Category: Daily Monitor

While politicians are eager to spend taxpayers’ money and corporations continue to exploit tax avoidance and evasion loopholes, ordinary citizens remain the primary financiers of Uganda’s national budget.

In the previous financial year, Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) added nearly 730,000 new taxpayers, bringing the total number of registered taxpayers to 5.25 million.

However, according to the Auditor General’s Report, only 48 percent of registered taxpayers actually paid taxes.

This means that approximately 2.7 million taxpayers, about 52 percent of those registered, remain inactive. Of those who contributed revenue, 20 percent were employees under the Pay as You Earn (PAYE) system, where taxes are automatically deducted from salaries.

This suggests that growth in the taxpayer register has not been matched by effective compliance enforcement, particularly in corporate income taxation.

Before the 2025/26 financial year, Uganda’s domestic revenue collections increased from Shs22 trillion in the 2021/22 financial year to Shs32 trillion in 2024/25, representing a 46 percent increase over four years.

Yet this growth has not translated into a stronger revenue effort. Uganda’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains stagnant at 13.5 percent, below the 15 percent benchmark for developing countries, the sub-Saharan African average of 18.6 percent, and the global average of 23 percent.

This indicates that while the economy is growing and revenues are increasing, government is not capturing a larger share of national income, particularly from multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals.

Revenue growth has largely mirrored economic expansion rather than reflecting structural improvements in tax mobilisation.

The same people paying more

Tax analysts and tax justice advocates describe this trend as tax deepening, a situation where government extracts more revenue from existing taxpayers rather than expanding the tax base.

The ordinary taxpayer pays PAYE, Value Added Tax (VAT) on purchases, excise duties on fuel, and other indirect taxes.

Meanwhile, corporations, investors, and wealthy individuals often benefit from tax exemptions, tax holidays, and the ability to repatriate up to 100 percent of their profits.

Members of Parliament (MPs) have also insulated themselves from part of the tax burden.

Although MPs pay PAYE on their basic salaries, they passed amendments exempting many of their allowances and emoluments from taxation, unlike the allowances earned by ordinary citizens.

At the same time, government borrowing continues to grow. Public debt is estimated at around Shs130 trillion.

If repaid immediately, every Ugandan, including newborn children, would carry a debt burden of roughly Shs3 million.

The country has already surpassed the 50 percent debt-to-GDP threshold, breaching the Ministry of Finance’s Charter for Fiscal Responsibility and exceeding levels often regarded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as prudent.

Today, nearly Shs40 out of every Shs100 collected in domestic revenue goes toward servicing debt, which significantly reduces the funds available for health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Who really funds the budget?

When Daily Monitor interviewed citizens for this article, seven out of 10 respondents said government funds the budget. This reflects a broader civic awareness gap.

In reality, the budget is financed primarily by citizens and businesses through taxes and other revenues generated from economic activity. Government merely collects, allocates, and spends these resources.

Africa Kiiza, a PhD Fellow at the Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences at Universität Hamburg, says the burden falls disproportionately on ordinary Ugandans.

On April 25, 2026, Parliament approved a Shs84.39 trillion budget for the 2026/27 financial year. Of this amount, Shs44.18 trillion, about 52 percent, will be financed domestically, largely through taxation.

Kiiza argues that Uganda’s revenue collection system increasingly relies on a narrow base of compliant and easily targeted taxpayers, particularly salaried workers and consumers.

‘A keen examination of URA’s revenue collection structure reveals a deeper imbalance, an increasing reliance on a narrow base of compliant and easy-to-target taxpayers,’ he says.

The target, he says, rotates around salaried workers and consumers, while at the same time, large corporations and high-net-worth actors often contribute less than their economic footprint would suggest.’

Kiiza further notes that tax evasion has become widespread among many corporations, despite their capacity to meet tax obligations. URA estimates that Uganda loses approximately $500m (Shs2 trillion) annually through money laundering and other illicit financial flows.

Corporate tax evasion

Uganda’s tax-to-GDP ratio has remained between 13 and 15 percent, below the 18-20 percent range often recommended by the IMF and World Bank for lower-middle-income economies seeking sustainable development financing.

According to Kiiza, this gap reflects weaknesses in tax enforcement, generous tax incentives, and persistent tax avoidance practices.

As a result, indirect taxes such as VAT and excise duty, which account for roughly 30-35 percent of URA collections, have become the backbone of government revenue. These taxes are inherently regressive because everyone pays them, including low-income households.

Every purchase, from fuel and transport to soap and household goods, contributes to financing the national budget.

Meanwhile, highly profitable sectors such as telecommunications, banking, extractives, and fast-moving consumer goods often reduce their effective tax burden through investment deductions, accelerated depreciation, loss carry-forwards, and sector-specific exemptions.

Uganda also faces challenges associated with profit shifting and transfer pricing, where multinational companies allocate costs and profits across subsidiaries to minimise taxable income in higher-tax jurisdictions.

Technical gaps remain

While URA has strengthened its audit capacity in recent years, significant technical gaps remain between tax authorities and multinational corporations.

