The establishment of Pax Silica’s AI data centers in O’Donnell-Capas will generate regional heat island effects, with projected sustained temperature anomalies of 4.5 to 6 degrees Celsius compounded by El Niño drought cycles and monsoon wind curvature.
At peak amplification, effective field temperatures may reach 45 to 47ºC. Rice spikelet sterility can occur above 35 to 36ºC during flowering, preventing pollination and grain formation.
Under this scenario, the study projects that rice farming would become nonviable within the 12- to 15-kilometer core zone, forcing farmers to abandon traditional cultivation.
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, particularly large-scale data centers, has introduced environmental challenges beyond energy consumption.
Data centers consume large amounts of electricity and water for cooling and release waste heat that contributes to localized warming and urban heat island effects (Santamouris, 2015).
In the case of Pax Silica’s AI hub in O’Donnell-Capas, projections indicate sustained temperature anomalies of 4.5 to 6 degress Celsius, compounded by El Niño drought cycles and monsoon wind curvature.
These combined stresses amplify baseline climate warming and could create conditions in which effective field temperatures reach 45 to 47ºC. Rice spikelet sterility and crop failure can occur at substantially lower temperatures during flowering (Jagadish et al., 2007; IRRI, 2020).
The interaction of industrial heat emissions with seasonal wind patterns – the northeast monsoon, or Amihan, and the southwest monsoon, or Habagat – could further disperse heat plumes across areas of Pampanga and Tarlac, expanding the geographic extent of agricultural decline (Rosenzweig et al., 2018).
The convergence of industrial infrastructure and climate variability underscores the need for policy safeguards and adaptive strategies to protect food systems and rural livelihoods (FAO, 2021).
The data presented in the study were gathered through agro-climatic modeling, crop physiology benchmarks, and geographic overlay analysis.
Temperature thresholds for rice sterility and crop failure were derived from International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) field studies and peer-reviewed literature on heat stress in cereals (Jagadish et al., 2007; Hatfield and Prueger, 2015).
Economic loss estimates were calculated using baseline yields of 5 tons per hectare and a farmgate price of P25 per kilogram, consistent with regional averages reported by Philippine agricultural agencies.
Geographic impact zones were mapped using the formula for circular surface area, A = pr², applied to radii of 12 to 15 kilometers around O’Donnell-Capas and cross-referenced with municipal boundaries and barangay-level land-use data.
The overlay analysis identified Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Victoria, and La Paz, as well as parts of Angeles City, as areas directly affected, with barangays falling within the zone where agriculture is projected to become unviable.
How far the heat could spread
To estimate the land area involved, the study calculated the surface area of a circle with a radius of 12 to 15 kilometers around O’Donnell-Capas.
At a 12-kilometer radius, the affected zone covers about 452 square kilometers.
At a 15-kilometer radius, the zone expands to about 707 square kilometers.
Because 1 square kilometer equals 100 hectares, this translates to 45,200 to 70,700 hectares of land potentially exposed to extreme heat anomalies.
Not all of this area is farmland. But if half is under cultivation, about 22,000 to 35,000 hectares of cropland could become unproductive.
At a baseline yield of 5 tons per hectare, this represents 110,000 to 175,000 tons of rice lost per season, equivalent to the staple food supply for hundreds of thousands of people.
The projected heat island effects indicate that under extreme compounded warming, traditional crop agriculture could collapse in the core heat island zone.
Farmers would be unable to continue planting rice, corn, or vegetables under conditions in which pollination fails and photosynthesis shuts down.
The study identifies planned transitions to alternative livelihoods, household relocation, and compensation for lost income as possible responses.
Without such measures, the agricultural economy of O’Donnell-Capas and adjacent areas could face severe decline, with tens of thousands of hectares becoming unproductive because of industrial heat and climate stress.
The locations of the affected areas against the actual boundaries of Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Angeles City, and other localities, including towns and barangays within the 12- to 15-kilometer zone where agriculture is projected to become unviable, are shown on the map.
