Fubara explains reason behind payroll fraud cleanup in Rivers’ LGAs

Siminalayi Fubara, Governor of Rivers State, has explained why his administration approved a comprehensive staff payroll verification exercise.

Governor Fubara said on Monday in Port Harcourt that the cleanup of payroll fraud is targeted at ghost workers across the 23 local government areas of the state.

The governor, who spoke during the commissioning of the Omademe Internal Roads project in Ikwerre Local Government Area, said the approval of the verification exercise and implementation of report was borne out of the administration’s resolve to entrench fiscal discipline within the Rivers State public service.

He said the issue of bloated salary payrolls at the local government level had been a lingering challenge even before he assumed office, and there was the need to tackle it headlong.

Governor Fubara stated that the then Local Government Service Commission was already working on the issue before the unfortunate emergency rule in the state.

According to him, when he returned from the his suspension and met a new commission, which had been put in place, he was still determined to resolve the issue.

He said that having been a treasury officer before his venture into politics, he ensured that he brought his wealth of experience and the deployment of ICT personnel to guide the committee on the assignment.

Governor Fubara noted that the committee was designed to handle the exercise with utmost objectivity and integrity, ensuring that the assignment was devoid of politics.

‘It doesn’t matter whether the people are my supporters. It doesn’t matter whether they are people from the other side. Now there is no other side. We are all Rivers people. I want to ensure that the right thing is done.

‘I’m not against you being employed. But the issue is that if you have to be employed, you have to be employed through the proper channel.

‘So, anybody who is writing anything, saying that it has something to do politically, please desist from it.

‘Everything about this state mustn’t be tied to politics. It mustn’t be tied to myself and because of this and that. No, please.

‘At times, let’s be very objective and look beyond the issue of politics and look at facts. So, I want to say here, that I approved the implementation of that recommendation and I stand by it,’ he said.

Governor Fubara described the Omademe Internal Roads project as part of his administration’s goal of opening up rural communities and linking them to other communities to enhance easy movement and boost economic activities.

He pledged that his administration would continue to do what is right and befitting for Rivers people until his last day in office.

‘We want to say it publicly here that it’s not about the number of days, but what matters in the life of every administration is the value that is added. So, please, nobody should lose any hope. We will continue to add value till the last day.

‘And who knows? God might have another different thing for us. So, please, I want everybody to cheer up. We are working as one now. Let us sustain that tempo for the good of Rivers State. That is where I stand, and I am not shifting grounds on that,’ he said.

The governor also charged political leaders across the state to join hands with him in sustaining the prevailing peace and putting the past political crisis behind them.

‘Just think of where we are coming from. Think of what has happened before. For me, I am not interested in going down that road anymore. What is behind me is behind me. What I am looking at is what is ahead of me.

‘So, please, let’s look at what is ahead of all of us as a team, as a state, as part of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,’ he said.

Earlier, Temple Nwofor, Rivers State Commissioner for Works, provided some insight into the road project, as according to him, the contract for the internal roads was awarded to Setraco Construction Limited in February 2024, while work commenced in November 2024.

‘The project comprises 10 distinct internal roads spanning approximately 8.6 kilometres, complete with side drains and outfall discharge systems.

‘It features a 100 millimeter asphaltic layer, 8.7 kilometres of concrete side drains and a three-kilometre outfall drainage system designed to prevent localised flooding,’ Nwofor stated.

In an address, Charles Wobodo, Chairman of Ikwerre Local Government Area, expressed appreciation to Governor Fubara for the infrastructure, but demanded that more road projects were needed to expand the road network in the council area.

Smartcomply takes Nigerian compliance tech to GITEX Nigeria as digital trust becomes growth barrier

Nigerian compliance and cybersecurity company Smartcomply will showcase its technology at GITEX Nigeria 2026, joining more than 1,000 startups and global technology companies as Africa’s digital economy increases demand for stronger systems to manage cyber, regulatory and fraud risks.

Smartcomply was selected through the ONDI-NITDA startup delegation to participate in the GITEX Nigeria Startup Festival, which will hold at Landmark Centre in Lagos from September 2 to 3.

