Old videos of President Museveni’s speeches when he had just seized power have been circulating on social media in the run-up to the January 15 presidential election. They are hard to ignore. He was talking sense. In at least three of those videos I have watched, the President made categorical statements that Ugandans would have much better leadership following his inauguration. In one video, shot in 1985 before he seized power, Mr Museveni says he was an intellectual but decided to become a soldier because ‘I had to defend myself and my people against State-inspired violence’.
He accuses former president Milton Obote – who died in exile in Zambia in 2005 – of killing civilians. And he lists years in which civilians were killed by security forces. In the late 1980s and 1990s, many Ugandans watching these videos would be impressed. Mr Museveni was very popular. I first saw him in 1988 (two years after he had captured power) in Kanoni, Gomba, and I remember seeing large crowds of people who welcomed him. People still turn up to listen to him. But since the presidential campaigns started, Ugandans have seen letters on social media written by senior civil servants asking students to attend the President’s rallies. That means waning popularity.
His campaign slogan says ‘Protecting the Gains’. But whether he has delivered better leadership than those he fought depends on who you ask. A video of a purported mechanic in Kawempe, who complained to Mr Museveni about his leadership, may not paint the whole picture of what he has failed to do. But the mechanic was spot on. He said if a former Resident District Commissioner (RDC) – appointed by the President himself and earns a comparatively better salary – cannot afford medical treatment, how about a mechanic?
The mechanic was speaking for thousands of Ugandans who are in poor health but are too broke to seek medical care. And he went on to tell the President what he ought to have done decades ago: introducing affordable health insurance. Mr Museveni’s failure at social service delivery raises questions about whether his decision to take up arms and fight the governments of Idi Amin and Milton Obote was really about providing better leadership. One also has to ask how committed he has been to ending State-inspired violence, especially when that violence is captured daily and shared on social media.
It is worth mentioning that rebel armies, led by the National Resistance Army (NRA) that fought Obote’s government and that of Gen Tito Okello Lutwa were also responsible for the violence. In fact, as I have previously argued here, if Mr Museveni had not launched an armed rebellion after the 1980 election, Luweero and other places, where fighting was concentrated, would not have seen death and destruction. The State-inspired violence claim completely ignores how it all started. Yes, Amin was responsible to a certain extent. How about Obote? Did he start it? Would he send soldiers to Luweero if there were no rebels at all? Would soldiers be deployed to man numerous checkpoints across the country if there were no rebels?
Mr Museveni launched an armed rebellion after losing an election. But he had zero chance of winning the vote. The main contenders were Obote and Paul Ssemogerere, who died in November 2022. Even if Mr Museveni had contested a second time in 1985, or even a third, he was never going to be elected. But he very much wanted to lead Uganda, and all his political manoeuvres from the 1960s onwards strongly suggested he was eyeing the presidency. The man who was his guardian, the late Boniface Byanyima, gave The Observer a tell-all interview and made it very clear that Mr Museveni wanted to lead Uganda. His 39-year leadership now serves as proof that power, once seized, rarely keeps its promises.