Uganda is at a pivotal moment in its development journey. Climate change is no longer a distant threat, it is a present and growing crisis that could undermine decades of progress. According to the World Bank’s Uganda Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), without decisive mitigation and adaptation strategies, Uganda could see its economic growth shrink by 3.1 percent by 2050, pushing over 600,000 people into poverty and triggering up to 12 million internal displacements.
The report further warns that heat stress alone could reduce labour productivity by 2.4 percent, while climate-related disasters threaten to damage 21 percent of the national electricity network and drive annual road maintenance costs to nearly $26m (Shs88.8b). These figures are not just projections they are a warning highlighting the economic toll of climate inaction. A 2023 report by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) paints an even grimmer picture.
It projects temperature increases of between 1.0°C and 3.1°C by the 2060s, leading to more frequent and severe droughts, floods, and landslides. Uganda’s predominantly rain-fed agriculture on which over 70 percent of the population depends is already feeling the strain. While average annual rainfall remains relatively stable, extreme precipitation events are disrupting planting and harvesting seasons, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. Social and economic vulnerabilities compound the crisis.
According to the Economic Policy Research centre (EPRC) at Makerere University, women and girls are disproportionately affected, with 80 percent of those displaced by extreme weather events being female facing heightened risks of poverty, violence and health complications. Climate change also jeopardizes Uganda’s growing trade integration, as agriculture-based exports face increasing risks from weather variability threatening both market access and export earnings.
A recent dialogue hosted by Makerere University’s Environment for Development Centre emphasised that climate smart agriculture must be backed by stronger extension services and evidence-based policy to safeguard Uganda’s agricultural backbone. In response, Uganda has taken commendable steps.
The National Climate Change (Climate Change Mechanisms) Regulations, 2025, gazetted by the National Environment Management Authority (Nema), establish frameworks for carbon markets, climate finance, and emissions monitoring. These mechanisms aim to attract investment in climate-resilient agriculture, renewable energy, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness offering a pathway to mobilize investment in climate resilient agriculture, renewable energy, and infrastructure. However, success depends on more than policy.
The World Bank CCDR emphasises the need for multisectoral coordination, public-private partnerships, and inclusive climate smart growth strategies that embed resilience across all economic sectors and prioritise vulnerable groups especially youth and low-income earners. Equally important is the need to enhance access to climate data and early warning systems to support timely and informed decision-making.
Uganda has the natural resources, political will, and international partnerships to lead a green transformation. But the window for action is narrowing. Climate change is not just an environment issue, it is a development challenge, a gender issue, and an economic imperative. By accelerating inclusive climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, Uganda can not only safeguard its development gains but also chart a sustainable and equitable path forward. The time to act is now.