The company’s participation puts its compliance technology in front of investors, enterprise executives and government officials at a time when African businesses are expanding digital transactions, remote customer onboarding and cross-border operations.

That expansion is increasing the cost of weak controls. Businesses now face overlapping requirements covering data protection, anti-money laundering, know-your-customer processes, cybersecurity and third-party risk. For companies seeking to scale quickly, managing those obligations can become as important as raising capital or acquiring customers.

Smartcomply, founded in 2021, is positioning itself around that gap by combining compliance, risk management, cybersecurity and fraud prevention within a single technology ecosystem.

At GITEX, the company will demonstrate its Compliance Exposure Score, a rapid assessment tool designed to give organisations an indication of their readiness across governance, third-party risk, technical security and workforce preparedness.

It will also showcase its wider product ecosystem, including Adhere, Seequre, Oculus and Smartcomply Academy, covering areas such as regulatory compliance, vulnerability assessment, cybersecurity, AML and KYC, fraud detection and workforce security.

Gbemisola Osunrinde, chief executive officer of Smartcomply, said the role of compliance is shifting from a regulatory obligation to a broader business requirement.

‘Businesses are no longer asking only what they need to submit to a regulator. They are asking whether they can trust their systems, their people, their partners and the businesses they transact with,’ Osunrinde added.

The shift comes as African companies increasingly rely on digital infrastructure to serve customers and enter new markets, making trust a central part of digital expansion.

GITEX Nigeria 2026, running from August 31 to September 3 across Abuja and Lagos, is expected to bring together technology companies, startups, investors, government representatives and enterprise decision-makers.

For Smartcomply, the event offers a route beyond the traditional compliance market by presenting compliance and cybersecurity as part of the infrastructure businesses need to grow safely in an increasingly digital economy.

The company’s pitch is that organisations should be able to measure and manage their exposure continuously, rather than wait for an audit, breach or regulatory intervention to reveal weaknesses.

2027: No more proxy campaigns, face Nigerians – POMR dares Tinubu

The Peter Obi Media Reach (POMR) has challenged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to step out of Aso Rock and engage Nigerians directly as he seeks a second term, warning against a growing culture of ‘proxy campaigning’ ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Idris Zekeri Jnr, POMR Spokesman, in a statement on Tuesday, said while the President may deploy surrogates to represent him at events, no surrogate can substitute for direct engagement between a presidential candidate and the electorate.

‘The 2027 election is not a ceremony to be performed by representatives,’ the statement said. ‘It is a contest for the leadership of more than 200 million Nigerians, and those seeking the mandate must have the courage to stand before the people, answer their questions, and defend their records.’

POMR expressed disappointment over President Tinubu’s absence from the National Peace Accord convened by the National Peace Committee led by former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, noting that the committee’s efforts to promote peaceful elections deserve the direct participation of all major contenders.

The group also cited major national platforms such as the ongoing Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Conference as opportunities where presidential aspirants should directly engage citizens on the state of the nation.

According to POMR, Nigerians deserve to see, hear and question the candidate seeking their mandate, rather than receiving campaign messages through ministers, governors, party officials and media aides.

The office insisted that President Tinubu personally explain his administration’s economic policies, address the hardships facing households, and account for what has changed since he assumed office in 2023.

‘If the President believes his administration has performed well, let him come before Nigerians and say so himself,’ the statement added.

POMR further challenged the President to state clearly what he would do differently if returned for another four years and to listen directly to the concerns of citizens whose votes he seeks.

The group stressed that such direct engagement should not be seen as disrespectful or confrontational, but as a basic requirement of democratic accountability.

It therefore called on President Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) to abandon proxy campaigns and face the electorate.

‘The 2027 contest should be centred on candidates, competence, records, ideas and character, rather than on which political camp can mobilise the largest network of surrogates,’ POMR stated.

‘No more proxy campaigns. No more presidential hide-and-seek,’ it declared.

POMR concluded by urging President Tinubu to meet Nigerians face-to-face, hear their concerns, and allow voters to assess his record and vision for themselves.

‘We are electing a servant of the people, not a demigod.’

