Asianet Pakistan Private Limited

Nigeria’s fragile electricity supply is leaving households and businesses increasingly vulnerable as an intensifying El Niño threatens to expose millions of people to extreme heat, raising the cost of cooling homes, disrupting businesses and increasing health risks in a country where reliable power remains out of reach for many.

Nigeria has some of the world’s largest energy access deficits, with about 92 million people lacking access to electricity, according to data from Austria-based Sustainable Energy for All, an international organisation working in partnership with the United Nations.

This data is compounded by warnings from researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, who said Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, making it the country with the highest projected toll from the weather phenomenon of El Niño. The estimate is part of a wider forecast of 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region.

For Africa’s most populous country, the development is becoming more urgent as electricity distribution companies struggle to secure sufficient power from the national grid, forcing consumers to endure shorter supply hours and rely on generators, inverters and other costly alternatives to keep essential activities running.

Data from Nigeria’s electricity distribution system showed that 11 distribution companies had a combined allocation of 3,176 megawatts as of 1 p.m. Nigerian time on October 23.

Abuja Disco received the most at 575 MW, followed by Ikeja Disco at 467 MW and Eko Disco at 458 MW. Ibadan Disco was allocated 355 MW and Port Harcourt Disco 291 MW. Benin (240 MW), Enugu (230 MW), Kano (173 MW), Kaduna (167 MW) and Jos (146 MW) got far less. Yola Disco, serving the north-east, received just 74 MW.

The northern allocations matter because that is where the heat is most severe due to distance from the Atlantic Ocean, proximity to the Sahara Desert and low rainfall. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency recorded 41°C in Nguru, in Yobe State, in recent days. Lagos reached 34°C.

Heat of that magnitude, combined with unreliable power, leaves people with few ways to cool their homes or keep food and medicine cold.

‘Not having stable electricity during this heatwave period is very disastrous,’ said Toyosi Akinbobola, head of energy at Sofidam Capital.

Gas shortages compound the problem. The generators’ association says supply to thermal plants is below 43 percent of daily need. Pipeline vandalism destroyed 128 transmission towers in 2024.

‘Nigeria’s stranded power crisis is a transmission failure, not a generation failure,’ Joy Ogaji, chief executive of the generators’ association, said in July.

She described the toll on small businesses: ‘A small tailor earning N4,000 a day can spend N3,000 of it on generator fuel.’

Greg Odogwu, national coordinator at Centre for Renewable Energy, said Nigeria’s power shortages make it vulnerable to global heatwaves.

‘Even households connected to the grid may be unable to depend on electricity throughout the hottest hours of the day,’ Odogwu said. ‘When supply fails, consumers with sufficient resources turn to petrol or diesel generators, solar systems, batteries and inverters. Others have no practical alternative.’

BusinessDay’s findings showed the resulting costs extend beyond household comfort.

Shops may need to run generators for longer, manufacturers face additional operating expenses, and healthcare facilities must maintain power for essential equipment and medicines that require controlled temperatures.

Apart from rising costs, the weather risk is climbing at the same time.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said the current El Niño could peak toward the end of 2026, with effects lasting well beyond that.

El Niño is a natural pattern, marked by warming surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. But climate change is adding to its force, raising baseline temperatures and widening the gap between what people face and what they can cope with.

Researchers behind the Climate Impact Lab analysis said the numbers reflect poverty and power shortages as much as the weather.

Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago and Tamma Carleton of the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in an analysis published by Gavi’s VaccinesWork that ‘this makes Nigeria the country most likely in the world to have the highest heat mortality under the super El Niño.’

They added that ‘much of Africa lacks the electricity needed for air conditioning,’ and that ‘poorer, hotter countries will lack the money and reliable electricity needed to protect people.’

‘More than 60 percent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025,’ Chicago researchers noted, and even homes with electricity connections face frequent outages.

The most exposed are people who work outdoors, such as farmers, traders, construction workers and commercial drivers. They are joined by residents of communities with little access to cooling, steady power or health care.

Hospitals and clinics that rely on diesel generators face higher fuel costs and the risk of equipment failure just as heat-related admissions rise.

In Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, residents have been enduring sweltering conditions with limited relief.

‘The heat is unbearable, and with no power, we can’t even turn on fans or air conditioners to cool down,’ lamented Adeola Okonkwo, a resident of Mushin Local Government Area in Lagos. ‘It’s like being trapped in an oven.’

For those who can afford it, the answer is self-supply. Generators and solar-battery inverters have become routine in Nigerian homes and shops, but they are expensive to buy and run.

Diesel and petrol costs eat into household budgets, and small firms that need cold storage, such as food sellers and pharmacies, face rising overheads or spoiled stock.

This development means wealthier urban households can buy their way through a heat wave while poorer families in dense neighbourhoods and rural northern states, where temperatures are highest, mostly cannot.

Hotels and other public venues in Abuja have stepped up entry screening and hygiene measures amid heightened concerns over Ebola virus disease, as the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) prepares to host its 32nd summit in the Federal Capital Territory.

A visit by BusinessDay to some shopping centres and hotels in Abuja on Sunday showed that precautionary measures, including the use of face masks, hand sanitisers and temperature-checking equipment, were being deployed at some public facilities.

At Abuja Continental Hotel, attendants were observed wearing face masks and using hand sanitisers, while individuals entering event halls were subjected to checks.

The measures come as the NESG’s 32nd meeting is scheduled to begin on Monday, with a large number of participants expected to attend the summit.

The heightened vigilance also follows the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention’s (NCDC) disclosure that it had identified two additional suspected Ebola cases and 53 primary contacts linked to the outbreak response.

Jide Idris, director-general of the NCDC, disclosed this at a press briefing in Abuja on Sunday, saying public health authorities had established facilities for isolating and quarantining suspected cases where necessary.

‘We have established two additional suspected cases and 53 primary contact links. They are primary contacts. We have an isolation centre and a quarantine centre,’ Idris said.

He said about 12 public and private laboratories were available to test for Ebola, adding that the agency had strengthened its laboratory capacity to support prompt investigation and testing of suspected cases.

Idris said the NCDC was maintaining heightened surveillance and strengthening laboratory capacity to prevent further spread of the disease.

He also urged public and private healthcare facilities nationwide to strengthen screening, triage and infection prevention measures, while ensuring that healthcare workers had adequate personal protective equipment.

According to the agency, public health teams were identifying and monitoring people who might have been exposed to the confirmed case for 21 days after their last possible exposure.

Idris urged Nigerians contacted by public health officials to cooperate with contact-tracing teams and provide accurate information about their movements, contacts and symptoms.

The developments have raised questions about the preparedness of hotels, conference centres and other venues expected to receive large numbers of people, particularly as Abuja hosts major business and public events.

However, the Federal Government has also said there is no immediate need to cancel conferences, public gatherings, campaigns or other large events following the confirmation of an Ebola case in the FCT.

Muhammad Pate, coordinating minister of health and social welfare, gave the assurance at a press briefing in Abuja on Thursday, saying the confirmed patient was reportedly showing signs of improvement.

‘At this moment, there is no indication that requires us to alter the course of large gatherings that have been planned,’ Pate said.

He added that the government would review its position if the situation changed, based on scientific evidence and advice from public health experts.

‘But if the situation changes, we’ll make a determination; we’ll consult broadly with the right experts and make that determination,’ he said.

