About 34.7 million Nigerians across 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) are projected to face a severe food and nutrition crisis between June and August 2026, according to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (CH) food insecurity report released on Friday in Abuja.
The report, presented at the Results Presentation Workshop on the October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé Food and Nutrition Insecurity Analysis for Nigeria, revealed that an estimated 27.2 million people, including over 485,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), are already in crisis or worse phases of food insecurity from October to December 2025.
The Cadre Harmonisé is a report by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security with technical support from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other partners.
Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Marcus Ogunbiyi, who declared the workshop open, described the findings as a wake-up call for urgent and coordinated action to prevent a deepening food crisis in 2026.
‘The results we are examining today go beyond data, they speak to the realities of millions of Nigerian households, especially those in vulnerable and crisis-affected areas. We must treat these findings as a call to sustained and coordinated action,’ Ogunbiyi said.
According to the CH analysis, while inflation and consumer price index (CPI) rates eased slightly in the current period, food insecurity remains widespread.
Over 55 percent of households that managed to maintain acceptable food consumption levels did so by eating fewer quality meals, reducing portions, or borrowing money to buy food.
The report attributes persistently high food prices especially for essential items such as vegetable oil, dairy products, meat, and condiments, which rose by over 35 percent to the naira-dollar exchange rate and high transport costs.
‘Even though staple food prices have stabilized somewhat, the cost of complementary food items and services such as food haulage remains high. This has increased household food expenditure and eroded purchasing power,’ the report noted.
The CH findings show that insecurity, high input costs, and weak rural economies continue to undermine agricultural livelihoods. Farmers across the North-East, North-West, and parts of the North-Central region faced restricted access to land due to insurgency, banditry, and kidnapping.
The report highlighted that the high cost of fertilizers and agrochemicals, which surged by 56 percent, discouraged many farmers from participating in the upcoming 2025/2026 dry season farming.
Government food import programs, while easing consumer prices, have also hurt local farmers, leading to heavy losses in the 2025 cropping season.
The nutrition situation in parts of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Katsina, and Jigawa has reached alarming levels. The report classified most of the North-East and North-West as being in Serious (Phase 3) to Critical (Phase 4) nutrition conditions.
In Borno State, areas such as Maiduguri, Jere, and Mobbar are among those facing critical levels of acute malnutrition, while Katsina’s Jibia and Mashi LGAs have also crossed into the emergency phase.
Despite these grim realities, Benue State’s IDP camps in Makurdi and Guma recorded Acceptable to Alert nutrition levels, showing some improvement due to targeted interventions.
While most areas in the North-East and North-West recorded low mortality levels, the CH report warns that crisis-level deaths (Phase 3) have been observed in Central and Northern Borno, Southern Adamawa, and Eastern Sokoto, among others.
Emergency-level mortality (Phase 4) was also reported in Eastern Borno and Northern Adamawa, raising humanitarian concerns.
The report identifies four main drivers of the worsening food and nutrition crisis, which include insecurity with components such as insurgency, kidnapping, and banditry disrupting rural livelihoods.
Other key drivers are government food imports undermining local agricultural economies; climate shocks such as floods and prolonged dry spells distorting cropping systems; and high displacement rates resulting from both conflict and natural disasters.
The FAO Representative for Nigeria and ECOWAS, Dr. Hussein Gadain, commended Nigeria for a decade of commitment to the CH process but cautioned that the findings demand an immediate, multi-sectoral response.
‘Conflict, climate extremes, and economic pressures are undermining livelihoods and food systems across the country. The Cadre Harmonisé remains our most relevant early warning tool for guiding humanitarian and development responses,’ Gadain said.
He urged states yet to join the CH process to do so before the March 2026 cycle to ensure nationwide coverage and more comprehensive data.
Both officials reaffirmed that the CH data will guide the implementation of key government initiatives, including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP) and the National Food Security and Nutrition Emergency Plan.