Presco faces earnings pressure despite expansion plans

Presco Plc’s near-term earnings are facing pressure from stagnant revenue growth, higher operating costs and an increase in its number of shares following its recently concluded rights issue, CardinalStone Research said.

The research house revised its 12-month target price for Presco to N2,140.25 and downgraded its recommendation to HOLD from BUY, implying 4.64 percent upside from its N2,045.30 reference price.

Presco’s H1 2026 revenue was virtually unchanged year-on-year at N198.8 billion, despite global crude palm oil prices maintaining an upward trend. Malaysian benchmark CPO averaged $1,089.35 per tonne in H1 2026, up 9.6 percent year-on-year, while global CPO prices were up 18.1 percent year-to-date.

CardinalStone attributed the weak revenue growth largely to the Ghanaian segment, where lower fresh fruit bunch yields resulted from delayed seasonal rains and the lingering effects of a previous dry spell.

Higher global CPO prices also did not pass through to Ghanaian domestic prices because pricing is based on import parity in cedi terms. The Ghanaian cedi appreciated 26.3 percent against the dollar in H1 2026, reducing the price of imported and smuggled products.

In Nigeria, smuggling and a reduction in the CPO import tariff from 35 percent to 28.75 percent also capped revenue momentum. CardinalStone revised its FY2026 average CPO price assumption to N1.9 million per tonne, compared with about N1.8 million in H1.

Cost pressures added to the earnings challenge. Total operating expenses increased 11.4 percent year-on-year to N75.8 billion, while transportation costs rose 32.5 percent.

Average diesel prices cited by CardinalStone increased 133.8 percent year-to-date, while fertiliser prices also rose amid the Middle East conflict.

CardinalStone expects FY2026 core EBITDA and EBIT margins to decline to 61.6 percent and 56 percent, respectively, before recovering in 2027 as greenfield investments contribute to volumes.

Presco’s balance sheet actually strengthened despite the stagnancy, with total borrowings falling 62.3 percent to N119.5 billion in H1 2026 from N317.3 billion at FY2025. CardinalStone expects further moderation in leverage, including potential redemption of the company’s N82.9 billion bond.

For the longer term, CardinalStone highlighted Presco’s expansion programme, including the 22,500-hectare Saro Oil Palm acquisition and the Ato mill.

The first phase of the mill, costing about $77 million, has a processing capacity of 60 tonnes per hour and is expected to be completed in Q4 2026. Subsequent phases are expected to take capacity to 180 tonnes per hour over four to five years.

CardinalStone forecasts Presco’s revenue at N358.7 billion in FY2026, up 8.5 percent, and N430.8 billion in FY2027, up 20.1 percent.

Police Academy fixes September 9-18 for screening of candidates

The Nigeria Police Academy, Wudil, Kano State, has invited applicants for its 13th Regular Course to participate in a comprehensive screening exercise scheduled to commence on September 9, 2026.

The invitation was contained in a statement on Tuesday by Umar Isah, Police Public Relations Officer of the Academy, on behalf of Auwal Muhammad, Commandant.

According to the statement, the screening exercise, which will run from September 9 to 18, will comprise Computer-Based Test examinations, physical features assessment, medical screening and Selection Board interviews.

The Academy directed all applicants to print their examination slips between August 25 and September 8, 2026, through the appropriate admission platform.

‘The CBT examination will be conducted in batches according to candidates’ states of origin.

‘Candidates from Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra and Bauchi states will participate in the first batch on Wednesday, September 9.

‘The second batch, scheduled for Thursday, September 10, will comprise candidates from Bauchi (Batch B), Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River and Delta states.

The Academy, however, warned that parents and other unauthorized persons would not be allowed into the premises during the exercise.

It urged candidates to obtain further information only through the official POLAC Admission Portal and warned them against falling victim to fraudulent individuals or fake social media accounts impersonating the Nigeria Police Academy.

The Academy advised applicants to disregard unofficial communications and cautioned candidates against making payments or providing personal information to individuals claiming to have the authority to influence the admission or screening process.

