The World Bank has said economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has maintained momentum amid heightened global policy uncertainty with the region’s growth being projected to reach 3.8 per cent in 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in 2024.
The report has been issued by the World Bank Africa Pulse, which gives an analysis of issues shaping Africa’s economic future produced twice a year. The October 2025 issue states that the 2025 growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.3 percentage point compared to the April 2025 figures.
The projected acceleration in Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2025 is underpinned by improved terms of trade across much of the region, contributing to currency stabilisation and, in some cases, appreciation.
However, on the other hand, the World Bank says despite recent growth, the region has not achieved the scale or inclusiveness needed to sharply reduce extreme poverty or improve the distribution of income. Public service delivery remains weak, and the broader economic environment has struggled to generate sufficient high-quality, well-paying jobs and opportunities for the population.
‘Over the next quarter century, Sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population will grow by more than 600 million,” said Dr Andrew Dabalen, World Bank Chief Economist for the Africa region.
He added: ‘The challenge will be matching this growing population with better jobs, given that only 24 percent of new workers today land wage-paying jobs. A structural shift toward more medium and large firms is essential to generate wage jobs at scale.’
The World Bank says the East African Community (EAC) exhibits the largest expansion in the subregion, at 4.8 percent in 2024, and it is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 6.7 percent in 2026-27. Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda are the countries with the largest expansions in the EAC.
For 2025, the World Bank says Uganda’s economy is expected to grow at 6.3, percent, Kenya, 4.5 percent, Tanzania 6.0 percent, Rwanda 7.1 percent, Burundi 4.6 percent, Democratic Republic of Congo 5.3 percent, while South Sudan is expected to see a negative growth of -23.8 percent.
In the Africa Pulse, the World Bank states that declining inflation in many countries has allowed for a gradual easing of monetary policy, boosting household purchasing power and creating space for further rate cuts. These favorable conditions are fueling a recovery in private consumption and investment.
However, it says ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts may continue to weigh on overall economic activity, moderating the pace of recovery in some economies.
Due to their relatively low trade exposure to the United States, Sub-Saharan African countries are well-positioned to weather the impact of higher US tariffs. Nevertheless, uncertainty around the implementation and duration of current trade measures remains elevated.
The World Bank explains that this lingering uncertainty, coupled with subdued global investor appetite and a tightening supply of external finance, could constrain growth prospects. Elevated risk of debt distress across many countries in the region leaves them vulnerable to external shocks, limiting their ability to respond effectively to global economic disruptions.
In per capita terms, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been insufficient to lead to significantly reduced extreme poverty or improved income distribution.
Real income per capita in the region is projected to grow at 1.3 percent in 2025, up from 1.0 percent in 2024, and expected to reach 1.9 percent by 2026-27. While this marks a gradual recovery from a decade of successive shocks, the rebound has yet to gain strong momentum.
After reaching a peak of 50 percent in 2024, the World Bank points out that poverty-measured at $3 per capita per day in 2021 international purchasing power parity-has been forecasted to drop to 48.4 percent in 2027. The total number of poor people in the region is expected to increase from 576 million in 2022 to 671 million in 2027.