The government’s position leaves public event organisers and venue operators responsible for maintaining appropriate precautions while health authorities continue surveillance and contact tracing.

For hotels, conference centres and other public facilities, measures such as screening, access control, hand hygiene and the availability of protective equipment can form part of efforts to reduce infection risks. Their effectiveness, however, depends on consistent implementation and adherence to public health guidance.

The NCDC has urged healthcare facilities to remain vigilant and members of the public to cooperate with health officials, while the government says any decision to restrict gatherings will depend on how the outbreak evolves.

In the earlier instalments of this series, we left the comfort of capital city seminar rooms to confront the reality of fractured spaces. We established the operational safety protocols and deep immersion methodologies necessary for a researcher to step onto the tarmac and observe a territory where the formal state has receded.

But collecting raw street-level observations is only the first half of the battle. This instalment lays out the full indicator architecture of the Decoupling Sovereignty Index (DSI) – the nineteen-indicator diagnostic engine designed by the Sundiata Post Knowledge Lab to score, weight, and track the velocity of sovereign decay across three vectors: Money, Land, and Mind.

The Three-Vector Operational Matrix

The DSI does not look at states as passive recipients of macro-shocks. It maps the active, asymmetric peeling away of de facto governance across three vectors. Each vector is calculated on a scale of zero to ten based on specific, observable field indicators. A score of zero represents total formal state function. A score of ten represents complete sovereignty decoupling. The nineteen indicators are distributed across three vectors: six for Money, seven for Land, and six for Mind. Each vector contributes equally-one third-to the composite DSI score, regardless of the number of indicators it contains. This weighting ensures that no single dimension of sovereignty decoupling dominates the composite or masks developments across the other two.

Why Nineteen Indicators

The nineteen indicators are a deliberate design, not an accumulation. Shadow Order environments punish single-source measurement: respondents self-censor, official data is compromised, and any one signal can be an artefact of local circumstance. The DSI therefore builds in overlap on purpose. Adjacent indicators, such as L2 and L4 or M6 and L6, observe related phenomena from different angles, so each score can be checked against its neighbour. Where they diverge, the divergence is itself diagnostic. Because each vector carries one third of the composite, the seven Land indicators weigh slightly less individually than those of the Money and Mind vectors. This is intended: territorial decoupling has more dimensions, but it is not allowed to dominate the composite. Where full fieldwork is not feasible, a minimum scoring set of anchor indicators (M1, L2, MD2 and MD5) gives a provisional reading, to be completed to all nineteen for the formal DSI record.

Universal Indicators, Context-Specific Sub-Indicators

The nineteen indicators are universal. They measure the same dimensions of sovereignty decoupling in every zone, which keeps scores comparable across contexts. How each indicator is observed, however, depends on the setting. Each indicator therefore carries context-specific sub-indicators, selected according to the peculiarities of the zone under assessment, including its economic structure, terrain, population characteristics, livelihood systems, settlement patterns, and prevailing security and governance conditions. These factors determine how sovereignty decoupling manifests and how it can be observed in different environments, whether agrarian, pastoral, mining, riverine, or urban. Such adaptations shape how each indicator is measured without altering its underlying meaning, thereby preserving consistency across zones.

The sub-indicators used, and the reasons for choosing them, are recorded with every zone score. Their detailed specification is set out in the DSI Methodology and Indicator Manual.

The Money Vector: Fiscal Sovereignty Indicators

This vector measures the structural insulation of a local economy from the formal state apparatus and central bank – tracking the exact point where state fiscal tools lose their operational teeth. It carries six indicators.

M1 – Parallel Taxation Rate. The frequency, consistency, and monetary toll of shadow levies imposed by non-state actors on commercial activity, market stalls, artisans’ work permits, and the transport of goods. M1 is the anchor indicator of the Money vector – the most directly observable and earliest signal of fiscal sovereignty decoupling. It is scored through direct field count of shadow levy collection points and trader testimony on levy frequency, amount, and enforcement character. Levies on agricultural output at the point of production are scored under M6.

M2 – Formal Tax Compliance Deficit. The gap between the state’s projected revenue expectations and actual tax collection within the micro-environment – measured primarily through field observation rather than state-published data, which in high-decoupling zones is itself a product of the Institutional Mirage.

Observable through the proportion of businesses reporting formal tax payment in the current cycle and the operational status of revenue offices within the zone.

M3 – Shadow Currency Penetration. The degree to which unofficial mediums of exchange displace official legal tender in commercial transactions. Scored through the proportion of observed market transactions conducted in foreign currency, commodity barter, or informal tokens, and through the parallel market exchange rate premium within the zone. Scoring thresholds are anchored to IMF parallel market premium research, World Bank informal economy thresholds, and context-specific Central Bank data – weighted inversely to the zone’s overall DSI score, since the higher the decoupling the less reliable formal monetary authority data becomes.

M4 – Remittance Dependency Ratio. The extent to which household survival depends on external transfers rather than state-linked economic activity. M4 is a change-sensitive indicator – only remittance dependency that has intensified during or following decoupling onset contributes to the score. A pre-decoupling baseline is required for reliable scoring. Without it, M4 must carry a reliability flag in the composite DSI record.

M5 – Formal Banking Exclusion Rate. The deterioration of formal banking access to wealth storage and credit during or following sovereignty decoupling onset – distinct from pre-existing structural underdevelopment of financial infrastructure. M5 measures deterioration rather than absolute absence, ensuring the DSI does not conflate structural underdevelopment with active sovereignty decoupling. A pre-decoupling baseline is required.

M6 – Harvest Tax Rate. The shadow order’s direct extraction from agricultural yield at the point of production – the monetary toll imposed on farmers at the moment their labour crystallises into a tangible, countable, and transportable commodity. Distinct from farming levies which tax land access and belong to the Land vector.

The Land Vector: Territorial Sovereignty Indicators

This vector maps the physical and spatial contraction of the state’s productive geography – tracking roads, fields, courts, and checkpoints not as lines on a map but as the active arteries and organs of shadow order territorial control. It carries seven indicators – one more than the Money vector, reflecting the greater empirical complexity of territorial sovereignty decoupling across its physical, spatial, and institutional dimensions.

L1 – State Security Footprint Index

The true geographic and operational reach of formal state security forces versus the territorial perimeter dominated by a Shadow Order – capturing whether formal forces are garrisoned in isolated urban barracks or can safely and consistently patrol the interior. The critical distinction is between operational and ceremonial security presence. A formal security convoy that moves only between fixed points on a predictable schedule without engaging shadow order activity scores closer to ten than zero regardless of its physical presence within the zone.

L2 – Shadow Checkpoint Density

The frequency, location, and structural permanence of non-state territorial control points and roadblocks relative to formal military or police outposts along critical transit corridors. Scored through direct field count of shadow checkpoints per kilometre of transit corridor and transporter testimony on checkpoint consistency and enforcement character. Transport cost differentials between zones with and without confirmed shadow checkpoints provide a corroborating economic signal – shadow checkpoint taxation embeds itself in transport pricing as a structurally observable market reality.

L3 – Agricultural Displacement Rate

The percentage of fertile productive agrarian land vacated, abandoned, or forcibly occupied due to non-state violence or shadow order territorial control. L3 requires a pre-decoupling baseline to distinguish sovereignty-driven displacement from natural causes.