According to Kiiza, local companies are increasingly adopting similar tax-minimisation strategies. In sectors such as manufacturing, agribusiness, and telecommunications, complex ownership structures and intra-group transactions often obscure actual profitability.

Uganda’s investment-led growth strategy has relied heavily on tax holidays and exemptions, especially within special economic zones, agro-processing, and export-oriented industries.

Fiscal analysts and civil society organisations estimate that these exemptions cost the country around 2 percent of GDP annually, about Shs5 trillion in foregone revenue.

Although such incentives are intended to attract investment and create jobs, weak enforcement of expiry provisions often transforms temporary incentives into long-term revenue losses.

Meanwhile, PAYE continues to be deducted automatically from formal workers. Small traders and consumers bear VAT and excise duties embedded in everyday goods and services. Even those in the informal sector contribute indirectly through consumption taxes.

The result is a fundamental paradox within Uganda’s tax system: those with the least bargaining power contribute most consistently, while those with the greatest capacity to structure and shift income often contribute proportionally less.

A question of fairness

Kiiza argues that Uganda’s budget is more than a technical financial document; it reflects economic power relations. ‘Answering who funds the national budget exposes a structural imbalance: a system increasingly sustained by ordinary citizens, while significant corporate and high-wealth fiscal space remains undertaxed, underenforced, or selectively exempted.’

Without reforms to tax incentives, stronger corporate transparency, improved enforcement, and greater international tax cooperation, he warns that the fairness and sustainability of Uganda’s fiscal system will remain in doubt.

Ultimately, these challenges could undermine Uganda’s long-term ambition of achieving meaningful middle-income status.

A Kampala court has sentenced a 31-year-old businesswoman to a fine of Shs 100,000 or two months in prison for unlawfully obtaining and disclosing a client’s personal data.

Finah Atlist, a resident of Kalerwe zone in Kampala, was sentenced on Friday, June 12, 2026, by Makindye Grade One Magistrate Geoffrey Akena. The conviction followed a successful plea bargain agreement between Atlist and the prosecution, an arrangement where an accused person pleads guilty in exchange for a lighter sentence.

“You are convicted on your plea of guilty,” Magistrate Akena ruled.

The prosecution established that in October 2025, Atlist and others still at large-acting as agents for Gold Credit, an online money lending application-unlawfully obtained and disclosed the National Identity Card details of a client, Apecho Oliver, to third parties without authorization.

Atlist pleaded guilty to the unlawful obtaining and disclosure of personal data, which violates Section 35 of the Data Protection and Privacy Act, 2019, and Regulation 34 of the Data Protection and Privacy Regulations. She further admitted to operating without registering with the Personal Data Protection Office, contrary to Section 29(3) of the same law.

While Uganda’s Data Protection and Privacy Act, 2019 strictly regulates how personal information is collected and processed, digital rights experts warn that data breaches remain a persistent threat in the country. The problem is heavily fueled by rapid digitalization, weak enforcement mechanisms, and a lack of public awareness regarding digital rights.

The vulnerabilities in Uganda’s data systems were highlighted in a recent report by Unwanted Witness, a civil society organization advocating for digital rights. The regional survey, which assessed 48 companies across Uganda, Kenya, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe, revealed that Uganda still lags significantly behind in safeguarding personal data.

According to the Unwanted Witness index, Kenya recorded the highest overall data protection score at 47.3 percent, while Zimbabwe ranked the lowest at 23.1 percent. Across the evaluated sectors, e-commerce platforms performed the best with a compliance score of 50.1 percent, closely followed by digital lending services at 44.9 percent. In contrast, telecommunications and financial services tied at 39.7 percent, online betting scored 33.8 percent, and e-government platforms ranked the lowest at a meager 11.1 percent.

Suzanne York does not trade in despair. After more than two decades working at the intersection of climate change, human rights, and global population dynamics, she has every reason to be cynical. She has seen global populations surge, watched international climate negotiations inch forward at a frustrating pace, and witnessed hard-won reproductive rights come under renewed threat. Yet she remains steady, grounded in a belief that action no matter how small still matters.

‘ Nobody really knows what’s going to happen,’ she says. ‘So we keep doing something. It can be something small. We don’t all have to be big activists calling for change. We just do what we can.’ It is this quiet persistence, rather than dramatic optimism, that defines York’s approach to one of the most complex challenges of our time.

A Career Built on Connection

As Director of Transition Earth, a project under the Earth Island Institute, York has spent over 25 years navigating the intersections many policymakers still treat separately. Her work cuts across nonprofit advocacy, government engagement, and international development, but its core message is simple: the world’s problems are deeply interconnected. Early in her career, York worked on globalization issues, traveling to international forums where she observed the unintended consequences of economic policy. In countries like Brazil and India, she saw how global trade systems often disadvantaged smallholder farmers, undermined food security, and intensified inequality.

