Antonelli starts from the back. Ferrari lights a new engine. Monza will not decide the 2026 title, but it will tell us who is still allowed to want it.
Kimi Antonelli will start his home Grand Prix from the back. Ferrari will fire up a new engine in front of the tifosi. Lando Norris will roll into the lowest-downforce weekend of the year on the back of two straight wins.
Max Verstappen, the reigning Monza champion, is here as a spoiler. If the 2026 championship has felt like a Mercedes procession for most of the summer, the Temple of Speed is where it stops feeling that way.
After a runner-up finish at Zandvoort, Antonelli leaves the Netherlands with 242 points and a 59-point lead over teammate George Russell and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, tied on 183 – Russell ahead on countback with two wins to Hamilton’s one. Norris, on 159, has clawed 46 points off Antonelli’s lead across Hungary and Zandvoort, narrowing the gap from 129 points before the summer break to 83 now. Charles Leclerc sits fifth on 155, Verstappen sixth on 112. In the constructors’, Mercedes lead Ferrari 425 to 338, McLaren third on 263, Red Bull fourth on 186. Monza will not decide any of it. It can bend the arc.
This is also the last time it will do so as a standard weekend. Monza has been confirmed for the sprint format from 2027 through 2029, meaning three days without a mid-Saturday sprint – three sessions of practice, one qualifying hour, one race – is now a scarce commodity here.
The weekend’s biggest fact is a paperwork fact. Mercedes will bolt a fresh internal combustion engine into Antonelli’s W17 – his fifth of the season, one beyond the four-unit allocation – along with a fresh turbocharger, energy store, control electronics, MGU-K, exhaust and PU ancillary component. The cumulative sanction exceeds fifteen grid places, which means Antonelli will start behind the entire field regardless of what he does in qualifying. Some outlets have tallied the penalty at a full twenty places. The effect is identical.
It is not a failure penalty. It is a strategic one. Mercedes have been running near the ceiling of their allocation since Antonelli’s Barcelona retirement and a subsequent forced change at Spa-Francorchamps, and, as Toto Wolff told reporters after Zandvoort, his engineers ran the numbers on where a fresh unit would cost them least. The answer was long straights, easy overtaking and a Mercedes power unit tuned to the circuit. ‘The algorithm,’ Wolff said, ‘does not take nationality into consideration.’ Antonelli, publicly, has agreed with the math; privately, he has to work his way through the entire grid in front of the crowd that grew up watching Alberto Ascari.
Russell, whose reliability profile is similar, has not yet been assigned a matching penalty. Motorsport.com reports that Mercedes are weighing Baku – longer straight, more forgiving overtaking – as the venue where he serves his own hit. For this Sunday, that leaves Russell as Mercedes’ pole hope and the only Silver Arrow with a clean shot at a home-race raid on Ferrari.
The engine story on the other side of the paddock is the one the tifosi came for. Ferrari’s engine department, led by Enrico Gualtieri, has cleared the evolved 067/7 power unit – developed under the FIA’s Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities framework, marketed internally as ADUO2 – for its competitive debut at Monza. Both Hamilton and Leclerc will run the upgraded six-cylinder as their fourth unit of the season, and, per reporting from Scuderiafans and Motorsport.com, neither will take a grid penalty for the swap.
The claimed gain is roughly 15 horsepower, sourced from a revised combustion chamber, a reworked turbocharger (same diameter, different blade angle and count) and a new Shell fuel developed in Hamburg. Ferrari’s own modelling, cited by Motorsport.com, suggests it should halve the deficit to the class-leading Mercedes M17 unit built in Brixworth. Torque delivery has been reshaped to better distribute the hybrid’s electrical energy across a lap that offers almost nothing to recover it. The SF-26 will race in its lowest-downforce configuration of the year, running a new, more aggressive version of the Macarena rear wing and retaining the FTM blown-exhaust system unless Ferrari decide on Saturday night that even more drag has to come out of the car. The livery will nod to Michael Schumacher’s Ferrari years, a piece of theatre the marketing department could not resist and the sporting department cannot afford to embarrass.
Because that is the tension. Ferrari have won three of the last 19 Italian Grands Prix and finished fourth and sixth here in 2025. They are 87 points behind Mercedes with ten rounds still to run after Monza. If the tifosi are being asked to believe in a title revival, the belief has to start on Sunday afternoon – with a car that is not, on paper, ideally suited to the circuit even after the wing change.