NSSF reveals Sh38bn stake in Kenya Pipeline after IPO

The National Social Security Fund (NSSF) pumped Sh36.3 billion into the initial public offering (IPO) of Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC), unmasking the identity of the top shareholder who earlier opted to remain secret.

The State-backed pension scheme got a 22.2 percent stake in the freshly listed firm, making it the second-largest shareholder behind the government, regulatory documents seen by the Business Daily show.

About 90 percent of the top owners of KPC Plc bought their shares through proxies during the firm’s IPO, keeping the identity of the investors anonymous.

Regulatory filings show that 18 of the top 20 shareholders of KPC are under nominee accounts after demand from Kenyan institutional investors and the Ugandan government helped the IPO become oversubscribed.

Without the Sh36.3 billion from the NSSF and Uganda’s Sh33.8 billion, the IPO would have collapsed on failure to hit the success level.

It was required to sell shares worth Sh53.1 billion of the Sh106.3 billion shares that were on offer, in what was East Africa’s biggest IPO in local-currency terms.

The sale is part of President William Ruto’s drive to divest from State companies and seek new funding methods.

The government also reduced its stake in telecoms operator Safaricom by 15 percent in a deal worth Sh204 billion.

Of the top KPC shareholders, only the Uganda National Oil Company Limited (UNOC) and Kenya’s Unclaimed Financial Assets Authority (UFAA) are revealed as beneficial owners with 20.15 percent and 3.06 percent stakes, respectively.

Nominee accounts are registered to hold shares on behalf of the true owners, a structure used globally and at firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) to conceal the identity of beneficial owners.

The NSSF has split its stake under several nominee accounts, masking its position as the second-largest shareholder ahead of Uganda, which has a 20.15 percent stake, with the State keeping a 35 percent ownership.

‘The National Social Security Fund’s investment in Kenya Pipeline Company was Sh38.2 billion,’ said filings from the Retirement Benefits Authority (RBA) seen by the Business Daily.

‘The Sh38.2 billion investment in KPC is their largest investment in any listed equity.’

It holds a multi-billion shilling stake in KCB, MTN Uganda, East Africa Breweries Limited and Absa as part of its equity investment at the Nairobi bourse worth Sh168 billion in June, up from Sh109 billion in December.

The NSSF stake in KPC indicates that the State still enjoys majority given their combined ownership of 57. 2 percent.

This saw the NSSF given a seat on the board, with its managing trustee or alternate directors having joined KPC on July 30, 2026.

The IPO got a subscription rate of 105.7 percent despite earlier concerns over lower valuations from some banks, an extended offer period and reports of investor apathy.

Uganda, a landlocked neighbour that uses the pipeline to move its petroleum products, secured a 20.15 percent stake in the company during the IPO, earning it two board seats and veto over the hiring and firing of KPC chief executive.

The NSSF is flush with cash after the government raised the monthly contributions to the fund from a low of Sh400, including employers’ and employees’ share, in 2022 to a maximum of Sh12,960.

This allowed the fund to collect over Sh100 billion annually from Sh26 billion in 2022, providing it with a war chest for cutting deals.

The NSSF is part of a consortium with a Chinese contractor that is building the Nairobi- Nakuru – Mau Summit expressway at an estimated cost of Sh111.3 billion. It is also scouting for private equity offshore deals in the US and Europe.

The heavy share of proxy accounts in KPC’s top shareholder register contrasts sharply with the ownership structure that emerged after IPOs through privatisation.

Safaricom Plc listed only two nominee accounts among its top 10 shareholders in the year ending March 31, 2009, or months following the 2008 offering of the telecoms firm.

KenGen, which had an IPO in 2005, revealed four nominee accounts among its top 10 shareholders.

Foreigners, local retail investors and oil marketing companies (OMCs) shied away from the oversubscribed IPO.

Local retail investors bought shares worth Sh4.1 billion against their allocation of Sh21.2 billion units, while foreigners spent a measly Sh34.8 million compared to their target of Sh21.2 billion.

Oil marketers took shares worth Sh23.1 million or 0.14 percent of the Sh15.9 billion stocks allocated to the dealers who rely on the pipeline to feed the market.

The concentration of local institutional investors and Uganda implied that the IPO was seen as a long-term strategic investment.

