As Europe doubles down on migration deals with Tunisia, Libya, and Rwanda-and Italy ships asylum seekers offshore to Albania while Britain clings to its Rwanda plan-Uganda is betting on a different answer.
Each of these European policies speaks to the same fear: that Africa’s young people, without economic pathways at home, will head north. Uganda sits at the heart of this tension. More than half its population is under 18, and another 22.7 percent are aged 18-30, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics.
By 2050, the population is projected to nearly double to 86.5 million. Without jobs, this ‘youth bulge’ risks spilling across borders-feeding Europe’s migration crisis and fueling instability in East Africa.
‘Many youths still get lured onto risky migration routes,’ warned State Minister for Labour Esther Anyakun, noting that of the more than 500,000 Ugandans working in the Middle East, barely half migrated using regular channels.
At the launch of Uganda’s five-year migration governance plan, government representatives described the country as a ‘regional epicentre for migration-a nexus where people migrate to, through, and from.’ Recently, the Cabinet also approved Uganda’s first National Migration Policy (2024), calling it a framework to ‘harness migration for development while minimising the risks of irregular migration.’
It is against this backdrop that policymakers, employers, and civil society gathered in Kampala on September 17 for the launch of Africa Youth Pathways, Resilience and Systems Change (AYPReS)-a and the Partnership for African Social and Governance Research (PASGR).
The program’s target is ambitious: move 30 million Africans, 70 percent women, into dignified work by 2030. In Uganda, one of the first proving grounds, the government has also earmarked Shs5 billion for a Graduate Volunteer Scheme and Shs19.48 billion to revamp skilling centers in the 2024/25 budget.
Making policy stick
Many think-tanks about the youths do believe that Uganda’s jobs crisis isn’t about a lack of ideas but that most ideas never move from paper to practice.
The argument here is that policies often arrive too late, miss political timing, or collapse under budget shortfalls, leaving evidence buried in reports while unemployment festers.
Think tanks like the PASGR argue the answer is the Utafiti Sera ‘research-to-policy’ house-less an academic hub than a pressure valve between evidence and power.
The model maps influence, convenes policymakers early, and pushes research into live debates before the window closes. In Kenya, a similar house helped shape the 2023 Social Protection Act, guided reforms in university financing, and brought agriculture and health evidence into cabinet decisions.
‘The lesson,’ says Rosebella Apollo, a programme officer in research and policy at PASGR, ‘is that evidence changes policy when it’s co-created, politically legible, and timed to the window of opportunity.’ Prof. Paul Bukuluki, a social work researcher and lecturer at Makerere University, warns that evidence without fiscal backing is ‘like planting seeds on a rock.’
Mondo Kyateka, the Assistant Commissioner for Youth and Children’s Affairs at the Labour and Gender Ministry, cautions that if fertility and youth joblessness aren’t addressed urgently, ‘the system breaks down.’ Both argue that the real test is not producing research but wiring it into budgets, protections, and working programs that blunt demographic pressure. That shows the problem is structural and the solution could be systemic.
Skills that work
Uganda’s education system has long churned out certificates without the skills employers need. The result has been many graduates armed with diplomas but no work-readiness. Government data estimates that youth aged 18-30 account for between 64 and 70 percent of the unemployed.
The government is now trying to fix the mismatch. It is rolling out competency-based technical and vocational education (TVET), introducing micro-credentials, recognizing prior learning (critical for refugees without papers), and making workplace placements mandatory to bridge classrooms with industry. Employers echo that view.
‘Youth need action, preparedness, resilience,’ says Evelyn Kisakye of the Federation of Uganda Employers, which is running a Work Readiness program with Enabel to channel graduates into agriculture, tourism, and the green economy. ‘Opportunities exist, but they reward those who show up ready.’
If Uganda succeeds in aligning skills, demand, and social protection, it won’t just create jobs-it could reshape the global migration story. If it fails, Europe’s border walls may prove too thin to hold back the tide.