Weeks back, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the final list of candidates qualified to contest Senate seats in the 2027 general elections as submitted by the 18 political parties participating in the electioneering, after vetting. What were some of the takeaways?
A total of 1,301 candidates across the political parties are vying to occupy the 109 available seats in the Red Chamber of the Nigerian National Assembly. Viewed closely, that comes to between 11 and 12 candidates vying for each of the 109 seats spread across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The INEC list, except for the one or two windows provided by the Electoral Act, 2026 for possible alterations, is a Fait accompli, a sealing that may not be reopened, going to the polls. It means even for sitting senators in the current 10th Senate, who wish to return in 2027, but whose names are not on the list, it’s farewell.
The elections (Presidential and National Assembly) are fixed for January 16, 2027, less than four months away. From the INEC list, at least 52 of the serving senators are not listed, for re-election an indication that they will not contest the elections, unless their parties explore the aforementioned windows.
Furthermore, not all the 57 of the serving senators who made the list have the guarantee of winning the polls in January, implying that the turnover in the 11th Assembly will increase after the number of the losers have been added to the 52, who will not contest the poll at all.
Section 31 of the Electoral Act 2026, dealing with withdrawal of candidates, states: ‘A candidate may withdraw his candidature by notice in writing signed by him together with a sworn affidavit delivered personally by the candidate to the political party that nominated him for the election and the political party shall convey such withdrawal and the sworn affidavit to the Commission not later than 90 days to the election.’
The related provision on replacement is Section 33, which provides:
‘A political party shall not be allowed to change or substitute its candidate whose name has been submitted under Section 29 of this Act, except in the case of death or withdrawal by the candidate…’
Thus, the 90-day rule in Section 31 concerns the deadline for transmitting a candidate’s withdrawal and sworn affidavit to INEC. Section 33 then permits substitution only where the candidate had died or withdrawn, subject to the conditions that follow in that section.
The Act separately requires INEC to publish the full names and addresses of all candidates standing nominated at least 60 days before election day under Section 32(1).
The Presidential and National Assembly polls will be held on January 16, 2027 and still give political parties the window to make amendments, replacement, withdrawal of candidates as the case may be. It’s about the only opportunity left for the 52 senators not listed by INEC to rekindle their hopes of participating in the elections and returning next year, else their fate has been sealed.
Let’s clarify here that some senators won’t be returning not necessarily because they failed to secure tickets but for the reason that they are aspiring for other offices, especially the governorship seat of their states.
However, the majority won’t be returning because having lost their primaries, their efforts to secure tickets on platforms other than their original political parties also fell flat, leaving them with no choices but to lick their wounds. In some cases too, senators simply stepped down to avoid a clash with their governors who had indicated interest to take over their seats and had gone ahead to pick the tickets. They know they will be fighting a losing battle by attempting to swim against the tide!
Cases that come to mind
In Ogun State for instance, the Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, Senator Ademola Solomon Olamilekan, will exit the Senate, having secured the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Whatever happens in January, Olamilekan can only go to the Ogun State Government House in May 2027, if he wins the governorship seat, not the Senate.
In the same Ogun State, former governor Gbenga Daniel won’t return for the Ogun-East seat because governor Dapo Abiodun will contest the poll in Daniel’s place, having picked the ticket of the APC for the seat.
In Nasarawa State, a former chairman of the Senate Committee on Public Accounts (SPAC), Senator Aliyu Wadada, is gunning for the governorship in 2027, having won the APC’s ticket.
In Imo State, the chairman, Senate Committee on Capital Market, Senator Osita Izunaso’s Imo-West ticket was ceded to governor Hope Uzodinma, while a similar situation played out in Yobe and Gombe States, among others, where sitting governors took over the Senate tickets from the present occupants.
As for Sokoto state, former governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, who is among the 52 outgoing senators won’t return because the former Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential aspirant stepped down for a young contestant in a power-sharing understanding of his current political party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
However, the list also shows that in some states, all three current senators secured tickets and have hopes of returning in 2027 among the 57on the INEC list.
In Lagos State, Senator Adetokumbo Abiru (Lagos-East); Senator Adebule Idiat Oluranti (Lagos-West); and Senator Sanni Eshilokun (Lagos-Central) have return tickets and chances of being part of the 11th Assembly.
In Ekiti, the Senate Leader, Senator Opeyemi Bamidele (Ekiti-Central); the Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Senator Yemi Adaramodu (Ekiti-South); and Senator Fasuyi Cyril Oluwole (Ekiti-North)- all have return tickets.
The story is not different in the Senate President’s (Godswill Akpabio) home state, Akwa Ibom, where Akpabio (Akwa Ibom North-West); Senator Aniekan Bassey (Akwa-Ibom North-East); and Senator Ekong Sampson (Akwa Ibom-South) also have return tickets.
All three senators in Borno State, including Mohammed Ali Ndume, are among the 57 serving lawmakers shortlisted by INEC for the 2027 elections.
How will the turnover in 2027 compare?
It’s still unclear how the final turnover figure will tally in 2027 after the polls. What has been established is that at least 57 serving senators will contest the polls but there is no guarantee that all of them will win.
In the 7th Assembly (2011-2015), about 76 senators failed to return to the 8th Assembly (2015-2019), representing the highest turnover in recent years. In the 8th Assembly, 41 senators did not return to the 9th Assembly (2019-2023), while in the current 10th Assembly, 55 senators couldn’t make it from the 9th Assembly.
With 57 senators qualified to contest the elections for the 11th Assembly, the scenario confirms the consistency of high turnover of senators over time, though there is uncertainty over whether the 10th Assembly will record the heaviest losses until after the electioneering.
Observers blame the unfolding on reported manipulation, scheming and greed orchestrated by powerful and influential forces across the country, added to the unimpressive performance of many senators, who may not return, especially in districts where the electorate actually wield the power to determine their fate.
According to a Political Analyst, Dr Samuel Magdugu, one major factor that worked against some senators this season was the reported ‘manipulation’ of the process leading to the primaries by state governors in particular.
‘I think the idea of consensus, which was adopted in most of the instances, was deliberately planned to scheme a lot of contestants out.
‘Where you had governors participating and breathing down on party faithful to decide on who should take the ticket, the fate of those not in their good books was long decided’, Magdugu remarked.
He holds the view that political parties must be built and strengthened as organisations on their own to be able to withstand pressure or ‘control by money-bag politicians as we see happening today.’
On his part, Alhaji Lawan Ibrahim, a grassroots politician, castigates the current crop of senators for being ‘yes men’ to the Executive amid the crippling hunger, insecurity and general hardship in the country.
‘Of course, there are constituencies and senatorial districts where the people decide the fate of the candidates. The performance, to tell the truth, has been low in many states’, he said.
He spoke more: ‘But, what do you hear daily? These same lawmakers keep praise-singing the excesses of the system that has unleashed this suffering on the people. It didn’t come as a surprise that they would be thrown out.’
In short, the INEC list and the new Electoral Act together signal a likely reshaping of the Red Chamber in 2027: with at least 52 incumbents excluded from the ballot and many more facing unpredictable contests, the 11th Senate looks set for significant turnover.
Whether driven by governors’ influence, poor performance, or ambitions for other offices, the huge turnover reflects deeper strains in party structures and voter impatience. This will leave the electorate and the political elite to reckon with a Senate whose composition and mandate may change markedly.