Category: Energy and Power

Bangladesh is facing an acute and persistent gas supply crisis, marked by declining domestic natural gas production and increasing dependence on imported LNG.

The country has therefore taken the right direction by signifi cantly expanding its drilling programme-from an initial plan of around 100 wells to a broader target of up to 150 wells by 2031, including new drilling and workover activities.

The next, and more important, challenge is to prioritize these wells effectively so that Bangladesh can maximize additional gas production in the shortest possible time and maximize the economic benefi t.

Bangladesh does not simply need drilling-but smarter, better-targeted drilling.

During a gas crisis, the priority should be wells that can add reserves quickly, have a high probability of success, and can be brought into production rapidly.

Prioritizing the Right Wells The number of wells drilled should not be the main measure of exploration success.

A large drilling programme may produce only a small increase in gas reserves and production if the wells are not selected carefully.

Bangladesh should therefore adopt a two-horizon exploration strategy, addressing the immediate gas shortage while simultaneously preparing for the country’s long-term energy needs.

Horizon 1-Immediate Gas: This represents the crisis period, during which the immediate objective should be to add gas reserves and production as quickly as possible and bring the supply situation to a more manageable level.

This phase may extend for around one year, depending on drilling success and the time required to bring newly developed gas into production.

Horizon 2-Future Gas: This represents sustained longterm development, focusing on maintaining production, replacing depleted reserves, discovering and developing new resources, and ensuring a stable and sustainable gas supply for the future.

By pursuing both horizons simultaneously, Bangladesh can address the immediate gas shortage without compromising the exploration and reserve replacement needed to secure the country’s future gas supply.

During the current crisis, however, the key question should be: Which wells can provide the most additional gas, have the best chance of success, and bring gas into production in the shortest possible time? In response, we propose a threecategory system-A, B, and C-for prioritizing wells.

The categories would consider three basic factors: how much gas a well could produce, how likely it is to succeed, and how quickly the gas could reach consumers.

This would help Bangladesh move away from simply counting how many wells are drilled and instead focus on how much useful gas is actually added and how quickly it can help reduce the gas shortage.

Category A: Immediate-Priority Wells As an initial guideline, Category A could include opportunities with substantial recoverable gas potential-around 50 Bcf or more-combined with a high probability of success and a short time to production.

The cutoff value is not rigid, but an indicative threshold.

A smaller prospect could also receive priority if it can be brought into production very quickly or has strong economic value.

Thus, the highest priority Category A wells are to be drilled as soon as possible.

Category A should not be limited to existing fi elds or development wells; a new exploration well can also be a Category A well if available geological information indicates a high chance of success and signifi cant gas potential.

The main purpose of Category A is to add reserves quickly and increase gas production as soon as possible.

Existing fi elds and already discovered gas resources are particularly attractive because they usually have less geological uncertainty and may already have pipelines, processing facilities, and other infrastructure.

Appraisal wells, near-fi eld wells, and infi ll wells can also bring gas into production faster than many frontier exploration projects.

The selected Category A wells should then be ranked using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), as this helps decision-makers compare the possible benefi ts of a successful well with the fi nancial risk of drilling an unsuccessful one.

Before fi nal selection, these should be evaluated using subsurface uncertainty and decision-tree analysis to reduce drilling risks.

These tools cannot guarantee drilling success, but can help identify key uncertainties, assess possible outcomes, and select wells with a better balance between gas potential and risk.

Category A wells should therefore receive the highest priority for drilling rigs, technical resources, and management attention.

Category B: Selective and Risk-Adjusted Wells Category B would include wells with moderate uncertainty and potentially signifi cant gas potential, for secondphase consideration.

These may include development, in-fi eld, appraisal, or exploration wells where the probability of success is lower than Category A, but the potential gas addition remains attractive.

These wells may undergo further technical and economic evaluation before drilling if new data or information are available.

The assessment should consider probability of geological success, expected recoverable gas, reservoir uncertainty, structural and fault-seal uncertainty, infrastructure requirements, expected Monetary Value (EMV), Net Present Value (NPV), and sensitivity analysis.

As additional seismic interpretation, seismic reprocessing, geological studies, or other technical work signifi cantly reduce uncertainty, they should be completed before drilling.

This helps avoid two extremes: drilling every prospect immediately without suffi cient evaluation, or postponing potentially valuable opportunities indefi nitely.

Development of Category B wells should therefore be the second priority after the most promising Category A opportunities are exhausted.