L4 – Transport Route Capture

The proportion of primary and secondary movement corridors controlled, monitored, or systematically taxed by shadow actors. Analytically distinct from L2 – shadow checkpoint density measures the nodes of control while transport route capture measures the arteries. A zone can have low checkpoint density but high route capture where shadow authority is enforced through mobile rather than fixed control mechanisms. Both indicators are necessary for a complete territorial sovereignty picture.

L5 – Formal Justice Absence Index

The physical retreat, closure, or total operational paralysis of state magistrate courts, police divisions, and formal legal enforcement mechanisms – and the degree to which shadow order dispute resolution has filled the resulting vacuum. L5 is directly corroborated by MD1 – Population Trust Transfer Index – in the Mind vector. Where formal justice is entirely absent and shadow dispute resolution commands community compliance, the Mind vector should independently corroborate through measurably reduced institutional trust in formal state authority.

L6 – Farming Levy

The shadow order’s territorial taxation of the right to occupy and use productive agricultural land – imposing recurring levies on farmers for continued land access, distinct from harvest tax which extracts from yield. L6 is the Land vector’s most direct empirical link to the Money vector. Its placement in the Land vector reflects its primary character as a territorial control mechanism – the shadow order asserting ownership rights over productive land rather than merely extracting commercial revenue from it. Farming levies must be distinguished from legitimate customary land use tribute systems that predate decoupling and carry community consent.

L7 – Population Displacement and Return Patterns

The degree to which civilian movement into, out of, and within the zone reflects confidence in or fear of the prevailing territorial authority. L7 is simultaneously a territorial sovereignty signal and a cognitive sovereignty signal – people vote with their feet for the authority they believe can protect them. A pre-decoupling baseline is required for reliable scoring.

The Mind Vector: Cognitive Sovereignty Indicators

This vector targets the ultimate battlefield – the invisible shift in human consciousness that determines which authority the population recognises, obeys, and protects. The Mind vector is the most methodologically challenging of the three because cognitive sovereignty is the least directly observable dimension of decoupling. Its six indicators are therefore designed around behavioural proxies – what people demonstrably do – rather than attitudinal surveys alone, which are unreliable in Shadow Order environments where respondents self-censor.

MD1 – Population Trust Transfer Index

The measurable expressed shift in trust away from formal judicial and administrative state bodies toward alternative traditional, religious, or armed arbiters. MD1 measures institutional trust – which body the population believes has legitimate authority to govern and adjudicate. Distinct from MD5 which measures immediate protection preference. Scored through civilian testimony on where disputes are taken first and observed attendance at formal versus shadow arbitration sessions. Behavioural proxies override attitudinal responses where the two diverge.

MD2 – Compliance Orientation Score

The behavioural alignment of the population – whether daily rules of engagement are oriented toward formal state law or Shadow Order mandates. MD2 is the Mind vector’s most behaviourally grounded indicator, scored through five specific observable markers: property boundary compliance, movement compliance, commercial compliance, dispute initiation, and civic duty orientation. Its five-marker architecture ensures scoring is based on observable conduct rather than stated attitudes – making it the most resistant to self-censorship bias.

MD3 – Institutional Legitimacy Deficit

The structural gap between the formal state’s rhetorical claims to sovereign authority and the population’s de facto acknowledgement of that authority as binding. Legitimacy is the deepest cognitive dimension – distinct from trust and compliance. Trust asks whether an institution will serve well. Compliance asks whether its rules are followed. Legitimacy asks whether the institution has the right to govern at all. Legitimacy loss is the hardest to reverse – it survives even after security conditions improve and requires active legitimacy reconstruction rather than merely security restoration.

MD4 – Narrative Control Index

Which actor controls the dominant explanatory framework governing how the population interprets local events, security incidents, and governance decisions. Scored through four observable proxies: crisis explanation – whose account the population repeats and acts upon; warning compliance – whose security directives the population follows; information source preference – where the population turns first for zone intelligence; and blame attribution – which actor the population holds responsible for governance failure. Behavioural responses to information override stated media preferences where the two diverge.

MD5 – Protection Source Preference

The truest vote of confidence a population can cast – who they turn to first when physical safety is threatened. MD5 measures the immediate survival decision made under conditions of acute threat rather than general institutional preference. It is the Mind vector’s most immediate and least self-censored indicator – crisis-moment behaviour bypasses the social desirability bias that distorts attitudinal surveys in Shadow Order environments. Scored through community testimony on contact sequence during the most recent security incident and response time comparison between formal state and shadow order intervention.

MD6 – Socialisation and Education Capture

The degree to which the shadow order has extended cognitive sovereignty reach into the formation of the next generation – through control of schooling, religious instruction, youth mobilisation, and community socialisation channels. MD6 is the Mind vector’s leading indicator – it measures future cognitive sovereignty trajectory rather than current alignment. A zone scoring low on MD1 through MD5 but high on MD6 is in a deceptively stable condition. The next generation is being formed entirely within shadow order cognitive parameters while current cognitive sovereignty appears partially intact. A high MD6 score is a critical forward-looking warning signal regardless of the current Mind vector composite score.

The foregoing presents the nineteen universal indicators of the DSI and the general principles governing their application. The detailed scoring rubrics, operational thresholds, context-specific sub-indicators, evidence protocols and aggregation procedures will be set out in the DSI Methodology and Indicator Manual, to be issued by the Sundiata Post Knowledge Lab (SPKL).

However, scoring the nineteen indicators is only the first step. How those scores interact across the three vectors, and what they imply for the order in which sovereignty can be restored, is the subject of the next instalment.

Brazil would on October 25, 2026, take the hand of Nigeria to political school, the second in one month. The first one, like in kindergarten, Brazil showed the world, nay, Nigeria, that it is possible for a developing country to conduct an election without rancour, vote buying, and violence.

Coming closely to the time Nigeria is about to go to the polls in January, 2027, there is no reason to give excuses by Nigeria. The first round of the presidential election in Brazil took place on October 4, 2026; in that election, the incumbent President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro locked horns looking for a fair share of the 158.7 million votes from voters, in the end, no ballot box snatching, no burning of results sheets, and results were known same night, while the runoff was rescheduled for October 25.

With a population of approximately 213.8 million to 214.2 million people in 2026, according to Worldometer Brazil tracker, Nigeria’s own population hovers around same figures.

Indeed, Nigeria and Brazil share a lot in common: large population, diverse federation, high inequality, and history of military rule. Brazil has over 158.7 million voters while Nigeria has over 103 million registered voters. Such high volume of voters in Brazil is as a result of the fact that Brazil made voting compulsory for every adult citizen, unlike Nigeria where voting is optional.

The first round of election in Brazil has come and gone, with so many lessons, however, the issue is, if a country like Nigeria is ready and humble enough to learn without feeling too big.

Election in Nigeria has become a four-yearly national political event which keeps testing the nation’s strength, maturity, civility, unity, among other indices of civilization, sometimes it appears the nation will simply break away, but in the end it will not, some see it as a game, some see it as serious business, while still it is seen as a necessary end because there is no other credible alternative to democracy.

Indeed, Nigeria’s democracy continues to go by the baptismal name, nascent, in another it is still a young adult, since independence and its republican stage from there up to the present Fourth Republic. Many a time, the nation’s elections are characterised by violence, rigging, cutting corners, many a time election are rigged before the actual voting, many a time, constituencies are delineated to favour a political party, codenamed gerrymandering, sometimes it comes in the form of appointments of the members of electoral commission, they tell them that they are independent, when they are not really.

