As President Museveni delivered the 2026 State of the Nation Address (Sona) on Thursday, highlighting government achievements and outlining priorities for the year ahead, many Ugandans were left reflecting on a simple but important question: Are they better off today than they were in June last year?
The annual address is intended to provide a snapshot of the country’s progress, covering areas such as the economy, infrastructure, security, education, health and wealth creation. Government officials often point to economic growth, road construction, electricity expansion, industrialisation and programmes such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) as evidence that Uganda is moving forward.
Yet for many citizens, the true measure of progress is not found in statistics or policy statements but in their ability to earn a living, feed their families, and educate their children and access essential services. Across towns and villages, responses to the question of whether life has improved over the past year are mixed. Datasets from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) are more conclusive. Using a basket of commodities that includes beef, rice, laundry soap, tilapia fresh, refined oil, tomatoes, onions, pineapple, green pepper, groundnuts, petrol and diesel, the statisticians indicate that one, on average, spent Shs81,866 in May 2025 compared to Shs87,474 in May 2026. The Shs5,608 is a telling difference, and looks set to shoot up when a new tax regime, widely believed to punish poor households, takes root in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026/2027.
In the doldrums
Mr Job Kiija, the associate director at Innovations for Democratic Engagement and Action (IDEA), told Weekend Monitor that ordinary Ugandans are not materially better off, as macroeconomic growth has failed to ease the household cost of living. While Ubos reports headline inflation stabilising at 3.2 percent as of May 2026, this national average conceals a severe domestic squeeze. Volatile global markets and surging fuel prices have triggered a painful ripple effect, driving up transport costs and food prices in major urban centres. ‘Despite the government’s celebration of a nominal GDP per capita of $1,278 (Shs4.7m), real disposable incomes remain stagnant or diminished due to critically high youth unemployment and an under-capitalised informal sector struggling to absorb new workers amid rising daily expenditures,’ Mr Kiija said.
The researcher noted that the translation of investments into everyday welfare has been weak and uneven, exposing a stark disconnect between state statistics and community livelihoods. ‘The Parish Development Model, though funded at Shs100m per parish annually, reaches only a fraction of eligible subsistence households due to administrative delays, low public awareness, and entrenched structural barriers. Both PDM and Emyooga funds are frequently undermined by local-level misappropriation, forcing the President to issue public warnings demanding refunds from corrupt officials,’ he observed.
Mr Kiija further noted that, similarly, flagship investments in road networks and the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) expansion, while impressive on paper, fail to address immediate crises such as unaffordable agricultural inputs, weak domestic market linkages, and the absence of direct local employment.
To convert macro-growth into micro-prosperity, he urged the government to shift focus from raw infrastructure expenditure toward human capital development and local economic resilience. ‘First, rather than simply distributing seed capital through PDM, the State should fund practical post-harvest storage facilities and value-addition equipment at the sub-county level, enabling smallholders to secure better prices,’ he said. The IDEA associate director said non-bureaucratic credit facilities and technical vocational training must be expanded to absorb the hundreds of thousands of unemployed university and secondary school graduates. Mr Kiija said immediate safety nets and targeted economic cushions should be established to shield low-income earners-particularly transit workers and urban informal vendors-from sudden global fuel-driven shocks.
On the right path?
Ubos’s latest consumer price index (CPI) print captures the pains that monthly year-on-year price increments have inflicted. The annual percentage change of food and non-alcoholic beverages, when May 2025 is juxtaposed with May 2026, is 1.6. Other increments in recreation, sport and culture (1.7 percent), education services (4.1 percent), restaurants and accommodation services (3.3 percent), insurance and financial services (12.6 percent), as well as personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods (2.2 percent) are just as punishing. In his latest Sona, President Museveni said while geopolitical factors are to blame for some of the woes, the inactions of some government functionaries have not helped matters. To cure this, Uganda’s President, since 1986, said the guiding principle during the 2026-2031 term will be ‘no more sleep.’ He will not tolerate ‘non-performers who want leadership for their own ego and personal interests.’
Mr Museveni added: ‘However, for people to participate in the vertical and horizontal integration of the economy of the country, they had to join the money economy first and move out of the traditional, pre-capitalist economy of working for ekidda kyoonka (working only for the stomach just subsistence).’
The Ugandan strongman said by 1986, milk production in Uganda was 200 million litres per annum. It is now 5.4 billion litres, saving $1.56b (Shs5.8 trillion) of imports and earning $285.4m (Shs1 trillion) in export earnings. ‘Uganda used to import tinned condensed milk from as far away as New Zealand, packed paper milk from Kenya, butter, cheese, yoghurt, powdered milk, etc. from Denmark, etc. Uganda is now a big exporter of all those products. That is our work. The people in the cattle corridor need to deepen their work by going away from Okusetura (free-range) to growing pasture and indoor feeding of cattle, goats and sheep,’ Mr Museveni further advised.
