Category: Business Day

Chief Femi Fani-Kayode has written a lengthy polemic against Atiku Abubakar. Length, however, is not evidence. Nor does repetition transform opinion, disputed recollection or allegation into fact.

There are several claims in his opinion article that require correction or, at the very least, proper context.

The ‘seven attempts’ argument

It is correct that Atiku has sought the presidency in different political cycles since 1993. But Fani-Kayode blurs an important distinction for the purposes of mischief.

Atiku was not a presidential candidate in a Nigerian general election in 1993, 2011 or 2015. Those were contests for party nominations. He was actually on the presidential ballot in 2007, 2019 and 2023. Having emerged as the ADC candidate for 2027, the coming election will be his fourth general-election presidential candidacy, not his seventh.

This matters because Fani-Kayode then compares Atiku with politicians from other countries by counting their actual presidential-election candidacies while counting Atiku’s unsuccessful party primaries as presidential elections. That is not a like-for-like comparison.

Abdoulaye Wade, for example, contested Senegal’s presidential election in 1978, 1983, 1988 and 1993 before winning on his fifth attempt in 2000. He subsequently won again in 2007 and lost in 2012.

More fundamentally, Nigeria’s Constitution does not disqualify anyone because of the number of times he has unsuccessfully sought election. Section 137 bars a person who has already been elected President twice; it does not impose a limit on how many times an eligible Nigerian may contest.

The decision whether persistence represents experience, ambition or something else belongs to voters, not to Fani-Kayode’s theology.

Seven political parties? Not quite so simple

Fani-Kayode also claims that Atiku has belonged to seven political parties.

That calculation apparently treats the People’s Front of Nigeria (PFN) as a political party. It was, in fact, one of the political associations formed during the Babangida transition. It was never registered as a political party. The military government rejected the associations and created the SDP and NRC instead. The PFN tendency subsequently moved into the SDP.

Political movement between parties is certainly a legitimate subject for scrutiny. But Fani-Kayode is an unusual person to present changing parties as evidence of peculiar moral failure. He himself joined the APC, returned to the PDP in 2014, repeatedly denounced the APC afterwards and declared in 2019 that he would rather die than join it – only to return to the APC in September 2021.

Party switching may be criticised. But the standard should apply consistently.

Chief Femi Fani-Kayode has written a lengthy polemic against Atiku Abubakar. Length, however, is not evidence. Nor does repetition transform opinion, disputed recollection or allegation into fact.

There are several claims in his opinion article that require correction or, at the very least, proper context.

The ‘seven attempts’ argument

It is correct that Atiku has sought the presidency in different political cycles since 1993. But Fani-Kayode blurs an important distinction for the purposes of mischief.

Atiku was not a presidential candidate in a Nigerian general election in 1993, 2011 or 2015. Those were contests for party nominations. He was actually on the presidential ballot in 2007, 2019 and 2023. Having emerged as the ADC candidate for 2027, the coming election will be his fourth general-election presidential candidacy, not his seventh.

This matters because Fani-Kayode then compares Atiku with politicians from other countries by counting their actual presidential-election candidacies while counting Atiku’s unsuccessful party primaries as presidential elections. That is not a like-for-like comparison.

Abdoulaye Wade, for example, contested Senegal’s presidential election in 1978, 1983, 1988 and 1993 before winning on his fifth attempt in 2000. He subsequently won again in 2007 and lost in 2012.

More fundamentally, Nigeria’s Constitution does not disqualify anyone because of the number of times he has unsuccessfully sought election. Section 137 bars a person who has already been elected President twice; it does not impose a limit on how many times an eligible Nigerian may contest.

The decision whether persistence represents experience, ambition or something else belongs to voters, not to Fani-Kayode’s theology.

Seven political parties? Not quite so simple

Fani-Kayode also claims that Atiku has belonged to seven political parties.

That calculation apparently treats the People’s Front of Nigeria (PFN) as a political party. It was, in fact, one of the political associations formed during the Babangida transition. It was never registered as a political party. The military government rejected the associations and created the SDP and NRC instead. The PFN tendency subsequently moved into the SDP.