When extreme heat makes farming unviable
If effective field temperatures in Central Luzon rise to 36ºC or higher during rice flowering, spikelet sterility can occur, preventing pollination and grain formation.
This means rice yields could decline by more than 50% even before temperatures reach the projected 45 to 47ºC under El Niño conditions combined with heat island amplification.
At these thresholds, the study projects that planting rice would no longer be feasible.
Similar physiological limits apply to other crops. Corn pollen can desiccate under extreme heat, leading to poor fertilization.
Tomatoes, which require cooler nighttime temperatures for pollen tube elongation, can fail to set fruit.
Eggplant and pole sitao can suffer leaf burn and stomatal closure, halting photosynthesis and eventually causing plant death.
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The study projects that crop agriculture would become nonviable within a 12- to 15-kilometer radius of the heat island core.
The overlay analysis of the 12- to 15-kilometer heat island impact zone around O’Donnell-Capas, mapped against municipal boundaries and barangays, shows portions of Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Angeles City, Victoria, and La Paz within the area where crop agriculture is projected to become unfeasible under compounded warming.
The 12-kilometer radius, covering about 45,200 hectares, is identified as the high-impact core zone, where the study projects rice spikelet sterility and crop failure.
The 15-kilometer radius, covering about 70,700 hectares, represents the outer affected zone, where severe yield losses of more than 50% and crop nonviability are projected.
The overlay analysis shows that the 12- to 15-kilometer heat island zone encompasses 45,200 to 70,700 hectares, of which 22,000 to 35,000 hectares are cropland.
At baseline yields, this equates to 110,000 to 175,000 tons of rice lost per season, undermining food security for hundreds of thousands of people (IRRI, 2020).
Affected areas include Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Victoria, and La Paz, as well as parts of Angeles City, with barangays directly identified (Mendoza, 2026).
The map of affected barangays highlights the spatial overlap between projected industrial heat zones and agricultural communities, underscoring the need for local government unit-led relocation, compensation, and livelihood-transition programs.
The study calls for a contingency framework centered on emergency compensation for zero-yield seasons, adaptive cropping programs to shift farmers toward resilient crops, and community food-security measures, including expanded buffer stocks and rice imports.
Without such safeguards, the compounded effects of industrial heat and climate stress could make Central Luzon’s agricultural economy unsustainable and turn productive farmland into unproductive zones.
Farm incomes at risk
Farmers harvesting 5 tons per hectare at P25 per kilogram, or P125,000 per hectare per season, face total income loss under zero-yield conditions.
For smallholders cultivating 2 to 3 hectares, this equates to P250,000 to P375,000 annually, wiping out household income and leaving families unable to recover the cost of inputs (Mendoza, 2026).
Without compensation, the study projects that such losses could cause severe household economic distress, prompt farmers to leave agriculture, and disrupt rural livelihoods.
Transition programs should therefore include emergency compensation pegged at P125,000 per hectare, subsidies for heat-tolerant crops such as cassava, sorghum and mung bean, and insurance programs to provide protection against climate-induced crop failure (FAO, 2021).
The threat to food security
Within the projected heat island zone, agricultural losses would extend beyond farm income to the availability of staple food.
The study projects that crop failure in the core zone and severe yield declines in surrounding areas could undermine food security for hundreds of thousands of people and affect supply chains across Central Luzon.
When crops fail in the core heat zone
Within the 12-kilometer core zone of the Pax Silica heat island, the study projects that crop agriculture would become nonviable.
Rice spikelets, which are highly sensitive to heat stress, become sterile at sustained temperatures above 35 to 36ºC during flowering (Jagadish et al., 2007).
Under compounded warming, effective field temperatures may reach 45 to 47ºC, leading to zero-yield outcomes for rice, corn, and vegetables (IRRI, 2020).
