Uganda is experiencing increasingly warm conditions in 2026, with temperatures across several parts of the country remaining above historical averages, raising concerns about the effects of prolonged heat on human health, agriculture, water resources and livelihoods.
As the latest UN climate summit, COP31, opened in Antalya, Turkey, this week, Uganda joined several other countries in reporting that it is on course for its hottest year on record.
According to general monthly temperature averages from the Department of Metrological Services (DMS), Uganda experienced hot and dry conditions during January and February, and warmer-than-normal temperatures recorded or anticipated in subsequent months. The changing weather patterns have renewed questions about the country’s preparedness to deal with climate-related risks.
Temperature estimates for January indicated daytime highs of between 29°C and 33°C in northern and savannah areas, while Kampala and parts of central Uganda experienced temperatures ranging between 18°C and 29°C. February continued with hot and dry conditions, with the estimated national average temperature reaching approximately 22.6°C.
During the March-May rainy season, Kampala and the central region experienced daytime highs of about 29°C and night-time lows of approximately 19°C. Gulu in northern Uganda recorded highs of around 31°C, while Arua in West Nile experienced temperatures of approximately 30°C.
In the June-August dry season, national monthly average temperatures remained around 21.2°C to 21.4°C, although regional variations persisted. The September-December period is also expected to experience warmer-than-average conditions in several parts of the country, according to seasonal climate projections.
However, meteorologists caution that seasonal forecasts and actual recorded temperatures are different measurements, and the country’s long-term warming trend must be established using historical observation data.
Mr Jackson Muhindo Rukara, Oxfam’s resilience and climate justice coordinator, says rising global temperatures are disrupting weather patterns worldwide, contributing to increasingly unpredictable rainfall and prolonged dry spells.
‘The world is continuously warming, and temperatures are not showing signs of reducing. This is disrupting weather patterns, including the timing and distribution of rainfall. We are increasingly experiencing a mixture of rainfall and prolonged dry spells, making it difficult for communities, particularly farmers, to plan their activities,’ Mr Muhindo says, adding that emissions from industrial activities and armed conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the use of bombs in Israel, could have adverse effects on the environment.
Extreme weather
Mr Muhindo calls for increased investment in the protection and restoration of natural ecosystems, particularly forests, wetlands and other environmentally sensitive areas, saying conservation was critical to mitigating the effects of climate change.
‘We need to invest generously in protecting natural ecosystems, including wetlands and forests. Conserving these resources is one of the important ways we can address the climate crisis. When you travel to dry areas such as Karamoja, you experience intense heat, which underscores the need to protect our natural environment,’ he adds.
Mr Henry Stanley Mbowa, a research and knowledge management expert at AidEnvironment, says scientific reports by the UN and World Bank indicate that drought patterns occur in cycles, with some studies pointing to recurring drought periods every 10 years.
‘Environmental degradation and human activities, including poor agricultural practices, were among the major factors contributing to climate change. The encroachment on wetlands and deforestation in some areas that were once covered by natural forests have lost much of their vegetation,’ he says.
Mr Mbowa cites Mabira Forest as an example of the importance of natural forests in regulating temperatures, explaining that its dense vegetation helps maintain a cooler environment. He also raises concern over the increasing use of pesticides and herbicides in farming, particularly in banana plantations, as well as poorly managed industrial activities that release gases and other pollutants into the atmosphere.
Mr Mbowa also highlights household energy use as another contributor, noting that reliance on charcoal and firewood for cooking increases pressure on forests and contributes to emissions. However, he says it was difficult to discourage the use of charcoal without providing affordable alternatives such as gas and electricity.
He, therefore, calls for stronger climate change adaptation measures, including promoting forestry, protecting natural ecosystems, improving waste management and encouraging sustainable agricultural and industrial practices.
The government has developed climate adaptation policies and strategies, but their implementation, financing and public awareness remain critical challenges.
Experts appeal to the Ministry of Health to strengthen public awareness about heat-related illnesses, and agricultural authorities to promote climate-resilient crop varieties, irrigation and improved farming practices.
Mr Muhindo questions why factories and other developments were still being allowed in environmentally-sensitive areas that the government had previously protected.
‘We cannot claim to be fighting climate change while allowing developments that destroy important natural ecosystems,’ he says.
Rain or shine…
According to the Ministry of Water and Environment’s weather update for November, high temperatures experienced across most parts of the country are expected to persist during dry spells but ease during periods of rainfall this month.
The ministry attributes the prevailing weather conditions partly to the influence of El Niño, alongside other climate drivers.
The ministry cautions that the rainfall and temperature forecasts require timely action to mitigate potential risks and take advantage of favourable weather conditions. It attributes the improvement in rainfall across most parts of the country to the influence of prevailing El Niño conditions over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, in combination with other climate drivers affecting the region’s weather patterns on weekly and monthly timescales.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Monday warned that 2027 could be the hottest on record, with a strong El Niño expected to bring further extreme heat. The warning came as world leaders gathered for COP31. This came as reports showed that the average surface temperature from January to September this year was about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels worldwide.
Mr Edwin Muhumuza, an environmental sustainability specialist, says Uganda, like much of sub-Saharan Africa, is experiencing significant shifts in rainfall patterns due to climate change, disrupting traditional agricultural seasons that farmers have long relied on.
‘Traditionally, our agricultural calendar was guided by predictable rainy and dry seasons. However, rising global temperatures, driven largely by greenhouse gas emissions, have disrupted atmospheric circulation systems, altering the timing, duration and intensity of rainfall,’ he says.
Vulnerable communities
Climate scientists have repeatedly linked rising global temperatures to human-induced climate change, particularly greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and changes in land use.
However, individual seasons and months can also be influenced by natural climate variability, including El Niño and La Niña conditions, ocean temperatures and regional atmospheric circulation.
Experts say it is important to distinguish between ordinary seasonal temperature fluctuations and long-term climate change, which is established through sustained observations over several decades.
Ms Jane Nalule, a peasant in Bulambuli District, says the rising temperatures have implications for communities whose livelihoods depend heavily on agriculture, particularly in rural areas where farmers rely on rain-fed production.
‘Prolonged heat can increase evaporation, reduce soil moisture and place crops under stress, especially when accompanied by delayed or unreliable rainfall. Livestock farmers are also vulnerable because excessive heat can affect animal health, feeding patterns, milk production and access to water,’ Ms Nalule says.
Ms Nalule is not alone. For millions of Ugandans who depend on agriculture, natural resources and outdoor economic activities, the question is no longer whether climate change is a concern, but how prepared the country is to cope with its consequences.
Beyond agriculture, prolonged exposure to high temperatures poses serious public health risks.
Health experts warn that excessive heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and potentially life-threatening heatstroke. Children, older persons, pregnant women and people with underlying health conditions are particularly vulnerable.
Ms Nalule says in the country where many households depend on crop production and livestock keeping, prolonged dry conditions could worsen existing vulnerabilities, particularly among smallholder farmers with limited irrigation facilities.
According to her, the situation also raises concerns about water availability as increased temperatures accelerate evaporation from water sources and increase household demand for water.
Mr Edwin Muhumuza, the founder and chief executive officer of Youth Go Green, says eastern Uganda-where Ms Nalule is based-is increasingly experiencing prolonged dry spells followed by intense and erratic rainfall, resulting in floods, landslides and waterlogging.
‘For rural communities that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, these weather changes are devastating. Crops fail due to drought or rot in flooded fields, while livestock suffer from heat stress and water scarcity. The result is reduced yields, rising food prices and deepening poverty, particularly among smallholder farmers who form the backbone of Uganda’s food system,’ he says.