Figure 1 illustrates how the proposed three-category system can be used to prioritize wells and enhance gas production.

The system emphasizes continuous evaluation, reshuffl ing, and reprioritization of wells, allowing attractive opportunities to move to a higher priority when new information improves their technical or economic assessment.

This approach aims to maximize additional gas production while ensuring that drilling resources are directed toward the most promising opportunities.

Category C: Frontier and High-Risk Opportunities Category C should consist mainly of frontier, high-risk, marginal, or low-confi dence prospects.

Although they get lower priority during the initial crisis period, selected Category C activities should continue in parallel throughout all phases as part of Horizon 2-Future Gas.

Thus, Bangladesh can continue building a pipeline of future exploration opportunities while addressing the immediate gas shortage.

During an acute supply crisis, Category C wells, however, should not consume the majority of the country’s limited drilling capacity and fi nancial resources.

They should be pursued selectively, if additional geological and geophysical studies signifi cantly improve their success probability.

Frontier exploration is essential for Bangladesh’s long-term energy security because the country cannot depend indefi nitely on its existing gas fi elds.

Category C wells may have lower immediate drilling priority, but the underlying geological study work should continue effectively.

Therefore, frontier exploration activities should not be halted during this crisis time.

A strategy focused only on immediate gas production, helping address today’s shortage, could create a more serious supply problem in the future.

Seismic surveys, basin analysis, geological and geophysical studies, and frontier exploration planning should continue in parallel, even while drilling resources are prioritized for higher-probability wells.

Following detailed technical evaluation, if a frontier prospect is found to have suffi cient geological potential, commercial viability, and an acceptable risk level, it can be reclassifi ed and moved to Category A or Category B for accelerated drilling.

The overall strategy thus is simple: produce more gas today while continuously preparing for the gas of tomorrow.

Quantitative Framework for Well Categorization and Prioritization Completing the technical and commercial evaluation of individual exploration prospects, companies commonly use a quantitative ranking framework to identify the most attractive investment opportunities and prioritize those with the greatest potential for near-term results.

Quantitative prospect ranking is critically important for top management when making exploration drilling decisions.

By prioritizing investment in the most prospective drilling opportunities, a company can: Minimize the risk of drilling failure, Prioritise the most attractive wells Maximize fi nancial returns, Achieve faster recovery of invested capital, Generate profi ts that can be reinvested into future exploration and development activities, Support long-term growth, and Improve the overall success and sustainability of the company For example, consider fi ve hypothetical exploration or drilling prospects-Wells A, B, C, D, and E-that can be grouped into Category A, Category B, or Category C based on their potential, risk, and economic attractiveness.

The COS for each prospect is estimated by geoscientists, while recoverable reserves are estimated by reservoir engineers.

Drilling costs are estimated by drilling engineers.

Based on these technical inputs, a risk-based economic evaluation can be performed using parameters such as Net Present Value (NPV), Expected Monetary Value (EMV), and Cost-Benefi t Ratio.

Assumptions for Economic Evaluation Parameter Value Gas Price USD 2 per MCF Value of 1 BCF Gas USD 2 Million Drilling Cost per Well USD 25 Million Development/OPEX Ignored for simplifi cation Discounting Simplifi ed screeninglevel NPV Recoverable Reserve Unit BCF Table 1 shows how companies compare different drilling opportunities based on risk and potential profi t, while Table 2 ranks the projects using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), which combines potential profi t with the probability of success.

However, fi nal drilling decisions may also consider practical factors such as access to gas pipelines and other strategic importance.

**EMV provides a risk-adjusted basis for prioritizing exploration wells by considering both the potential economic value and the probability of success.

Well E ranks highest based on Expected Monetary Value (EMV) because it combines a relatively high Chance of Success (40%) with reserve potential (47 BCF).

Although Well D contains the largest estimated reserve volume, its relatively low COS signifi cantly reduces its overall riskadjusted economic value.

Again, though, C has strong economic potential but ranked below E due to its lower 15% COS.

Well A ranks the lowest- a negative EMV or NPV does not mean a prospect should be permanently rejected.

It may simply be uneconomic under current conditions but become attractive later if gas prices rise, costs fall, or uncertainty decreases.

Such prospects should be retained and periodically re-evaluated.

The above example demonstrates how quantitative prospect ranking supports decision-making by integrating all uncertainties into a single evaluation framework and helping identify the best option among multiple opportunities.

From Resources to Production: Managing the Petroleum Value Chain Prioritizing wells addresses the immediate drilling decision, but longterm gas security requires management of the entire petroleum value chain-from identifying resources to converting them into reserves and ultimately production.