This projected collapse translates to 22,600 hectares of cropland lost, equivalent to 113,000 tons of rice per season, undermining the staple food supply for hundreds of thousands of people.
The failure of agriculture in this zone would constitute both an economic and food-security crisis, as households lose income and access to subsistence crops (FAO, 2021).
How monsoon winds could widen the impact
Beyond the core zone, the study projects that yield decline would follow the curvature inflection of heat dispersion, shaped by seasonal wind patterns.
During the southwest monsoon, or Habagat, heat plumes are projected to extend northeast, affecting areas such as Gerona and Victoria.
During the northeast monsoon, or Amihan, heat is projected to disperse southwest, affecting barangays in Angeles City (Mendoza, 2026).
In the outer zone, from 12 to 15 kilometers from the core, rice yields are projected to decline by more than 50%, while corn and vegetables could suffer near-total fertilization failure because of pollen desiccation and stomatal closure (Hatfield and Prueger, 2015).
This wind-driven dispersion means food insecurity would not be confined to the immediate core. Its effects could extend outward, disrupting supply chains and buffer-stock systems across Central Luzon.
The compounded effects of industrial heat islands and monsoon-driven dispersion could transform Central Luzon’s food-producing areas.
Agriculture in the core zone is projected to cease, while outer zones could experience severe yield declines depending on seasonal wind curvature.
This dual impact threatens both local subsistence farming and regional food-supply chains and would require intervention.
What extreme heat does to crops
The vulnerability extends beyond rice.
Corn pollen can desiccate, leading to poor fertilization. Tomatoes can fail to set fruit because of disrupted pollen tube elongation.
Eggplant and pole sitao can suffer leaf burn and stomatal closure, halting photosynthesis until plant death (Hatfield and Prueger, 2015).
These physiological limits support the study’s projection that crop agriculture would cease to be viable within the heat island core.
What the projections mean for Central Luzon
The study projects that crop agriculture would cease to be viable within a 12- to 15-kilometer radius of the Pax Silica heat island core, with rice, corn and vegetables suffering severe yield losses because of sterility, leaf burn and failed pollination.
The economic impact would be severe for smallholder farmers, potentially causing major household income losses and prompting farmers to leave agriculture.
Geographic mapping indicates that tens of thousands of hectares across six localities could become unproductive, threatening food security for hundreds of thousands of people.
Without intervention, the compounded effects of industrial heat and climate stress could accelerate agricultural decline and destabilize rural livelihoods in Central Luzon.
What the study recommends
To mitigate these impacts, the study recommends a comprehensive contingency framework:
Emergency compensation: Provide immediate financial relief pegged at P125,000 per hectare to cover full rice-income losses during zero-yield seasons.
Adaptive cropping programs: Transition farmers toward heat-tolerant crops such as cassava, sorghum, mung bean and sweet potato, supported by subsidies and technical training.
Community food-security measures: Expand buffer-stock systems and support barangay-level grain storage and distribution systems to help households cope with seasonal shortages.
Relocation and resettlement: Implement government-led relocation programs for households in barangays fully within the 12-kilometer core zone, with funding from project proponents and public subsidies.
Insurance programs: Establish climate-risk insurance to provide protection against crop failure and household income losses.
Emergency food-security programs: Expand rice buffer stocks and diversify imports to offset projected regional losses.
Wind-pattern monitoring: Establish agrometeorological stations to track monsoon-driven heat dispersion and anticipate yield declines.
Adaptive cropping: Promote resilient crops in outer zones to reduce dependence on rice and corn.
Local government preparedness: Local government units in Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Victoria, and La Paz, as well as Angeles City, should prepare relocation, compensation and livelihood-transition programs guided by the map of affected barangays to ensure targeted interventions.
Regional coordination: Align local government responses across Capas, Bamban, Gerona, Victoria, La Paz and Angeles City to ensure food-security planning is integrated with relocation and compensation programs.