In the Amazon, she witnessed how indigenous communities long regarded as stewards of biodiversity were increasingly marginalized in favor of extractive industries. These experiences reshaped her understanding of environmentalism. Protecting forests, she realised, could not be separated from protecting the people who depend on them. Climate change was not just an environmental issue; it was also about livelihoods, health systems, gender equity, and political power. ‘You can’t work in a silo,’ she explains. ‘You can’t just focus on women’s health without also addressing climate change. Everything is connected.’

This philosophy aligns with the Population, Health, and Environment (PHE) model, an integrated development approach that links reproductive health services, environmental conservation, and sustainable livelihoods. Research from organisations like United Nations Population Fund and World Health Organisation reinforces this view, showing that access to education, healthcare, and family planning not only improves individual well-being but also strengthens climate resilience and reduces pressure on ecosystems.

The work of holding the threads together

Founded in 2015, Transition Earth operates as a platform for awareness, dialogue, and connection. Through blogs, webinars, reports, and digital storytelling, the initiative brings together voices that are often fragmented across disciplines. On the surface, the work may appear modest. There are no sweeping policy mandates or billion-dollar interventions. But York sees it differently: as essential connective tissue in a world where climate discourse is often siloed. ‘It’s my chance to work on issues I care about,’ she says. ‘It’s just so beautiful to really raise awareness.’

In an era dominated by high-level climate summits such as the Conference of the Parties (COP), York offers a measured critique. While acknowledging the importance of these global gatherings in fostering partnerships and visibility, she questions their pace and impact. ‘There’s some value in the connections people make,’ she says. ‘But the pace of change is so slow and we need quicker change nowadays.’ Instead, she points to smaller, solution-oriented convenings and grassroots initiatives as spaces where tangible progress often happens faster. This reflects a growing consensus in climate governance research: that localised, community-driven approaches frequently deliver more immediate and context-specific results than large-scale negotiations alone.

The weight of the moment

York does not shy away from the emotional toll of her work. ‘I feel overwhelmed quite often,’ she admits. ‘Every year we have more challenges.’ From rising global temperatures and biodiversity loss to widening inequality and the erosion of reproductive rights, the scale of today’s crises can feel relentless. In the United States, recent rollbacks in reproductive healthcare protections have added a deeply personal dimension to her advocacy.

Globally, these challenges are interconnected.

Studies by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlight how climate change disproportionately affects women and vulnerable communities, particularly in developing regions. Limited access to education and healthcare, including family planning, can exacerbate poverty cycles and reduce adaptive capacity in the face of climate shocks. For York, this is precisely why reproductive rights are not a separate issue but a central one. Empowering women, she argues, is fundamental to environmental sustainability.

When women have access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities, communities tend to experience improved environmental outcomes, from reduced deforestation to better resource management. Similarly, indigenous land rights remain critical. In biodiversity-rich regions like the Amazon, indigenous-managed lands have been shown to have significantly lower deforestation rates compared to other areas. Protecting these communities is not only a matter of justice it is a climate strategy.

Looking Forward: Betting on the Next Generation

Despite the weight of these challenges, York’s vision for the future is strikingly grounded and hopeful. Over the next five years, she wants to grow Transition Earth into a more dynamic, youth-driven platform. Her goal is not scale for its own sake, but impact through fresh voices and perspectives. ‘Even if it’s just a team of four young people,’ she says, ‘that’s a big change for us. That would be a really great way to push our issues into the mainstream.’

This emphasis on youth is more than symbolic. Across the globe, young people are increasingly at the forefront of climate activism, policy innovation, and digital advocacy. From local community initiatives to global movements, they are reshaping how environmental and social issues are understood and addressed. York sees them not just as participants, but as leaders of the next phase of change.

The Power of Trying

In the end, what sustains York is not certainty but possibility. When the news cycle turns bleak, she returns to the simplest act: creating, communicating, contributing. Whether it is a newsletter, a webinar, or a story, it is a way of pushing back against inertia. ‘We put together this newsletter,’ she recalls of one particularly difficult week, ‘and I thought: at least we’re trying.’ ‘The world can change on a dime. We just don’t know. So we have to try.’ She adds In a time defined by uncertainty, that insistence to keep trying, to keep connecting, to keep believing in incremental change may be one of the most radical acts of all.

Uganda’s rising public debt and the increasing cost of servicing that debt are emerging as major concerns for policymakers and economists, who warn that the trend could undermine the country’s long-term economic growth and development ambitions. The warning comes as the country’s debt stock continues to grow, driven largely by increased government borrowing to finance infrastructure projects, support economic recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic and bridge persistent budget deficits.

According to the Bank of Uganda’s State of the Economy Report for March 2026, Uganda’s provisional total public debt stock increased by 21.2 percent to Shs130.22 trillion by the end of January 2026, compared to the same period in January 2025. The Central Bank cautions that while Uganda’s debt remains sustainable, the growing burden of debt servicing is placing significant pressure on public finances.

‘High borrowing costs continue to bear down on the budget, even as emerging geopolitical tensions could exert pressure to spend,’ the Bank of Uganda noted in the report. The report projected interest payments on public debt to rise to 4.7 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 2025/26 financial year, up from 3.7 percent in 2024/25. This increase was expected to crowd out spending on critical sectors such as health, education and infrastructure.