The shares, which were sold at Sh9 each during the IPO, started trading on the Nairobi bourse on March 9 and closed at Sh9.06 at the close of trading.

Nairobi’s real estate providers must match changing consumer lifestyles

A while back, few imagined Upper Hill, Kilimani, Kileleshwa and Westlands would become home to clusters of high-rise apartments.

Equally unexpected was the dramatic transformation of leafy suburbs such as Lavington and Karen, where changing planning standards, population pressure, improved infrastructure and new construction technologies have reshaped neighbourhood skylines. These shifts have also changed what buyers and tenants expect from developers.

The developers most likely to succeed are those who anticipate changing lifestyles rather than simply build houses. Understanding the needs of young professionals, entrepreneurs and a growing international clientele is now a competitive advantage.

Some preferences remain non-negotiable. Security of land tenure is the foundation of any property investment, as buyers want assurance that their homes are built on legally secure land. Reliable water and electricity are equally essential, while good access roads and proximity to major transport routes, shopping centres and other amenities continue to influence demand.

Beyond these basics, however, expectations have evolved. Exposure to global housing trends and advances in technology have raised the standard for residential developments in Nairobi. Buyers increasingly want homes that offer convenience, connectivity and enhanced security alongside affordability.

Reliable, high-speed internet has become as important as water and power, supporting smart home devices and remote working. Strong mobile network coverage is another necessity. Security has also become technology-driven, with automated gates, CCTV surveillance, intercom systems and digitally controlled access replacing the traditional guard-only approach.

The rise of hybrid and remote work means developers must also create homes that accommodate workspaces.

Quiet rooms, study nooks or functional balconies, together with sufficient power outlets, USB charging ports and good lighting, are becoming attractive selling points. Looking ahead, developers should also prepare for emerging technologies such as wireless charging stations integrated into homes.

Practical amenities continue to matter. Adequate, secure parking remains a priority, and developers should begin installing electric vehicle charging points as Kenya gradually adopts cleaner transport options. On-site laundry facilities or dependable laundry services also add value for busy urban residents.

Lifestyle amenities have become powerful pull factors. Modest gyms, swimming pools, children’s play areas and well-maintained green spaces make developments more appealing, particularly in gated communities and apartment complexes.

Ultimately, however, the long-term value of a development depends on sustainable management.

Insurance sector must rebrand to solve its growing talent crisis

The insurance sector is facing a growing human capital crisis as experienced underwriters, actuaries and risk managers retire in large numbers. Their departure is creating a shortage of specialised talent needed to assess increasingly complex risks, including climate change, cyber threats and emerging technologies.

Nearly one in four insurance professionals globally is aged 55 or older, while the pipeline of younger workers entering the industry remains weak. Because these skills take years to develop, the loss of experienced professionals threatens the industry’s ability to innovate, protect businesses and households, and support economic stability.

A major challenge is perception. Many young professionals see insurance as an outdated, bureaucratic industry with limited career appeal, making it difficult to compete with technology and finance for top talent. At the same time, there is little understanding of insurance’s broader role in society.

The industry underpins disaster recovery, infrastructure development, renewable energy projects and business resilience, yet this purpose is rarely communicated effectively.

The problem is worsened by limited exposure in higher education. Insurance is largely absent from university curricula, meaning many students complete their studies without ever considering it as a career option.

To attract fresh talent, the industry must reposition itself as a technology and innovation-driven sector. Rather than focusing solely on claims and premiums, insurers should showcase careers in artificial intelligence, data science, climate risk modelling and cybersecurity.

This would better align the industry with the interests of today’s graduates.

Closer partnerships between insurers, universities and professional bodies are equally important. Modern curricula should combine insurance with disciplines such as data analytics, environmental science and cybersecurity, while risk management modules should be introduced in business and technology programmes.

Finally, insurers need stronger talent pipelines through paid internships, mentorship programmes, university competitions and scholarships for insurance-related degrees.

Investing early in young professionals will help secure the specialised skills the industry needs for the future.

Tug of war, twerking, and TikToks: Has team building gone too far?

