As Uganda heads toward the 2026 General Election, the increasing number of party-leaning Independents is emerging as a serious challenge for both the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the main Opposition party, National Unity Platform (NUP).
In several districts across Uganda, many disgruntled NRM and NUP aspirants who lost the party flag have already announced their intentions to contest the upcoming elections as Independent candidates.
These politicians cite a range of grievances, including alleged irregularities, voter bribery, and manipulation during the party primaries, which they claim undermined the credibility of the nomination process.
The move by these Independent aspirants is already stirring debates about the future of party cohesion, the role of internal dispute resolution, and the impact on Uganda’s broader electoral dynamics. The problem is not limited to the ruling party. In Opposition strongholds, especially within the NUP, several aspirants who failed to secure the flag have also opted to run as Independents, accusing party leaders of favouritism and lack of transparency.
NUP recently unveiled its much-anticipated list of parliamentary flag-bearers ahead of the 2026 General Election. The list, which has sparked mixed reactions across the political spectrum, saw several of the party’s well-known incumbents lose their positions to new faces.
In Wakiso District’s Busiro East constituency, long-serving legislator Medard Lubega Sseggona was replaced by Mathias Walukagga, a popular musician-turned-politician.
Similarly, in Mityana District, Woman MP Joyce Bagala, who has been among NUP’s most outspoken female legislators, lost the party flag to Proscovia Mukisa.
The reshuffle continued in Kampala, where Makindye East MP Derrick Nyeko was replaced by Ali Kasirye Nganda Mulyannyama, and Allan Ssewanyana of Makindye West lost to Zahrah Maala Luyirika.
In Lubaga South, Aloysius Mukasa bows out for Nassolo Euginia, while Kazibwe Bashir, the outspoken Kawempe South MP, ceded his position to Fred Nyanzi Ssentamu, a senior brother to party president Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine).
Winds of change
In the 2021 elections, NUP made a historic breakthrough by capturing 57 parliamentary seats, the majority of them from Buganda region, with only two seats won outside the region. This stronghold, however, has also exposed the party to internal pressures as it balances loyalty, merit, and public perception among its growing support base.
Mr Moses Mukiibi, a political analyst, says this trend reveals a deep crisis of internal democracy within Uganda’s political parties.
‘When defeated candidates contest as independents, they divide the party’s voter base and weaken its collective bargaining power. It also shows that parties are struggling to manage disputes arising from flawed primary processes.’
The number of Independent MPs in Uganda’s Parliament has been steadily growing over the years, reflecting both the internal weaknesses of political parties and the increasing confidence of individuals to contest outside traditional party structures.
For instance, in 2006, Parliament had 284 members, with the NRM dominating at 191 MPs, followed by the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) with 37, and 36 Independents, the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) with nine, and the Democratic Party (DP) with eight. By 2011, the size of Parliament had increased to 350.
The NRM maintained a commanding lead with 250 MPs, while FDC held 34, DP had 12, and UPC had 10. Elsewhere, the Independents rose slightly to 41. In 2016, the number of legislators further grew to 426, with the NRM securing 298 seats, FDC 36, DP 15, UPC six.
The Independents, meanwhile, jumped to 66, a significant rise. The 2021 Parliament, which expanded to 529 MPs, continued the trend. The NRM retained majority control with 336 MPs, followed by NUP with 57 seats. FDC had 32, DP and UPC nine apiece, whereas Independents reached 74.
This steady growth in the number of Independents points to a broader trend in Uganda’s politics, where discontent with party primaries, internal disputes, and personalised local politics increasingly drive candidates to contest outside formal party lines.
It also underscores how party loyalty is often secondary to individual popularity and financial strength at the constituency level. The coming weeks are expected to test the party’s unity, as some of the displaced incumbents weigh their political options.
Mr Patrick Masika, a political analyst, says the spike in the number of Independents reflects growing frustration among party loyalists.
‘The NRM primaries have increasingly become a source of conflict rather than unity,’ said Mr Masika. ‘The aftermath often weakens the party’s cohesion at the grassroots level, as those who lose turn their supporters against the official flag bearers.’
Going round in circles?
According to the Electoral Commission (EC), nominations for MPs are scheduled to take place on October 22 and 23.
Monitor has learnt that more than 210 MPs from the ruling party who lost out in the NRM’s recent primaries have announced plans to contest as independent candidates, rejecting calls from the NRM secretariat to step aside. ‘President Museveni went to Luweero, and people died because he was fighting vote rigging.
Unfortunately, vote rigging has followed him into his political party. He knows what happened in our constituencies; that is why he formed the Election Tribunal.