Political movement between parties is certainly a legitimate subject for scrutiny. But Fani-Kayode is an unusual person to present changing parties as evidence of peculiar moral failure. He himself joined the APC, returned to the PDP in 2014, repeatedly denounced the APC afterwards and declared in 2019 that he would rather die than join it – only to return to the APC in September 2021.

Party switching may be criticised. But the standard should apply consistently.

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) has released its audited consolidated and separate financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026.

The result released to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) and London Stock Exchange (LSE) shows the Group posted a profit before tax (PBT) of N603.03 billion, driven by strong performance recorded on the interest and trading income lines, which grew year-on-year (y-o-y) by 7.5 percent and 24.7 percent, respectively.

The strong earnings recorded was moderated by a N46.2 billion fair value loss recognised in H1-2026, limiting y-o-y growth in PBT to 0.4 percent.

The Group grew across its asset lines, reinforcing a balance sheet that is well structured, liquid and diversified. This growth was recorded in each jurisdiction where we operate a banking franchise, and across our Payments, Pension and Funds Management businesses.’

Group’s total assets and shareholders’ funds closed at N18.6trillion and N3.3trillion, respectively. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) remained very strong, closing at 34.9 percent (Bank 29.2 percent ), and asset quality improved as evidenced by IFRS 9 Stage 3 Loans which closed at 3.5 percent and 4.6 percent at both Bank and Group Level in H1-2026 (Bank -3.4 percent, Group 5 percent in FY-2025). Cost of Risk (COR) improved to 0.6 percent from 2.2 percent during the same period.

The Group’s Loan book (net) grew marginally by 0.5 percent from N3.13trillion as of December 2025 to N3.15trillion in June 2026, converse for improved performance on Deposit liabilities which grew by 10.3 percent from N12.87trillion to N14.19trillion during the same period.

Commenting on the results, Segun Agbaje, group chief executive officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO Plc) said; ‘Our half year results speak to the strength of what we have built: a resilient franchise, a strong balance sheet and a business that no longer depends on banking alone.

‘Fair value movements weighed on reported earnings, but the core business held firm. Interest and trading income grew, deposits strengthened, and asset quality improved at Group level. The priority now is to execute with discipline and grow responsibly. Digital is our lever for scaling across Banking, Payments, Pension and Funds Management, and for building a more diversified and resilient financial services group,’ he said.

Overall, the Group continues to post one of the best metrics in the Nigerian Financial Services Industry in terms of key financial ratios – that is, Pre-Tax Return on Equity (ROAE) of 35.9 percent, Pre-Tax Return on Assets (ROAA) of 6.6 percent, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of 34.9 percent (Bank: 29.2 percent) and Cost to Income ratio of 31.5 percent.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), regarded as the engine of the economy, are set to gain improved access to affordable business mobility. This is on account of Elizade JAC Motors, which has partnered with the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) to unveil a mobility and financing solution tailored to the needs of the sector.

The initiative provides SMEs with access to trucks to boost their operations, enabling them to strengthen their logistics operations.

Under the partnership, the company, through its SME-focused offering, is targeting businesses that rely heavily on hired vehicles, transporters or used trucks to move goods and supplies. ‘The initiative provides access to JAC trucks ranging from 1.6-tonne to 10-tonne capacities, with options including petrol, hybrid, CNG and diesel models.’

Speaking at the engagement, Arvind Bhardwaj, Chief Operating Officer, Elizade JAC Motors, said that the initiative was designed to address the recurring transportation expenses faced by SMEs and help businesses transition from depending on third-party transporters to owning their logistics assets.

According to Bhardwaj, the company’s assessment of the total cost of ownership also showed that purchasing used vehicles could become significantly more expensive over time because of maintenance, repairs, tyres, batteries and other running costs.

He said the assessment found that an SME could spend about N8.7 million more over a five-year period with a used vehicle compared with a new JAC truck, when the associated ownership and maintenance costs are considered.

