IKE a drama or movie in which the audience thinks the curtain has finally fallen, only for the actors to return to the stage for another unexpected act, the crisis in the Edo State House of Assembly has refused to end. What appeared to be the final chapter in the saga, with the resignation of the Speaker, Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku, on August 17, has suddenly become another dramatic episode, with the Assembly declaring that he did not resign after all, but was impeached.
It is a situation akin to a football match in which the referee had blown the final whistle, and the players were headed to the tunnel, only for the official to suddenly reverse himself and order a restart. The unfolding scenario is what stakeholders say has implications for Governor Okpebholo’s second-term aspiration in 2028 and other political calculations. To understand the latest development, however, the crisis must be viewed against the background of the political realignment that has taken place in Edo since the September 2024 governorship election. Agbebaku became Speaker in June 2023 on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at a time when the PDP enjoyed considerable influence in the 24-member Assembly.
The political equation changed dramatically after the APC won the governorship election. In March 2025, four lawmakers defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), giving the party 13 members against the PDP’s 11. Agbebaku himself later defected from the PDP to the APC in May 2025.
His defection enabled him to remain within the ruling political structure, but it did not eliminate the political opposition to his continued occupation of the Speaker’s seat. Indeed, calls for his removal had surfaced earlier, particularly among some APC stakeholders who wanted an APC lawmaker from Edo North to occupy the position.
There were already indications that Agbebaku’s political position was becoming vulnerable, as leaders of Owan West were said to have insisted in May that he would not receive an automatic third term ticket. If sustained, it would mean that Agbebaku’s political troubles did not begin with his removal from the speakership.
Agbebaku’s resignation
Agbebaku announced his resignation on August 17, 2026, and the lawmakers subsequently elected Yekini Idaiye as Speaker, giving the impression that the turbulent leadership crisis had finally been resolved. While the resignation appeared to have settled the leadership crisis, paving the way for the emergence of Rt. Hon. Yekini Idaiye as the new Speaker. Eight days later, further rumblings were said to have led to the rewriting of the political scoreboard as the assembly drama took a fresh turn when the lawmakers formally impeached Agbebaku as Speaker.
The lawmakers said that Agbebaku was impeached because he had been served an impeachment notice weeks earlier and that 17 of the 24 lawmakers had endorsed his removal. In effect, the House replaced the narrative of a voluntary exit with that of a forced political departure.
The new leadership of the House insisted that Agbebaku’s exit should not be recorded as a resignation, arguing that he had been served an impeachment notice weeks earlier.
Idaiye bluntly told the house that the former Speaker ‘was impeached and did not resign.’
As the drama played out, the impeachment motion was moved by the Majority Leader, Sunny Ojiezele, and seconded by the member representing Etsako Central Constituency, Ahmed Waziri. Idaiye also directed the former Speaker to return all government property in his possession, warning that security agencies could be invited to enforce the directive should he fail to comply. The immediate political question is therefore no longer simply why Agbebaku resigned, but why the new assembly leadership went ahead to impeach him.
Why The House insists on impeachment
The distinction between impeachment and resignation is well known in political circles. For politicians, one amounts to a peaceful exit, while the other refers to a chaotic removal, which could even carry legal implications.
Why Yekini Idaiye?
Sources said that the emergence of Hon. Idaiye is a deft political calculation that goes deeply into the matter of political balance in the assembly and the politics of the state. With Idaiye, a third-term lawmaker from Akoko-Edo Local Government Area in Edo North, a balance was said to have been struck. Governor Okpebholo is from Edo Central, while Idaiye is from Edo North.
In a state where political calculations often take into account the interests of Edo South, Edo Central and Edo North, that balance is significant.
Idaiye’s emergence therefore goes beyond the replacement of one Speaker with another. It creates a political arrangement in which the governor and the Speaker come from two different senatorial districts, while giving Edo North control of one of the most influential political offices in the state. Sources said that such calculation could become increasingly important in the march towards the 2028 governorship contest.
What does it mean for Governor Okpebholo?
Though there is no evidence out there to indicate that Governor Monday Okpebholo orchestrated Agbebaku’s removal, indications among a class of political analysts are that a man popularly referred to in the public space as the ‘de facto Governor of the state’ played some roles in the development in the assembly. Incidentally, the governor appears to be the immediate political beneficiary of the new arrangement.