Fiscal space under pressure

Debt servicing is consuming an increasingly large share of government revenue. The Bank of Uganda estimates that debt service obligations amounted to 35.7 percent of domestic revenue in the 2024/25 financial year and are projected to peak at 45.3 percent in 2025/26, before averaging about 40 percent over the medium-term. ‘This is unsustainable and calls for fiscal prudence going forward,” the Central Bank warned. Economists argue that the growing debt burden leaves the government with fewer resources to respond to economic shocks and limits its ability to invest in development priorities.

The Bank of Uganda further notes that high debt service costs can interfere with broader economic activity by increasing the cost of capital, complicating monetary policy implementation and potentially threatening financial stability if investors begin to doubt the government’s capacity to meet its obligations. Nevertheless, Uganda’s debt sustainability assessment for the year ending June 2025 classified the country as facing a moderate risk of debt distress, with public debt remaining sustainable in the medium to long-term. The Central Bank maintains that Uganda retains the capacity to meet its debt obligations without requiring exceptional financial assistance or defaulting on repayments.

Public debt, measured in present value terms, is projected to peak at 49.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 2025/26 financial year, remaining below the 50 percent threshold set under the East African Community convergence criteria. However, the favourable outlook depends on continued fiscal discipline, the timely commencement of commercial oil production, prudent management of oil revenues and successful implementation of the government’s ten-fold growth strategy.

A decade of rising debt

Uganda’s public debt has grown steadily over recent years. In December 2021, the country’s total public debt stood at Shs73.5 trillion, equivalent to approximately $20.7 billion. External debt accounted for Shs45.72 trillion, while domestic debt stood at Shs27.77 trillion, representing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 49.7 percent. The government attributed much of the increase to financing pandemic-related interventions, cushioning households and businesses from economic shocks, and covering revenue shortfalls.

By December 2022, public debt had risen to Shs80.8 trillion ($21.7 billion), with projections indicating an increase to Shs88.9 trillion by June 2023. At the end of December 2023, Uganda’s total public debt had climbed further to Shs93.38 trillion ($24.69 billion), comprising Shs55.37 trillion in external debt and Shs38.01 trillion in domestic debt. The Finance Ministry projected public debt to reach Shs97.64 trillion by June 2024, equivalent to $25.7 billion. The latest figures from the Bank of Uganda now place the debt stock at over Shs130 trillion, highlighting the rapid pace at which government obligations have expanded.

Debt servicing largest budget item

The growing debt burden is becoming increasingly evident in Uganda’s National Budget. For the 2026/27 financial year, the government plans to spend approximately Shs33.4 trillion on debt servicing alone, representing nearly 40 percent of the Shs84.3 trillion national budget. Interest payments are projected at Shs12.4 trillion, driven largely by domestic borrowing, while principal repayments will push total debt servicing costs above Shs33 trillion, making it the largest expenditure item in the budget.

In a minority report presented during parliamentary debate on the 2026/27 budget, former Kira Municipality Member of Parliament Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda highlighted the growing fiscal burden. The report indicated that the government plans to borrow Shs11.27 trillion externally and Shs25.78 trillion domestically, while debt servicing will consume Shs33.6 trillion, equivalent to 39.8 percent of the total national budget.

Economists raise alarm

Economists warn that the increasing share of resources devoted to debt repayment could significantly undermine Uganda’s growth prospects. Dr John Mutenyo, a senior lecturer at the College of Business and Management Sciences, said in an interview with the Daily Monitor at Makerere University on June 10 that borrowing itself is not necessarily harmful, but excessive debt servicing can become a serious obstacle to development. ‘Borrowing is not bad per se, but high debt servicing is dangerous because it eats into public resources. When borrowing becomes excessive and debt servicing obligations increase, the government is left with limited resources for service delivery, roads, and other development projects.

This will seriously affect the country’s growth prospects,’ he argued. Dr Mutenyo observed that an increasing share of government revenue is being directed toward debt repayments, leaving less money available for productive investments. ‘All you are left with is money for paying salaries, Parliament, administration and other recurrent expenditures. Money for development projects becomes limited because the government must first meet its debt obligations,’ he said. He warned that reduced investment in infrastructure and other productive sectors could slow economic growth. ‘If you are not investing, you cannot grow. It is very dangerous for the economy.’

Dr Mutenyo argues that the most practical solution is to reduce new borrowing, while gradually paying down existing debt. He further stated: ‘If borrowing is reduced, the government can progressively pay off old debt, both principal and interest. Eventually, less money will be spent on debt servicing, creating room for investment in infrastructure and other services.’ He cautioned that continued borrowing would only increase future repayment obligations and make it more difficult to achieve Uganda’s long-term development goals.