Olumide Olaokun, Senior Brand Manager, Elizade JAC Motors, said the company’s entry-level 1.6-tonne truck is available in petrol and hybrid CNG variants, while the larger 3-tonne, 5-tonne and 10-tonne trucks are diesel-powered.

The hybrid CNG option, according to the company, can travel about 120 kilometres on a tank and could significantly reduce operating costs in areas where CNG infrastructure is available.

For SMEs considering acquisition, the financing structure allows customers to make an initial contribution and finance the balance through partner banks. One financing illustration presented at the engagement involved a 20 per cent initial contribution, an annual interest rate of 25 per cent and a four-year repayment period, with the monthly repayment for the 1.6-tonne truck projected at less than ?800,000, the statement said.

Another option allows customers to make a 10 per cent payment to reserve a vehicle while the bank processes the financing for the balance. The company also said customers who can make a higher initial contribution may be able to speed up the acquisition process.

Olukayode Shode, Zonal Coordinator, South-West Zonal Office of the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), encouraged business owners to take advantage of the initiative, particularly as access to affordable business assets remains an important consideration for SMEs.

Data breaches in various organisations have become a major financial and operational concern, with an average breach now costing organisations an average of $5 million per incident.

Also worrisome is that exposure increases by about $1,100 for every hour an adversary remains undetected.

Francis Anyaegbu, Specialist Adoption Architect at Red Hat, who made these revelations at the Pestra Tech Day event held recently in Lagos with the theme: ‘Closing the Fire Safety Gap in Nigeria’s Built Environment’, also pointed to a 1,500 per cent surge in deepfakes, the spread of unmonitored ‘Shadow AI,’ and the emerging threat that quantum computing poses to conventional encryption.

For businesses, the nation and state levels, the figures highlight the growing importance of rapid threat detection, strong cybersecurity systems and effective incident response.

Anyaegbu, who spoke on ‘Intelligent Security and the Quantum Challenge’, advised organisations to move beyond traditional perimeter-based controls towards open, quantum-safe architectures built on digital trust, machine-speed defence and stronger visibility over automated AI agents and connected systems, highlighting post-quantum cryptography, digital sovereignty and tighter AI governance as foundations for long-term resilience.

‘At the nation and state level, and at the corporate level, companies need to update and adjust their IT and OT security strategy to ensure that not only do they protect their data today from these attacks, but also that in the future, they are able to protect their data from such incidents.’

Also speaking on security, Hanwha Vision’s Regional Manager for Africa, Bassy Omar, examined the growing role of artificial intelligence in modern security operations, highlighting advances in intelligent video surveillance, video analytics, licence plate recognition, thermal imaging and related technologies designed to help organisations detect threats earlier, improve situational awareness and respond more effectively to security incidents.

Opening the discussions earlier, Paul Nwokolo, Managing Director of Pestra Ltd, organizer of the event, said Pestra Tech Day was conceived as more than a product showcase. He described it as a forum for examining technology in practical terms, bringing together the people who design, specify, regulate, deploy and use critical safety, security and communication systems.

Samuel Olumode, Controller General of the Federal Fire Service, who dwelt on the topic: ‘Closing the Fire and Life Safety Gap in Nigeria’s Built Environment’, placed fire detection and prevention at the heart of the discussion.

He emphasised the need to narrow the gap between modern building requirements and the systems, practices and professional capacity needed to protect lives and property. His address reinforced the wider purpose of the event – to look beyond individual products and consider how safety systems are designed, specified, integrated, maintained and used throughout the life of a building.

Olumode revealed that in Nigeria, property worth N74.8 billion was lost to fire incidents in 2025. Within the year, assets worth N935 billion were saved from fire incidents, while 114 lives were lost.

He said a total of 1,866 fire incidents occurred in 2025, while a total of 2,106 lives were affected.

He said more often than not, these fire occurrences are the consequences of negligence, poor maintenance, substandard installations, and a culture that still treats fire safety as an afterthought rather than a non-negotiable requirement.

Ziad Hafez, Senior Territory Manager at Honeywell Technologies, highlighted developments across the firm’s life-safety portfolios, including advanced fire detection, intelligent alarm systems and connected life-safety solutions designed to support earlier warning, faster emergency response and more resilient buildings.

