Formal export posted a mixed performance in the third quarter of 2025, with coffee emerging as the main source of resilience amid broad declines across non-coffee commodities.
Bank of Uganda data show that total formal exports returned a value of $1.25b in July, before falling to $1.06b in August and slipping further to $947.33m in September.
The downward trend in overall earnings underlines the pressure facing key export sectors, even as coffee continued to provide stability.
Coffee factor
Coffee remained the most reliable performer over the three months, returning $249.87m in July, but dipped to $202.75m in August, before recovering to $218.55m in September.
The September rebound, following the August setback, underscores the crop’s relative strength in a challenging export environment.
With global demand for coffee holding firm and Uganda’s production capacity remaining robust, the commodity once again acted as a crucial buffer for the country’s external sector.
However, beyond coffee, non-coffee exports, which make up the bulk of the export basket, declined from $932.83m in July to $789.95m in August and then to $663.94m in September.
This represents a drop of nearly 30 percent over the quarter and explains much of the contraction in total exports during the period.
The decline points to weakening performance in several key product lines and heightened vulnerability to shifts in global commodity markets.
Gold’s declining returns
Gold, historically Uganda’s leading non-coffee export, was at the centre of this decline. Export receipts from gold stood at $584.18m in July, but slipped to $526.33m in August, before declining sharply to $410.99m in September.
Given gold’s outsized contribution to non-coffee exports, its slowdown had a significant impact on the overall numbers. Yet, on the international market, gold prices have been on the rise.
Other traditional commodities also struggled to maintain momentum. Tea exports declined throughout the quarter, dropping from $5.13m in July to $3.65m in August and $3.51m in September.
For a sector that has often been associated with stability, the steady fall raises questions about pricing, demand, and production dynamics in the tea-growing regions.
Volatile path
Cotton exports followed a similar but more volatile path. Earnings rose slightly from $1.08m in July to $1.17m in August, hinting at a possible improvement, only to more than halve to $0.54m in September.
The September slump reflects seasonal factors in harvesting and ginning, or short-term logistical and market challenges, but it also mirrors the broader softening seen in non-coffee exports during the quarter.
Equally uneven
Tobacco exports were equally uneven. Revenues stood at $1.14m in July, jumped to $2.31m in August, but then dropped to $1.21 m in September.
The brief surge in August was not sustained, leaving the quarter as a whole characterised more by volatility than growth. Taken together, the numbers illustrate an export sector divided between steadiness and fragility.
On one side, coffee continues to demonstrate resilience, rebounding in September and remaining a dependable source of foreign exchange, while on the other, non-coffee exports, led by gold, tea, cotton, and tobacco, lost traction over the quarter, pulling down export earnings from about $1.25b in July to under $1b by September.
Strong showing
However, government and other stakeholders in the export sector could be encouraged by coffee’s strong showing, even as concern over the breadth and depth of the decline across other export categories seems to be a source of worry.
Bank of Uganda data highlights the importance of diversifying export products, adding value along the value chain, and strengthening competitiveness in global markets.
Without renewed momentum in non-coffee sectors, Uganda’s export performance will remain heavily dependent on a single commodity, exposing the wider economy to shocks beyond its control.