It is a Tuesday, and you are deep in your work. Then someone taps you on the back and tells you to hide under your desk. They are planning a birthday surprise for a colleague.

Later, someone pulls out a phone and starts filming. In another office, the corporate affairs team films a dancing challenge for the company’s social media pages. Later that month, the same office is planning a retreat.

The intention is usually the same: bring people closer, improve morale and build a stronger team.

But what happens when the people being asked to have fun would rather not dance, perform, hug a colleague or appear on the company’s social media page?

Team building can strengthen relationships at work. So where does real team building end and forced fun begin?

Grace Nzula, a HR consultant, says she has watched many companies try to bring their staff closer through games, birthday parties, dance challenges and retreats. But she has also seen how quickly these activities can go wrong, exposing differences in personality, age, religion, physical ability and personal boundaries.

She says some companies make the mistake of organising a team-building when there is conflict at work, hoping it will solve the problems.

‘You cannot out-exercise a bad diet,’ she says. ‘If you don’t have a proper work culture, if you’re not properly supporting employees, it doesn’t matter the number of team-building activities you do.’

According to the HR expert with Atarah Solutions, a firm based in Nairobi, some problems need a change in company systems, not a game of tug-of-war in Naivasha.

She says ‘forced fun’ usually shows up when the workplace culture is already broken. ‘When your culture is toxic, and people don’t get along, you first need to address the real issue,’ she says.

She has seen offices that do not even allow staff to take proper lunch breaks, yet still expect one retreat a year to fix everything.

She shares an example of an employer who would buy the same type of cake for every staff member’s birthday. One day, someone finally asked the employees if they liked the cake. ‘Those cakes are lame,’ one worker said. ‘First of all, I’m gluten intolerant. You buying me a cake means I can’t eat it.’

Another worker said being forced to celebrate with colleagues who only clap for them in public but talk badly about them behind their backs felt worse than not celebrating at all.

Another concern is time wastage. Yes, the social media team or corporate affairs are doing their job, but aren’t they disturbing others?

‘Employees can’t meet a deadline because you guys were recording a TikTok video,’ she says. ‘Everything must be done in moderation.’

Ms Nzula adds that employee engagement should be a continuous activity to motivate staff, not a once-a-year event. HR should also ensure there is a balance; otherwise, it can quietly turn into an entitlement.

She remembers companies that used to hold pizza Fridays until money became tight. ‘Employees almost went on a strike,’ she says.

She explains how a good HR department fixes such concerns. The best organisations let employees suggest their own activities. Some offices go bowling on the last Friday of the month. Others prefer a hike at Karura Forest, a quiz night, a talent show, or simply pizza and music in the boardroom.

When it comes to physical games like carrying colleagues, sack races or running around during retreats, she says the planner must know their audience well. She recalls a retreat where two directors could not join certain games because they had recently had knee surgery.

Right to opt out

Workers should also be allowed to opt out of anything that feels wrong for them. ‘You have somebody who is religious, and you want them to twerk,’ she says, giving an example of how mismatched an activity can be with a person’s beliefs.

Recording employees for company videos should never happen without their consent. ‘If I do not want to appear on social media, I should not be forced,’ she says, adding that this also touches on data protection rules.

Isaac Maweu, a counselling psychologist, workplace wellbeing coach and corporate trainer, explains what happens when an employee is pushed into an activity that embarrasses them.

‘Embarrassment leads to a loss of esteem; one feels not respected,’ he says, adding that instead of the activity bringing people together, it can push them further apart, and the resentment can follow the person long after the event is over. ‘This person feels like they should not be there anymore,’ he says.

He gives an example of physical contact between colleagues of different genders during team-building games. If someone is not comfortable hugging a colleague, he says, they should never be forced. People enjoy different things because of their personalities, beliefs and backgrounds. He uses religion as an example.

‘You can’t expect a Muslim employee to dance to haram music or a Christian to sit through a meditation session. Somethings upset the personality, behaviour, culture of a person,’ he says.

Multigenerational dynamics

On the trend of companies filming employees dancing or carrying each other for social media content, Mr Maweu says companies should not be uncomfortable engaging in such activities lightly. He says workplace wellness depends heavily on how safe people feel during team building.