If Monza is a referendum on Ferrari’s engine, it is also a referendum on McLaren’s summer. Norris won at the Hungaroring – slow, high-downforce – and then at Zandvoort – banked, twisty, direction-changing – by 11.536 seconds over Antonelli after taking pole. Monza is the aerodynamic opposite of both: the shortest lap of the year in wing area, the highest in top-end demand. If the MCL40 is quick here, it is quick everywhere. Team principal Andrea Stella has already called the weekend the team’s real benchmark. McLaren confirmed on 29 August that Norris will remain with the team through at least the end of 2030, closing off one of the noisier silly-season rumours before it could infect the run-in.
Oscar Piastri, on 104 points, starts the weekend seventh in the drivers’ table on a consecutive points-finish streak now above 40 races – the third-longest in Formula 1 history, and one only Lewis Hamilton (54) sits comfortably clear of. It is a stat that flatters and indicts him at once: nobody has been more reliable, and nobody near the front has converted less of it into wins since the break. Norris’s surge is not McLaren’s collective surge, and intra-team management will matter more as the calendar tightens than the team has publicly allowed.
The defending Monza winner arrives having crashed out on lap one at Zandvoort. Verstappen qualified seventh, said he had left nothing on the table, then lost the rear on painted asphalt exiting the final banking corner and hit the barrier hard enough to red-flag the session. Laurent Mekies called it ‘a step backwards.’ Verstappen is 130 points behind Antonelli, and his title defence – mathematically alive, functionally over – has stopped being interesting.
Monza is a useful diagnostic. Twelve months ago Verstappen took pole with a 1:18.792, the fastest lap in Formula 1 history at an average of 264.681 km/h, and won by 19.207 seconds over Norris. The 2026 rulebook is different and the RB22 is not the RB21, but Monza remains a circuit that flatters Red Bull’s engine package. If the team cannot make Q3 count here, Zandvoort was not a bad weekend. It was the direction of travel.
Alongside him, Isack Hadjar’s status is still unresolved. The Frenchman, eighth in the standings on 68 points, fractured his wrist during the summer shutdown – punching a heavy bag, he told reporters at Zandvoort – and missed the Dutch Grand Prix. He said this week that the wrist was healing quickly and that he was hopeful of racing. Liam Lawson, who scored six points as his stand-in at Zandvoort, is on standby.
The story worth watching in the midfield is Oliver Bearman. The 21-year-old Haas driver is 13th in the championship on 18 points – almost all of Haas’s 21-point constructors’ total – and leads Esteban Ocon 8-4 in Grand Prix qualifying this season, per Sky Sports’ team-mate head-to-head data. Monza’s minimal tyre stress and premium on ballistic straight-line speed suits a Ferrari-engined car with nothing left to prove but its driver, and Bearman, remember, made his F1 debut in a Ferrari in 2024, subbing for Carlos Sainz in Jeddah at 24 hours’ notice.
Elsewhere: Racing Bulls sit fifth on 66 points, three clear of Alpine, where Pierre Gasly (44) added a single point at Zandvoort and Franco Colapinto has signed a 2027 extension. Audi, in only their second race back from summer break, jumped to eighth on 16 points, with Gabriel Bortoleto continuing to outscore Nico Hlkenberg. Williams (11 points) will be watched most closely for Carlos Sainz, who is nearing a fresh contract after admitting to a ‘worry’ phase this summer. Aston Martin, ninth on three, again pin their hopes on Fernando Alonso. Cadillac – Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez – remain on zero, and the paddock chatter around Bottas’s future has already started.
Pirelli’s nominated compounds are the C3 Hard, C4 Medium and C5 Soft – the softest trio in the 2026 range, one step softer than Zandvoort. Monza’s smooth, recently resurfaced tarmac produces almost no graining and almost no wear; the 2025 race saw just 19 pit stops across the field over 53 laps. The default remains a one-stop built around a long C3 stint. What could complicate that is the forecast, per GP Blog: 33°C on Friday, 34°C for both qualifying and the race, with a two per cent chance of rain. The Hard compound will be the tell. If it holds, one stop. If it does not, the Medium and Soft are close enough in raw pace to make a two-stopper plausible.
Lights out is 15:00 CEST on Sunday, 6 September, following practice at 12:30 and 16:00 CEST on Friday, a final practice at 12:30 on Saturday and qualifying at 16:00.
Expect pole to Russell, who has never wanted a Sunday more. Expect Norris to win it, in a car that will make its own case on the straight better than the Ferraris will on power alone. Expect Leclerc on the podium and Hamilton just off it, close enough to keep the ADUO2 project honest without vindicating it. Expect Antonelli through to the points on merit rather than mercy, and Verstappen no better than eighth. Expect, for the first time since Barcelona, a championship that is no longer just Kimi Antonelli’s to lose.