He also underscored Honeywell’s collaboration with Pestra to strengthen access to its fire, life-safety and security technologies in Nigeria, providing consultants, system integrators and end users with a dependable local channel for genuine products, backed by appropriate technical and after-sales support.

The presentations pointed to a broader convergence in building technology. Physical security, fire protection, communications, operational systems and cybersecurity are increasingly expected to function as parts of the same connected environment rather than as isolated disciplines. As buildings become more software-driven and AI-enabled, resilience depends not only on what systems can detect and automate, but also on how securely they exchange, process and protect data.

Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania and Ghana are each betting billions on gas as the fuel that pays for industrialisation and keeps the lights on. Nigeria alone ships enough liquefied natural gas to rank seventh globally, controlling 3.4 percent of world LNG exports, according to the International Gas Union’s World LNG Report 2026.

Senegal and Mauritania are pushing ahead with offshore developments that once looked decades away. Ghana is leaning harder on gas-to-power to steady a grid that industrial investors still treat warily.

None of that guarantees a payoff.

‘Possessing abundant gas reserves alone is no longer enough,’ said Iretomiwa Odusote, regional segment leader for energies and chemicals at Schneider Electric West Africa. Operators, she said, are being judged on three things: how fast they reach first gas, how safely and reliably they run once they get there, and whether they can hold production efficiency for the life of the asset.

The competition isn’t regional anymore. West African projects are chasing the same capital and the same long-term buyers as developments in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Qatar, Australia and East Africa. A project that slips its schedule doesn’t just lose money – it loses its place in the queue for customers who have other options.

That has turned first gas into a race with real financial consequences, given how capital-intensive these projects are from sanctioning onward. But getting there is the easy part, relatively speaking. The harder test comes after startup, when operators have to keep output safe, efficient and commercially viable for years, often decades.

That’s where many facilities still fall short. Data sits in silos. Maintenance is reactive rather than predictive. Energy use goes unmonitored until it shows up as a cost problem. The common thread, Odusote said, is a lack of real-time visibility across production, the kind that lets engineers catch a bottleneck before it becomes downtime.

Part of the issue traces back to how these plants get built. Electrification, automation, safety systems and digital monitoring have traditionally been bid out to separate vendors, each delivering a piece that works on its own but doesn’t necessarily talk to the others. The result, once construction wraps, is a patchwork that’s harder and more expensive to run.

An integrated build, one vendor, one architecture, spanning electrification through digital systems, simplifies life for the engineering and construction firms putting projects together and for the operators who inherit them, Odusote argued. Fewer handoffs during construction; fewer blind spots during operation.

West Africa isn’t short on gas, technical talent or investor interest. What separates the projects that merely get finished from those that generate returns for 20 or 30 years will be execution – how fast they start, how well they run, and how much visibility operators have into their own plants once the ribbon-cutting is over.

Schneider Electric is among the technology suppliers positioning itself around that shift, framing its role less as an equipment vendor and more as an infrastructure partner for a market it says is entering a more demanding phase.

Enugu State Governor, Peter Mbah, has challenged the government and the media to meet at the point of truth, urging journalists to go beyond headlines and political narratives by independently establishing facts through evidence, investigation and context.

Mbah said government had a responsibility to be transparent about its actions and accountable for its results, while the press must independently scrutinise those actions and report the truth, whether the findings exposed shortcomings or revealed progress.

The governor stated this on Thursday while welcoming over 300 editors to the 22nd All Nigeria Editors Conference (ANEC) organised by the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) in Enugu.

The conference has as its theme, ‘The Ballot, the Media and the Task of Keeping Democracy Alive,’ while its sub-theme is ‘When Lies Look Real: Detecting and Debunking AI Misinformation Before, During and After Elections.’

Mbah said the relationship between government and the media should not always be defined by confrontation, stressing that both institutions had different responsibilities, but a common obligation to serve the Nigerian people.

‘Government must be transparent about what it is doing and be accountable for the results. The press must establish the facts and report the truth.