Continued exploration is essential to identify new gas resources, but resources alone cannot meet demand.

They must fi rst be converted into reserves and then developed and brought into production.

This requires a systematic approach that continuously identifi es the most promising opportunities, manages geological and commercial uncertainties, and effi ciently converts resources into reserves and, ultimately, reliable gas production.

For simplicity, the progression of the entire petroleum value chain can be viewed as Leads to Resources to Reserves to Production, as shown in Figure -2, where: Leads / Prospects: Potential gas opportunities that need to be studied and evaluated.

Resource: gas that is believed to exist in the subsurface and may be technically recoverable.

Reserve: gas that is proved to be recoverable under current technical, economic, and operating conditions.

Production: gas that is actually produced and delivered to consumers The objective, therefore, is not simply to increase the resource base, but to create a continuous and effi cient pathway from resources to reserves and ultimately to production.

To support this objective, petroleum companies and policymakers need a simple way to monitor where the main bottlenecks occur.

Three complementary indicators can provide such a management framework: Resource Growth Rate (RGR): indicates whether the recoverable resource base is growing.

Resource-to-Reserve Ratio (R2R): indicates how effectively identifi ed recoverable resources are being converted into reserves.

Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR): indicates whether newly added reserves are suffi cient to replace the gas being produced.

Together, these indicators provide a broader picture of the health of the petroleum value chain.

RGR focuses on the future resource base, R2R on the conversion of resources into reserves, and RRR on maintaining reserves as production continues.

They can therefore help management identify where attention and investment are most needed.

These indicators should not, however, be treated as stand-alone measures of exploration or business performance.

A high RGR, for example, may refl ect substantial new resources without demonstrating that they can be economically developed.

Similarly, a strong RRR does not necessarily mean that production is increasing.

The indicators are most useful when combined with geological, technical, commercial, and operational information to support investment decisions.

For a national oil and gas company, RRR could be considered alongside production performance as a simple and useful management indicator.

With clear defi nitions, transparent reporting, and proper verifi cation, these indicators could also be linked to management performance and incentive systems.

If incentives are based only on adding reserves, the company may focus on increasing reserves without ensuring that those reserves are actually developed and brought into production.

Including production performance as an incentive can encourage the entire company to work together to improve production and remove bottlenecks within the petroleum value chain.

This balanced approach would encourage both higher production today and adequate reserve replacement for the future.

This integrated approach helps decision-makers compare opportunities consistently and direct limited fi nancial and technical resources toward projects where most needed.

Managing the Petroleum Value ChainReserve and Reservoir Management System In this framework, Resource Growth Rate (RGR), Resource-to-Reserve Ratio (R2R), and Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) should be monitored together as the three initial key management indicators.

Many major oil and gas companies regularly calculate R2R and RRR and report these indicators in their internal annual reports.

For sustainable production, the aim should be to maintain an RRR of 100% or higher over time.

A sustained RRR below 100% means that reserves are being produced faster than they are being replaced, gradually reducing the reserve inventory.

RRR therefore provides an important indication of whether today’s production is being adequately replaced by new reserves to support tomorrow’s production.

At present, maintaining an RRR above 100% can be challenging, even for large international and national oil and gas companies.

Reserve replacement can vary signifi cantly from year to year because of exploration results, production levels, reserve revisions, and the timing of major projects.

For example, reported reserve-replacement performance among selected major companies illustrates this variability: bp: According to bp’s 2025 reporting, the company recorded an organic proved reserve replacement ratio of 90% (SandP Global).

Chevron: According to Chevron Corporation’s 2025 Fourth-Quarter Results (January 30, 2026), Chevron reported a reserve replacement ratio (RRR) of 158% in 2025.

This indicates that the company added proved reserves equivalent to 158% of the reserves it produced during the year.

PETRONAS: According to the PETRONAS Integrated Report 2023, PETRONAS reported a three-year average 1P Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) of 1.6 (160%) as of 1 January 2024.

This indicates that, on a three-year average basis, PETRONAS replaced more than 100% of its 1P reserves produced during the period.

These examples demonstrate that RRR is an important indicator of a company’s ability to replace the reserves it produces, but it can vary considerably from year to year.

It should therefore be viewed primarily as a long-term management indicator rather than a one-year performance score.

RRR should also be considered alongside other indicators, such as Reserve Growth Rate (RGR) and Resources-to-Reserves (R2R) conversion, to provide a more complete picture of the health and sustainability of the petroleum resource base.