We will campaign for him because he isn’t the one who rigged us out; the people know who did,’ Mr Barnabas Tinkasimiire, the Buyaga West lawmaker, said, adding that the general election would give them ‘a safer chance’ to reclaim voter trust, unlike the primaries which he described as ‘a sham where one person votes ten times, they count the child on the back, the womb, everything but the actual voter.’ Mr Richard Wanda, the Bungokho Central lawmaker in Mbale District, equally questioned the authority of the NRM secretariat to block Independents.
‘If the party had organised credible primaries, it would have the moral right to stop members from running as independents. But since it failed, the Constitution gives us the right to contest,’ Mr Wanda argued.
Candidate Museveni, the NRM presidential flag-bearer, has cautioned the party’s lawmakers who lost in recent party primaries against contesting as independent candidates in the forthcoming elections.
‘Where there are NRM and opposition candidates, I wouldn’t advise you to come as Independent, because if you do and things go wrong, you will be the one to blame. Where there are only NRMs in the race, even there I would prefer you use the law, so that you don’t confuse our people,’ Mr Museveni said this week.
He added: ‘In this case, if you are annoyed and stand as an independent, and then the other flag-bearer is there, what if now you divide the vote and the opposition takes the constituency? How will you forgive yourself?’ Mr Museveni cited the last election in Buganda where the NRM lost over 21 seats due to vote-splitting between party candidates and independents. The NRM chairperson further advised that any candidate who believes they were cheated should pursue legal action.
Mr Theodore Ssekikubo, the Lwemiyaga County lawmaker, who was among the Independents who met Mr Museveni confirmed that the NRM chairperson ‘promised to investigate the election irregularities that marred the NRM primaries.’
Political observers say these investigations will barely move the needle. If anything, they warn that the growing wave of independents could split the NRM vote in several constituencies, giving opposition candidates a potential advantage.
Monetisation
The competition for elective positions in Uganda has become increasingly intense, with tension mounting across most districts as more individuals enter the political arena. According to political analysts, the surge in interest for elective offices is largely driven by the growing monetisation of politics. Analysts further note that the huge financial benefits attached to political positions-including high salaries, allowances, and influence over government contracts-have made politics one of the most lucrative ventures in the country.
As a result, even those with little public service experience are increasingly drawn into the race, seeing elective office as a fast route to wealth and social status.
For instance, during Uganda’s first election under NRM in 1996, there were only 900 elective positions across the country, from presidential to local government roles. Today, that number has increased to about 3.3 million elective positions across 146 districts, underscoring the heightened competition.
It doesn’t help matters that lawmakers are remunerated well. They are entitled to a base monthly salary of Shs25m, a one-off vehicle allowance of Shs150m, a subsistence allowance of Shs4.5m per month, a town running allowance of Shs1m, medical allowance of Shs500,000 and a plenary sitting allowance of Shs150,000, among others.
Fissures
Mr Ronald Kyagulanyi, a senior lecturer at Muteesa I Royal University, said when a candidate fails to go through the party primaries, it often means that the party no longer favours that individual or believes there is someone more suitable for the flag. This is without consequences.
‘Each candidate has their own supporters, and at the end of the day, they end up sharing votes between the official flag bearer and the Independent candidate,’ Mr Kyagulanyi said. While Opposition parties like NUP have fences to mend, the ruling NRM appears to be most affected.
Dr Juma Kakuba Sultan, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Kyambogo University, told Monitor that the deepening divisions within NRM following its recent primary elections stem from a combination of procedural grievances, political ambition, and broader questions about internal democracy.
‘The lack of strong internal party democratic institutions has made many NRM candidates who were defeated in the party primaries claim that the process was marred by irregularities such as vote rigging, biased returning officers, and manipulation of voter registers. Such claims reflect a lack of confidence in the NRM Electoral Commission,’ he opined.
Mr Timothy Chemonges, the executive director of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), has said the ongoing divisions within the NRM reveal a serious decline in the party’s internal democracy. ‘What’s happening inside the NRM right now tells us a lot about how weakened its internal democracy has become,’ Mr. Chemonges said.
‘These are not just isolated cases of politicians refusing to concede defeat-they point to a deeper loss of trust in the party’s own systems.’
According to him, the elections have turned into contests of influence rather than fairness, where loyalty is often rewarded over legitimacy. ‘In the end, the NRM’s internal elections now mirror the same problems that plague our national politics-limited transparency, patronage, and the sense that rules only apply when they suit those in control,’ he concluded.