Again, they make sure they make the judiciary beggarly by appointing their cronies as those in charge of the judiciary so that what they need is for the electoral umpire to pronounce them winners, the rest would be handled by the judiciary, you don’t need to call them, already they know what to do. The pre-election rigging did not exclude those that make laws as they continually create loopholes for manipulation to favour the highest bidders, depending if the election is at state or National level. As in Nigeria, we talk about using paper to right result when there is network issues, but Nigerians have argued that such clause has no meaning, that if bandits, terrorists and kidnappers in the remotest forests can make videos of their activities and there is no network issues, that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, should do better by finding solution so as to make the election in Nigeria truly electronic, because technology doesn’t lie. As it is Brazil has been using complete electronic means to conduct election since 1996.

Of course, that is the bane of Nigeria’s electoral system. From the First Republic down the line, election in Nigeria has never come without complaints. The one that remains indelible in the minds of the people is the 1993 election, adjudged to be the freest and fairest in Nigeria, but what happened, the then military president, General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the election.

It took the doggedness and patriotic stubbornness of the then Chairman of the Electoral Commission, the late Professor Humphrey Nwosu to declare that result, and of course, the military authorities never liked what he did, in fact Prof Nwosu, it was who made it possible for Nigerians to know that the election was won by the accountant-turned businessman, socialite and philanthropist, Moshood Abiola.

That election, if you noticed, is also indicative of lack of accountability in our nation. In a twinkling of an eye, General Babangida cancelled years of planning, sleeplessness, dreams, party engagements, public and individual spending and all of that went down the drains. How much was spent in that 1996 election? The parties that took part in the 1993 general election spent between N120 million to N1 billion.

Even looking at it, it is not for want of good laws, but it is the potentialities of the politicians to cut corners, because they know that this is a game where there is no second position, the nation also practices winner-takes-all, so, it becomes a do-or-die affair, especially when that politician has either not done his homework and assignment well, he wants a shortcut by all means.

Obviously, Brazil used 100 percent electronic voting machines, which they have started using since 1996. No paper ballot to snatch, no ink to smear. All that was needed was, you press, it records, it transmits encrypted to the electoral court (TSE) and Result of the election was in 2-3 hours.

In contrast, for Nigeria, BVAS/IReV is good progress, but still depends on manual collation and upload, which creates loopholes.

In the Brazil presidential election, because no one got 50percent + 1, the two presidential contenders are now expected to go to a runoff on October 25, 2026, to decide the winner. That’s where the real lesson for Nigeria is.

In the Brazilian Election the whole votes were counted same day with electronic machines, by TSE, no ballot snatching. What is TSE? The Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or Superior Electoral Court in English, is not just an organiser, it is a court. It can arrest, fine candidates, remove fake news within hours, but in Nigeria, INEC is administrative. It still needs police and courts to enforce. Brazil shows that when the electoral umpire has judicial power, impunity drops.

Another lesson is that voting is compulsory in Brazil, 53percent of voters are women. Civic education starts early. People see election as duty, not do-or-die. In Nigeria, there is still voter apathy and thuggery, voting is also optional.

In Brazil no godfather control of ballot materials. Also in Brazil, there is no ‘collation centre chaos’ because there is almost nothing to collate physically. Logistics failure is near zero because machines are deployed weeks ahead and tested publicly.

There is swift punishment for electoral violence, and in Brazil, trying to disrupt election is a federal crime with immediate arrest. In Nigeria, ballot snatchers often walk the street free, and top politicians usually what happens to voting from their mansions.

If we want Brazil-like elections, we must move from human-managed to system-managed elections, make BVAS work offline and transmit automatically, give INEC prosecutorial powers like Brazil’s TSE, and punish electoral offenders on election day, not 3 years after.

Brazil proved that even a deeply polarized country, son of jailed ex-president vs sitting president can be in contest without violence as the system makes violence useless.

Nigeria must learn from international best practices even as it concerns election. The will of the people must be upheld in all election, just as Brazil has just demonstrated.

Idris Shuaibu, Kaduna-born politician contesting the ADC governorship position in his state, said: ‘The current general election taking place in Brazil is a test case for democracy especially Nigeria. As usual, it’s a cycle that’s usual after every 5 years. It’s a contest between the two ideological divides of the left and the right. Current President Lula Da Silva and his long-standing rival Flavio Bolsonaro of the left and the right of the centre respectively. Lula scored about 46 percent while Flavio scored 47percent of the votes cast.

For Adetokunbo Pearse, no country in the world is perfect. ‘No democracy is without flaws’, he said.

He further said: ‘You notice even though they would say there is corruption in Brazil, the electoral commission would do the right thing; if he doesn’t do the right thing, they would kill the national chairman, they would burn his house down. In France, 6000 people arrested, over 200 schools shut down, 20 schools burnt, teachers, parents, students’ unions, on the streets asking for good education’ as the people protest.

Lagos hospitality and lifestyle businesses are increasingly looking beyond social media visibility for customer retention, repeat patronage and technology-driven engagement. This

was a central theme at Awari Business Connect (ABC) 2026, where Awari unveiled an

expanded technology platform designed to connect consumers with the businesses and

experiences shaping the city’s lifestyle economy.

Held on October 16 at the Radisson Blu Anchorage Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos, the event

brought together entrepreneurs, hospitality operators, tourism stakeholders, technology

companies, creators, and government representatives to explore growth opportunities in

the city’s expanding lifestyle sector.

Formerly known as the lifestyle discovery and media platform Lost in Lagos, Awari is evolving into a technology ecosystem that helps consumers discover places, events, and experiences while equipping businesses with tools to attract, engage, and retain customers.

The event showcased this evolution through product demonstrations, industry conversations, and announcements, including a partnership with the Lagos State Government’s tourism authorities and the introduction of the Awari Loyalty Network

(ALN).

Speaking at the event, Tannaz Bahnam, founder and chief executive officer of Awari, reflected on the company’s 16-year journey and its evolution alongside Lagos’ growing cultural and commercial influence.

‘For 16 years, we have been learning how people explore their cities and what businesses need

to reach them. As the world increasingly looks to Lagos for its art, music, fashion, food, culture

and creativity, Awari brings those lessons together in a new way.

‘We are moving from helping people discover where to go to building an ecosystem that helps

them experience more of their city and helps the businesses behind those experiences grow,’ Bahnam said.

Awari Business Connect is about connection because our restaurants, stores, creators, and

entrepreneurs are what make a city worth discovering. In many ways, you are Awari.’

The platform’s expanded capabilities address a challenge facing businesses across

restaurants, hotels, entertainment, wellness, retail and other lifestyle categories: turning

consumer interest into transactions and lasting relationships.

Oladapo Bolarinwa, head of Technology and Co-Founder of Awari, explained that the

platform was developed to address these challenges by bringing discovery, engagement and

business tools into a more connected environment.

‘Businesses are constantly competing for attention on conventional social media platforms,

where their content sits alongside influencer posts, entertainment and breaking news. Even

when customers show interest, businesses still have to manage enquiries across different

channels before that interest translates into a transaction.

‘Awari is designed to give businesses a more intentional environment where customers can

discover their offerings and engage with them. By bringing visibility, promotions, ticketing

and loyalty tools together, we want to help businesses move beyond being seen to building

stronger customer relationships and encouraging repeat patronage.’

