Even as former president Goodluck Jonathan is yet to speak about his intention to run for the presidency in 2027, speculations that he will run are rife.
Rather than attenuate, such projections have fuelled further debate about the former president, while his continued silence over the matter has served to heighten the suspicion that he is considering running for the position.
The projections appear even more probable due to recent happenings around the current president, which include the fact that his interactions with political parties have increased, his public appearances have also multiplied, while his close associates have been unusually upbeat about his chances of winning should he decide to contest.
Hitherto, the 2027 projections had centred around the three major presidential candidates that contested the 2023 elections: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP; Peter Obi of the Labour Party; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP. Former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, had also been factored in, given his renewed interest.
There are, however, strong indications that the former president is making serious consultations on the possibility of running for the office. Only last week, the former president paid a visit to his long-time political associate, former Senate President David Mark, who is now the national chairman of the African Democratic Party (ADC), and had lengthy discussions believed not to be unrelated to the former’s intention to run.
This week, former minister for information, Prof. Jerry Gana, who is a stalwart of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), also came out to say point-blank that Jonathan would contest the 2027 election. Speaking to journalists shortly after a PDP congress in Minna, Niger State, Gana said Nigerians had experienced two other leaders after Jonathan and were now yearning for his return.
‘I can confirm that Goodluck Ebele Jonathan will contest the presidential election in 2027 as PDP candidate, and we should be prepared to vote for him to return as president again,’ he added.
There was also an event to celebrate the ‘good qualities’ of the former president slated for the Independence Day, which was, however, put off due to what the organisers described as ‘pressure from outside.’
The much-advertised stage play entitled The Patriot was to celebrate the patriotism and statesmanship of former president Jonathan. Posters, billboards, and clips on various social media platforms announcing the staging of the play with images of former president Jonathan conspicuously on them were placed at strategic points in Abuja and shared across various media platforms.
As many turned out at the venue to watch the play as advertised, the producer, Patrick Otoro, came on stage to explain that it would no longer be staged and had been replaced with another one titled Our Yard Our Bond. He explained that shortly after the adverts for The Patriot went out, they received several calls alleging that they were staging it to campaign for Jonathan.
Though he did not say where the calls were coming from, he said they made it clear that it was not yet time for campaigns.
‘We got calls that we were campaigning for Jonathan. That was not our intention. No, we’re not campaigning. We don’t belong to any political party. We just wanted to honour him for making that call,’ he said.
Among the dignitaries that turned up at the event were the former minister of information and PDP chieftain, Prof. Jerry Gana, and former secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha.
On Friday, the former president was also at the presentation of a book, Nigeria’s Journey and the Boko Haram Conundrum, authored by a former chief of defence staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd).
Analysts said if the former president is not interested in contesting in 2027, he would have made that clear by now instead of keeping people guessing.
Presidency, PDP worried
In a shocking development, the presidency did not wait for Jonathan to declare before responding to Prof. Gana. Special Adviser to the president on information and strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, described the comment by Gana as an absurdity.
He said Gana even deluded himself, asserting that the former president would defeat President Tinubu to reclaim power after 12 years.
He added: ‘However, we should caution former president Jonathan to be wary of the PDP sugar-coated cheerleaders. Politicians of Jerry Gana’s ilk merely want to lure him into the race to satisfy their personal, political, religious, and ethnic interests. They will abandon him midstream, as they did in 2015, and leave Gentleman Jonathan in the lurch.’
The National Working Committee of the PDP also joined the fray, saying Gana does not have the authority of the party to disclose that former president Goodluck Jonathan would become its presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections.
National Publicity Secretary of the party, Debo Ologunagba, said the party does not lack presidential materials for the next general election, as there are competent and performing governors from the South that could easily become its presidential candidate, if they so desired.
65 years of recycling leadership
A peep into Nigeria’s political history shows that if former president Goodluck Jonathan succumbs to pressure and agrees to run for the presidency in 2027, he will be counted as the fifth Nigerian former ruler who lost power and tried to stage a comeback.
The others are Nnamdi Azikiwe, Yakubu Gowon, Muhammadu Buhari, and Ibrahim Babangida. Impliedly, it is only Shehu Shagari, Ernest Shonekan, and Abdulsalami Abubakar that did not make an attempt to return after leaving office.
Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was president during the 1st Republic, tried both in 1979 and 1983 to come back. Gowon, who was overthrown in 1975, made an attempt for the presidency under Option A4 but was defeated at the primary.