For Petrobangla, RRR values do not appear to be reported in publicly available documents.

Regular monitoring of RRR, RGR, and R2R could help identify where bottlenecks exist across the petroleum value chain.

This would help management determine whether the main challenge is fi nding new resources, converting resources into reserves, or bringing reserves into production.

Once the bottleneck is identifi ed, fi nancial, technical, and human resources can be directed to the area where they are likely to have the greatest impact.

Conclusion Bangladesh’s gas crisis is urgent, and accelerating drilling is a timely step.

However, drilling more wells alone is not a cost-effective solution; the focus must be on selecting the right wells and bringing gas to production quickly, based on a two-horizon strategy.

Horizon 1 (Immediate Gas) should prioritize Category A and selected Category B wells with high potential for rapid conversion into production.

Simultaneously, future Gas should continue in parallel through Category C prospects, seismic programmes, basin studies, reprocessing and reinterpretation of existing data, and frontier exploration.

Horizon 2 should not be a separate or isolated programme.

When new studies identify a high-confi dence and commercially attractive prospect, it should be reassessed and, where justifi ed, recategorized for accelerated drilling.

This approach ensures both immediate gas supply and long-term resource development.

If implemented effectively, the drilling programme will become a tool for converting petroleum potential into production and reducing dependence on imported LNG.

The government plans to drill 300 gas wells in two phases and set up three new LNG terminals to strengthen Bangladesh’s energy supply, Prime Minister’s Offi ce spokesperson Mahdi Amin said recently.

Speaking at a special press conference at PMO, Mahdi, also the Prime Minister’s Adviser, said work had already begun on a mediumterm program to drill 150 wells across the country to address the gas crisis.

Another 150 wells would be drilled in the next phase, he said.

The government also plans to add three LNG terminals to the two existing facilities, with efforts under way to make the third terminal operational before 2028, Mahdi said.

It is also expanding the Eastern Refi nery in Chattogram, for which around $1 billion in international fi nancing has been secured, he added.

Referring to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s recent meeting with business and industrial leaders, he said the government had assured them of measures to improve gas supply

Bangladesh’s latest fuel price hike is likely to fuel infl ation, reduce real household purchasing power and weaken consumption, particularly among price-sensitive households, according to BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

The government raised the prices of diesel, kerosene, petrol and octane by Tk20 per liter from September 21.

Diesel, widely used in freight transport, public transportation and irrigation, saw the largest percentage increase at 17.4%.

In a special brief, BRAC EPL said higher fuel costs would initially raise transport, irrigation and distribution expenses, with secondround effects likely to spread to food, services and wage expectations.

Higher logistics and input costs could also squeeze corporate margins, production and capacity utilization.

The brokerage said the adjustment could, however, reduce Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation’s losses and government fi nancing needs.

Lawmakers, fi sheries experts and environmental activists have called for reducing dependence on fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy to protect fi sheries, aquatic biodiversity and coastal livelihoods.

The call came at a discussion titled ‘Renewables Now to Protect Fisheries’ at the National Press Club in Dhaka, organized under the Renewables Now campaign by Dhoritri Rokhhay Amra (DHORA), Dream Research and Development Foundation (DRDF), Sundarban and Coastal Protection Movement and 34 other organizations.

Speakers said ash, heated water and pollutants from coal-fi red power plants can affect river water quality, dissolved oxygen and fi sh survival.

They urged environmental impact assessments of fossil-fuel-based power plants in and around fi sh sanctuaries and breeding grounds, along with a planned transition to solar and other renewable technologies.

Engineer Md Ashraf Uddin Bokul, chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on the Ministry of Defence, said duty and VAT exemptions had been provided for renewable energy equipment as part of efforts to meet at least 20% of electricity demand from renewables by 2030.

Global sustainability efforts are expected to maintain momentum despite geopolitical uncertainty, with commercial and technological drivers increasingly shaping the pace of climate action, according to the World Economic Forum’s inaugural Chief Sustainability Offi cers Outlook.

The survey found that 63% of chief sustainability offi cers (CSOs) expect global sustainability progress to remain steady or accelerate over the next 12 months.

However, 78% expect geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures, including confl ict, policy uncertainty and weaker multilateral cooperation, to weigh on progress.

Artifi cial intelligence is emerging as both an opportunity and a challenge.

About 73% of CSOs expect AI to accelerate sustainability efforts, particularly through improved measurement, effi ciency and risk analysis.

