The failure of the interim government over the past 18 months has deepened the crisis in Bangladesh’s power and energy sector, leaving the newly installed government to confront immediate and complex challenges. Managing rising electricity demand amid severe fuel supply constraints and limited ?nancial resources will be its ?rst major test.
the irrigation season has begun alongside Ramadan in March, while temperatures are steadily rising. As a result, electricity demand is increasing with each passing day.
the government’s most pressing challenge will be to manage demand from March through October.
this summer may not be as mild as in 2025, with forecasts indicating possible heatwaves across the country in 2026. Power demand could climb to as high as 18,000 MW.
although installed capacity on paper suggests no shortage, the real challenge lies in fuel supply shortages, gas constraints, and foreign currency limitations for importing coal, LNG, and liquid fuels.
under current conditions, the system cannot ensure even 16,500 MW of reliable generation. Gas supply, combining domestic production and imported LNG, stands at about 2,600 MMCFD against demand of 4,000 MMCFD.
there is no quick ?x, and the new government has a daunting task ahead. Past 18 Months in Retrospect The interim government took some positive steps, including scrapping the non-transparent Speedy Supply of Power and Energy (Special Provision) Act and restoring the authority of the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) in determining fuel and electricity prices. However, beyond these measures, it failed to implement meaningful reforms in the power and energy sector.
the sector remains largely controlled by an underperforming bureaucracy, with entrenched interests continuing to hinder progress.
the recent nationwide LPG supply crisis is a clear example of systemic weaknesses.
although the government initially made progress in clearing large outstanding payments to power and fuel suppliers, arrears have since accumulated again.
over the past 18 months, little progress has been made in improving fuel supply. Domestic gas production has declined further, while there has been no meaningful advancement in coal utilization or engagement with international oil companies for onshore and offshore exploration. Key infrastructure projects, including a third ?oating storage and regasi?cation unit (FSRU) and a land-based LNG terminal, have seen frustrating delays. Policy decisions have also had unintended consequences. Changes in the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project have signi?cantly delayed its completion, while the cancellation of Summit Group’s third FSRU project has reduced the prospects of adding 500 MMCFD of regasi?ed LNG supply by 2027.
the government also failed to decide on evacuating gas from Bhola Island to the national grid. Despite repeated discussions on energy transition and renewable development, tangible progress has been minimal. Allegations of corruption in the sector, highlighted in a governmentcommissioned white paper, have not been substantiated through concrete actions. Claims regarding irregularities in the Rooppur project also remain unproven, while policy shifts have strained relations with international partners and disrupted project execution.
additional setbacks, such as the ?re at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport that damaged critical equipment, have further delayed progress. Challenges of the Incumbent Government The new government faces an immediate and demanding situation. Power demand in early March is expected to hover between 15,000 and 15,500 MW, rising to between 16,000 and 18,000 MW from mid-April to midOctober.
under current conditions, the system may face a de?cit of 1,500-2,000 MW on average. While the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has plans in place, success will depend heavily on fuel availability. Petrobangla must ensure a steady gas supply of around 1,200 MMCFD to support 8,500-9,000 MW of gas-based generation during peak demand.
ef?cient plants such as Meghnaghat and Sirajganj should be prioritized, while older facilities at Ashuganj, Ghorashal, and Bibiyana should remain operational for grid stability.
all imported coal-?red plants must operate at full capacity, particularly in the southern and southeastern regions, ensuring a base load of 14,000-15,000 MW. During peak periods, around 3,000 MW from liquid fuel-based plants should be available. Power imports could contribute 2,000-2,500 MW.
the timely commissioning of the ?rst unit of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant would have signi?cantly eased pressure on the system. However, real-world operations are unlikely to be smooth. Mechanical faults, fuel supply disruptions, and ?nancial constraints will complicate system management. Load-shedding and demand-side management measures, including conservation and ef?cient use of electricity, will be necessary.
although Ramadan will end before peak summer, efforts to reduce non-essential consumption, such as excessive lighting, should continue. Recommendation Given the importance of the sector, the government should appoint a senior full-time minister for power and energy, supported by two state ministers.
this would allow for more focused and effective decision-making.
a comprehensive contingency plan is essential.
the government should prioritize commissioning the ?rst unit of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (1,200 MW) by June 2026 and the second unit by March 2027.
at the same time, incentives should be introduced to ensure at least 2,000 MW of rooftop solar capacity by the end of 2026. Domestic gas exploration must be accelerated.
the BAPEX 50-well project should be completed by 2026, with plans to expand to 100 wells by 2028.
the stalled third FSRU project should be reviewed and, if feasible, revived.
extensive 2D and 3D seismic surveys should be conducted across the country to identify new resources, followed by sustained exploration efforts involving both BAPEX and international companies.
updated production-sharing contracts (PSCs) for onshore and offshore exploration must be approved, with new bidding rounds launched by mid-2026. The government should also fast-track the construction of the Bhola-Barishal- Khulna gas transmission pipeline.
the draft Integrated Gas and Power System Master Plan should be re?ned with expert input to better re?ect Bangladesh’s needs and implemented accordingly. While pursuing renewable energy, Bangladesh should adopt a pragmatic approach to energy transition, focusing on energy security and affordability.
expanding electric vehicle adoption could help reduce dependence on imported fuels.
ultimately, achieving sustainable energy security-ensuring reliable and affordable power for all-must be the central objective.
the sector must operate with transparency, accountability, and professional management, free from undue in?uence. BERC should function independently as the primary regulatory authority, ensuring compliance with policies and regulations.
the government should present clear short, medium-, and long-term plans for the power and energy sector within its ?rst 180 days. Finally, Bangladesh must reconsider the development of its domestic coal resources using modern, environmentally responsible technologies, as leaving these resources untapped is increasingly dif?cult to justify in the face of a growing energy crisis