Through features including Awari Social, Explore and Ads Manager, businesses can

showcase their offerings, publish promotional content and reach potential customers. The

platform also features Ask Awari, an AI-powered discovery tool that helps users find

recommendations and information, and Awari Assist, designed to help businesses manage

customer enquiries and facilitate transactions.

Additional capabilities, including bookings, ticketing, promotions, customer insights and

loyalty incentives, support the broader objective of connecting consumer discovery with

business growth.

A key announcement at ABC 2026 was the introduction of the Awari Loyalty Network,

scheduled to launch in January 2027. The platform is designed to connect corporate loyalty

programmes, lifestyle merchants and customers, creating opportunities for consumers to

redeem loyalty benefits across participating businesses. For merchants, the network offers

a potential route to reach new customer segments and encourage repeat spending beyond

their individual establishments.

The event also highlighted Awari’s partnership with the Lagos State Government’s tourism

authorities, reflecting a shared ambition to strengthen Lagos’ position as a global lifestyle

destination. As the city attracts growing attention for its hospitality, food, fashion, music,

arts and entertainment, collaboration between government and private-sector businesses

will be important in improving the visibility and accessibility of its diverse experiences.

Through ABC, the company aims to create a platform for practical conversations,

partnerships and technology adoption among the businesses contributing to Lagos’ lifestyle

economy. The 2026 edition reinforced the importance of connecting discovery with

customer experience and retention, while demonstrating how technology can support

businesses as they compete in an increasingly dynamic market.

Political allies of President Bola Tinubu have announced a target of 18.7 million votes for his 2027 re-election, as the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seeks to translate its dominance of state governments into electoral gains.

The target is more than double the 8.79 million votes he secured in the 2023 election.

The announced pledges, by governors and political leaders across eight states and regions, show the intended scale of mobilisation effort ahead of the next presidential election.

However, the targets have drawn reactions from analysts who have questioned how realistic those promises are.

The APC currently controls 31 of Nigeria’s 36 governors, giving Tinubu’s party an extensive network of state-level political structures to support its re-election campaign.

Two opposition governors have also publicly declared support for the president’s second-term bid, potentially widening his support beyond the ruling party.

Who promised what?

A breakdown of the announced targets, published by StatiSense, shows that political leaders in the North Central states have pledged six million votes, the largest contribution in the projection. Akwa Ibom follows with 3.5 million votes even though the state has a total of 2.6 million registered voters.

His Edo State counterpart, Monday Okpebholo, promised a target of 2.5 million votes from a total of 2.865 million registered voters in the state.

Dapo Abiodun, Ogun State governor, has pledged two million votes, matching the target attributed to Benue State. Ademola Adeleke, Osun State governor, is associated with a target of 1.5 million votes, while Oyo and Ekiti states have targets of 800,000 and 400,000 votes, respectively.

Combined, the announced targets amount to 18.7 million votes, exceeding Tinubu’s 2023 nationwide tally by 9.91 million.

The promised votes also represent 75.1 percent of all total votes recorded for the 2023 presidential election.

Yet the scale of the pledges interrogates how effectively political leaders can translate their influence over state governments into presidential votes, particularly in states where historical voting patterns have frequently diverged from governors’ party affiliations.

Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, no presidential candidate has won 75.1percent of total votes in a presidential election. The lowest percentage recorded for a sitting president since 1999 was during the 2023 presidential elections, where Tinubu recorded 36.61 percent of the total valid votes in the election.

A recent electoral analysis by VIISAUS, a research and data analytics organisation, examining five presidential election cycles between 2003 and 2023, identified 19 states as swing states, 11 as consistent aligners and six as consistent non-aligners.

The analysis found that governors’ parties won the presidential vote in their respective states in 57.8 percent of the election cycles examined. This suggests that control of a state government can provide a political advantage but does not guarantee that voters will support the governor’s party in a presidential election.

The 19 swing states are particularly significant for the 2027 contest because their voting patterns have changed across election cycles. They include all six North Central states, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau, as well as Lagos, Oyo, Ekiti, Rivers, Imo, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi and Sokoto.

The North Central region’s six-million-vote target is therefore especially consequential. Although the region represents a major mobilisation opportunity for Tinubu’s campaign, VIISAUS classifies every state in the zone as competitive based on historical voting alignment.

The report also identifies Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Ogun, Osun, Taraba and Zamfara as consistent aligners, having voted for their governors’ parties in at least four of the five election cycles examined.

However, the classification is based on historical patterns rather than a prediction of the 2027 outcome. The 2023 election, when all five South East states voted for the Labour Party presidential candidate regardless of the party controlling their governorships, illustrates how candidate appeal and wider political conditions can override established alignments.

For Tinubu’s campaign, the challenge will be to convert governors’ pledges and the APC’s extensive state-level presence into actual ballots while competing in states where voting behaviour has proved less predictable.

With the 2027 election approaching, the announced 18.7 million-vote target provides a measure of the campaign’s ambition. Whether it translates into electoral gains will depend on voter preferences, campaign mobilisation and the ability of political leaders to deliver support beyond public declarations.

David Omogbemi, a political analyst, said the ambitions of the governors may not translate into votes considering the rising cost of transportation and the cost of living crisis.

‘It sounds very unrealistic, because even during his initial time, you saw the margin, so I doubt that would change just by having most of the governors in his party. Also, don’t forget that some of these governors are also fighting their own battles. Apart from that, there is the big challenge of the cost of living crisis; you saw on Saturday when the president himself admitted that there is poverty and hunger in the country,’ Omogbemi said.

He added that there would have to be a major turnaround in the cost of living for many Nigerians before Tinubu can move any closer to the promised votes.

SOS Children’s Villages Nigeria says it has reached approximately 650 households in Edo State through a three-year development intervention, as it prepares to build on the gains with a new project focused on strengthening the resilience of children, young people, families and communities.

Eghosa Erhumwunse, Country Director of SOS Children’s Villages Nigeria, disclosed this during a stakeholder engagement in Benin City to review the achievements of the outgoing project and consolidate its impact in partnership with the Edo State Government, community leaders, development partners and beneficiaries.

Erhumwunse said the intervention prioritised vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations, particularly families and children often excluded from mainstream development programmes, while strengthening the capacity of communities to support their welfare and long-term development.

He said the project covered 400 households in its first phase and another 250 in the second phase, bringing the total to approximately 650 households. Based on an estimated average of four persons per household, the intervention potentially reached about 2,600 people.

The country director said the organisation considered community ownership essential to the sustainability of development interventions, stressing that families and communities must be empowered to maintain the gains made after a project ends.

He explained that the completion of the three-year programme would not signal the end of the organisation’s activities in Edo, as it was preparing to introduce a new initiative, Seed of Change, to address broader challenges affecting children, young people, families and their communities.

According to him, the new project, also supported by the German government, would build on previous interventions by strengthening resilience and promoting systemic changes that can sustain development outcomes beyond the period of donor funding.

Erhumwunse described the organisation as an implementing partner that facilitates collaboration between the donor and communities in Edo, noting that the progress recorded depended on the collective contributions of government institutions, community leaders, families, young people and other development partners.

Joy Irenonsen Ihensekhien, Permanent Secretary of the Edo State Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development, who represented the commissioner, Eugenia Abdallah, commended SOS Children’s Villages Nigeria for its partnership with the state government and its support for vulnerable women, children and communities.

Ihensekhien said the ministry contributed to the programme through manpower, training facilities and other forms of support for capacity-building activities designed to empower beneficiaries and improve their ability to become self-reliant.

