Lagos clarifies HIV figures, says reported cases are diagnoses, not new infections

The Lagos State Government has dismissed reports suggesting that the state recorded the highest number of new HIV infections in Nigeria in 2025, clarifying that the widely reported figure represents newly diagnosed HIV-positive cases rather than people who contracted the virus within the year.

Chief Executive Officer of the Lagos State AIDS Control Agency (LSACA), Dr Folakemi Animashaun, gave the clarification on Thursday during a press briefing at the Bagauda Kaltho Press Centre, Alausa, Ikeja, saying the reports had been misinterpreted and should not trigger public panic.

Animashaun explained that newly diagnosed HIV-positive cases include people who may have acquired the virus years earlier but were only recently tested, as well as patients referred from other states or those who travelled to Lagos for testing and treatment because of the state’s extensive healthcare services.

She stressed that new HIV infections, on the other hand, are estimated through epidemiological surveillance and scientific modelling and should not be confused with diagnosis figures.

‘The figure widely reported in the media requires important technical interpretation. It does not literally translate to Lagos State recording 10,430 new HIV infections in 2025,’ she said.

According to her, inaccurate interpretation of HIV data could fuel fear, stigma and discrimination, discourage people from testing and undermine public health interventions.

She disclosed that the state was engaging relevant stakeholders to better understand the methodology and reporting assumptions behind the published figures to ensure accurate public communication.

Animashaun noted that Lagos, being Nigeria’s most populous state, commercial hub and a major referral centre, naturally records high volumes of HIV testing, diagnosis and treatment, adding that stronger surveillance and wider access to healthcare services result in higher case detection rather than evidence of a worsening epidemic.

Providing programme data, she said Lagos conducted 504,800 HIV tests in 2025, identifying 11,940 HIV-positive cases, with a positivity rate of 2.4 per cent.

In the first quarter of 2026, she said the state carried out 179,229 HIV tests and identified 3,390 HIV-positive cases, while the positivity rate declined further to 1.9 per cent.

‘The declining positivity rate, despite expanded testing, is a significant epidemiological indicator that reflects improving epidemic control,’ she said.

Animashaun added that 147,904 persons were receiving antiretroviral therapy in Lagos as of 2025, with 97 per cent achieving viral suppression, describing the outcome as a major public health milestone.

She also said the state’s Early Infant Diagnosis positivity rate had dropped from 5.1 per cent in 2020 to 1.5 per cent in 2025, indicating sustained progress in preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

The LSACA chief disclosed that the state had commenced implementing a HIV Response Acceleration Plan covering July to September 2026 to expand testing, strengthen treatment linkage and retention, improve service quality, enhance community prevention and strengthen data quality across all 20 Local Government Areas and 57 Local Council Development Areas.

She added that Lagos continues to implement HIV prevention interventions, including oral and long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Animashaun further announced that Lagos had independently procured antiretroviral medicines to ensure uninterrupted HIV treatment, with the first consignment expected to arrive by the end of August 2026.

According to her, the initiative makes Lagos the first sub-national government in Nigeria to independently procure antiretroviral medicines for people living with HIV.

She said the move would reduce dependence on donor funding, strengthen health system resilience and guarantee long-term HIV commodity security, while the state also plans to explore local production of HIV commodities through collaborations with international partners, including UNAIDS, and by drawing lessons from Kenya’s pharmaceutical sector.

Animashaun urged Lagos residents to know their HIV status, utilise available prevention and treatment services, rely on verified public health information and reject stigma and discrimination.

‘There is no cause for panic. HIV remains preventable and manageable. With early diagnosis and sustained treatment, people living with HIV can live long, healthy, productive and fulfilling lives,’ she said.

She reaffirmed the state’s commitment to evidence-based policies, strategic partnerships and sustained investment in strengthening its HIV response, saying, ‘Lagos is not defined by the number of people it tests. Lagos is defined by the strength of its response.’

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