The stage now appear set for battle royale or survival battle in the Kwara Central senatorial race as incumbent occupier of the seat, Saliu Mustapha, formerly of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and now of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) battles the state, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq for the seat. BIOLA AZEEZ examines the implications of the political game as it unfolds.
The battle for the Kwara Central senatorial seat in the 2027 general election appears set not to be an ordinary contest judged by unfolding political drama and calculations in the State of Harmony.
Before now, the incumbent occupier of the Kwara Central senatorial seat in the Senate, Senator Salihu Mustapha, was in the All Progressives Congress (APC), until he formally joined the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) few weeks ago, while the rumours had been circulating about a year ago. Mustapha has gone ahead to pick the ticket to recontest for the seat under the PDP in the next general elections, thus setting the stage for battle royale.
Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq had clinched the Kwara Central senatorial ticket in the APC primary to take part in the 2027 poll when he would have completed two terms of eight years as Kwara state governor.
Salihu Mustapha is a traditional title holder of Turaki of Ilorin Emirate, while Governor Abdulrazaq holds the traditional title of Sardauna Ngeri of Ilorin Emirate.
Background
Senator Saliu Mustapha emerged on the Kwara political scene around 2018 to fly the flag of the APC in the governorship election; his media campaign and rhetoric against the then political order aligned with the mood of the time. Before establishing himself on the state’s political turf, he was a businessman and a stalwart of the defunct CPC, rising to become its Deputy National Chairman.
He was therefore a formidable figure in the APC who desired to realise his political ambitions through the party. He ran in the party primaries that were held in 2018. In 2022, he emerged as the party’s flag bearer and contested the Kwara Central Senatorial seat, where he won.
However, the 2026 edition of the party’s governorship primaries was dogged by controversy over whether it was held at all. His uneasy relationship with the incumbent Governor has been cited as a major reason why he could not carry the day.
Senator Saliu Mustapha joined the G10 and later the G15, to pressure the APC headquarters in Abuja not to recognise the Governor’s candidates in the 2027 elections. After weeks of drama, media war, bombardment of the APC headquarters with petitions, and street shows, the APC leadership kept mum, indicating acquiescence to the status quo. In politics, everything is time-bound. It was then time to move on when not even a whisper came from where it matters most on the controversial primaries.
He is a purposeful spender with a moderate political structure and a growing philanthropic pedigree. He will now contest the Kwara Central Senatorial seat in 2027 against the Governor.
It is recalled that misgivings and grievances which reportedly trailed the Kwara APC primary made some stalwarts of the ruling party, comprised of 10 governorship and National Assembly aspirants to form G15 group that opposed alleged marginalization in affairs of the party.
Political pundits in the state are of the view that members of the G15 could not take the treatment lightly, saying that the prevailing political situation could send them to political oblivion if they did not act fast enough to save their individual political future.
The view was that leadership of the party, supported by the governor, had supported the emergence of young politicians against members of the G15 who had been in one elective position or another, thus, invariably, sending members of the G15 to political doldrum.
The members of the G15, who later metamorphosed to The Oto ge Progressives (T.O.P.) said that the TOP is a coalition comprising of the G15, the Kwara Elders’ Group, aspirants for all elective positions in Kwara State, various youth and women groups and other concerned members of the APC.
This is just as members of the APC group said that they rejected all candidates produced by the party primary for next year poll.
In an address by one of the stakeholders, who was also a governorship aspirant, Senator Yahaya Oloriegbe, on behalf of the group at the town hall engagement with APC critical stakeholders in Ilorin recently, the APC group said that it would reject every attempt to treat the APC as the personal property of any individual or to impose a predetermined political arrangement upon its members.
Speaking on the development, a professor of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Professor Saliu Hassan Ajisafe, discussed the political implications of the detection of Senator Mustapha to the PDP ahead of the general election.
Professor Hassan Saliu, who said that the defection converts an intra-party crisis into a direct electoral contest, added that, ‘It sets up the 2027 Kwara Central senatorial election as Governor vs Turaki,’ he said.
The professor weighed in thus: ‘Mustapha defection, for the APC, is a loss of a founding figure, mass mobiliser and financier. For the PDP, it is an instant boost in credibility, structure, and funding. For Kwara politics, it means the Senatorial race will now define the state’s political direction for some time to come.
‘It may also signal disunity among members of the G10/G15 who may not feel able to continue in a party where the centre cannot hold. Some of them may be pressured to return to the APC, while a few others may switch off politically for a while.
‘Another implication is what Senator Mustapha will tell the electorate, given his previous rhetoric against the party he has now approached for shelter. I understand some of the dissatisfied APC politicians are already doing image laundering for Dr. Saraki by portraying him as God-sent. The issue is whether voters are buying into the new sermon.
‘Money politics will characterise the next round of elections in the state. All the leading figures in the elections are moneybags. Senator Saliu Mustapha’s involvement in the PDP will undoubtedly buoy its material base to match the APC’s money-for-money. Unfortunately, the masses will be secondary in this money show.
‘Some rupture will likely take place in the PDP as the initial candidates may have to be sacrificed for the new sheriffs that have joined the party. If such frictions are not well managed, they may lead to anti-party activities.
‘From public displays, the governor does not seem disturbed by the opposition’s antics. He is confident his party will win the elections. This implies that those opposed to him need not sleep soundly about the contest.
‘On the governor’s side, he needs to be worried, especially with Senator Mustapha’s threat that by 1 pm on election day he would have defeated the Governor for the Kwara Central senatorial seat. In politics, it is not advisable to underrate one’s opponent.
‘The votes of Kwara Central will be shared among the APC, PDP and even the NDC. The votes of other senatorial districts may eventually determine the winner of the governorship election.
‘Predictably, Senator Mustapha will lose some supporters and gain others who sympathise with him. What one observes is that his rationalisations for joining the PDP seem unconvincing to some of his supporters, who have read personal ambition into the whole arrangement, though understandably so.
‘One cannot conclude this initial appraisal without discussing the Senator’s mileage or political capital in the APC. The likelihood of it being wasted is evident. Given the nature of politics in Nigeria, people will rise against some privileges he has enjoyed in the political space. Unless he agrees to return to the party after the elections, he may be paid back in his own coin. One hears people say that they will vote for the PDP in gubernatorial and legislative elections but for the APC in the presidential election. While this is possible, more work is needed to make it work smoothly.
‘Overall, Senator Mustapha’s defection to the PDP is a morale booster, but it does not guarantee victory for the party at the polls. Similarly, the APC should not pretend it does not matter. The ball will now definitely pass to the court of the voters. That is why the experience of the last Osun election holds important lessons for Kwara politicians as we enter the 2027 election cycle.’