Efficient use of borrowed funds critical

Dr Brian Sserunjogi, a research fellow in the Macro-economics Department at the Economic Policy Research Centre, agrees that debt remains a concern, but argues that the quality of spending matters just as much as the level of borrowing. ‘Countries such as China, Japan and the US borrow extensively. The issue is whether borrowed funds are invested efficiently and generate economic returns,’ he said. Dr Sserunjogi emphasised the need to strengthen public investment management, reduce project inefficiencies and ensure that borrowed resources finance projects capable of generating economic growth and future revenues.

He also identified low national savings as another obstacle to Uganda’s economic transformation. Many Ugandans still save through informal investments rather than formal financial institutions, while low household incomes limit the ability to save. ‘If people can go for a week without handling money, building a savings culture becomes difficult,’ Dr Sserunjogi observed.

Balancing growth and sustainability

Despite concerns over debt levels, Uganda’s debt indicators remain within internationally accepted thresholds, and the government maintains that borrowing has been necessary to finance infrastructure development and support economic recovery. The government has introduced various initiatives aimed at promoting savings, including voluntary savings schemes and efforts to deepen capital markets.

However, both the Bank of Uganda and independent economists agree that maintaining debt sustainability will require greater fiscal discipline, improved domestic revenue mobilisation, efficient public spending and careful management of future borrowing. As Uganda prepares for the anticipated oil production era and pursues its ambitious economic transformation agenda, the challenge for policymakers will be balancing development financing needs with the imperative of preventing debt from becoming a constraint on future growth.

The coming years will determine whether public borrowing serves as a catalyst for economic transformation or evolves into a growing burden that limits Uganda’s development potential.

A community-based environment programme is succeeding in restoring degraded fragile ecosystems in the districts of Bushenyi, Mitooma and Sheema. The initiative under Kitagata Water Catchment Protection project that started in 2025, has seen 51.11 acres of wetlands restored, 400 bamboo, 10,000 Calliandra and 125,800 trees planted in communities. Mr Innocent Tumwesigye, the project manager, says the project was started after it was realised that enforcement alone was not giving results. It was then decided that engaging communities would offer a lasting solution.

‘We started with sensitising communities and recruited 540 of them to be champions for this project. These members, together with our team, moved and engaged the larger communities including those that were engaged in depleting the environment such as sand miners and wetland encroachers,’ Mr Tumwesigye said. He said with the help of local leaders, residents came to appreciate the importance of conserving the environment and have since become watchdogs who closely monitor who degrades wetlands or carries out illegal activities.

Mr Tumwesigye said when gabions when constructed under the project, swamps and grassland regenerated and the communities became excited and vowed to protect them. ‘They started seeing wetlands as a resource, where they could get grass for mulching their gardens, pasture for their animals and fish. The local communities are now enforcing restoration efforts and protecting the environment themselves,’ he said. Mr Mabaati Mwebembezi Mabaati, the leader of sand miners in Kizinda-Kigoma Town Council, said after sensitisation, they now carry out controlled sand-mining, which does not destroy the environment.

‘As we mine, we ensure roads and wetlands are not encroached on and the gullies are filled. We always seek guidance from authorities and we have guidelines. Whoever tries to breach these guidelines is stopped or reported to authorities,’ he said.

He said all miners are now required to plant trees in areas they operate from. He said the trees are supplied free of charge to the miners. Mr Posiano Azairwe, one of the local leaders implementing the project in Mitooma District, said what people lacked was sensitisation.

‘Issues of environment do need force and enforcement alone. When technical people and leaders come to the grassroots, local people are capable of implementing projects and policies without wasting resources. People are now competing on who has planted more trees,’ he said. The Sheema Resident District Commissioner, Ms Jane Asiimwe Muhindo, said the project has proved that community engagement is the best tool in implementation projects. ‘Community engagement breeds a sense of ownership. We have seen with this project that people have realised the importance of protecting the environment. The local communities can earn and our work on environmental conservation has been simplified,’ Ms Muhindo said.

Mr Hillary Igambiriine, the resident district commissioner for Bushenyi , commended the initiative for promoting environmental conservation. ‘As part of this programme, farmers are being registered and sensitised to protect the catchment areas serving the Warugo and Kitagata Water treatment plants and Nyaruzinga, among other wetlands. Human activities such as brick-making, sand-mining, and wetland-encroachment are beginning to reduce because of this project,’ Mr Igambiriine said. Ms Rose Kebirungi, the deputy chief administrative officer of Sheema District, highlighted the growing challenge of water scarcity across the Greater Bushenyi Sub-region, which she attributed to environmental degradation.

Mr Benedict Naturinda, the stakeholder mobilisation consultant of the project, said the project has had some challenges which include destruction of young trees by animals, bushfires and soil erosion. The project is implemented by National Water and Sewerage Corporation in partnership with World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the World Bank. Other participants include Cool wave Contractors, which constructed stone gabions and animal watering points; Keirere Green Africa Agency (KEGRA), which spearheaded restoration activities through tree-planting; and Cielo Country Inn Projects Ltd, which coordinated stakeholder engagement, community mobilisation, awareness creation and capacity-building activities.