‘The younger employees may find it fun, but older workers may have concerns about the physical closeness,’ he says.

In offices with multigenerational workers, he suggests simpler alternatives like sack races or egg carrying games that do not require close physical contact.

‘It doesn’t have to be activities around physical and close connection that upset someone’s standard.’

There is a healthy way to push employees slightly outside their comfort zones, but it must come with caution. He gives an example of asking someone who fears public speaking to try a short challenge, followed by a proper debrief afterwards.

‘How was the session? What did you like? What didn’t you like?’ he says. He explains that these are the kind of questions that help a company learn and improve the next activity, instead of repeating the same mistake.

Ndii: Why Kenya falters on fiscal consolidation targets

Kenya is unable to meet its fiscal consolidation targets because of cash demands by education and security sectors, which were allocated Sh1.35 trillion in this year’s budget, President William Ruto’s chief economic advisor, David Ndii, has said.

He said despite allocating the education sector Sh784.5 billion in the current budget, the government is still running a deficit in funding for universities and teacher recruitment.

Tying the funding demands to demographics, Dr Ndii cited the widening ratio of security officers and teachers to the population as one of the reasons the government is being forced to spend more on the two despite calls to cut its recurrent budget.

‘Fiscal consolidation is harder than it might look from the outside, where it is easy to ask why we can’t just reduce expenditure. The single largest driver of the expenditure side of government is demographics,’ Dr Ndii said when he spoke at a markets forum organised by Mwango Capital last week.

‘We had a teachers’ deficit of 200,000 when the current administration took over, and though we have employed 120,000, we still have a shortfall of 80,000. If you look at ratios of things like security services per population, that number has been dropping, so you have more people to serve, and you need more money,’ the chair of the presidential council of economic advisers added.

The government has budgeted Sh223.7 billion for 1.2 million tertiary students this year, but with their number set to double to 2.5 million over the next five years, the State estimates that the funding requirement will climb to Sh450 billion.

To cap the impact of the tertiary education budget on its books, the government is rolling out a new funding model in which it will issue education bonds backed by an annual exchequer allocation of Sh100 billion.

In the current budget, the security sector has been allocated Sh567.4 billion. Defence has the largest share at Sh252.1 billion, followed by the National Police Service at Sh144.7 billion, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) at Sh64.1 billion, internal security and administration at Sh63.9 billion and the Kenya Prisons Service at Sh42.6 billion.

Together, education and security account for 28 percent of Kenya’s Sh4.82 trillion budget expenditure. The budget deficit for the year runs at Sh1.145 trillion, equivalent to 5.5 percent of GDP.

The government has unsuccessfully targeted to lower this deficit to three percent of GDP, because of expenditure overruns and revenue shortfalls.

Lowering the deficit to about three percent in the medium term is one of the conditions that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had placed on Kenya under the $3.6 billion funding programme that ended in April 2025. The two parties are in talks for a successor programme.

In the 2025/2026 fiscal year, the Treasury opened with a projected budget deficit of Sh923.2 billion, equivalent to 4.8 percent of GDP.

Spending and revenue revisions through the year, however, meant that the actual deficit rose to Sh1.26 trillion by the end of June 2026, equivalent to 6.8 percent of GDP.

On the revenue side, Dr Ndii said the reforms meant to close the deficit gap have trailed growth in spending.

Kenya currently runs a revenue yield gap of eight percent of GDP-meaning that the country’s tax to-GDP-ratio of about 14 percent is below the ideal level of 22 percent.

Tax revenue fell short of target in the 2025/26 fiscal year by Sh52 billion, closing the year at Sh2.59 trillion against a target of Sh2.64 trillion.

‘On the revenue side, it has been challenging to implement structural reforms, although they are beginning to kick in now. Revenue reforms are lagging expenditure demands, which means fiscal consolidation ambitions meet reality,’ added Dr Ndii.

To close the revenue gap, the State has leaned on digital technology to catch tax cheats, with Mr Ndii adding that the government is hoping to increase revenue to GDP by at least a percentage point per year, to halve the revenue yield gap in the next five years.