Samia Suluhu Hassan took her first elected mandate, with Tanzania’s electoral body announcing on Saturday that the 65-year-old had won a disputed presidential election with nearly 98 percent of the vote.
This victory, however, comes with a burden of legitimacy, righting the wrongs of the past, calming the storm of an angry Gen Z and a restless Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) rank and file and building the economy. The final result announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that Samia had won 97.66 percent of a presidential contest that also featured 16 fringe candidates. INEC began announcing provisional results on Thursday, which showed Samia winning a commanding lead in various constituencies.
Hussein Mwinyi, president of the semi-autonomous Zanzibar archipelago, who is from the ruling CCM, was re-elected with more than 78 percent of the vote, the commission announced. But Samia had all along been expected to win. What was not clear is how many voters would turn up, especially after the biggest rivals in ACT-Wazalendo and Chadema were barred from competing against her. From the interim result, voter turnout was low.
In the next phase of government, Samia’s immediate challenge will be dealing with the mounting dissent, especially among those who supported Opposition parties. CCM is expected to retain its mammoth majority in parliament, allowing her leverage to push through policies that benefit her establishment. But that might add up to her acceptability challenge. In the meantime, protesters have been marching in cities since voting day, putting the Tanzanian security agencies to the test.
According to the UN human rights office, at least 10 people were killed by security forces during protests. ‘We are alarmed by the deaths and injuries that have occurred in the ongoing election-related protests in Tanzania. Reports we have received indicate that at least 10 people were killed,’ UN human rights spokesperson Seif Magango told Geneva reporters, citing ‘credible sources’ in the country.
This came after Amnesty International’s regional director for East and Southern Africa, Tigere Chagutah, termed as ‘deeply disturbing,’ the violence during the election and its aftermath. ‘The risk of further escalation is high,’ Mr Chagutah warned. ‘We urge the police to exercise restraint and refrain from using unnecessary and excessive force against protesters.
The Tanzanian authorities must promptly conduct a thorough and independent investigation into the unlawful use of lethal force against protesters, and the perpetrators must be held accountable.’ Experts say Tanzania’s security agencies have already exposed their fears that protests could balloon into something the rulers won’t control.
This was evident when the head of the military, Gen Jacob John Mkunda, came out to issue a terse statement against the protests. ‘Some people went to the streets on October 29 and committed criminal acts. These are criminals and the criminal acts should be stopped immediately,’ Gen Mkunda said on state TV, adding that the army had ‘controlled the situation’.
The protesters continued to defy such threats. Jervin Naidoo, a political economist at Oxford Economics, said the heavy-handed response by security forces was driven by government paranoia and a determination to deny the Opposition any opening, ‘influenced in part by recent regional trends where incumbent parties have suffered electoral setbacks in Namibia and South Africa, or in Botswana, were even voted out of power.’
Police imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew and civil servants were ordered to work from home. Mr Naidoo said businesses and investors with interests or operations in Tanzania and Zanzibar should remain vigilant throughout the post-election period because it could become an economic problem.
The tensions had been expected – the storm had been building for months. On September 16, Luhaga Mpina, the presidential contender of ACT-Wazalendo, the country’s second-largest party, was barred from running. Chadema, the largest Opposition party, had been entirely barred from competing for any seat and its leader Tundu Lissu detained and charged with treason. Western nations, whose citizens make up a significant portion of Tanzania’s five million annual tourists, this week issued travel advisories.
The UK and US embassies urged their nationals to stay indoors and delay travel plans. Political leaders also criticised the election. Three members of the European Parliament issued a joint statement condemning the election process: ‘These elections cannot be regarded as free and fair. The fraud began long before the ballot box.’
They cited the arrest of Opposition leaders, exclusion of parties and suppression of civic space. ‘The arrest and trial of Mr Lissu-whose only ‘crime’ was demanding free elections-exemplifies the collapse of democratic values in Tanzania. He must be released immediately and unconditionally.’
The statement was signed by David McAllister (EPP, Germany), Mounir Satouri (Greens/EFA, France) and Merja Kyllönen (The Left, Finland), all chairs of key European Parliament committees. ‘No election is credible when opposition is silenced, freedom of assembly is denied and media are censored. Reports of irregularities, observer obstruction and violence against dissenters have further eroded the process,’ they added.