India has approved Nepal’s import of up to 654 MW of electricity for 18 hours a day through the end of December, but approvals for several Nepalese hydropower projects to export electricity remain pending, leaving power supplies to Bangladesh uncertain.

India’s Ministry of Power approved supplies from Sept.

13 to Dec.31, with up to 600 MW through the Muzaffarpur-Dhalkebar line and 54 MW through the Tanakpur-Mahendranagar line.

The allocation for January 2027 will be reviewed in December.

Nepal is currently exporting around 600 MW a day to India, but export permits for the 38.8-MW Upper Chameliya, 24.25-MW Seti River and 10.7-MW Upper Tadi Khola projects have expired and have not yet been renewed.

Flood damage has also reduced Nepal’s available generation capacity.

Electricity exports to Bangladesh have been suspended after fl oods damaged the Trishuli and Chilime hydropower projects that supplied the 40-MW bilateral arrangement.

Adverse weather in the Bay of Bengal disrupted the transfer of imported LNG to fl oating terminals at Maheshkhali, causing Bangladesh’s gas supply to fall sharply recently.

Petrobangla said total gas supply fell to around 2,301 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD), comprising 1,615 MMCFD from domestic fi elds and 686 MMCFD of regasifi ed LNG (RLNG), compared with 2,610 MMCFD on September 15.

The disruption occurred as rough weather hampered LNG transfer from a carrier to the fl oating storage and regasifi cation units (FSRUs) offshore Maheshkhali.

The two terminals have a combined regasifi cation capacity of about 1,100 MMCFD and supply more than one-third of Bangladesh’s gas.

Petrobangla said the supply situation would return to normal once weather conditions improved.

Bangladesh needs a stable, long-term plan for gas exploration and fi eld development to increase domestic supply and reduce its growing dependence on imported LNG.

The country should not rely solely on natural gas for energy security; it should also expand renewable energy and ensure the effective use of domestic coal for power generation.

In the short term, production from existing gas fi elds should be increased through technical interventions, while gas from Bhola should be brought into the national grid as quickly as possible.

Janifar Hakim Lupin, Assistant Professor of Geology at the University of Dhaka, made the observations in an interview with Energy and Power Editor Mollah Amzad Hossain.

Bangladesh’s domestic gas reserves are depleting rapidly while dependence on imported LNG is increasing.

It is often said that the country still has signifi cant potential for discovering new gas.

Yet, despite drilling around 30 development and exploration wells over the past four years, there has been no major discovery.

Are we on the right track? The present gas crisis is the result of years of inadequate planning and insuffi cient investment in infrastructure.

The gap between demand and domestic supply has continued to widen.

To overcome the crisis, we must discover new gas and increase production through development wells.

However, failure to discover gas from an exploration well should not automatically be considered a failure of the exploration program.

There is simply no alternative to exploration if we want to discover new resources.

Even a dry well generates valuable geological and technical information that can improve future exploration.

We should not judge exploration success simply by the number of wells drilled.

The key question is whether we are using available geological and seismic data properly to identify the most promising drilling locations.

Even then, no exploration program can guarantee success.

Therefore, Bangladesh must continue exploration and development drilling as part of a sustained strategy rather than treating exploration as an emergency response to a gas shortage.

Around 300 million cubic feet per day of additional gas has reportedly been added from about 30 wells, much of it from Bhola.

While Chevron can produce 50-60 MMCFD from a single well, national companies often produce only around 10 MMCFD.

Is this primarily a technological gap or a planning problem? I believe both factors are involved.

Two-dimensional seismic surveys have already been conducted over most of the prospective structures onshore.

Before drilling new wells, these data need to be reinterpreted using modern techniques.

At the same time, three-dimensional seismic surveys should be carried out in priority areas.

Bangladesh is a deltaic geological environment where changes in sedimentation can signifi cantly alter hydrocarbon prospects.

Therefore, all available geological and seismic information must be thoroughly analyzed before fi nalizing drilling locations.

There are shortcomings both in planning and implementation.

At the same time, there is no doubt that our national companies lag behind international companies such as Chevron in the use of modern exploration and production technologies.

Our national companies should therefore work with international oil companies and other technology partners.

Such cooperation could signifi cantly improve exploration and production outcomes.

A 50+100-well drilling program is currently under way, with around 70 exploration wells.

Petrobangla says the program will be completed by 2030.

How effectively is the program being implemented, and how optimistic are you about its success as a geologist? Exploration and development should be planned over a 10- or 20-year horizon.

