Political surveys are snapshots of public sentiment. When properly analyzed, they reveal the direction of political outcomes.
The June 2026 Philippine Public Opinion Monitor (PPOM) of WR Numero Research provides precisely that insight. WR Numero has become one of the country’s leading and most credible survey organizations. Its quarterly surveys go beyond name recall and voting preferences. They track political loyalties, regional differences, public sentiments and voters’ willingness to change their minds.
In a nutshell, the latest PPOM survey reveals a country burdened by economic hardship, political division and growing dissatisfaction with President Marcos and government institutions. It also shows that the 2028 presidential election will not be a one-sided contest, but a highly competitive race.
The June survey was done by interviewing 1,432 Filipino adults in a multi-stage sampling method. It carries a national margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. WR Numero’s partnership with ABS-CBN News for Halalan 2025 further strengthens its credibility.
What does the latest survey tell us?
First, the Marcos political base is disintegrating. Only 18 percent of Filipinos now identify as Marcos supporters, down four more points since March. The Pink-Yellow bloc, meanwhile, rose three points to 20 percent, overtaking the Marcos bloc. The pro-Duterte faction remains the largest at 37 percent, but this is far below the Duterte’s high-water mark in 2022, when Sara Duterte won 61.5 percent of the vice presidential vote. The Duterte base has effectively been cut by almost half. Another 24 percent identify with none of the three political blocs.
This is an extraordinary reversal for both Marcos and Duterte. Remember that Marcos won the presidency in 2022 with 58.77 percent of the vote on the promise of unity. Four years later, his political base has fallen to third place to only 18 percent. The electorate finally realized that ‘unity’ was not a governing philosophy but a political ‘budol’ (ruse) with Bongbong Marcos as its chief promoter.
Further, 68 percent believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Fifty-five percent are dissatisfied with Marcos’ performance, while only 36 percent are satisfied. Economic distress is now more severe than it has been in years. Thirty-two percent of Filipinos struggle every day to afford food, household bills, transportation and other necessities. Another 29 percent face such hardship once or twice a week. In other words, six in 10 Filipinos regularly struggle just to survive.
Marcos has failed to ease the people’s plight even after four years in office and the survey shows it. Clearly, the demands of the presidency is proving much larger than Marcos’ capabilities.
Second, Sara Duterte is the early frontrunner – but far from invincible. In a multi-candidate presidential race, Sara Duterte commands 39.4 percent of the vote, slightly down from 40 percent in April 2025. Leni Robredo follows with 20.9 percent, nearly double her 12 percent support in April 2025. Raffy Tulfo receives 14.2 percent, slightly lower than his 14.9 percent last year. However, 17 percent remain undecided, while 42 percent say they may still change their minds.
More importantly, Sara’s national advantage depends heavily on Mindanao where she receives an astounding 88.5 percent of the vote. This demonstrates regional dominance, but also geographic over-concentration.
Outside Mindanao, the contest looks entirely different.
Robredo leads in the rest of Luzon with 31.27 percent, against Sara’s 20.36 percent and Tulfo’s 16.98 percent.
Metro Manila is practically a three-way tie: Sara at 24.82 percent, Tulfo at 23.29 percent and Robredo at 22.29 percent. Sara leads in the Visayas with 35.8 percent, but Robredo remains competitive at 19.3 percent.
Third, the picture changes in a one-on-one race. In a one-on-one presidential race, Duterte leads Robredo by only 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Note that Sara has already announced her presidential ambitions and received the dividend from it. Leni has not confirmed her candidacy yet.
More revealingly, Robredo defeats Sara in Metro Manila, 49.59 percent to 41.42 percent. She demolishes her in the Rest of Luzon, 55.33 percent to 27.81 percent. Historically, whoever wins Luzon wins the presidency.
Luzon, including Metro Manila, account for 56 percent of registered voters. Robredo therefore leads Sara in areas representing more than half the electorate.
Fourth, Robredo has enormous room to expand. Sara’s support is large but rigid. Her political identity is inseparable from the Duterte name, the excesses and crimes of the previous administration and her family’s bitter feud with the Marcoses. This guarantees her a loyal base, but it also imposes a natural ceiling.
Robredo draws support from several groups, namely, the growing Pink-Yellow bloc; disillusioned Marcos voters; disillusioned Duterte voters; independents searching for good governance leaders; younger voters attracted to reform and moderate Filipinos who reject both Marcos incompetence and Duterte excesses and entitlement.
Robredo also possesses something her rivals cannot manufacture – an established record of honest, compassionate and competent public service. Her Angat Buhay network has allowed her to remain relevant without appearing obsessed with power. While others quarrel over positions and money, Robredo continues working among ordinary Filipinos.
Fifth, the 2028 election may become a referendum on political character. The survey shows that Filipinos are not merely unhappy with individual officials – they are losing faith in the political establishment itself.
The candidate that represents decency without weakness, reform without vindictiveness and competence without dishing out freebies will have the advantage.
The survey does not say that Robredo will inevitably win. It says something more important – that she can win. The Marcos coalition is crumbling. Duterte support is regionally concentrated and on a declining trend. The Pink-Yellow bloc is expanding. The independent middle remains available. Robredo already leads across vote-rich Luzon and is within striking distance nationally.