She expressed the state government’s appreciation for the collaboration, noting that partnerships between public institutions and development organisations remained important in helping vulnerable households cope with prevailing economic pressures.

District Governor, Rotary District 9112 Olayioye Abidoye, has described sports as a vital tool for driving Rotary’s mission of service to humanity.

Abidoye stated this at a media parley in Lagos, heralding the Rotary Sports Festival (RoSFest) 2027, emphasising that sports foster unity, teamwork and healthy living, which align with the organisation’s core value of impacting society,

Rotary Sports Festival is an annual event, a six-month fitness and fellowship fiesta designed to keep Rotarians mentally and physically sound to carry out humanitarian service.

According to the Rotary District Governor, ‘When you participate in sports, you are mentally sound, you are physically sound and your health is in the right frame to do service and to function in your family. We Rotarians who have dedicated our lives to serving humanity must be fit mentally, physically and health-wise,’

While stating that District 9112 currently has over 2,700 members across 96 Rotary Clubs, which he supervises, he said that RoSFest was one way of taking care of those who take care of others.

Enumerating some of the interventions that his organisation had embarked on, he said it included: donation of learning materials to Ojuwoye Inclusive Nursery and Primary School for children with visual and hearing impairments, observance of Disaster Relief Day, and screening of public primary school pupils for sight and hearing defects under the Legacy Programme to prevent mislabelling poor performance as dullness.

On the other hand, he appealed to Rotarians to ensure effective participation at RosFest 2027, quoting WHO’s definition of health: ‘Health is wealth. When you are not healthy, that is the only thing you think about. We can only mind other people’s business when we are healthy.’

On her part, Chairman of the RoSFest 2027 Committee, who is also the past president, Chinyere Madueke-Onwo, described RoSFest 2027 as a platform for strengthening the relationship between Rotarians and Rotaractors, adding, ‘We recognise the energy, creativity and enthusiasm that Rotaractors bring to the Rotary family, and we look forward to meaningful collaboration that will promote unity, leadership, development and active participation”

She further explained that the RoSFest 2027 edition would feature12 sporting activities, six indoor games which include Ayyolopon, draughts, Scrabble, chess, table tennis and snooker.

While the six outdoor games, she said include: 100m dash for both male and women, relay race, tug of war, football, volley ball and golf.

The objective, Chairman of RoSFest 2027 Committee said was to create opportunities for participation, healthy competition fellowship while encouraging Rotarians and other participants to embrace physical fitness and an active lifestyle.

‘We intend to make this edition more inclusive, engaging and competitive, with every participating Club having the opportunity to demonstrate its sporting strength and team spirit. Medals and points shall also be awarded to Clubs according to merits.

‘RoSFest 2027 presents a valuable opportunity for corporate organisations, institutions, individuals and Clubs to associate with an initiative that promotes health, youth development, community engagement and excellence.

On his part, Augustine Irabor of Rotary Club of Ikoyi and member of RoSFest Committee, explained that the media parley aimed to announce dates and mobilise Rotarians and the public.

Irabor, who was among those honoured for their roles in the last edition for participating in football, tug of war and golf, said RoSFest awareness is growing.

While recalling that last year’s RoSFest recorded huge success, he said that this year’s edition would be more impactful.

It is interesting to note that the qualifying games/tournaments will run from 31st January to 31st March 2027. While 2nd April would witness the opening ceremony of RoSFest Week.

Fashion is one of those industries that looks incredibly beautiful from the outside. We see the collections, the campaigns, the fashion shows, the carefully styled photographs, and the excitement that comes with launching something new. What we do not always see is the amount of work that goes into keeping a fashion business alive after the excitement has settled.

I have come to understand that there is a significant difference between creating a beautiful product and building a successful fashion brand.

One requires creativity. The other requires creativity, business discipline, consistency, financial understanding, and the ability to make difficult decisions.

And while the fashion industry continues to attract talented designers and entrepreneurs, I believe we need to have more honest conversations about the business behind the beauty.

As the founder of Paciencia, a Nigerian fashion brand specialising in handmade leather bags, this is a subject that matters deeply to me. Building a brand has reinforced my belief that good design is only the beginning. The real challenge is creating a business that customers trust, that can compete in its market, and that has the capacity to grow.

Fashion Is Creative, but It Is Also Commercial

One of the biggest misconceptions about the fashion industry is that a great product will automatically find its audience.

It is an understandable assumption. When you have invested time and effort into creating something you believe in, it is natural to expect people to recognise its value.

But the market does not always work that way.

A beautifully designed handbag can attract attention without necessarily generating sales. A fashion collection can receive praise without producing enough revenue to cover its costs. A brand can become popular on social media and still struggle to remain profitable.

This is the reality that every emerging fashion entrepreneur must eventually confront.

Creativity gives a brand its identity, but commercial understanding gives it the opportunity to survive.

Fashion entrepreneurs must understand their customers, their costs, their pricing, and the market they are trying to serve. They must know what makes their products relevant and why someone should choose them over the many alternatives available.

These are not conversations that diminish creativity. They are the conversations that make it possible to keep creating.

The Real Cost of Building a Nigerian Fashion Brand

Running a fashion business in Nigeria comes with its own set of challenges.

The cost of materials, production, packaging, logistics, marketing, and daily operations can place considerable pressure on emerging brands. For businesses working with leather and other specialised materials, maintaining quality while managing costs requires particularly careful decisions.

There is also the question of pricing.

Customers want beautiful, durable products at prices they consider reasonable. At the same time, businesses must account for the actual cost of producing those products, compensate the people involved, and generate enough income to continue operating.

Finding that balance is not always straightforward.

At Paciencia, where our focus is on handmade leather bags, I believe it is important to recognise the value of craftsmanship in the broader conversation about pricing.

A handmade product involves more than the cost of its raw materials. There is the design process, the skill required to bring the product to life, the attention given to its finishing, and the time invested in making sure the final piece reflects the brand’s standards.

When consumers compare handmade leather bags with mass-produced alternatives, they may not immediately see these differences.

That is why fashion brands must become better at communicating value.

We cannot assume customers will automatically understand what goes into our products. We have to tell those stories clearly, while ensuring that the quality of what we offer supports the promises we make.

A Fashion Brand Is Not the Same as a Fashion Business

I believe this distinction deserves more attention, particularly among emerging Nigerian fashion entrepreneurs.

Starting a fashion brand has become more accessible in many ways. Social media allows entrepreneurs to introduce their products to customers without immediately investing in physical retail spaces. Digital platforms have created opportunities for independent designers to build audiences and sell directly to consumers.

These developments are encouraging, but they have also made it easy to confuse visibility with business success.

Having a recognisable brand name, an attractive Instagram page, or a successful product launch does not necessarily mean a business is financially healthy.

A sustainable fashion business needs systems.

It needs a clear understanding of inventory, cash flow, production timelines, customer service, and profitability. It needs processes that do not collapse every time demand increases or an unexpected challenge arises.

Most importantly, it needs a long-term vision.

The question should not only be, ‘How do I sell my next collection?’

It should also be, ‘What kind of business am I building, and will the decisions I make today support where I want it to be in five years?’

That shift in thinking is essential.

Why Brand Identity Matters in a Crowded Fashion Market

The Nigerian fashion industry is filled with creativity. New clothing labels, handbag brands, accessories businesses, and independent designers continue to enter the market, giving consumers more options than ever before.