Exploration, development drilling and workovers must be integrated into a single program.

Hydrocarbon exploration cannot be judged simply by the number of wells drilled.

Targets cannot be achieved through planning and political commitment alone.

Political stability, adequate fi nancing, skilled manpower and access to modern technology are all essential.

Given the current condition of domestic gas production, exploration, development drilling and workovers must be pursued simultaneously.

Production from some of Bangladesh’s major gas fi elds is declining steadily.

Development wells and workovers are therefore essential to sustain production.

Where necessary, fi eld compression should also be installed to maintain output.

Instead of taking action only when a crisis emerges, Bangladesh needs a stable, long-term exploration and development strategy.

That is the only way to sustain existing production while adding new reserves.

The government has said that another 150well drilling program will be undertaken after the existing 150-well program.

How do you assess this plan? What should be considered when selecting locations for new exploration wells? The proposed program appears to focus largely on onshore areas, but we need a comprehensive strategy covering both onshore and offshore prospects.

We already have a good understanding of the hydrocarbon potential of Sylhet and surrounding areas.

But exploration planning should also consider areas such as the Hatiya Trough and the northwestern region.

I am encouraged by the scale of the proposed program, but the results will depend on how the locations are selected and how the program is implemented.

Areas where only 2D seismic data are available should undergo 3D seismic surveys before drilling.

We should also drill new wells in unexplored parts of known gas-bearing structures and investigate whether additional hydrocarbon-bearing zones exist in producing fi elds.

These approaches could potentially deliver gas at relatively low cost.

Deeper structures also deserve greater attention.

So far, our exploration has focused largely on conventional structures.

Future exploration should also consider stratigraphic plays.

The data from dry wells should be carefully reassessed before fi nalizing new drilling plans.

A dry well is not simply a failure; it can provide valuable information about the geological system.

Chevron has expressed interest in returning to some of the blocks it previously relinquished under the PSC.

The government also appears positive about the proposal.

Should Chevron be given an opportunity to invest through negotiations? If a company wants to return to a relinquished block on a sole-source basis, its entire proposal must be carefully evaluated.

We need to examine the terms, the exploration program and, particularly, how the benefi ts would be shared if gas is discovered.

The government must assess how much the country would gain from such an arrangement.

However, rather than relying on a single company, bringing in several international oil companies and creating a competitive environment could be more benefi cial for Bangladesh.

Bids have been invited for oil and gas exploration in 26 offshore blocks, including 11 shallow-water blocks, with November 30 set as the submission deadline.

Two companies have already purchased bidding documents, while several others reportedly expressed interest at the London roadshow.

How optimistic are you about attracting investment and achieving offshore exploration success? Bangladesh has an offshore area roughly comparable in size to its onshore area.

Unfortunately, we have not yet achieved any major success offshore.

In contrast, neighboring India and Myanmar have made signifi cant discoveries.

Considering their experience, the Bay of Bengal is potentially one of the most promising areas for addressing Bangladesh’s gas shortage.

We need extensive exploration there.

The government’s recent initiatives and the London roadshow appear to have generated interest among investors.

But offshore exploration requires much greater investment and involves signifi cantly higher risks than onshore operations.

Therefore, it would be premature to assume investment will materialize until companies actually submit bids and commit capital.

Bangladesh also has responsibilities in attracting investment.

First, we must properly present the geological and seismic data available for the 26 blocks.

In my view, the deepwater blocks may offer greater potential than the shallow-water areas, but very little exploration has been undertaken there so far.

We must also understand that offshore exploration takes time.

Even after investment is secured, exploration, discovery, fi eld development and the construction of pipelines to bring gas into the national grid can take many years.

The new offshore PSC is attractive because it clearly defi nes the rights, obligations and potential returns of both the government and international oil companies.

I am therefore hopeful that foreign companies will participate.

Ultimately, however, the success of the bidding round will depend heavily on how effectively Bangladesh can present its geological information and exploration potential to investors.

A draft PSC for onshore exploration, including the Chattogram Hill Tracts, has reportedly been fi nalized and bidding may be invited soon.

How do you view the initiative? We have a relatively good understanding of the geology and hydrocarbon potential of eastern and central Bangladesh.

The geological structures of the Chattogram Hill Tracts, however, are considerably more complex.

This region has received limited attention for a long time.

But discoveries and exploration activities across the border in India have increased the prospectivity of the area from Bangladesh’s perspective.

Some earlier, limited exploration activities in the region also produced positive indications.