Beyond abstract figures
Mr Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo, a lecturer of economics at Makerere University, noted that Uganda’s macroeconomy has strengthened compared to last year. Real GDP growth rose to 6.4 percent in FY2025/2026, up from 6.3 percent the previous year. The current account deficit narrowed to $3.12b (Shs11.6 trillion), while gross reserves increased to $6.1b (Shs22.8 trillion). Inflation eased from 3.9 percent in June 2025 to 3.2 percent in May 2026. ‘These are genuine signs of stability,’ he noted. The scholar, however, hastened to add that stronger macroeconomic indicators do not automatically mean better household welfare. ‘GDP reflects output, not distribution. Inflation falling does not mean life is cheap. In fact, energy, fuel, and utilities inflation climbed to 9.1 percent in May 2026, compared to -0.2 percent a year earlier,’ he said, adding that households feel the economy through transport fares, electricity bills, school fees, medicine costs, and job security; not through abstract statistics.
Mr Twinoburyo pointed to labour market data to highlight the challenge. Labour-force participation stands at 50.9 percent, while the employment-to-population ratio is 44.7 percent. National unemployment is 12.2 percent, but youth unemployment is much higher at 17.9 percent. Informal employment outside agriculture accounts for 87.6 percent of jobs. Uganda is growing faster than it is formalising, leaving households only marginally less squeezed.
He acknowledged government achievements, such as the PDM transfers and expanded infrastructure. By June 2025, Shs3.3 trillion had been disbursed to 10,589 parishes, reaching 2.63 million beneficiaries. Roads, electricity generation, and water access have expanded. He, however, stressed that development should be judged by outcomes, not inputs.
A transfer is not a sustained income stream. A road is not a wage. A power line is not affordable electricity for a small business. Welfare data shows the gap clearly. In 2023/24, 16.1 percent of Ugandans-about seven million people-lived below the national lower poverty line. Rural poverty was 19 percent, compared to 10 percent in urban areas. The 2024 Multidimensional Poverty Index revealed that 53.1 percent of Ugandans are multidimensionally poor, with rural poverty at 61.1 percent versus 39.1 percent in towns. Deprivations in health insurance, sanitation, clean cooking energy, and education weigh heavily on households.
‘Uganda’s main problem is not growth itself, but weak transmission from growth to household welfare. The economy can expand while citizens remain trapped in insecure work, low-productivity agriculture, poor sanitation, fragile health protection, and weak schooling outcomes,’ Mr Twinoburyo said, adding that Uganda should change the national scorecard by measuring success through household income growth, enterprise survival, job quality, and regional poverty reduction, rather than focusing mainly on money disbursed or kilometres of road built. The academic stressed that job creation must become central to economic policy, since growth without decent work will continue to widen the gap between national statistics and daily life.
He advised the government to reduce household costs by tackling utility and fuel inflation and reconsidering tax measures that cut disposable incomes, because stability can still feel expensive for ordinary families. ‘Uganda should target multidimensional poverty directly by improving health protection, sanitation, clean cooking energy, and education retention, so that growth becomes visible in everyday homes,’ he advised.
Work to be done
On his part, Mr Kiija noted that President Museveni’s 2026 Sona glossed over systemic public service failures, governance deficits, and the critical issue of political transition. Uganda has never experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence, and by avoiding this reality, the speech missed an opportunity to lay down an inclusive democratic framework to prevent relapse into historical turmoil. ‘The address also ignored persistent crises of corruption, human rights abuses, and contested elections. To date, the Electoral Commission (EC) has failed to upload full, verifiable polling-station-level results from the last general elections.
No accountability was offered regarding citizens who went missing during past electoral cycles, nor was there a plan to stop ongoing unlawful abductions of opposition activists,’ said Mr Kiija. By failing to address these disappearances or the massive case backlog, Mr Kiija said the speech overlooked why Uganda’s prison system has exploded to 345 percent occupancy-housing more than 80,000 inmates in facilities built for just 23,104. Equally absent was a strategy for managing Uganda’s escalating domestic public debt, which continues to suffocate local business expansion. Looking ahead, Mr Kiija stressed that over the next 12 months, the state must prioritise institutional accountability, transition planning, and grassroots economic protection to ensure development delivers tangible benefits to all Ugandans.