Olusegun Obasanjo was not overthrown, but he still contested election in 1999, won, and stayed in office for eight years as president.
Shehu Shagari, who was overthrown after winning a second term in 1983, though lived till 2018 seeing through six elections after his overthrow, never made any attempt to return to the presidency. But his vice president, Alex Ekwueme, did in 1999 and 2003.
Muhammadu Buhari, who overthrew Shagari but was sacked by his friends and colleagues in 1985, joined politics and contested in 2003, 2007, and 2011 before he won in 2015.
Ibrahim Babangida, who overthrew Buhari in 1985, also tried to stage a comeback through democratic means in 2011 but was defeated at the primary.
Ernest Shonekan, who lived till 2022 to the ripe age of 82, is among the few that showed no interest in returning to power. Abdulsalami Abubakar was not overthrown but, unlike Obasanjo, did not attempt to come back.
With the majority of those who left their seats making attempts and sometimes succeeding in coming back, analysts say it is likely that Jonathan will succumb to pressure.
Nigerians and nostalgia for former leaders
Some analysts say Nigerians prefer their former leaders because they believe the past had always been better. Prof. Murtala Muhammad of the Department of History and International Studies, Northwest University, Kano, said Nigerians frequently believe that the former government is superior to the current one.
He said: ‘According to social psychology, when people are faced with the harsher realities of the present, collective memory and nostalgia frequently exaggerate the apparent stability or modest accomplishments of previous governments. Although this phenomenon is not exclusive to Nigeria, the cyclical nature of governance failures makes it more severe.
‘People selectively ignore the very criticisms they once made of those same administrations when comparing their current struggles with selective memories of the past. The result is a vicious cycle of disappointment in which the government of the past is recast as the lesser of two evils and the government of today is vilified.
‘Every administration has a history of overpromising and under delivering, which has led to a drop in living standards, increased insecurity, and a worsening of poverty. Nigerians turn to the relative stability or modest growth of past regimes when promises of reform and transformation fall flat due to corruption, poor management, or inconsistent policies. Thus, the idea that ‘the past was better’ reflects both psychological nostalgia and the instilling lack of trust in governance.
‘By portraying current administrations as incompetent and former ones in gentler terms after they leave office, the media and public debate reinforce these narratives,’ he added.
Those who are in support of Jonathan say he is better poised to win the votes in the North because he is statutorily bound to do only one term, and that if the South-South and the South-East support him, then he is good to win.
But not all are in support of Jonathan’s return. Chief Asara A. Asara, a close political ally of the former president, said the optics are not in his favour.
‘He is a global icon, so as far as I’m concerned, that is enough. He has built a name for himself, so except he has forgotten something in the Villa, in my own personal opinion, I don’t see anything that he is going there to do because, even the economy today, the Nigeria situation today is worse than when he was there. He is not a small boy, also he has read, so he is supposed to look at the indices, both political, economic, and otherwise. Most of his supporters have left, most of his supporters cannot even support him again, so why are you coming to put the reputation you have built over the years, because a few groups of people who want to benefit from your presidency tell you go and run, you will win.’
Analysts say there is also the challenge of political platform, as the PDP where the former president belongs is experiencing turmoil that may not favour his contesting on that platform. All the major opposition parties already have a surfeit of aspirants who may not want to step down for the former president.
Legal issue
There’s also the legal issue which is being debated on his eligibility to contest in 2027, given that he had taken oath for the office twice.
Barrister Ugochukwu Osuagwu, when contacted, said Jonathan is not constitutionally eligible to contest the 2027 presidential election, having taken the oath of office on two previous occasions. He said the constitutional amendment catches up with him because he had taken the oath twice, adding that the recent judgement of a high court in Bayelsa, clearing the way for the former president to contest, had not been tested at the appellate courts.
‘The essence of the amendment is to prevent somebody who had taken the oath twice in the past, so the amendment is both retroactive and prospective.
‘Aside arguments on taking oath twice, Jonathan has ruled for six years; if he contests and wins, he will now rule for 10 years,’ he added.
A former Attorney General of Ekiti State, Dayo Akinlaja (SAN), said he is of the view that Jonathan is entitled to contest the 2027 presidential election, as the constitutional amendment that forbids somebody from being sworn in more than two times does not have a retroactive effect.
‘The constitution is prospective, not retrospective,’ he said.
‘The Ondo State Governor (Lucky Aiyedatiwa), who was sworn in on December 27, 2023, cannot do another term now because the constitutional amendment was already in operation when he was completing his boss’s term,’ he said.