‘Sometimes that truth will expose failure. Sometimes it will reveal progress. The obligation for us both is the same in either case – serving the people of Nigeria,’ he said.

The governor urged journalists to deepen investigative reporting, particularly at a time when artificial intelligence and other technologies were making it increasingly difficult to distinguish between genuine and fabricated information.

He said AI could be used to fabricate photographs, clone voices and manipulate videos to make people appear to say things they never said, warning that the development had increased the responsibility of professional journalists.

‘My challenge to you, therefore, is simple – go deeper, beyond the surface,’ Mbah told the editors.

According to him, rigorous journalism should not involve searching for evidence to support a position that had already been taken.

‘Its value lies precisely in its independence: examine the evidence, test competing claims, establish what happened, and report what you find,’ he said.

Mbah added that the same standard should apply to government and its critics, stressing that government achievements should not be ignored simply because they did not fit a particular political narrative.

‘We have tried to build an Enugu government that is open about what it is doing and clear about what it is trying to achieve. Where we fall short, that should call for scrutiny and be reported. But the same principle applies when the evidence reveals progress,’ he said.

The governor also used the occasion to highlight some of his administration’s projects, including more than 1,500 kilometres of roads constructed or reconstructed, over 7,000 classrooms, Smart Green Schools and Type-2 Primary Healthcare Centres across the state’s 260 wards.

He listed other interventions as water infrastructure, new transport terminals and CNG buses, Enugu Air, the revival of dormant industries and the development of a new city.

Mbah said the administration was working to position Enugu as an economic gateway to the South-East, with the ambition of making the state one of Nigeria’s leading economies and a national leader in human development and quality of life.

He also acknowledged the support of President Bola Tinubu and the Federal Government, particularly in areas of roads, aviation, energy and regional development.

The governor urged the editors to use their presence in Enugu to independently assess the developments in the state.

‘Take some time to explore the city, speak to the people who live and work here, and get a sense of the direction in which Enugu is moving,’ he said.

One of the highpoints of the opening ceremony was the presentation of a plaque for good governance to Governor Mbah by the Guild.

The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has appointed Ethiopian referees to officiate Tuesday’s 2027 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifying match between the Super Eagles of Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau in Bissau.

Tewodros Mitiku will serve as the centre referee, assisted by fellow compatriots Fasika Biru Fasika and Tigle Belachew as first and second assistant referees, respectively. Manuhe Woldetsadik has been appointed as the fourth official.

Senegalese official Yaya Balde will serve as the match commissioner, while former FIFA referee Papa Bakary Gassama of The Gambia will act as the referee assessor.

The appointment comes as the Super Eagles intensify preparations for the crucial Group L encounter at the Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro in Bissau.

The Super Eagles arrived in Bissau on Sunday, determined to build on their hard-fought 2-1 comeback victory over Madagascar at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo on Friday.

Guinea-Bissau defeated Tanzania 2-0 in their first fixture, moving above Nigeria on goal difference.

Tuesday’s fixture will see both teams battle to strengthen their position in Group L after winning their opening qualifying matches.

Nigeria’s Super Eagles have arrived in Bissau ahead of Tuesday’s crucial 2027 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifying clash against Guinea-Bissau.

Nigeria departed Uyo on Sunday aboard a chartered ValueJet aircraft after completing their final training session at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium, where they prepared for their second Group L fixture.

According to Super Eagles Media Officer, Promise Efoghe, the Nigerian delegation arrived at Osvaldo Vieira International Airport in Bissau on Sunday evening ahead of the encounter at the Estádio Nacional 24 de Setembro.

‘The Super Eagles had a final training session earlier on Sunday morning in Uyo before coach Eric Chelle and his players departed for Guinea-Bissau,’ Efoghe said.

The trip followed Nigeria’s 2-1 victory over Madagascar in Uyo on Friday, a result that gave the Super Eagles three points from their opening fixture.

Guinea-Bissau also won their opening Group L match, defeating Tanzania 2-0 to move above Nigeria on goal difference. With both teams starting the campaign with victories, Tuesday’s encounter represents an early battle for control of the group.

