The economic planners are thinking big, with focus on government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which seeks to grow the economy from $61b to $500b by 2040 by doubling gross domestic product (GDP) every five years.
The blueprint rests on one foundation: agro-industrialisation, transforming what Uganda grows into what the world consumes.
This ambition took centre stage at the 16th National Competitiveness Forum in Kampala yesterday.
Ms Dianah Nannono, the Ministry of Finance head of private sector development, said the forum is key for shaping Uganda’s competitiveness and ‘allows us to agree on interventions that enhance private sector growth and feed into the national budget process’.
Uganda is now implementing the Second National Strategy for Private Sector Development, which focuses on macro, industry-specific, and firm-level competitiveness.
Building on last year’s focus on innovation, this year’s discussions emphasised agro-industrialisation as the ‘fastest route’ to structural transformation.
‘Agro-manufacturing accounts for 65 percent of Uganda’s manufacturing value added, and food products alone contribute over half of that,’ Ms Nannono said. ‘We must deepen regional markets and explore new ones.’
Across Africa, the middle class, 313 million strong, is projected to hit 1.1 billion by 2060, with urbanisation driving a sevenfold increase in demand for processed foods by 2040.
Uganda already exports 58 percent of its goods within Africa, including over half of its animal feeds, and Ministry of Finance Permanent Secretary Ramathan Ggoobi, in a speech read for him, said: ‘With AfCFTA, the regional market is ours to lose’.
This, he said, would be obtained through boosting exports’ share of GDP from 12 percent to 50 percent, increasing manufactured exports to half of merchandise trade, expanding high-tech goods, and growing agro-industrial exports from $4b to $20b annually.
Uganda’s biggest opportunities and weaknesses lie in the animal feed sector. In 2023, the country exported 3,144 tonnes worth $1m but imported 136,878 tonnes valued at $52m.
‘This is a classic case for import substitution,’ said Nannono. ‘We must invest in local packaging, raw material production, and quality control.’
Government agrees that transformation will depend on private enterprise.
‘The private sector remains the primary mobilizer of land, labour, capital, and technology,’ Ggoobi said. ‘We must work hand in hand to make Uganda an economic frontier.’
He added that agro-processing is already the fastest-growing manufacturing segment, expanding at 19 percent annually, and could become the backbone of Uganda’s industrial revolution.
Thus, Uganda’s future, speakers agreed, lies in value addition, not raw exports, and with Africa’s demand for processed food and animal protein soaring, Uganda is positioning itself as the region’s factory floor for food.
‘Regional markets offer an unparalleled opportunity to transform our food and feed sectors into engines of job creation and export-led growth,’ Ggoobi said. ‘If we position ourselves right, Uganda will be the beating heart of Africa’s agro-industry.’