While this is a positive development, it also means that standing out requires more than simply having attractive products.

A brand must have a recognisable identity.

For me, this is one of the most important lessons in the business of fashion.

Customers should be able to understand what a brand represents, the type of products it creates, and the value it offers.

At Paciencia, our identity is closely connected to handmade leather bags, thoughtful design, and an appreciation for craftsmanship.

I believe a handbag should be both practical and expressive. It should serve a purpose in the everyday life of the person carrying it while contributing to their personal style.

That understanding influences the kind of brand we are building.

It is also why I believe emerging Nigerian handbag brands must resist the pressure to follow every trend.

Trends can create opportunities, but they can also distract businesses from their original vision.

There is nothing wrong with responding to changing consumer preferences. Fashion is constantly evolving, after all. But a brand should be able to evolve without losing the qualities that make it distinctive.

A strong identity gives customers a reason to remember you. Consistent delivery gives them a reason to return.

The Customer Is at the Centre of Every Successful Fashion Business

One thing I believe fashion entrepreneurs must never forget is that we are not creating products for ourselves alone.

We are creating for people with different lifestyles, expectations, preferences, and purchasing decisions.

Understanding those people is a major part of building a successful brand.

In the handmade leather bag business, for example, customers may be drawn to a product because of its appearance, but their satisfaction often depends on much more.

They consider how comfortable it is to carry, how easily it fits into their daily routine, the quality of its finishing, and whether it meets their expectations over time.

The experience does not end when a customer makes a payment.

Communication, packaging, delivery, and after-sales support all influence how people remember a brand.

For emerging fashion businesses, these details can become powerful competitive advantages.

A customer who has a positive experience is more likely to recommend a brand, make another purchase, or become part of the community around it.

And in an industry where trust is so important, those relationships are invaluable.

Nigerian Fashion Brands Must Think Beyond Social Media

Social media has played a significant role in the growth of independent fashion businesses. It has made it easier for emerging brands to reach audiences, showcase products, and communicate directly with potential customers.

But I believe fashion entrepreneurs need to think beyond social media as their primary growth strategy.

An online following is useful, but it is not a substitute for a sustainable business model.

Brands need to invest in discoverability, professional websites, customer relationships, retail opportunities, and distribution channels that allow them to reach people beyond their existing followers.

For Nigerian leather bag brands like Paciencia, having a strong digital presence is about more than posting attractive product photographs.

It is about helping customers discover the brand when they are actively searching for handmade leather bags, Nigerian handbag designers, or accessories that reflect their personal style.

It is also about making the buying experience clear and convenient.

The businesses that will grow are not necessarily those making the most noise online. They are the ones that understand how to turn attention into trust, trust into purchases, and purchases into lasting customer relationships.

The Opportunity for Nigerian Leather Goods and Accessories Brands

When discussing the future of Nigerian fashion, I believe we need to pay more attention to the business potential of accessories.

Clothing often dominates the conversation, but handbags, footwear, and leather goods are important parts of the fashion economy.

A well-designed handbag has the ability to become part of someone’s everyday life. It can move between different occasions, complement different outfits, and remain relevant beyond a particular fashion season.

This creates opportunities for brands that understand design, functionality, and consumer needs.

There is also room for Nigerian fashion businesses to develop stronger positions in the premium and contemporary accessories markets.

However, that opportunity must be supported by consistent product quality, credible branding, and sound business practices.

We cannot build competitive fashion businesses on creativity alone.

We need to pay attention to sourcing, production standards, customer expectations, and how our products are presented in the marketplace.

I would love to see more Nigerian handmade leather bag brands gain recognition for the quality of their work, not simply because they represent local creativity, but because they offer products that customers genuinely value.

That is an ambition I carry into the journey of building Paciencia.

The Future of Fashion Belongs to Brands That Understand Both Design and Business

I am optimistic about the future of the Nigerian fashion industry.

There is no shortage of talent, ambition, or creativity. What we need is an equally strong commitment to building businesses that can support those qualities over time.

We need more conversations about financial literacy, production efficiency, customer retention, access to funding, and the realities of scaling a fashion business.

We need emerging designers to understand that business knowledge is not separate from their creative journey. It is part of what makes that journey sustainable.

And we need consumers, investors, and industry stakeholders to recognise the economic potential of fashion beyond the glamour associated with it.

For me, building Paciencia is an opportunity to bring these ideas together.

It is about creating handmade leather bags that reflect our design philosophy while building a Nigerian fashion business with a clear identity and long-term ambition.

There will always be new trends, new collections, and new brands entering the industry. That is part of what makes fashion exciting.

But the brands that stand the test of time will be those that understand what they offer, who they serve, and how to deliver value consistently.

A beautiful product may introduce a brand to the world, but it is the strength of the business behind it that determines how long that brand remains relevant.

That, to me, is the real business of fashion.

Trade, investment and cooperation initiatives are opening new possibilities for all three economies. Whether they lead to shared prosperity or simply reproduce familiar patterns of dependence will depend on how value chains, financing and risks are organised.

About this time last year, Ambassador Geert Muylle’s reflections on the pressures reshaping Belgian industrial supply chains prompted me to examine the possibilities of moving from dependency to partnership. The argument was that Europe’s search for economic resilience could meet Africa’s demand for greater productive participation. Both needed to reconsider the terms of their engagement. As we approach the Nigeria Belgium Luxembourg Business Forum in Brussels on 28-30 October, the question has become more demanding. What would demonstrate that partnership is changing the distribution of opportunity?

My stake in both Europe and Africa makes that question personal. I want Nigerian businesses to retain more value from what they produce. I also want Belgian and Luxembourg enterprises to secure dependable returns from partnerships that last. Fair trade must make those ambitions compatible. Seven developments offer a useful basis for judging the possibilities. They include changing commercial flows, investment decisions and new cooperation initiatives. Their significance lies in the connections between them.

A contraction that should change the conversation

The first development is uncomfortable for an otherwise celebratory forum narrative. The Belgian Foreign Trade Agency’s May 2026 bilateral note records Belgian goods exports to Nigeria falling from approximately pound 4.09 billion in 2024 to pound 1.27 billion in 2025, a decline of 68.9 per cent. Belgian goods imports from Nigeria also fell, by 14.6 per cent, to pound 474.9 million. These are Belgian-reported merchandise figures, rather than a complete account of investment or services. The figures challenge the assumption that diplomatic activity automatically produces expanding commerce. They also invite a more useful question than how quickly the old totals can be restored. Which parts of the relationship should grow next?

A relationship built around supplying finished products can generate substantial turnover while leaving limited productive capacity with the buyer. A smaller flow of equipment, engineering and investment could, under the right conditions, help establish enterprises that support decades of exchange. Falling trade is no achievement in itself. But restoring dependence should not become the measure of recovery.

Refining is changing the direction of opportunity

The second development supplies an important part of that context. The US Energy Information Administration reported in August that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 in 2025. It links the broader expansion in Nigerian product shipments to the Dangote refinery. These are Europe-wide flows; they should not be presented as exports specifically to Belgium. Nor do they explain every movement in bilateral trade.

Their strategic meaning is nevertheless substantial. Nigerian processing capacity is changing what the country can offer international markets. For Belgian businesses, the response can include engineering services, industrial maintenance, storage, emissions management and partnerships in downstream manufacturing. Nigeria gains more when industrial expansion develops local suppliers and technical competence. Belgian firms gain when their expertise becomes part of a productive system with continuing demand.