Acting General Secretary of the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF), Emmanuel Ikpeme, urged the Super Eagles to remain focused and avoid distractions ahead of the decisive fixture.

Ikpeme made the call as the Nigerian delegation arrived in Bissau for what is expected to be a competitive top-of-the-table clash.

Nigeria have a better record against Guinea-Bissau, winning three of their four previous senior international meetings.

However, the Djurtus recorded a 1-0 victory over Nigeria at the MKO Abiola National Stadium, Abuja, during the 2023 AFCON qualifiers. The Super Eagles responded with a 1-0 victory in Bissau a few days later, with Moses Simon converting a penalty.

Nigeria also defeated Guinea-Bissau 1-0 at the 2023 AFCON finals in Côte d’Ivoire, with the Super Eagles securing victory at the Félix Houphouët-Boigny Stadium in Abidjan.

Guinea-Bissau, ranked 132nd in the world and 38th in Africa, will be seeking another upset when the teams meet on Tuesday.

With Tanzania already guaranteed a place at AFCON 2027 as one of the co-hosts, Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau will be battling for the qualification spot available from Group L.

The Super Eagles will therefore be targeting another victory to strengthen their position in the group and maintain momentum under coach Eric Chelle.

Optimus Bank has launched a blood donation drive in Lagos to support emergency and maternal healthcare, amid concerns over Nigeria’s persistent gap in blood supply.

The initiative, organised under the bank’s Impact Starts With Us corporate social responsibility platform, brought together employees, stakeholders, and members of the public to donate blood under the theme ‘Give Blood. Give Life.’

Ademola Odeyemi, managing director and chief executive officer of Optimus Bank, said the bank was using its platform to support communities beyond financial services.

‘At Optimus Bank, we believe our responsibility goes beyond banking. The strength of any economy is connected to the well-being of its people, and we are committed to using our platform to create meaningful impact in the communities we serve,’ he said.

Odeyemi said the initiative was also aimed at encouraging Nigerians to contribute to efforts that could give patients another chance at life.

Nigeria requires an estimated 1.8 million to two million units of blood annually, but only 371,827 units were collected in 2024, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The shortfall has implications for patients requiring urgent transfusions, including women experiencing bleeding during childbirth, accident victims, children with severe anaemia, people living with sickle cell disorder, and patients undergoing surgery.

Postpartum haemorrhage accounts for about 23 to 30 percent of maternal deaths in Nigeria, according to the WHO, highlighting the importance of timely access to safe blood during childbirth.

Morolake Philip-Ladipo, head of corporate communications at Optimus Bank, said the initiative was designed to encourage voluntary blood donation.

‘Behind every unit of blood is the possibility of helping a mother, a child, an accident victim, or a patient receive the care they urgently need,’ she said.

The drive received technical support from the Department of Haematology and Blood Transfusion, Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH), to ensure compliance with medical and safety standards.

Titilope Adeyemo, a professor who is the head of the department, said regular voluntary donation was necessary to ensure hospitals had blood available when needed.

‘A safe and reliable blood supply is critical to saving lives. Regular voluntary blood donation helps ensure that blood is available for emergencies, childbirth, surgery, and patients who require ongoing transfusion support,’ she said.

The bank said the blood drive forms part of its broader social-impact activities spanning healthcare, education, economic empowerment, and environmental sustainability.

Optimus Bank said it intends for the initiative to extend beyond the immediate collection of blood by encouraging regular voluntary donation among Nigerians.

Botswana has suffered its second sovereign credit rating downgrade from Moody’s in less than a year as a prolonged slump in the global diamond market weakens government revenue and puts pressure on public finances.

The global rating agency on Friday downgraded the Southern African nation’s long-term domestic- and foreign-currency issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa1, leaving the country two notches above junk status.

It also revised the outlook to stable from negative, citing a stronger fiscal policy response and the possibility that a sustained recovery in diamond revenues could slow the pace of debt accumulation.