Following Idaiye’s emergence, Okpebholo called for peace, dialogue, transparency and inclusiveness, urging lawmakers to resolve their disagreements internally. Idaiye, meanwhile, pledged the Assembly’s cooperation with the governor.
Such a relationship could make it easier for the administration to pursue legislation, budgets, appointments and other programmes requiring legislative approval.
Who gains, who loses?
Agbebaku is the obvious immediate loser. He has lost the Speakership and now faces an investigation into allegations surrounding his administration of the House. But his political career is not necessarily over.
He remains the lawmaker representing Owan West and an APC politician. His ability to remain politically relevant will depend largely on the outcome of the investigation, his relationship with the APC leadership, and his grassroots support.
For Governor Monday Okpebholo, the development presents an opportunity to work with a new Assembly leadership For the APC, it represents another stage in its consolidation of the political structures of the state.
For Edo North, Idaiye’s emergence provides a stronger institutional foothold in the state’s political architecture.
The 2027 connection
The next Edo governorship election is not due in 2027. Governor Okpebholo was elected in September 2024, meaning the next governorship election is expected in 2028
But 2027 is still politically critical. The presidential, National Assembly, and State House of Assembly elections will determine the political strength of the major parties and the individuals who control key political structures ahead of 2028.
Governor Okpebholo has already placed considerable emphasis on the 2027 elections, including his ambition for Edo to deliver substantial votes – 3.5 million – to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
He has also urged members of the new Assembly leadership to take their constituencies seriously as the next elections approach.
The hidden battlefield: 2027 assembly elections
The current lawmakers also have significant political interests at stake. Some will seek re-election to the Assembly. Some may seek executive appointments, while others will seek to consolidate their influence within their constituencies.
The governor and the APC, in turn, need lawmakers capable of mobilising support in their constituencies during elections.
This creates a political dependency between the executive, legislature and party structure. The Speaker sits at the centre of that relationship.
A politically cooperative Speaker can facilitate coordination between the governor, lawmakers and party leaders. An independent Speaker, however, can emerge as a separate political centre capable of challenging the executive.
The bigger 2028 question
The real political battle may ultimately come after 2027. The outcome of the 2027 elections will help determine who controls the party structures, legislative caucuses and grassroots networks that will shape the 2028 governorship contest.
Three questions will eventually dominate the political conversation: Who controls the APC structure? Who controls the legislative caucus? Who controls the succession conversation?
The answers to those questions will determine who enters the 2028 governorship race with the strongest political machinery.
The Edo North factor
Idaiye’s emergence gives Edo North a stronger institutional foothold in the state’s political architecture.
With Okpebholo occupying the governorship from Edo Central and Idaiye now presiding over the Assembly from Edo North, the arrangement creates a form of geographical balance that could prove politically useful.
For Edo North stakeholders, the Speakership could become an important bargaining instrument ahead of future elections.
It also gives the region a greater voice in legislative and political negotiations involving the governor and the ruling party.
Four battles, one assembly
The unfolding crisis can ultimately be understood as four overlapping political battles.
First is the battle for control of the Assembly. Agbebaku has been removed and replaced by a Speaker acceptable to the majority.
Second is APC consolidation. The ruling party now has an opportunity to align the legislature more closely with the political reality created by Okpebholo’s governorship.
Third is the 2027 electoral battle. The APC needs a political structure capable of mobilising support across Edo for its candidates.
Fourth is the longer-term 2028 succession battle. The structures being built today could determine who has the strongest bargaining position when the next governorship contest begins.
While the fourth battle may still be in the early stages, it would be premature to conclude that Agbebaku’s removal was engineered specifically to influence the 2028 governorship One thing is increasingly clear: the crisis in the Edo State House of Assembly is no longer merely about one Speaker.
It is about who controls the legislature, who controls the ruling party’s machinery, who commands the lovalty of lawmakers, and who will ultimately have the strongest hand when Edo’s next great political battle begins. For Edo, the real test will be whether this latest realignment produces a more stable and productive legislature or merely opens another chapter in the state’s seemingly endless political drama.