The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development says despite the global fuel prices starting to drop after the US and Iran agreeing to sign a peace deal, Uganda’s pump prices will not be adjusted.
Dr Patricia Litho, the Director of Communication at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, said the global changes will not bring instant local cuts, noting that Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), through Vitol, purchased fuel at high prices.
‘Despite the global fuel prices starting to drop after the US and Iran agreeing to sign a peace deal, Uganda’s pump prices will not be adjusted accordingly because UNOC, through Vitol, purchased it at high prices,’ Dr Litho said.
UNOC imports fuel through a government-to-government deal with Vitol. Cargoes are bought months ahead, so current retail prices reflect stock secured when global rates were high.
Uganda has kept pump prices lower than Kenya and Rwanda for three months straight, even as global oil markets remain shaky. But energy experts warn the relief at the pump may soon run out.
It’s impossible to predict the future of oil prices. Several factors determine the movement of oil, but it ultimately boils down to supply and demand. Again, when threats of economic downturn, war, etc. are high, the oil trajectory can turn rapidly.
The next two months will be key. If crude stays lower and UNOC secures cheaper cargoes, Uganda may hold its edge. If costly Vitol stock continues to supply the market, prices could rise even as neighbours see relief.
Peter Ochieng’, a Regional Fuel Marketing Expert Downstream, agrees with the ministry, saying deregulation gives dealers flexibility but also creates a lag when world prices move.
‘The market will catch up with the earlier stock. When that happens, the advantage we have seen over Kenya and Rwanda could narrow or disappear,’ he said.
Data compiled by Ochieng shows Kampala’s highest pump prices as of June 15, 2026 were Shs6,499 for premium petrol and Shs6,599 for diesel. In Kenyan shilling terms, that is Kshs217 and Kshs220 respectively.
The numbers put Uganda ahead of Kenya and Rwanda but behind Tanzania. Nairobi’s revised prices effective June 15 show petrol at Kshs214.03 and diesel at Kshs 222.86. Kampala’s petrol is just Kshs2.60 higher than Nairobi’s, while diesel is Kshs2.89 cheaper.
Dar es Salaam remains the region’s cheapest. Tanzanian motorists pay the equivalent of Kshs195 for petrol and Kshs206 for diesel. Kigali is the priciest, with petrol at Kshs 260 and diesel at Kshs 259.
‘Uganda pump prices are deregulated. In Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania pump prices are regulated,’ Ochieng’ noted. His analysis used pump prices in Nairobi, Kigali, Dar es Salaam and Kampala, with Kampala’s figures based on the highest recorded rates.
Subsidies continue to influence the regional spread. Kenya applied a subsidy of Kshs 34.07 per litre on diesel. Tanzania gave a subsidy of Tzs 534.91, equal to Kshs 26.34, per litre on diesel. Uganda runs no direct pump subsidies.
Oil sold for $84.62 per barrel (using Brent as the benchmark, which we’ll get into momentarily). That’s 67 cents lower than yesterday and approximately an $8.63 rise over the past year.
Despite Uganda’s three-month streak as a low-cost market, Ochieng’ says the trend is fragile. ‘Much as Uganda’s pump prices have enjoyed low rates in the region for three months, this may soon not be the case,’ he said.
Using exchange rates of Kshs 1 to Shs 30, Kshs 1 to Tzs 21, and Kshs 1 to Rwf 11.3, Nairobi petrol is Shs 78 cheaper than Kampala’s highest price, while diesel is Shs 87 more expensive.
For now, motorists enjoy rare stability. The big question is how long it will last.