Nigeria’s political scene in 2025 is a dramatic stage where the intense pre-2027 election maneuvering often overshadows the serious business of governance, creating a spectacle ripe for comical analysis. The opposition is attempting a ‘super-team-up’ that resembles a poorly coordinated Kannywood blockbuster, while the government chases political mirages, all as the populace grapples with a relentless cost-of-living crisis.
The political arena is dominated by alignments and re-alignments for the 2027 presidential elections. Here’s a look at the main actors and their storylines:
‘Super Alliance’ that can’t super-size: The main opposition parties-PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP-are trying to form a coalition to challenge the ruling APC. However, internal divisions make this effort look like trying to build a mansion with crumbling bricks. The alliance is so fractured that only some factions are likely to join forces, creating a ‘political Frankenstein’s monster’ that is far from formidable. The central comedy revolves around the two leading opposition figures, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, who are stuck in a classic ‘who will be the oga at the top’ standoff, making any meaningful union unlikely.
The defection derby: In a classic display of ‘if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em,’ lawmakers from the struggling opposition parties are expected to defect to the ruling APC in a rush. The Labour Party is projected to be the biggest loser, potentially going into the 2027 elections with less than half the National Assembly seats it won in 2023. This political migration is a surefire way to further weaken an already disorganized opposition. The Governor Fubara saga: The political crisis in Rivers State surrounding Governor Siminalayi Fubara provides its own dramatic subplot. According to a close personal friend from Rivers, the chances of a second impeachment before the end of 2025 is said to be very high, promising more legal battles and political intrigue that could escalate into localized unrest.
Chasing the elusive 25%: From a strategic standpoint, one of the most amusing plots is the alleged obsession of President Tinubu’s camp with winning 25% of the vote in the South-East. A satirical commentary aptly compares this to ‘expecting a Kannywood actor to win an Oscar because he received an endorsement from his mai-shayi joint pals.’ The piece argues that after the 2023 presidential results, where the APC managed only 4% of the vote in the region, this hustle is like ‘trying to woo someone who has clearly made up their mind to give out his daughter’s hand to someone.’ The author suggests that focusing on tangible governance would be a more fruitful strategy than chasing elite endorsements that don’t translate to votes.
Amidst the political chess game, the nawaos and realities of governance and the economy present their own ironic twists:
The ‘official’ vs ‘unofficial’ health bulletin: One of the biggest open secrets is the state of President Tinubu’s health. It’s common knowledge he is unwell and frequently travels abroad for treatment, but the nature of his illness remains unclear. The comical element is the refusal to formally hand over power to the Vice President during these absences, creating a perpetual state of ‘he’s in charge. but is he really?’
The running mate tango: Tensions are simmering between President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. The 2023 ‘Muslim-Muslim ticket’ was a calculated move to appeal to voters in the North. However, with Tinubu’s popularity waning in the region due to economic policies, there’s talk he might ditch Shettima for a Christian running mate from the North in 2027. This has set the stage for a classic political drama of loyalty and betrayal, increasing tensions at the highest level of government.
The INEC chair musical chairs: President Tinubu is expected to appoint a new Chairman of INEC in November 2025. The expectation is that he will appoint someone loyal from the Southwest, ensuring a friendly umpire for the 2027 elections. The joke is that efforts to amend the Electoral Act are expected to drag on, resulting in only token changes that won’t fundamentally alter how elections are conducted. It seems the more things change, the more they stay the same.
While the politicians play their games, the reality for everyday Nigerians is no laughing matter, though the government’s responses can sometimes seem like a dark comedy.
A parade of crises: The country is grappling with severe security challenges, including bandit attacks in the Northwest, separatist agitations in the Southeast, and the persistent Boko Haram conflict in the Northeast. The security forces have also been accused of human rights abuses, including responding to protests with violence and making arrests under the Cybercrimes Act to crack down on critics and journalists.
The economy and the ‘Jet’ set: The country is facing its worst cost-of-living crisis in 30 years, with high inflation pushing many deeper into poverty. In a move that sparked public outrage, the government’s 2024 spending priorities included the purchase of a new presidential jet, unveiled in August. The image of a government buying a luxury jet while its citizens struggle to eat is a satire goldmine, highlighting a stark disconnect.
But the curtain hasn’t fallen yet.
In the grand Kannywood production that is Nigerian politics, 2025 is the season of the prequel. setting the stage for the 2027 blockbuster. The political manoeuvring, defections, and alliance-building provide endless material for a comical, if somewhat cynical, analysis.
As one commentator wisely noted, the real solution isn’t in chasing elusive endorsements but in ‘governance. If by 2027, Nigerians across all regions can point to tangible improvements in their daily lives. then even the most skeptical voters will reconsider their stance.’ For now, the show goes on, and all the public can do is watch, laugh, and hope for a better script in the next season.
Will the opposition ever unite? Will the chase for the South-East vote prove fruitful? Stay tuned for the next episode of Nigeria’s political melodrama. It’s going to be a blockbuster. or your money.