Now, President Samia, who comes from Zanzibar, will have to work hard for acceptability, especially on the Mainland. To achieve that, she may have to compromise many things, including engaging with her harshest critics in the Opposition.
The economy
In the immediate post-election period, the Tanzanian shilling has remained relatively stable at 2,459.9 to the dollar. But economist Shani Smit-Lengton noted that it had depreciated by 0.8 percent month-on-month to 2,490.4 to the dollar last week. ‘In response, the Bank of Tanzania intervened in the foreign exchange market, selling $15 million through the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market to stabilise the currency and ensure liquidity, particularly in the lead-up to the elections,’ Mr Shani said. ‘Economically, once her new term begins, we think Samia will prioritise strengthening Tanzania’s human capital,’ Mr Naidoo said. ‘The country must urgently address challenges in this area to fully harness the ongoing demographic transition. Nearly half of Tanzanians are under 18, and the population is projected to double to over 130 million by 2050.’
The current criticism and uncertainty at home and abroad is likely to impact investment and even Tanzania’s tourism, a critical revenue earner. Yet Tanzania’s cough has already infected neighbours who traditionally trade with it. Data from the Kenya Ports Authority shows more ships seeking to dock and importers choosing Kenya over Dar, to avoid the turbulence there.
There was a marked drop in cross-border movement as small traders and truck drivers, who rely on Tanzanian market days, complained of slow clearance at the border points. Celinah Sholo, chairperson of the Taveta Cross Border Cooperative Society, said many traders stayed away due to fear and uncertainty. In Kwale County, Deputy County Commissioner Christopher Siele said the Lunga Lunga border remained open but under heightened security. Public transport and cargo traffic had significantly declined.
Politics, Gen Z and CCM
At the Namanga one-stop border post, an Internet shutdown on Thursday paralysed operations. Hundreds of Tanzanian protesters, fearing police reprisals, crossed into Kenya and lit bonfires. Some Kenyans joined them as police from Tanzania fired teargas to repulse them. Kajiado County Police Commander Alex Shikondi said Kenyan police officers were deployed to restore order and push Tanzanians back across the border. When she inherited the seat in March 2021 after the death of President John Pombe Magufuli, Samia was praised for relaxing some rules, including lifting a ban on political rallies and inviting Mr Lissu back home from exile. She also reopened some closed independent media outlets as well as lifted a ban on teenage girls who had given birth from attending school. But, she would soon roll back the political freedoms.
Today, rights watchers say this week’s election was a sham – indeed, a coronation. ‘President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government has dashed hopes for reform. Instead, under her watch, authorities have continued and intensified repressive practices targeting Opposition leaders, civil society, journalists and dissenting voices, including through assaults, arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances, with nobody held accountable,’ said Amnesty’s Chagutah.
‘Authorities must end their unacceptable campaign of repression against dissent, which has escalated since the last elections five years ago.’ Tanzania formally rejected the assessment. Gerson Msigwa, the government spokesman, said Amnesty did not seek the Tanzanian side of the story. Mr Msigwa said Tanzania follows universal standards on protection of civil rights. Amnesty claimed that Dodoma didn’t respond to their enquiries.
REVIEW
The Gen Z are not the only problem Samia faces. She will have to decide whether to purge the CCM of critics and reluctant supporters or compromise for the sake of taming further chaos, and start on the path of reform. In the past, she has agreed to constitutional review, a crucial issue, especially for the Opposition.
She argued that Katiba review can happen after elections even as her opponents demanded reforms before the elections, a crusade now to blame for Mr Lissu’s current woes. The Chadema leader rallied the masses to boycott the elections unless legal reforms were instituted to level the playing field. But reforming the political system could be risky for the future of CCM.
Tanzania is one of the few countries in the world where presidential electoral results cannot be challenged in a court of law. By giving INEC absolute powers on vote tallying and announcement, critics argue that it removes safety valves often provided by courts of law. This has, however, protected CCM’s stronghold on the polity. Reforming the legal regime whittles down the party’s clout and could be an existential threat going forward. But the calls for legal and governance reforms are about to get louder, thanks to a Gen Z that is keen on ‘retaking’ their country.