China’s PV industry expects 238 GW to 287 GW of domestic capacity additions in 2026 as it pivots away from volumeled growth after a loss-making year driven by overcapacity and sharp price declines.
The shift follows rapid expansion in 2021-25 that lifted cumulative capacity above 1.2 TW, annual additions beyond 300 GW and exports over $180 billion.
At an industry seminar hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) on Feb. 5, honorary adviser Wang Bohua delivered a keynote reviewing the sector’s ’14th Five-Year Plan’ cycle (2021-25) and outlining expectations for 2026-30. Looking to 2026-2030, Wang projected average annual global PV additions of 725 GW to 870 GW, and China additions of 238 GW to 287 GW.
He argued the next cycle will hinge on curbing ‘malign’ price competition, accelerating low- or no-silver pathways and perovskitetandem industrialisation, and pushing manufacturing towards smarter, greener, and more integrated models.
He also noted China will end export tax rebates for PV products from April 1, 2026, a move he framed as intensifying the push from volume growth to quality and value.