I believe there may be unconventional hydrocarbon opportunities in the Chattogram Hill Tracts.

If hydrocarbons can be discovered through systematic exploration, the region could potentially become a new source of energy supply for Bangladesh.

Before restarting exploration there, industry-academic collaboration could be useful.

At the same time, attracting foreign investment under the proposed onshore PSC would also be a positive development.

What urgent measures are needed to increase domestic gas production and make new discoveries? Bangladesh needs both short- and longterm strategies to address the current gas crisis.

In the short term, production from existing fi elds should be increased, gas discovered in Bhola should be connected to the national grid as quickly as possible, and fi elds that are currently shut down should be reassessed and brought back into production wherever economically and technically feasible.

Gas losses and wastage must also be reduced and the available gas used more effi ciently.

In the longer term, Bangladesh needs effective exploration and development programs covering the Bay of Bengal, the Chattogram Hill Tracts and other prospective onshore areas.

This requires a stable, long-term strategy implemented by a technically competent team with clear accountability.

At the same time, energy security cannot be built around gas alone.

Bangladesh needs an integrated energy strategy that accelerates renewable energy while also making appropriate use of domestic coal for power generation.

Only through such a diversifi ed and coordinated approach can Bangladesh strengthen its energy security and reduce its vulnerability to imported fuel.

The present government is confronting what could be Bangladesh’s most severe electricity and fuel supply crisis, rooted largely in years of inadequate planning for the exploration and development of domestic primary fuel resources.

The gas supply crisis that existed before the BNP-led government assumed power was further aggravated by the US-Israel war against Iran.

Bangladesh’s growing dependence on imported energy- particularly LNG and liquid fuels from the Middle East-has left the country highly exposed to international price and supply shocks.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted supply chains, while LNG imports under long-term contracts with Qatar and Oman were completely halted.

Bangladesh is now importing LNG from the spot market at almost three times the previous price.

The crisis was further intensifi ed when one of the country’s two fl oating LNG terminals was forced out of operation for more than three weeks following a fi re.

Gas and electricity supplies to all categories of users were severely affected.

Domestic consumers suffered from disruptions in cooking fuel supplies, CNG users faced shortages at fi lling stations, and the country experienced unprecedented power load-shedding.

Industries were hit hard by shortages of both gas and electricity.

Faced with the crisis, policymakers adopted a number of emergency measures.

The Prime Minister and State Minister for Energy have also announced mid- and long-term plans to achieve sustainable energy security.

This report assesses and analyzes those initiatives.

Expediting Petroleum Resources Exploration Programs The Awami League government had been proceeding with a plan to drill 50 and 100 wells.

The interim government, without making alternative arrangements, canceled all contracts and ongoing negotiations initiated during the Awami League regime.

During its one-and-a-half-year tenure, the gas defi cit widened to an alarming level.

The BNP-led government started with a gas defi cit of 1,200-1,400 MMCFD.

The new government has done everything possible to expedite the drilling projects of BAPEX, BGFCL and SGFL.

Some progress has been made, and some good news is expected soon.

The government has also announced initiatives to conduct seismic surveys to identify new resources for future drilling programs.

Experts have suggested mobilizing BAPEX rigs at Chhatak and Tengratila on a priority basis to monetize the gas resources there.

They have also suggested commencing exploration of potential gas resources in fi ve identifi ed areas in the greater Chittagong Hill Tracts.

The government remains uncertain about how to evacuate Bhola’s discovered gas resources to the national grid.

A properly executed plan could connect Bhola’s gas resources to the national grid at Khulna via Barishal within three years.

Khulna has anchor load, while the Barishal and Khulna regions have signifi cant potential for developing agriculture-based industries.

A gas transmission pipeline in the region would also encourage investors to explore there.

The government must declare the pipeline project a top-priority national project and engage a competent EPC contractor as soon as possible to execute it in challenging terrain.

Engaging IOCs under PSC Bangladesh’s image as a host country for PSC operations has not encouraged potential international oil companies (IOCs) to participate in offshore bidding in the Bay of Bengal.

The issues that led to the change of government in 2024, followed by what has been described as mob terrorism, have created a sense of insecurity among the investment community.

We are not sure the government will achieve much from the scheduled roadshows in Singapore, London and New York.

Experts have suggested organizing an international conference in Dhaka and inviting interested IOCs.

The updated Model PSC contains attractive provisions.

However, IOCs remain concerned about the prolonged, multistage decision-making process.