‘There is food at home’. That is what my mum used to say when my siblings and I asked for chips-chaps or chips-chicken while driving home from church on Sundays. At the time, it felt disappointing, but adulthood has made the lesson clearer. Imagine depending on a restaurant for every meal. What happens if it closes, prices suddenly double, or there is a shortage, and it simply cannot serve you? That is when you appreciate the value of having food at home and the ability to cook for yourself.

In many ways, that is similar to how energy works. For Uganda, it may seem easier to export crude oil and import refined products from countries with large refineries. Many countries do exactly that. However, relying entirely on external suppliers also means depending on decisions, systems, and supply chains outside the country’s control. Recent conflicts in the Gulf region disrupted global energy supplies and demonstrated how vulnerable countries become when they depend heavily on imported fuel. Once you rely on others for something as essential as energy, the importance of having your own ‘food at home’ becomes much clearer.

Firstly, cooking at home lets you plan better. You decide what, when and how much to cook. In energy, this is what economists call energy security. The ability to have reliable and predictable access to the fuel you need, without being fully exposed to disruptions outside your control. Uganda’s demand for petroleum products continues to rise. This matters because Uganda’s demand for petroleum products continues to rise steadily. According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, consumption exceeded 6.5 million litres per day in 2023, equivalent to roughly 41,000 barrels daily and representing a 10 percent increase from the previous year.

At present, nearly all of this demand is met through imports, which leaves the country vulnerable to shipping delays, supply shortages, and regional logistics challenges. Uganda’s planned refinery, with a proposed capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, would help meet current and growing demand locally. Although it would not completely shield Uganda from global market pressures, it would reduce dependence on foreign supply chains and provide the country with greater stability during periods of disruption.

Second, having food at home can reduce costs by avoiding constant spending outside the household. Economists describe this as import substitution: replacing imported goods with locally produced alternatives so that less money is spent abroad and more circulates within the domestic economy. Petroleum products remain one of Uganda’s largest imports, costing the country more than USD 2bn in 2023. When fuel is imported, money leaves the economy to pay foreign refiners and suppliers. Refining crude oil locally would allow a significant share of this spending to remain within Uganda through local businesses, workers, suppliers, and government revenues.

Finally, cooking at home keeps more value within the household. Uganda’s case goes even further because the country already has the ‘garden’: its own crude oil reserves. Exporting crude only to import refined products back is like harvesting your own matooke, then paying someone else to cook and sell it back to you. When crude oil is exported and refined products imported, much of the value created along the supply chain is captured elsewhere. This is reflected in the gap between crude oil prices and refined petroleum products sold in Uganda.

For example, if we considered April 2026 crude oil prices, if Uganda’s crude sells at a net-backed price of about USD 100 per barrel, while the combined value of refined products is around USD 200 per barrel, the difference of USD 100 per barrel, represents value added through refining and distribution. A domestic refinery would not capture all of that value, but it would allow Uganda to retain a meaningful share through refining margins, local supply chains, jobs, and tax revenues.

Beyond the refinery itself, this can also stimulate other industries such as petrochemicals, plastics, fertilisers, etc. At the end of the day, a refinery gives Uganda greater control over something as essential as energy. I suppose mothers are usually right: it is always better to have some food at home than to depend entirely on eating out.

Newly elected Amuria District Woman Member of Parliament Margaret “Maggie” Etilu has broken her silence following her release after more than two weeks in detention, thanking supporters, religious leaders and human rights activists who campaigned for her freedom.

Etilu, a member of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party, confirmed her release in a statement posted on her official X account on Thursday evening, bringing an end to days of uncertainty and public concern over her whereabouts.

“I thank all Ugandans, the church, human rights activists, members of parliament, and my electorates for standing with me and praying during my unlawful detention. I am now free, and may God abundantly bless you all,” she wrote.

Her statement sparked relief among family members, supporters and constituents in Amuria District, many of whom had organised prayer gatherings and public appeals calling for her release.

Etilu was reportedly picked up by security operatives on May 23 from the Nakasero residence of former Speaker Anita Annet Among.

Although authorities have not publicly detailed the reasons for her detention, sources have linked the arrest to ongoing security investigations involving some of Among’s political associates.

The legislator’s detention became a subject of heated debate in Parliament after opposition lawmakers demanded answers from the government regarding her whereabouts and the legality of her detention.

During a plenary sitting on June 10 chaired by Speaker Jacob Oboth-Oboth, Leader of the Opposition in Parliament Joel Ssenyonyi questioned why the newly sworn-in legislator had allegedly been held beyond the constitutional 48-hour limit without being produced before a court of law.

Ssenyonyi also pressed the government to account for other individuals reported missing under unclear circumstances, including National Unity Platform (NUP) mobiliser Christopher Godi, commonly known as King Zale, who opposition leaders say was abducted by military personnel in April.

Responding to concerns raised on the floor of Parliament, Vice President Maj (Rtd) Jessica Alupo assured legislators that Etilu was safe and would be released before the end of the week.

Alupo, who referred to Etilu as “my daughter,” said efforts were underway to resolve the matter and appealed for patience as security agencies handled the case.

