continues to be driven largely by supply-side constraints rather than excessive domestic demand.

For investors, moderating inflation improves the outlook for real returns on fixed-income assets. With domestic interest rates remaining well above inflation, Nigerian government securities continue to offer relatively attractive real yields compared with many emerging-market peers.

For households and businesses, however, the improvement is likely to be less noticeable. Inflation measures the rate at which prices increase, not the level of prices themselves. Food, transport, housing and energy costs therefore continue to rise even as inflation slows.

The July prediction highlights an important transition in Nigeria’s inflation story. The economy appears to be moving beyond the most acute effects of exchange-rate adjustments and fuel subsidy reforms, but the next phase of disinflation will increasingly depend on structural improvements rather than cyclical factors.

Lower inflation over the long term will require higher agricultural productivity, improved electricity supply, stronger transport and logistics networks, and policies that reduce production costs across the economy.

The Central Bank’s tight monetary stance has likely contributed to moderating inflation by supporting exchange-rate stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Bringing inflation back to single digits, however, will depend less on interest rates than on the economy’s ability to produce, transport and distribute goods more efficiently. Those are reforms monetary policy alone cannot deliver.

The naira on Thursday gained further against the dollar in the official foreign exchange (FX) market after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) eased restrictions on foreign exchange and government securities transactions by banks and opened access to its discount window.

Data published by the CBN showed that the naira appreciated slightly by N2.93, as the dollar was quoted at N1,357.65 on Thursday, compared with N1,360.58 quoted on Wednesday at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).

In the parallel market, also known as the black market, the local currency steadied at N1,424 per dollar on Thursday. The gap between the official and parallel market rates widened to 4.94 percent from 4.71 percent the previous day.

The number of deals at the interbank segment of the FX market dropped by 48.42 percent from 190 on Wednesday to 98 deals on Thursday. Total turnover also declined by 53.13 percent to $79.09 million on Thursday from $168.76 million recorded on Wednesday.

Although the NFEM figures for deals and turnover were not available as of the time of reporting, activity increased the previous day, as total turnover at the NFEM rose to $607.47 million on Wednesday, representing a 228.38 percent increase from the $184.99 million recorded on Tuesday. The number of deals at the NFEM also increased by 119.89 percent from 186 on Tuesday to 409 deals on Wednesday.

Nigeria’s external reserves, which give the CBN the firepower to defend the naira and meet external obligations, have maintained a steady growth trajectory, rising to a 17-year high of $52.19 billion as of August 12, 2026.

This represented a 28.39 percent increase compared with the $40.65 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to data published on the CBN website.

The CBN has removed restrictions that previously prevented banks from accessing its Standing Lending Facility (SLF), also known as the Discount Window, after participating in foreign exchange transactions and primary auctions of government securities.

The move is part of a review of the framework governing access to the Discount Window, Tenored Repo Operations and participation in Open Market Operations (OMO), as the apex bank seeks to improve money market functioning and strengthen monetary policy implementation.

In a circular signed by Okey Umeano, acting director, Financial Markets Department, the CBN said restrictions on access to the Discount Window arising from participation in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) had been removed.

The Bank also removed restrictions arising from participation in primary auctions of government securities.

The changes mean that banks can now participate in the FX market and buy government securities at primary auctions without such activities restricting their access to the CBN’s Standing Lending Facility.

Analysts at Quest Merchant Bank Limited said the reforms should improve market liquidity, strengthen monetary policy transmission and deepen participation in the fixed-income market.

‘The measures are likely to deepen activity across the money market and fixed-income markets while signalling growing confidence in FX market stability, reserve adequacy and overall market conditions,’ the analysts said.

The Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Adewale Egbedun has raised the alarm over alleged threats of electoral violence and voter intimidation, calling on the International Community not to wait until violence becomes irreversible before paying attention ahead of Saturday’s governorship election.

Egbedun, who also appealed to the international community not to take sides with any political party before, during and after the election said the body should stand on the side of truth, human rights, constitutional democracy and the rule of law.

The Speaker, in a statement made available to journalists on Friday in Osogbo said the disturbing reports of attacks, intimidation and threats against citizens and political actors in Odo Otin Local Government Area of Osun State in the past 48 hours needs urgent attention.

According to him, ‘the reports before us are deeply troubling. We have received accounts alleging that Armed Military personnel posted to Odo Otin Local Government led by Sikiru Adeboye have been moving through communities in Odo Otin, targeting leaders and members of the Accord political platform. These actions must not be dismissed or politicised. They require immediate, independent and transparent investigation by the appropriate authorities.’

The statement reads further; ‘among the incidents reported is an attack on the residence of an elderly woman, Alhaja Popoola Kuburat Ijadunola (popularly known as Mama Mi Leko), who happened to be an elder sister of former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola. Her residence was invaded and two of her children were taken away. There are also reports of attacks Ayanyemi Joshua Olawale (Lawesco), Fasola Femi (Odofin) and Ajimoti Rasheed Omotayo (Action). Gunshots were fired and Mr Ajimoti’s dog was killed.

‘This is disturbing. No Nigerian citizen, regardless of political affiliation, age, social standing or location, should live in fear of armed personnel or believe that his or her home can be invaded with impunity.

‘Of even greater concern is the release of three (3) armed men who confessed to be working for Francis Eniade in an incident that occurred in Okuku few days ago. Francis Eniade is the APC House of Representatives Candidate who made threats against me in a video circulated widely on social media.

‘These men were arrested with two firearms (Pump Actions) and were personally handed over to the Director of the Department of State Services for further investigation.

‘I am further informed that the suspects have subsequently been released. I am also deeply concerned by what I understand to be an attempt to intimidate me from making public a video recorded which contained their confessional statements. These are serious matters that deserve institutional scrutiny rather than secrecy.

‘Let me state clearly that I cannot be intimidated for demanding for the truth to be established. If anyone has committed an offence, let that person face the law. Circumstances like this which involve firearms, threats, political violence and the deployment of security personnel against citizens, Nigerians and the international community have a legitimate interest in knowing what happened.

‘Democracy cannot survive where citizens are intimidated into silence. Elections cannot be free where political actors fear attacks, arbitrary arrests or the use of security agencies for partisan purposes. The security agencies must protect all citizens equally, irrespective of political affiliation.’

Egbedun, however, called on the Federal Government of Nigeria, the Department of State Services, the Nigeria Police Force, the Nigerian Army and other relevant authorities to immediately investigate these allegations and make the findings public.

‘I equally call on the National Human Rights Commission, civil society organisations, election observers, diplomatic missions and credible international human-rights institutions to pay close attention to developments in Osun State and, where appropriate, independently document allegations of violations of citizens’ rights.

‘The protection of democracy begins with the protection of the ordinary citizen. The voter, the community leader, the political worker, the elderly woman and every Nigerian who has the constitutional right to live without fear.

‘As Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, I will continue to defend the constitutional rights of the people of Osun State and to demand accountability from every institution entrusted with the protection of our citizens.

‘We ask the world to watch Osun State closely. We ask our security agencies to act professionally and impartially. Democracy must not be allowed to become a casualty of political ambition,’ he said.