Records of mismanaging PSCs and arbitration cases also act as negative catalysts.

Still, we expect some participation by major IOCs and the quick conclusion of PSCs.

Experts have suggested offering PSCs for onshore blocks outside BAPEX’s ring-fenced areas.

Bangladesh may discover 2-5 Tcf of new gas from onshore exploration if 10 exploration rigs, operated by BAPEX and IOCs, can work in tandem from the end of 2027.

LNG Import Initiatives The government is negotiating a new FSRU with a Chinese company.

Some controversies have already arisen over the proposal and require clarifi cation to ensure transparency.

The government may also review the contract for a third FSRU with Summit Energy, which the interim government canceled without valid reasons.

The government must also expedite construction of the land-based LNG terminal at Matarbari.

Bangladesh must not increase LNG imports beyond 5,000 MMCFD, as LNG prices are likely to remain prohibitively high amid wars and confl icts across the globe.

The government must also explore alternative sources of LNG from Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Australia under long-term contracts.

Some storage facilities may also be developed to hold at least two months’ LNG demand, allowing Bangladesh to take advantage of lower prices in the spot market when available.

Proposals to set up FSRUs at Khulna and Barishal and to import LNG in ISO tanks would be a waste of time.

Fuel Utilization Strategy Sooner or later, Bangladesh will have to review the use of gas for cooking, transportation and even power generation.

Gas should be prioritized for fuel-effi cient industries and fertilizer plants.

LPG may be subsidized to bring its price closer to that of gas for domestic use before gradually phasing out gas supplies to domestic consumers and transport.

Power generation during the transition period can rely on coal, nuclear power, LNG and electricity imports until renewable energy grows suffi ciently as part of a smart energy transition.

Bangladesh must gradually move toward second- and third-generation fuel-effi cient industries.

Coal Reserve Exploitation Domestic coal must receive top-priority national attention.

Environmentally acceptable, proven technologies are available for exploiting high-quality coal deposits buried at mineable depths.

A decision now could assist in establishing at least 5,000MW of new domestic coal-based power generation by 2031.

There should be no major issues with mine-water management; agricultural land can be progressively rehabilitated, and mine-affected communities can be adequately compensated and resettled.

Restructuring Petrobangla and Companies Petrobangla is responsible for exploring, developing and supplying primary fuel.

It must be redeveloped as a Grade-A corporation without delay.

Only line professionals with relevant academic degrees and proven track records should be placed in top positions to reestablish Petrobangla’s credibility as a fl agship corporation in the energy sector.

Retired competent Petrobangla offi cials, researchers and business leaders should be included on the boards of directors of Petrobangla and its companies instead of inexperienced bureaucrats.

The pay scales of Petrobangla company offi cials must be commensurate with their tasks and responsibilities.

There must also be provisions for rewards and penalties based on achievements and failures.

One must remember that Bangladesh does not have an abundance of competent offi cials in the energy sector.

No one should be victimized because of political faith or belief.

The Prime Minister may invite former chairmen and senior executives to share their views on a road map for recovering from the present energy crisis

The world is entering a period of profound uncertainty.

Wars, geopolitical rivalry, trade tensions, climate change, debt pressures and technological disruption are reshaping the international system faster than its institutions can adapt.

The 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 81) offered a revealing snapshot of this transition.

The message for Bangladesh is particularly important.

As a climate-vulnerable developing country approaching LDC graduation, Bangladesh depends heavily on an international system capable of delivering predictable trade access, development fi nance, climate funding, technology transfer, and humanitarian support.

The prolonged Rohingya crisis adds another dimension to that dependence.

UNGA 81 demonstrated both the continuing relevance and the limitations of multilateralism.

Nearly 200 delegations participated in the General Debate, yet geopolitical divisions and the absence of several major leaders highlighted the diffi culty of translating international consensus into collective action.

For Bangladesh, this changing global order calls for a more strategic approach to international diplomacy.

Climate fi nance, LDC graduation, energy security, trade, investment, technology and the Rohingya crisis should not be treated as separate diplomatic priorities.

They are increasingly interconnected elements of the country’s economic and national-security interests.

Bangladesh should therefore remain fi rmly engaged with multilateral institutions while pressing for reforms that better refl ect the concerns of developing countries.

At the same time, it must strengthen its own capacity to negotiate, analyze global trends and build diverse economic and diplomatic partnerships.

The future of multilateralism remains uncertain.

But for Bangladesh, effective international cooperation is not an abstract ideal.

It is a practical national necessity.