‘Shame upon the police, shame upon the military, what we are doing is legal. According to the Electoral Commission (EC) timetable, we are supposed to campaign here today. You are breaking the law. Shame upon you! Mr (Simon Mugenyi) Byabakama (EC Chairman), see what is happening. IGP Byakagaba (Abas), look at your men. Switch on your cameras and show the world the impunity and how this rogue regime operates.’
Of late, those word have become synonymous with opposition, National Unity Platform’s (NUP) presidential candidate. Robert Sentamu Kyagulanyi, who is better known as Bobi Wine, is a fighting man.
Almost all his campaign rallies are characterised by diversion to long dusty roads from planned venues, roadblocks, altercations, tear gas, live ammunition, beatings, injuries (including those occasioned on security agents supposedly by NUP supporters) and arrests of his supporters.
Those visiting the violence are often masked armed men in police and military uniforms in the company of stick-wielding lumpens. Their vehicles have concealed registration plates. In some districts, the bearers of the sticks have refused him to campaign in ‘their’ districts because he was not welcome.Lately, his sound systems have also been allegedly ‘arrested’ by the police and RDCs. There are apparently instructions not to hire out similar equipment to him in the districts lest it is destroyed. This makes it almost impossible for him to address his often-huge gatherings and naturally leads to immense frustration.
Last week I spoke to someone from ‘within the system.’ He was miffed that ‘Bobi Wine’s people’ never get called out (by people like me) for inciting violence.
That, right from the time videos of what the authorities call ‘illegal drilling’ at the NUP headquarters, every word and movement of Bobi Wine and his supporters has been taken note of, in light of incitement.
He showed me clips of supporters at the NUP headquarters chanting, ‘.we shall force them back to Rwanda!’ Others were of the Bobi Wine reminding his supporters that this is not just an election but a struggle, a war and that they are soldiers. He is also seen calling upon his supporters to act and behave as bayekera (guerrillas) on their way home as they leave a rally amidst gunshots and tear gas. Then another, where he says to the people at a rally not to fear the police and the army because the people outnumber them by far. He quickly added that these were not the products of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Mr Insider then went on a tirade about their dress code that mimics military attire, complete with boots and pips. That they even call each other ‘commander.’
‘You expect the government to sit back as this bankrupt fellow is endangering other people’s children by misleading them to fight the government? You want us to fold our hands and see all the gains made and the peace and progress attained, go up in smoke because of one man and his quest for power? You are waiting for tourists and investors to dry up, then you understand our predicament? Surely, no!’
It is apparent that Bobi Wine has been accused, charged, found guilty and profiled as a violent candidate by the people he is contesting against. His sentence, it seems, is not to be allowed to campaign by imposing violence on him. The same way a leopard that wants to eat its children starts by accusing them of smelling like sheep.
NRM and its handlers have cause to worry from their own history. Back in 1980, the current president and NRM leader, HE Yoweri Museveni, promised to go to the bush if the election was rigged.
Museveni, then about 36, was a fringe candidate but managed to attract a huge following to wage a war against the government, and he succeeded.
In this election, Bobi Wine is by no means a small number. At the age of about 43, he has a huge support base. It is concentrated in the populous Buganda area, where the NRA waged its war between 1981 and 1986.
It is also not certain that his popularity has not spread in other parts of the country over time. He has been barred from campaigning most of the time.
The youth who form over 70 percent of the population suffer similar problems of unemployment, and lack of access to social services like health, education and housing.
There is no real motivation to listen to the NRM candidate. It is difficult for Museveni and NRM to come up with a promise to solve in five years, what they have failed in four decades. No wonder many of the NRM rallies are preceded by distractions of music and what some call bad dancing by gyrating singers. The First Lady once complained about this at a rally.
Secondly, Museveni has physically mellowed. The guerrilla leader who would hold campaign rallies in almost every constituency is now reduced to almost one rally per district. Even then, supporters have been ferried to meet him in one place. The energy (and maybe for security reasons) to move long distances and make several stopovers has now notably reduced.
When compared, Bobi Wine is a spring chicken. He is flexible. He has been seen jogging distances while mingling with animated crowds, trying to catch a glimpse of him. He travels in the open on top of his car and reaches far more places and meets more people at stopovers than the President.
The NRM officials in the districts, plus the security apparatus, are uncomfortable with the kid from the ghetto getting all this mileage. It is done on a shoe string budget unlike the NRM with tonnes of money and the state machinery at its disposal.
It makes them look like failures that have not properly mobilised for the President in their areas, if Bobi Wine, leading a party that is barely five years old, without grassroot structures, amass all those huge crowds. They therefore stand between Muhammed and the mountain.
This ‘solution’ has the unintended consequence of sinking this country into violence. Imagine if a popular candidate is not allowed to campaign freely. If his call for supporters to follow Section 31(4) of the Presidential Elections Act, 2005 and keep 20 metres away from the voting table after voting to protect their vote is interpreted with asinine acuity as masquerading and mischief by a whole judge.
If those who break up rallies, tear posters, beat up and imprison supporters for no apparent reason, are not punished, people are led into temptation to lose confidence in civility and the whole electoral process that the NRM purports to safeguard and promote.
Of course, we should be alive to the fact that one of NRM’s strong points is the reliance on violence. It brought them to power and has kept them there.
Abraham Maslow said that ‘if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.’ Bobi Wine now looks like a nail. That is not a good thing.