THE country’s easing inflation trend is facing twin pressures as higher wages and transport fares hit households within days of each other, economists said.
The P60 daily minimum wage increase for workers in the National Capital Region (NCR) took effect over the weekend, followed by higher fares for major public transport modes nationwide on Monday.
The fare increases-covering jeepneys, buses, taxis, and ride-hailing services-range from P1 to P35 in minimum or flagdown fares, depending on the type of transport.
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera said the two developments could compound existing price pressures, particularly as renewed instability in the Middle East threatens oil supplies and pushes up domestic fuel prices.
While the exact impact remains difficult to quantify, he said inflation is likely to accelerate as higher transport costs and wages add to rising food prices and stronger holiday demand.
‘Previously, the main driver of inflation was food, but in the remaining months of 2026, it might be transportation,’ he told the BusinessMirror.
Headline inflation slowed to 6.1 percent in August, marking its fourth straight month of easing after peaking at 7.2 percent in April.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the biggest contributor to headline inflation in August, accounting for 28.8 percent of the total, with prices in the category rising 4.6 percent.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels followed with a 26.6-percent contribution, while transport accounted for 20.1 percent. Inflation in the two categories stood at 7.9 percent and 13.5 percent, respectively.
Former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Dante B. Canlas also said the fare increases could immediately pinch household budgets, potentially prompting public-transport workers and commuters to push harder for the full implementation of the P85 NCR wage order that remains suspended under court-issued temporary restraining orders.
‘Once the NCR wage order is fully implemented, production costs are expected to increase causing commodity prices to rise and stay elevated,’ Canlas told the BusinessMirror.
The P85 wage increase under Wage Order No. 27 has been challenged before the Pasig City and Navotas City Regional Trial Courts, which issued temporary restraining orders against its implementation.
While the P85 increase remains under legal challenge, the Department of Labor and Employment (Dole) has issued a separate P60 wage increase, which took effect over the weekend.
Ateneo de Manila University economist Leonardo A. Lanzona Jr. estimated that the combined fare and wage increases could add around 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points to headline inflation over the next few months, adding to existing price pressures.
‘That is added pressure, not a shock, and the [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] has already factored wage risks into its forecast. Rice inflation near 20 percent and fuel prices remain the bigger threats,’ Lanzona told the BusinessMirror.
Lanzona also pointed out that the P60 wage increase would provide only a modest boost to workers’ purchasing power once higher transport costs and still-elevated inflation are taken into account.
He noted that the wage hike is equivalent to an 8.6-percent increase, but higher fares could absorb roughly a fifth of that gain, while inflation remains close to 6 percent.
The impact is even more pronounced for informal workers, who are not covered by the minimum wage increase but will still have to absorb higher transport costs, Lanzona said.
This, he said, could make the usual holiday boost in household spending more muted this year.
‘Expect an essentials-first Christmas, cushioned by the 13th-month pay but not a spending boom,’ he added.
Rivera similarly warned that higher wages could easily be cancelled by rising costs, limiting any improvement in households’ purchasing power.
‘Given the economic conditions now, I would expect consumer behavior to be subdued, similar to what happened in 2025. Therefore, this will have impacts on private consumption,’ Rivera said, adding that the Christmas season could still provide a modest lift to consumption.
The impact could extend beyond household consumption and further weigh on economic growth, Canlas said, as the economy struggles to regain momentum after four consecutive quarters of slowing growth.
The economy expanded by just 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2026, its weakest growth in five years. Excluding the pandemic period, it was the slowest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2009 when the economy grew by 1.8 percent.
According to Canlas, the higher transport costs could force households to redirect part of their income toward fares and away from other goods and services.
‘The twin shocks can further slow down real [gross domestic product] growth. Fare increases crowd out household spending while full implementation of the NCR wage order may still hike production costs,’ he added.
Managing pressures
For Lanzona, the government should focus on keeping rice supplies stable, providing targeted transport assistance to vulnerable households and preventing excessive price increases during the holiday season.
He also called for support for informal workers and poorer households who are outside the wage order’s coverage, while urging authorities to stagger fare, power and water increases to avoid piling up major cost increases in a single quarter.
Rivera, meanwhile, expects the BSP to take a cautious approach to monetary policy, with rates either held steady or increased by only 25 basis points.
He said the central bank would likely avoid aggressive rate hikes as it balances price stability with the need to support economic growth, particularly after weak first- and second-quarter growth.