Uganda Cranes will be live in Algeria on Tuesday – but with ears and eyes also turned to Cameroon and DR Congo – as the chase for the remaining Caf World Cup playoff berths reaches fever pitch.
Burkina Faso’s 3-1 win over Ethiopia and Niger’s 1-0 victory over Zambia on Sunday moved both sides to 15 points, leaving them anxiously watching results from elsewhere. Gabon, already on 16 with a game to spare, are assured of a playoff slot.
That leaves a scramble for the remaining three places among Burkina Faso (15), Niger (15), Cameroon (14), DR Congo (13), Uganda (12) and South Africa (11) as the final group-stage fixtures unfold across the continent on Tuesday – and Monday night in Cameroon’s case.
Mathematical maze
For Uganda, the equation is brutally simple – yet painfully complicated.
Victory in Boukhalfa is non-negotiable. The Cranes ideally need to beat a team they have never beaten on home soil by a margin that improves their goal difference from +3 to at least +5 and then hope Cameroon and DR Congo fail to win.
Actually, a draw for Cameroon, who will have already played by the time Uganda face Algeria, and defeat for DRC, would be enough for the Indomitable Lions to progress on goal difference.
If both Cameroon and DR Congo triumph, Uganda’s fate is sealed regardless of their result.
This chaotic permutation is the direct consequence of a Caf rule change, quietly communicated to member associations in March 2025 following Eritrea’s withdrawal from Group I in November 2023.
The regulation – discounting matches against bottom-placed teams when ranking runners-up – erased six points and three goals from Uganda’s record after their two wins over Somalia were annulled.
The adjustment plunged the Cranes from what would have been 18 points and a healthy goal buffer to just 12 points, forcing them into a desperate race in a contest rewritten by administrative decree rather than just results on the pitch.
Against the odds
Tuesday’s clash at Stade Hocine-Aït-Ahmed in Boukhalfa, Tizi Ouzou, north-central Algeria, is daunting. Algeria, already qualified, are almost flawless at home this campaign, with the 2-1 defeat to Guinea last year the only blemish.
Uganda have never beaten Algeria away, and history makes the task formidable. Yet for Paul Put’s side, this fixture is as much about a statement of growth as it is about survival.
‘We know Algeria will be a difficult game,’ said Put. ‘They are one of Africa’s strongest sides, but football can surprise you. We just have to believe, stay organised, and take our chances.’
Onyango’s return and leadership spine
The Cranes are expected to field the same XI that edged Botswana 1-0 in Francistown last Thursday – a match that marked Denis Onyango’s first start since 2021.
The veteran goalkeeper, recalled after four years of international retirement, adds leadership behind a defensive line of Toby Sibbick, Elio Capradossi, Jordan Obita and Aziz Kayondo.
Ahead of the line Khalid Aucho will anchor midfield alongside Kenneth Ssemakula, while Allan Okello, Jude Ssemugabi, and Rogers Mato carry the attacking load just behind Stephen Mukwala.
‘Regardless of whether I play or not, I remain a key member of this team,’ Onyango said. ‘The coaches have shown trust in me, and in football, anything can happen. We have given ourselves a chance.’
Algeria – star-studded and assured
For Algeria, the match is largely about maintaining rhythm and finishing the group strongly.
Coach Vladimir Petkovic may rotate lightly but will rely on Riyad Mahrez and Mohamed Amoura, scorers in the 3-0 win over Somalia last week, to lead a technically superior and experienced squad.
‘We respect Uganda,’ Petkovic said. ‘They have shown resilience and good organisation under their new coach. But we want to finish strong at home in front of our fans.’
Final push
For Uganda, victory alone is not enough – they must win, and then wait.
Their resilience will be tested under Boukhalfa’s floodlights. A win could yet drag them into the playoff conversation – or, if results elsewhere go their way, even into a historic November showdown.
Regardless of the numbers, Put’s Cranes are playing for more than points. The Cranes are playing for belief, respect, and momentum, heading into the Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco in December.
Fifa 2026 World Cup Qualifiers (Caf)
Final Group G fixtures
October 14
Algeria vs Uganda, Stade Hocine-Aït-Ahmed, Boukhalfa, 7pm
Guinea vs Botswana, Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca, 7pm
Somalia vs Mozambique, Miloud Hadefi Olympic Complex, Bir El Djir, 7pm
Table for best four second-placed teams after Caf rule was applied
Team Pts GD Final opponents
Gabon (advanced) 16 +4 vs Burundi (H)
Burkina Faso 15 +6 Completed
Niger 15 +1 Completed
Cameroon 14 +9 vs Angola (H)
DR Congo 13 +4 vs Sudan (H)
Uganda 12 +3 vs Algeria (A)
South Africa 11 +1 vs Rwanda (H)