Bangladesh’s energy challenge is no longer a distant policy concern. It is now a daily reality. From factories struggling to stay open to power plants running below capacity, the strain of gas shortages is being felt across the economy. Behind this lies a deeper structural issue: the country’s growing inability to secure a stable and affordable supply of natural gas, the very fuel that underpins its industrial growth and energy system.
the government’s foremost concern in achieving sustainable energy security is ensuring a smooth and reliable supply of primary fuel, particularly natural gas.
according to Petrobangla, current demand stands at around 4,000 MMCFD, while supply is limited to approximately 2,600 MMCFD, including about 900 MMCFD of imported regasi?ed LNG (RLNG). Domestic gas production has declined to around 1,700 MMCFD and continues to fall steadily.
the Bibiyana gas ?eld, operated by Chevron, alone contributes nearly 950 MMCFD, but it too is gradually depleting. Bangladesh cannot afford to remain heavily dependent on a single ?eld inde?nitely.
at the current rate of depletion, the country’s proven gas reserves could be exhausted by 2031.
in response, Petrobangla has undertaken two major drilling initiatives-the 50-well and 100-well programs. While these have yielded some incremental gains, the results have not been transformative. Meanwhile, two ?oating storage and regasi?cation units (FSRUs) at Maheshkhali supply between 900 and 950 MMCFD of RLNG. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and con?icts in the Middle East have disrupted LNG supply chains and driven prices to record highs, limiting Bangladesh’s ability to rely on the spot market.
the consequences of gas shortages are already severe. Nearly 5,000 MW of gas-based power generation capacity remains idle due to inadequate fuel supply. Most fertilizer factories havebeen forced to suspend operations, affecting agricultural productivity. Many gas-dependent industries have shut down entirely, while others are struggling to survive under mounting operational costs.
this has created a ripple effect across the economy, impacting employment, exports, and overall industrial output. From both technical and economic perspectives, natural gas-both domestic and imported-will remain the dominant fuel in Bangladesh’s energy mix until at least 2040. Despite growing interest in renewable energy and clean technologies, Bangladesh cannot rapidly scale up these alternatives due to infrastructure limitations, high costs, and grid integration challenges. Natural gas, therefore, must continue to serve as the country’s primary transition fuel. This makes it imperative to develop and implement a comprehensive and realistic roadmap for gas exploration, production, and supply chain development.
it is important to recognize that Bangladesh is neither exceptionally rich in hydrocarbons nor entirely depleted of resources. Signi?cant untapped potential remains both onshore and offshore. However, unlocking this potential requires disciplined, technology-driven execution of welldesigned exploration programs. Unfortunately, successive governments have not prioritized systematic reservoir studies or updated assessments of resource potential.
although institutions such as the US Geological Survey (USGS), the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, and international service companies have conducted studies in the past, follow-up actions have been limited and fragmented.
one of the most glaring examples of underutilized resources is the gas reserve in Bhola. Despite having proven reserves, the lack of pipeline infrastructure has prevented this gas from being integrated into the national grid. Similarly, exploration in the Chattogram Hill Tracts – particularly in promising structures such as Patiya, Jaldi, Sitapahar, and Kashalong – has been delayed due to policy indecision and geopolitical sensitivities.
offshore exploration, which holds signi?cant long-term potential, has remained largely stagnant for over a decade.
the government must now take decisive action by launching an aggressive but professionally managed and integrated exploration campaign. Petrobangla and BAPEX already possess extensive seismic data collected over decades.
this data should be consolidated into a comprehensive national database, with support from accredited international experts if necessary.
at the same time, updated reservoir assessments must be conducted to provide a clearer picture of existing reserves and future potential. Modern seismic technologies have advanced signi?cantly in recent years. Bangladesh must undertake comprehensive 2D and 3D seismic surveys across its entire landmass to identify new gas-bearing structures. Given the geological characteristics of the Bengal Delta, the world’s largest riverine delta, it is highly unlikely that the country has exhausted its gas potential.
a systematic and scienti?cally driven exploration approach could yield substantial discoveries.
a well-integrated exploration roadmap is essential. BAPEX must be strengthened through the recruitment of skilled professionals, improved training, and access to modern technology. Financial resources, including the Gas Development Fund, should be fully allocated to support upstream activities.
at the same time, joint ventures between BAPEX and international exploration companies should be actively encouraged, particularly in high-potential regions such as the Chattogram Hill Tracts.
immediate priority should be given to exploration in Chhatak and Tengratila, where there is strong potential for increasing reserves and discovering new resources. However, operations in these areas must be conducted with utmost care to avoid technical or environmental risks.
infrastructure development is equally critical.
the proposed Bhola-Barishal- Khulna pipeline project must be implemented without delay.
this pipeline would enable the evacuation of gas from Bhola to the national grid, unlocking signi?cant economic opportunities in southern Bangladesh.
the project would also support industrial development in the Khulna-Jashore region and provide a reliable energy supply for emerging economic zones.
on the policy front, ?nalizing updated Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) for both onshore and offshore exploration is essential.
the revised PSC framework includes competitive pricing mechanisms linked to Brent crude, along with provisions for cost recovery, pro?t sharing, and pipeline investment returns. However, attracting international oil companies (IOCs) will require more than competitive terms.
the government must ensure transparency, policy consistency, and a stable regulatory environment.
a dedicated team of technical, ?nancial, and legal experts should be formed to negotiate effectively with potential investors.
it is also important to acknowledge the limitations of BAPEX. While the organization has a crucial role to play, it does not currently have the capacity to address the scale of the crisis on its own. Strategic partnerships with experienced international companies are essential to accelerate exploration and production.
at the same time, BAPEX should be supported in building its capabilities through technology transfer and joint operations.
if Bangladesh can mobilize around 10 exploration rigs, operated by both BAPEX and international partners, by 2027, there is a realistic possibility of discovering between 3 and 5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of new gas reserves by 2030. While offshore exploration may take longer to yield results, it remains a critical component of the country’s long-term energy strategy.
in parallel, the government must strengthen LNG infrastructure to ensure supply security. Delays in projects such as additional FSRUs and landbased LNG terminals have exacerbated the current crisis.
these initiatives should be revisited and expedited. The development of a land-based LNG terminal at Matarbari and the installation of additional FSRUs should be treated as national priorities.
the concept of strategic LNG storage should also be explored.
as seen in Europe and North America, LNG can be stored in cryogenic form for extended periods, providing a buffer against market volatility.
establishing such facilities in Bangladesh would enhance the country’s ability to manage supply disruptions and price ?uctuations. While renewable energy development must continue, it is important to adopt a realistic approach.
technical limitations, grid constraints, and cost factors will limit the rapid expansion of renewable energy in the short to medium term. Therefore, natural gas will remain central to Bangladesh’s energy system for the foreseeable future. Conclusion The path to sustainable energy security requires a clear set of priorities and decisive action.
the government must immediately initiate exploration at Chhatak and Tengratila and fast-track the Bhola-Barishal-Khulna pipeline project.
updated PSCs should be approved without delay, and bidding rounds must be launched by June 2026.
at the same time, LNG infrastructure projects-including additional FSRUs and land-based terminals-must be accelerated. Bangladesh should also diversify its LNG import sources beyond the Middle East to reduce supply risks.
ultimately, a balanced strategy that combines domestic resource development, LNG expansion, institutional strengthening, and gradual adoption of renewable energy will be essential. With disciplined execution and strong political commitment, Bangladesh can navigate its current energy challenges and build a more secure and resilient energy future.