The downgrade comes less than a year after Moody’s cut Botswana’s rating to Baa1 from A3 in October.

Botswana’s latest rating action highlights the growing fiscal risks facing one of Africa’s historically stronger economies as weaker diamond revenues expose the country’s dependence on the commodity.

Diamonds account for roughly one-third of government revenue and about three-quarters of foreign-exchange earnings, making the prolonged downturn in the global diamond market a major threat to government finances and external buffers.

Moody’s said weaker revenue from diamonds, lower-than-expected receipts from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and disappointing proceeds from newly introduced tax measures had weakened Botswana’s fiscal position.

The agency expects government debt to rise from about 31 percent of GDP in fiscal 2025 to 41 percent by fiscal 2027, despite the government recently reducing its forecast budget deficit for fiscal 2026/27 to 3.1 percent of GDP from 8.9 percent.

The downgrade comes days after Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe said Botswana expected a significantly smaller budget deficit in the current fiscal year, supported by higher-than-expected revenue from the central bank and measures to contain government spending.

Further pressure from De Beers deal

Moody’s also warned that Botswana could face further ratings pressure if it materially increases its investment in De Beers through debt-financed transactions.

Botswana currently owns a 15 percent stake in De Beers, while Anglo American is seeking to sell the diamond producer as part of a broader restructuring of its portfolio.

A significant debt-funded increase in Botswana’s stake could put additional pressure on the country’s fiscal position and trigger another rating action, Moody’s said.

The warning underscores the difficult policy choices facing Botswana as it seeks to protect its position in the diamond industry while managing rising public debt and weakening revenues.

Diamond dependence exposes fiscal vulnerability

Botswana has long been regarded as an African economic success story, transforming its diamond wealth into relatively strong institutions, fiscal buffers, and higher living standards than many commodity-dependent economies.

But its economic structure has also left it highly exposed to changes in the global diamond market.

Botswana is the world’s second-largest producer of natural rough diamonds, and diamonds have historically accounted for about 70 percent of exports, one-third of government revenue and roughly a quarter of GDP.

The sector has been under sustained pressure since late 2023 as global demand and prices weakened.

The downturn has been driven by a combination of weaker luxury spending, softer demand from China and growing competition from lab-grown diamonds.

Diamond prices have fallen substantially from their 2022 highs, reducing export earnings and putting pressure on government revenues.

For Botswana, the weakness is particularly significant because diamond revenues have historically helped the government build fiscal buffers and accumulate foreign-exchange reserves.

External buffers also weakening

The pressure is extending beyond government finances to Botswana’s external position.

Foreign-exchange reserves fell to about $3.8 billion at the end of 2025, from $7.5 billion in 2017, reflecting the impact of weaker diamond export earnings.

The Bank of Botswana has introduced several measures aimed at protecting reserves and supporting the pula.

In July 2025, the central bank increased the downward rate of crawl of the pula to 2.76 percent from 1.51 percent and widened trading margins to plus or minus 7.5 percent from 0.5 percent.

It subsequently introduced asymmetric trading margins in January 2026.

While the measures have helped support the country’s foreign-exchange position, reserves remain significantly below their previous levels, underscoring the longer-term challenge posed by weaker diamond revenues.

S and P also cuts Botswana rating

Moody’s is not the only major ratings agency to have raised concerns about Botswana’s fiscal outlook.

In March, S and P Global Ratings lowered Botswana’s long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB- from BBB, while cutting its short-term issuer credit rating to A-3 from A-2 and maintaining a negative outlook.

The downgrade reflected growing risks to fiscal stability as the country grappled with the prolonged weakness in the diamond market.

S and P’s downgrade took Botswana to its lowest investment-grade rating since the agency began assessing the country in 2001, according to BusinessDay analysis.

With Moody’s now also cutting its rating, Botswana faces increasing pressure to diversify government revenues, strengthen its fiscal position and reduce its dependence on diamonds.

The country remains investment grade under Moody’s Baa2 rating, but continued weakness in diamond revenues, rising debt, or a debt-funded expansion of its De Beers stake could increase pressure on its sovereign credit profile.