‘Crucially, the government must foster dialogue and legislative frameworks that guarantee an inclusive, peaceful political transition to preserve long-term stability and unity. Beyond rhetoric, the executive must institutionalise aggressive prosecution and asset recovery targeting high-ranking officials who mismanage infrastructure and wealth funds.’ The researcher said the newly projected Shs78.2 trillion national budget set to be read next week should be recalibrated away from bloated political administrative allowances, redirecting resources into equipping regional referral hospitals and functional rural schools. He said the targeted urban relief packages-such as lower utility tariffs and micro-tax exemptions-must be implemented to protect urban workers disproportionately burdened by high transport and housing costs.
Positives
Dr Paddy Mugambe, a senior consultant in Finance at Uganda Management Institute (UMI), noted that from a macroeconomic perspective, Uganda is performing relatively well compared to 12 months ago. Growth remains positive, inflation has been contained, exports have expanded, and major infrastructure investments continue. ‘At the micro level, however, ordinary citizens judge economic performance through four practical questions: Do I have a job or reliable livelihood? Is my income increasing? Can I afford basic necessities? Are public services improving?’ he rhetorically asked.
He added: ‘For many Ugandans, the answer to most of these questions is still ‘No.’ This suggests that while Uganda may be stronger economically than a year ago, households have not experienced improvements significant enough to change their daily lives. The average Ugandan is marginally better off than in June 2025, but not dramatically so. Gains have been real but unevenly distributed across regions, sectors, and income groups.’ He said the government highlights economic growth, infrastructure development, and PDM as evidence of progress. ‘These initiatives have created opportunities, especially for households already positioned to participate in markets. Yet, their impact on nationwide living standards has been modest rather than transformational.
PDM, in particular, tends to favour survival needs over production, limiting its transformative potential. By contrast, infrastructure development is more inclusive and has greater potential to improve livelihoods through production,’ he said. Dr Mugambe emphasised that the priority should be turning economic growth into jobs and higher household incomes through broad, non-discriminatory interventions. Targeted programmes should remain limited, focusing only on the poorest households. Achieving this requires greater investment in labour-intensive sectors such as agro-processing, manufacturing, tourism, and digital services.
He further stressed the importance of strengthening education, technical skills development, agricultural productivity, and public service delivery. Equally critical is improving programme implementation and tackling corruption so that public investments reach intended beneficiaries. He said while macroeconomic growth is important, citizens ultimately measure progress by whether their incomes, livelihoods, and quality of life are improving.
Struggles abound
Mr Timothy Chemonges, the executive director of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), acknowledged that while Uganda has registered some progress, it is not yet strongly felt by many ordinary citizens. The economy is growing-with the World Bank estimating growth at 6.8 percent in the financial year 2024/2025-and inflation remains relatively controlled, with Ubos reporting 3.2 percent in May 2026. Yet, as Mr Chemonges noted, ‘people judge progress from the pocket.’ Many households continue to struggle with school fees, rent, transport, medical bills, low incomes, and limited jobs. National figures may look positive, but daily realities remain difficult.
The CEPA top honcho observed that infrastructure development has improved movement, trade, and market access, while the Parish Development Model (PDM) has provided some households with capital. Poverty has declined nationally from 20.3 percent in 2019/20 to 16.1 percent in 2023/24, according to Ubos. ‘Under the international poverty measure, the World Bank estimates poverty at 51.5 percent in the financial year 2024/25-showing that while growth is happening, it is not yet transforming household living standards quickly or broadly enough. Many Ugandans still face low incomes, limited jobs, high living costs, and weak access to markets and services,’ said Mr Chemonges.
Mr Chemonges stressed that the government should now focus less on announcing growth and more on making it visible in people’s homes. Priorities must include job creation, especially for youth; stronger implementation and monitoring of PDM; support for agriculture and small businesses; affordable health and education services; and serious action against corruption and waste. In his words, Ugandans need growth ‘that reduces pressure in the home, puts money in people’s pockets, and improves the services they use every day.’ Reflecting on the President’s address, the CEPA boss noted that while it highlighted progress in the economy, infrastructure, and wealth creation, it raised a fair question: after years of investment and promises, why are many Ugandans still struggling with basic costs of living?
The President blamed poor leadership, but Mr Chemonges argued that if corruption and underperformance have long been known, stronger accountability should already have been enforced. The speech was strong on achievements but weaker on accountability and the lived realities of ordinary Ugandans.
He said the government must directly address the cost of living, youth unemployment, corruption, poor service delivery, and gaps in health and education. It must also explain why, despite years of investment and wealth creation rhetoric, many households remain stuck in poverty or economic insecurity. For growth to be meaningful, it must translate into tangible improvements in household welfare- jobs, affordable services, and money in people’s pockets.