The fair-trade test also applies within Nigeria. Domestic refining must deliver competitive markets, environmental responsibility and public value. Replacing external dependence with excessive domestic market power would leave an essential part of the task unfinished.

Cocoa opens a different bilateral future

The third development is the growing prominence of cocoa in the relationship. In its December 2025 account of the previous forum, Nigeria’s Ministry of Livestock Development reported the observation of Ambassador Pieter Leenknegt that cocoa had overtaken crude oil as Nigeria’s leading export to Belgium. This is a meaningful change in the composition of engagement, although commodity rankings alone cannot establish an industrial transformation. Cocoa gives both countries a reason to think beyond the shipment of beans. Nigerian fermentation, quality control and processing could be linked more deliberately to Belgian food manufacturing, technical expertise and distribution.

Each proposed investment would still need to establish its commercial case, including reliable power, competitive costs and applicable market-access conditions. Yet that is precisely the discussion worth having. How much processing can take place competitively in Nigeria? Which skills and equipment are required? What purchasing commitments would make investment credible? Fairness begins to become tangible when the producer can negotiate a larger role in the value chain, and the buyer obtains a more reliable, higher-quality supply.

Sustainability rules are becoming a test of partnership

The fourth development is the approaching application of the EU Deforestation Regulation, with the European Commission identifying 30 December 2026 as the application date. Cocoa is among the commodities covered. European operators’ obligations create information demands throughout their supply chains, including evidence about where commodities were produced.

This matters directly to Nigerian suppliers and Belgian buyers. Forest protection is a shared interest. But the distribution of compliance costs will influence whether the transition strengthens the relationship or excludes smaller producers. A fair response would combine purchasing commitments with practical support for farm mapping, traceability and producer training. Nigerian authorities and exporters must strengthen their own systems; European buyers should consider how their procurement terms can sustain that effort. Compliance could become a field of joint investment, including opportunities for Nigerian technology firms. It should also improve farmers’ ability to participate in formal markets. A system that can trace a bean back to a poor household should be capable of asking whether that household receives enough to sustain responsible production.

Livestock cooperation now needs investable projects

The fifth development is explicitly trilateral. The Ministry of Livestock Development reported that the 2025 forum endorsed a Nigeria-Belgium-Luxembourg Livestock Investment and Cooperation Platform, intended to advance partnerships, technology transfer, capacity building and bankable projects. Endorsement establishes an institutional opening; it does not establish that investment has closed or facilities are operating.

The opportunity is to turn that opening into a small portfolio of credible ventures. Cold-chain services, feed production, veterinary provision and dairy processing deserve appraisal against actual demand and operating conditions.

Nigeria can bring producers, enterprise and markets. Belgian partners can contribute relevant equipment and technical capabilities. Luxembourg’s financial ecosystem could help structure suitable investment vehicles and connect qualifying projects with investors.

The terms matter. Producers need transparent pricing and dependable payments. Investors need enforceable contracts. Projects need responsible land arrangements, animal-health safeguards, and workable community relationships. Those conditions are part of commercial durability.

Ports determine whether productive ambition travels

The sixth development concerns the infrastructure connecting these possibilities. Reporting on an April 2026 meeting between the Nigerian Ports Authority and Belgium’s ambassador described discussions on Belgian participation in Nigerian port modernisation, including infrastructure and operational efficiency. The public account supports an emerging cooperation agenda; it should not be treated as evidence of a completed financing package.

For an exporter, port performance can determine whether a good product reaches its buyer competitively. For an equipment supplier, delays and uncertainty can undermine an otherwise viable investment. Belgian maritime expertise therefore has value well beyond an individual construction contract. Partnerships should be judged by measurable improvements in clearance, cargo movement, and service reliability, alongside local maintenance and operational competence. Nigerian agencies must deliver the regulatory coordination that physical investment requires.

A fair corridor must serve businesses at both ends. More efficient movement of European imports alone would leave its productive promise incomplete. Nigerian exporters also need predictable access to the route.

Development finance is offering another opening

The seventh development is a concrete financing decision. In July 2026, Belgium’s development finance institution BIO approved a US$5 million investment in Acumen Resilient Agriculture Fund II. Nigeria is among the fund’s ten target countries. This is a regional fund investment, rather than a US$5 million allocation to Nigeria, but it identifies a route through which eligible Nigerian agribusinesses could access support.

Its relevance is the connection between agricultural resilience and investable enterprise. Productive partnerships need finance that recognises the costs of building supply systems and adapting to climate risk. Entrepreneurs still need sound governance and credible business models. Investors need to distinguish risks that can be reduced through technical support from those that require guarantees, different financing terms or a decision not to proceed. Calling a project promising cannot substitute for this work.

Luxembourg belongs in the financing discussion

Across these developments, Luxembourg’s contribution should be made specific. There is already a financial bridge to build upon: Nigerian Exchange records its 2019 cooperation agreement with the Luxembourg Stock Exchange and the subsequent cross-listing of Access Bank’s ?15 billion green bond. This is an earlier institutional foundation, not a newly announced 2026 transaction.

Its importance today is practical. Suitable Nigerian projects could be prepared for sustainable-finance markets through credible use-of-proceeds frameworks, external assessment and continuing reporting. Smaller ventures may first require aggregation or intermediary finance. A Luxembourg listing would neither guarantee affordable capital nor remove foreign-exchange risk. Projects earning Naira need financing structures that can withstand currency movements. Transparency about fees, ownership, and tax treatment must accompany any international structure. Luxembourg gains through financial services and investable opportunities; Nigeria gains only if the underlying assets become productive and financially sustainable.

The conversion platform the relationship needs

Taken together, these developments suggest a possible transition towards a relationship in which Nigeria participates more fully in production, Belgium earns returns from industrial and logistical expertise, and Luxembourg helps connect viable ventures with appropriate capital. The outcome will depend on choices still to be made.

Fair trade does not require identical trade balances or equal gains from every transaction. It requires meaningful room for each economy to develop capabilities, transparent allocation of risk and rewards, and commercial arrangements that can endure public scrutiny. Nigeria must improve its investment conditions. European partners must be willing to support productive participation as well as market access for their own firms. This is the context in which the Nigeria Belgium Luxembourg Business Forum is positioning itself as an indispensable conversion platform. Convened under the CBL-ACP Chamber, the 2026 edition combines plenary engagement with targeted business meetings and company visits. The forum programme places commercial priorities and implementation pathways at the centre of that approach.

The strongest contribution of the Business Forum is to bring the people who own an opportunity into direct discussion with those who can resolve its financing, technical or regulatory obstacles. A cocoa processor should leave with a clearer route to equipment, quality assurance and buyers. A livestock venture should establish what must happen before an investor can commit. A logistics proposal should identify the agencies and firms responsible for delivery.

To make this role indispensable, the forum is maintaining a disciplined process after Brussels: named project owners, agreed next steps and reviews at realistic intervals. A ninety-day review could distinguish opportunities that have advanced, those requiring further preparation and those that should be discontinued. Commercial confidentiality can be protected while aggregate progress is reported.

As someone involved in this work, I believe that is the standard we should welcome. The forum’s importance will grow through the transactions it helps make viable and the trust earned when participants follow through. Last year’s challenge was to recognise the opening for partnership. This year’s task is to organise the conversion into shared value. Brussels can become the place where the three economies turn that intention into commitments they can implement, measure and sustain.