Several lawmakers drew parallels between Etilu’s case and other recent incidents involving politicians and government critics, arguing that the trend raises concerns about due process and constitutional safeguards.

The government has rejected allegations of unlawful detentions, maintaining that security agencies operate within the law while investigating matters of national security.

Following pressure from legislators, Alupo told Parliament that the Minister for Security was expected to present a comprehensive statement next week addressing concerns surrounding missing persons and ongoing investigations.

Etilu recently entered Parliament after winning the Amuria District Woman MP seat, replacing three-term legislator Susan Amero.

Police in Kisoro District have arrested a 26-year-old man accused of sexually abusing his five-year-old daughter, in a case that has shocked residents and renewed concerns about child protection in the district.

The suspect, identified as Allan Muhumuza, was arrested in Muramba Sub-county following a complaint filed by family members and local leaders.

According to police and relatives, the child had been living with her grandmother and siblings after the separation of her parents about two years ago.

The suspect’s mother, Topista Nyirandezi, said she alerted local leaders after becoming concerned about her son’s behaviour toward his daughters.

She alleged that concerns had previously been raised over his conduct, prompting intervention by community leaders.

The latest incident was reported last week, after which local authorities and residents mobilised to seek assistance for the child and report the matter to police.

Muhumuza was initially reported to have evaded arrest but was later apprehended by officers at a construction site where he worked as a mason.

Burere Village LC1 Chairperson Christopher Tabaro said local leaders had previously received complaints involving the suspect and described him as a habitual troublemaker.

“Muhumuza is a very stubborn person. Even police from Muramba Sub-county fear him. They have to request additional deployment from Kisoro Central Police if they are to arrest him,” Tabaro said.

Gideon Mfitumukiza, the officer in charge of the Children and Family Protection Unit in Kisoro, condemned the alleged offence and urged parents and guardians to prioritise children’s safety and welfare.

He also called on communities to report suspected cases of child abuse promptly to authorities.

Kisoro District Police Commander SP Cosmas Edatu confirmed the arrest and said investigations were nearing completion.

“We have the suspect in custody and the case file is being finalised before being forwarded to court,” Edatu said.

The police commander also disclosed that another suspect is being held in connection with a separate case involving the alleged abuse of a minor in Nyakinama Sub-county.

Authorities said investigations into both cases are ongoing.

The government is arguing that Uganda will not become prosperous by redistributing existing wealth but by creating substantially more of it. Despite decades of respectable economic growth averaging 5 to 6 percent, much of Uganda remains trapped in low-productivity activities. The country still exports largely unprocessed commodities, and manufactured goods account for only about a quarter of exports, according to data from Uganda Bureau of Statistics.

The challenge facing policymakers is, therefore, not merely growing the economy but changing its structure. Development economists from Arthur Lewis onwards have argued that nations become rich when workers move from low-productivity activities into higher-productivity ones. A farmer, for instance, becomes a commercial producer, raw coffee becomes branded exports, minerals become processed products, and informal enterprises become factories. But economists understand that transforming an economy requires more than opening markets.

Mr Mark Mutumba, a trade, economics and tax policy analyst, argues that Uganda deserves credit for increasingly embracing economic and commercial diplomacy as it seeks new markets abroad. However, he cautions that market access alone will not create export success. ‘The challenge is not merely finding customers abroad. It is producing goods competitive enough to survive there. This makes Uganda’s development challenge less about market access and more about production capacity,’ he notes.

The timing

After nearly two decades of anticipation, Uganda expects its first oil in the 2026/27 financial year. The government forecasts economic growth of 10.2 percent afterwards. As a result, the Finance Ministry projects that 2026 economic growth will reach 6.8 percent. That means oil is expected to reshape both public finances and investor sentiment. History offers two paths for resource-rich countries. One path leads to prosperity, where resource revenues finance infrastructure, industrialisation and human capital.

The other leads to dependency, where commodity revenues substitute for reform, weaken institutions and create vulnerability to price shocks. Uganda’s budget suggests policymakers are aware of this risk. The document repeatedly emphasises manufacturing, technology, export diversification and regional integration rather than oil alone.

For Dr Brian Serunjogi, the head of the Microeconomics section at the Eco Analysts welcome government’s focus on oil, manufacturing and exports but warn that debt, corruption and weak institutions could derail the ambitious growth strategy. Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), the bigger question is whether Uganda’s institutions are prepared for the scale of transformation policymakers envision.

‘We need to strengthen government institutions to first of all, reduce corruption. That is how money that is mobilised to finance the budget is going to be used to reach the tenfold growth,’ he notes. He believes the ambition of growing the economy nearly tenfold cannot be achieved through business as usual. ‘Growing the economy tenfold in the next 15 years is going to bring an overhaul of our public institutions, our public sector,’ he says. Oil may provide the resources. But institutions will determine whether those resources become productive assets or just another missed opportunity.

The hard maths

Public debt has climbed to 51 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), breaching the 50 percent threshold the government once pledged to stay below, according to economic data from the Finance Ministry. More striking still is the cost of past borrowing. Debt servicing will absorb about Shs33.4 trillion in the 2026/27 financial year, nearly 40 percent of the national budget, making it the single largest expenditure item.

