Factors that may influence voting in Karamoja region

Karamoja Sub-region, located in the north-eastern part of Uganda and currently comprising nine districts, has long been a stronghold of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) government.

Despite this unwavering support, many residents feel that key issues affecting the region remain unaddressed. According to the 2024 census, the sub-region has a population of approximately 1,496,117 people, with a total land area of about 27,900 square kilometres. However, literacy remains a significant concern.

As per the 2019/2020 data, literacy levels stood at just 30.4 percent, far below the national average of 76.1 percent. Male literacy was estimated at 40.3 percent, while female literacy lagged at 22.6 percent. This means only about three in 10 residents can read and write.

Karamoja is solely dependent on agro-pastoralism and has endured the effects of cattle raids, insecurity as a result of the porous borders where illegal ammunition is secretly traded, unpredictable weather patterns, which have often exposed the sub-region to shocks of famine, resultant effects of malnutrition, and child trafficking perpetuated by the high levels of illiteracy.

Mr Paul Ongorok, a resident of Abim District, said there are several factors that, under the ideal political party dispensation, would influence the 2026 elections in Karamoja but being a sub-region that almost 100 percent supports the ruling party, the issues raised by some of the locals will be ignored.

‘The issue of Abim District hospital remains a big challenge, the hospital has no standby generator, the theatre is completely dilapidated and so are the wards, often the entire hospital gets bushy with little attention paid,’ he explained.

Mr Ongorok added that the roads in the northern part of Karamoja are a testament that the area politically is stale because there are no serious Opposition leaders on ground to hold the ruling NRM accountable. He said in situations of referrals, it is a nightmare for both the ambulance driver and the sick patients themselves.

‘We are now 15 years from the time the government promised to elevate the greater northern Karamoja road from Teso to Karenga to tarmac, but nothing has come forth,’ Mr Ongorok said.

Mr William Longole, from Nabilatuk District, said the electioneering period allows people to hold those in power accountable, but unfortunately, in some places in the country, it comes with intimidation. He added that Karamoja has significant untapped agricultural potential, but the greenbelts around Karamoja are ending in the hands of a few individuals leaving the majority with rocky lands where farming can’t thrive.

Mr Longole said it is his prayer that the educated elites will use this opportunity to ask the government to ensure that there is equitable distribution of the greenbelts for purposes of food production. ‘This is not happening, we are seeing instead a few people own the green spaces, get bumper harvests, which are not used to serve people,’ Mr Longole argued.

He said it is equally his hope that the issue of human rights protection is brought to the fore by all stakeholders in this election. ‘We had the court make a pronouncement on the issue of civilians being tried in military courts. We thought by now the thousands of youth being held in the various prisons across the country would have been released, but this has not happened,’ he said.

Mr Peter Adei, the titular head of the Karamoja Cultural Association of Elders, said the absence of serious Opposition leaders and parties in Karamoja Sub-region is already an assured gift for the ruling NRM party that it will once again have a lion’s share of the vote in the sub-region. He said this also plays a big role in service delivery, because there is no opposing arm to hold those in power accountable.

According to Mr Adei, what Karamoja needs in the next term of 2026 to 3031 is to ensure that every parish has a primary school, every sub-county gets a secondary school, and each village gets clean sources of water for both human use and for the agro-pastoralists.

Mr Adei said since NRM remains the majority party in Karamoja, other parties find it difficult to access the people. ‘Those who come to contests under the Opposition tickets are never taken seriously, they are ignored and have rarely succeeded in the business of election in Karamoja,’ the elder said.

Mr Ernest Ayen, a youth chairperson for Karamoja, who is also a National Unity Platform party mobiliser, said the element of money will determine the vote in Karamoja. He added that politics have been commercialised, and the ruling party will ride on that at all levels, from the presidency to the local council 1 chairperson. ‘Secondly, they will use intimidation in areas where they will find resistance using the security apparatus, those two factors will stand out in Karamoja,’ he said.

Mr Felix Mark Lochale, LC5 chairperson for Karenga District, stated that due to irregularities in the NRM primaries, several independents are likely to win in 2026. However, at the presidential level, he believes the incumbent will retain dominance, largely due to improved security, successful disarmament campaigns, and a reduction in cattle raids. He acknowledged the government’s failure to deliver on critical road infrastructure promises, including the Moroto-Kotido, Soroti-Kotido-Karenga, and Karenga-Kitgum roads.

Mr Jimmy Ochero raised concerns over mineral exploitation in Karamoja, particularly the lack of clarity regarding the share of mining revenue allocated to local districts. He also condemned the government’s silence on surface rights, which he said continue to be violated. ‘Surface rights for agro-pastoralists are being disregarded, and our leaders remain silent,’ Ochero said.

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