This means four out of every ten shillings in the national budget will go toward servicing debt before a single road is built, medicine purchased or classroom supplied. The government has, therefore, begun reducing domestic borrowing, which is projected to fall from Shs11.4 trillion to Shs9 trillion in the 2026/27 financial year, amidst a fall in the donor budget support.

Domestic revenues are projected to rise to Shs45.6 trillion in the 2026/27 financial year from an estimated Shs37.23 trillion in 2025/26 financial year, an increase of about Shs2.86 trillion. In effect, Uganda is trying to grow its way out of a narrowing fiscal space. Dr Fred Muhumuza, a development economist, warns that debt service is increasingly consuming resources that would otherwise support public services.

‘As we speak, debt service is over 35 percent.; three times more. Meaning the revenue Uganda revenue Authority is raising is going into debt payment,’ he notes. The consequence, he argues, becomes visible in the quality of services available to citizens. ‘There are not going to be drugs in that hospital. There will be no blood. There will be an ambulance, but possibly no fuel,’ he notes.

Dr Serunjogi sees a related problem, arguing that borrowing itself is not the issue. ‘All countries borrow. Even the most developed countries borrow. The challenge is whether borrowed money is converted into productive assets quickly enough,’ he notes. ‘You borrow money. You have not done feasibility studies. You have not paid the project-affected persons. You have issues with acquiring land to give to the contractor and projects delay,’ he adds.

A vulnerable economy

The Finance Ministry estimates that a one-percentage-point reduction in economic growth would create a revenue shortfall of over Shs400 billion and a 10 percent depreciation of the shilling would widen the deficit by almost Shs1.2 trillion. A simultaneous combination of shocks like commodity volatility, climate shocks, regional instability and higher import costs could widen the fiscal deficit by more than Shs1.5 trillion, according to the Finance Ministry’s own stress tests.

The economy remains vulnerable. But the greatest threat is domestic. The national budget acknowledges procurement delays, weak project execution, low absorption of funds and inefficiencies in public spending. Mr John Walugembe, the executive director of the Federation of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, makes a similar point. ‘Uganda has progressed over the last four decades. Roads, electricity and macroeconomic stability have all improved substantially. But growing budgets have also brought growing responsibilities,’ he adds.

His concern is that the government often allocates resources for wages while underfunding the non-wage requirements that make institutions function effectively.

Investors’ verdict

According to Mr Charles Eibu, an individual investor in Uganda’s capital markets, the country’s challenge is raising revenue without placing excessive pressure on the relatively small formal sector that already bears much of the tax burden. ‘If tax is being increased and squeezing businesses, it is like you are biting the hand that feeds you,’ he argues. Instead, he believes the government should focus on broadening the tax base.

Mr Owen Mugambwa, a trade policy analyst at the Southern and Eastern Africa Trade Information and Negotiations Institute (SEATINI) shares that concern. ‘Few people pay taxes and that is a very big challenge. The percentage of debt repayments keeps increasing. You need to broaden people as much as possible and make sure everyone pays. That’s how you need to finance the tenfold strategy. You can’t do the economy ten times when you don’t have money to finance it. When you have weak institutions and weak budget credibility, it becomes difficult,’ he notes.

Together, all the policy analysts quoted in this article suggest that Uganda’s challenge is no longer identifying what to do. The country broadly knows the sectors it wants to grow, the exports it wants to sell and the industries it wants to build. The harder task is execution. The National Budget is ultimately a wager that Uganda can transform itself from a factor-driven economy into a productivity-driven one. The money has been allocated. The strategy has been articulated.

Police have arrested two suspects in connection with the robbery of more than Shs45 million from officials of a forex bureau in Kampala last month.

The suspects, identified as Yudah Kamoga, also known as “Sparta”, and Arnold Kayabula, a boda boda rider, were arrested on Thursday as investigators intensified efforts to dismantle a suspected robbery ring operating within the Kampala Metropolitan area.

According to Kampala Metropolitan Police deputy spokesperson ASP Luke Owoyesigyire, the robbery occurred on May 6 when the manager of Riverside Forex Bureau and a colleague travelled from Bunga Trading Centre carrying $13,000 to exchange for Uganda shillings.

“After successfully exchanging the money at a forex bureau along Kampala Road, the two were reportedly intercepted by motorcycle-riding assailants in Nsambya and robbed of Shs45,184,600,” Owoyesigyire said.

Investigators later recovered a motorcycle bearing registration number UMA 655GK, whose number plate had allegedly been forged to conceal the identity of the motorcycle used in the robbery.

Police said subsequent investigations led to the arrest of the two suspects and the recovery of another motorcycle, registration number UMA 602KK, believed to have been used during the attack.

“The suspects remain in police custody as investigations continue to establish their specific roles in the robbery and to identify and apprehend other accomplices,” Owoyesigyire said.

He added that police were committed to ensuring that all those involved in the robbery are arrested and brought to justice.

Investigations are ongoing.